Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 10

tbetta_bullets
Carnage arrived early with Thursday’s Round 10 team selection, making it a difficult week right the get-go. How did you fare? Who were the Makers and Breakers this week? Have you prepared for the Byes? What trades will you pull this week? All this and more below!

  • Ignorance is Bliss

Seeing as you’ve heard more about the byes (and probably will hear for the next fortnight, at least) from me lately than about the ‘Swannies’ from Paul Roos, I thought I’d give it a brief rest and have a non-MBR look at the DT landscape in Round 10 in this Bullet. It will be brief, however, as we have a lot of Bye obstacles to navigate over the next few rounds.

# Big Dogs Are Back

I’m sure I’m not the only fantasy coach who felt a strange combination of uneasiness and adrenaline when it came to Captain-pickin’ time, with our trusty no-think Captains on the wrong side of history with their scoring prospects in Round 10. Swan was in a rare rut (a mudless sty, if you will) leading in, while Ablett was up against mysterious ex-team forces… For once, we were without the safety net of a clear option.  No stress – Swanny oinked out a 130 on Friday night (a sacrilegious night for the Captaincy), while Ablett showed why he is the only player in the competition who can claim to be truly untaggable – more on him soon.

# YOLO

Round 10 marked another win for the YOLO traders, with Luke Ball bursting his bubble in style with 110 DT points in his third game of the season. That’s a first-up $35k price hike, and a Round 11 BE of just 10 promises more in the near future.

# Statistical Anomalies

There were a few cheeky little statistical surprises this week, including, but not limited, to:

– Koby Stevens did the anti-Scott-Lucas – he notched 10 handballs without a single kick. Chewy on ya boot, mate?

– Cox and NicNat set a new record on Monday Night, collecting a combined 81 hitouts against the Tigers. This smashes the previous record, also set by the pair, when they tapped their way to 75 swats against the Lions last year. Amazingly, the Eagles still lost the clearances in Round 10… go figure.

– It was a big week in the world of hitouts, with Will Minson collecting 57 of his own against the ruck-light Power. That’s the second-best return by a ruckman in a single game since 1982, with Jacobs’ tapwork resulting in 61 last year – interestingly, also against Port Adelaide. A quick aside; Minson is the 3rd-ranked ruckman this year with an average of 91.2, yet he is the 32nd most-popular ruckman. Ouch!

– Jackson Ferguson ($108,500 Fwd/Def) might be the perfect sidekick to novelty rookie Brent Staker with their handy DPP compatibility, but unfortunately Fergie went ahead and became the first rookie to post a negative DT score on debut. Actually, I’m not 100% on that factoid (I’m hoping to hear suggestions), but it doesn’t matter – Ferguson was still horrendous. He allowed the inexperienced Aaron Black to boot four goals on him… in the first quarter! Seriously though, -6 DT points… Best of luck in the VFL.

# Hutchings’ Hatching

The recruitment of Mark Hutchings was marked with a resounding wave of approval from Captain Hindsight, with the mature-age Eagle pumping out yet another 80+ score. It was a risky move bringing in Hutch in DreamTeam, because with no Rolling Lockout, we weren’t sure that he’d even play; the Eagles had a Monday game and he was sitting precariously on that extended bench until after lockout ticked over. Job security issues scared me off massively, but if he can play in Rounds 11 and 13 and produce an average of 60+ over those two rounds, you’d have to call that a massive win for the YOLO traders – especially as he’s already blossomed $83k after his bubble burst this week.

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R10

3. Gary Ablett (140)

So often we’ll scroll over the scores on our Fanfooty or Dream-Stats browsers, and seeing Gary Ablett towards the top of the list evokes about the same reaction as one of Bruce McAvaney ‘s many rhetorical questions. His superhuman feats keep raising the bar so high that we forget to stop and say, “Yep, you’re a pretty special dude”. He’s scored more than 130 points in each of his last four games, which basically makes him my Perma-Captain until he gives me a reason to consider otherwise.

2. Matthew Kreuzer (119)

With Leuenberger issues plaguing the majority of DreamTeams out there, what you chose to do with the lanky Lion was always going to be a big damage modifier this week. If you had the grapes to settle on Kreuzer at his insanely low price of $322k ahead of more-hyped although more-expensive alternatives, then you’re all smiles right about now. That’s three scores above 80 on the trot for the “Kroooooooz”, which puts him firmly in the Premium ruck conversation – pending fitness, of course, which has always been his crux.

1. Mark Blicavs (94)

Thanks to the avalanche of carnage that Thursday Teams brought us, many coaches had to put their Leuenberger plans on the backburner while they plugged holes elsewhere; more often than not, this resulted in relying on Blicavs to defy his effective Aussie Rules ‘age’ and carve out a respectable score. Forget that he has played about as many games of footy as Darren Glass has AFL goals (8, if you were wondering) – the former steeplechaser pulled a ‘postman’ on us and flat-out delivered. 94 points is a career high for the Blitz, bettering last week’s 84 despite sharing ruck duties (albeit in a very part-time sense) with heir-apparent Nathan Vardy. Is that what we should come to expect from Blicavs in the near future?

Honourable Mentions: Stanton (149), S. Selwood (135), Bartel (119), Barlow (118), Ball (110), Macaffer (105), O’Shea (102), Laird (101), S. Jacobs (99), T. Mitchell (98), Whitfield (96), B. Goodes (86), O’Meara (82).

 

Trolling R10

3. Moloney (24, inj)

It’s always harsh dealing out criticism to scores that were injury-affected; but no one said it was fair, and Moloney’s 24-point offering was certainly a week-killer. It’s a shame because Beamer’s owners have been handsomely rewarded of late, with the ever-scowling midfielder averaging 90.6 DT points in the five games leading into Round 10. Unfortunately, he’s now dropped $33k, which drags him further away from fallen Premo targets like Cotchin ($443k), Murphy ($442k) and Jelwood ($422k).

2. Hanley (35)

The downside of being the in-form defender of the competition – you become an opposition priority. We saw it with Hartlett from Round 6 onwards, Birchall since Round 4 and suddenly Hanley has attracted the attention of his offsiders. Macaffar’s star continues to rise in his new tagging role, restricting the Irish Lion to just 35 points – a massive disappointment consider his next worse score this season (when not injured) was an 80.

1. Absentees

I can’t get past my loathing of Waters based on what he’s served for me personally (DNP, DNP, 78, DNP, DNP… My single worst trade, ever. ), so I can understand what others that missed this week, such as Chapman or Beams, have done to their respective coaches. If I could go back in time, I would punch myself in the groin, forget about bye structure and watch a ‘worst-of’ of Beau Waters, including every injury he ever sustained and high bump he ever delivered, then punch myself in the groin again for good measure. We can’t have our Premiums missing in carnage weeks like Round 10, and certainly not in these unforgiving byes.

Dishonourable Mentions:  Seriously… Why depress ourselves any more with the byes upon us?

 

  • Byetrocity

Every team is different, so each coach will need their own private plan of attack for the MBRs, much like dieticians recommend varying diets based on each individual’s needs. The trading protocol is unwritten for Round 11 – last year we had finite trades, so limiting your activity was encouraged so that we could go bang with our 6 trades over the following fortnight. However, the climate has evolved and we have to use our two trades per week or else we lose them – so how do we make our two trades count, keeping in mind that anyone we trade in this week will have a Bye waiting for them just around the corner?

The biggest factor in your Round 11 trading plan will clearly be how many players you have taking to the field this week – so the Thursday Teamsheets will have a massive impact. Based on what’s offered with team selection, here’s what you should be doing with your two trades this week:

17 or less available

This could be a common scenario if Thursday’s teams are particularly cruel to us this week. The obvious solution would be to bring in playing replacements, to ensure that you at least field 18 players this week. The less transparent point to remember is that you need to be careful that the players you bring in aren’t crippling you in Round 12 or 13 – bringing in, say, Brent Stanton this week might feel good in the short-term, but will leave you decimated in the midfield in Round 13 (generally speaking).

For this reason, acquiring a rookie like Tom Mitchell ($108,500 MID, R12) a fortnight early will benefit you greatly in Rounds 11 and 13, but will exhibit negligible downside in R12 as most coaches will have so many R13 MIDs taking the field. The same goes for bringing in a Round 12 DEF like Mackie or Enright, if you are as light on as I am with Defenders next week – you get the point.

Essentially, just make sure the player you bring in this week won’t turn your R11 headache into a R12/13 migraine.

18-19 available

I have a feeling that this will be the order of the week, particularly for those coaches who have structured up with an 8-10-12 or 9-11-11 (or similar) spread and have a Crouch/Rowe/Thurlow/Lonergan type preventing their squad from making full use of that structure.

For these coaches, I like the Body-Trim, Cash-Up tactic for the following reasons:

1. A double-downgrade will leave you with enough cash to go bang-bang next week, with fallen R11 Premiums like Cotchin, Hanley, Birchall, Hartlett, Zorko or even Buddy prime for the picking next week.

2. ‘Tri-Bye’ layers like Rowe, Sinclair, Pittard, Viney and Lonergan are basically dead weight. Instead of just contributing to one week of Bye pain, they are hurting you each week. Cutting these players might not directly help you this week, but will certainly pay dividends over the MBR’s as a whole – it basically turns 3 byes into 1.

3. If you’re trading out a tri-bye player, then your bye structure isn’t getting any worse. I mean, if you wanted Kyle Martin ($103,300 MID, R13) in spite of his R13 bye, then you’re not exactly helping your Bye spread – but given that you’re cutting a non-playing rook anyway, it’s harmless in isolation, and at least it helps you in the other MBRs. That means that you can get the bubble players that you want this week guilt-free, whether that be Hrovat ($107,200 MID) a week early, or T. Mitchell, or Tom Nicholls ($108,500 RUC, R13) – whoever.

NOTE: Just remember, that if you cash up this week to Double Upgrade next week, then you need to grab Hrovat this week or not at all.

20+ available

I’m guessing very few coaches will be in this situation, but you’re in an enviable position if you are. The way I see it, your trades this week are simple – get in Round 11 bye players… Even for someone playing this week.

The thinking here is that if you’re breathing easy this week, you’re in for one hell of an asthma attack in either R12 or R13 or both. Or you have had an insanely good run with injury and form! Either way, preparing for next week is the way to go, even if it means forfeiting that ‘extra players’ advantage you have over the rest of the competition with the Best 18 system this week, if only to ensure you limit the chance of a donut in the future.

The Round 11 players you should be considering are rookie-priced players like Hrovat, Grimley ($108,500 RUC) and Hitchcock ($132,600 RUC). Of course, you run the risk of these rookies being omitted after their bye, which would be a backfire of epic proportions. I don’t see that being a problem for Hrovat though, given the Bulldogs injuries and bigger-picture situation (ie. Youth policy), so you can feel reasonably confident pulling the trigger on that one. Don’t be afraid to bring in a fallen Premium early either – it has less risk factor, because we can be very confident that they’ll actually play – just consider it an early upgrade!

What will you be doing with your trades this week? Do you have a groovy trading strategy that I’ve overlooked? Let us know in the comments!

 

  • Triple Trouble

I first quantified the concept of a ‘Triple Trouble back in the Round 3 Bullets, and I think it’s about time we checked in with our charges. I love these types of players, because they don’t rely on just one source of points, like Sam Mitchell (Disposals), Travis Cloke (Marks and Goals) or Jack Redden (Tackles). Here are the candidates we have from 2013 so far – the number preceding their name denotes their possession rate rank:

TT Yellow

This is why Kornes continues to go under the radar. The man is a statistical beast, averaging career-highs in both disposals and tackles at the ripe-old age of 30. It’s no wonder he has only produced one score under 99 with these types of numbers, and it’s also this even spread and consistent production that has him at just 5% ownership competition-wide – we’re too slow to adjust!

TT Orange

This is the second-stringers – the class of players who are just shy of reaching the dizzying heights of statistical sainthood. It’s no surprise to see my two most-desired midfield upgrade targets in Barlow and Stanton up there, while the resurgence of Montagna and the promise of Masten in 2013 make more sense when you consider these raw numbers. You’ll notice that all nine of these statistical wet dreams average above 99 points per game – which is more than established ‘Premiums’ like Deledio, Boyd, Murphy, JPK,  J. Selwood and Sidebottom this year.

TT Red

There’s probably been too much time off the clock for this ‘red’ group to seriously contest the Triple Troublemakers, but they’ve certainly filling the right columns. Dyson Heppell’s raw numbers explain why he’s the second-highest averaging defender (to play more than 6 games) so far this year, despite very little hype surrounding his production thus far. The real surprise on this list is Dion Prestia however; the diminutive playmaker that’s truly having a third-year breakout right on our front lawn, yet no-one’s home… If he earns Defender status next season, I’ll be strongly considering him based on these mouth-watering numbers!

 

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

Tweets non-trade

You’d be crazy to not trade this week! Even if you have a full squad playing this week (ie. no tri-bye players), then you can always prepare early for the R12 and R13 byes in the fashion I mentioned above.

For instance, trading someone like Nick Kommer ($249k, 49BE, R13) out for Tom Mitchell won’t help you this week so much, but it will alleviate any pressure you have with Round 13 Midfielders; while also getting Kommer out at very close to his peak price, thanks to his 36-point score this week.

 

Tweets eg trades

I love these trades!

Moloney –> Hrovat doesn’t affect your bye situation (same bye round & position), but makes you $275k that can be put to great use next week. Similarly, Evans –> T. Mitchell makes you another $185k, but more importantly, you’re keeping that balanced 10/10/10 structure as you say.

You should now have enough cash to double upgrade next week, so all those fallen R11 Premiums I mentioned earlier are in the firing line – where Round 12 rookies like Daw, Matt Jones and even Thurlow will be the perfect omissions.

 

Tweets rook mids

Great question, and a very relevant one as many coaches will notice that these are the most promising rookies coming into their first price change over the next couple of weeks – at least by the simple break-even measure.

I think you have to settle for two, for a combination of factors. Firstly, you’ll need to grab Martin before his bye to get him at basement price – a massive no-no for me. Secondly, Martin’s hindered by the Round 13 bye, in which many of us will already be struggling to field a full side. And lastly, there are so many cheap Premium options on the market, and two midfield downgrades should give you plenty of cash to grab a couple of them over the coming weeks.

 

Tweets TTY

I was lucky enough to fluke an 8/10/12 (before trades this week) bye structure, despite only turning my attention to the byes a few weeks ago – so that’s a small win for Tbetta Than You. However, on the flip side, I have doubtful players like Rowe, Daw, Lonergan, Crouch, Thurlow and friggen Waters to deal with, which means I’ll still struggle to field a full side this week. I also have a disturbing lack of R11 midfielders, which means that even if Crouch plays this week, I could potentially have a player unaccessible on my mid bench – not cool.

TTY R11 pre trades

As a result, I’ll likely be following the ’17 or less available’ methodology I outlined earlier. I can make small amount of coin as well as preventing a R11 donut by bringing in Gorringe/Nicholls for Rowe, while Lonergan –> Hrovat helps my situation in future weeks; or I could give even up on Waters for another R12 Premium Defender – although I’m not fully convinced with any of the available options.

For me, it’s all about getting these tri-byes team anchors out of my side, while avoiding donuts this week and trying to improve the structure of my squad for future weeks.

That’s all from me this week folks! The byes are a messy time, you if have any questions or queries, comment below or hit me up on Twitter at @Tbetta9. Good luck for stage one of the byes!

95 Comments

  • Been waiting patiently all day for this article. Good read before bed. Keep it up.

  • No wonder it was so late buddy, there was just too much information to be crammed in so you had to release it on Thursday ;)

    By the way, you may have an 8/10/12 bye structure, but you’re team looks likely to struggle during the byes anyway because of guys with bad JS/injuries and also because you’re spread of bye players for each week isn’t even.

    With your team as it stands you’re probably only looking at 17 or 18 (depending on whether Daw plays, and also assuming that Thurlow gets a call up for Geelong and Waters fails his fitness test) this week, 19 next week and a pitiful 16 in round 13 (assuming that by then, Waters is back.

    I’d agree on this weeks trades, Lonergan and Rowe/Daw have got to be on the chopping block. Hrovat is a good one to get and Nicholls is the obvious choice in the ruck. Next week make sure you get in Barlow and get rid of Waters if he isn’t back by then (I’m sure you already know what you’re doing, I’m just in the habit of giving advice already).

    Great read, and it was interesting to see the structure of your team. Good luck over the byes.

    • Also, great photo of Blicavs, that was funny.

    • Pretty much hit the nail on the head there. Positional spread wasn’t great, but hat’s the by-product of a conscious decision not to infect my team with players I don’t want just for the Byes – Hargrave gutted my side last year, and Waters/Thurlow have been the only two bye-centric trades I’ve pulled this season, and look where that’s gotten me.

  • Lonergan to Hrovat is solid but I think you’re wasting you’re time bringing in Gorringe/Nicholls.
    1)He will likely only net you 50 points in rd 11. A similar output in rd 12 won’t be in you’re top 18 scores.
    2) If Dixon doesn’t play this week you won’t know which one will be dropped in round 12.
    I think a more pressing issue is your forward line. I would look to get rid of Mayes who is no guarantee of playing in Rds 12 & 13. Trading in a rd 13 player would give you much better structure. If you have the cash I’d recommend Robinson or Cloke otherwise Menzel or Kennedy are riskier downgrades.

    As for my team: Stevenson > Gibbs is a given. If one of Thurlow or Jones is named I will go Neade > Hrovat. Otherwise I will need to bring in a rd 13. I can go up to Watson which I love, but am undecided if Kyle Martin is a must have.

    • What about Lonergan to Mitchell?
      I am considering Daw to Nicholls fro the cash not points, but would you instead go Crouch to Hrovat? (less cash )

    • I dont think he’s bringing in Nicolls for the point, bud. Majak is going to plummet the next time he play, time to cash the big man out

    • I disagree, particularly with Nicholls, who is the one I’m leaning towards.

      1) at this stage, that’s 50 points I won’t have if I don’t bring him in this week – I’m looking at 17 players so far – and that’s being generous. And I can guarantee you, a 76-point score like he had in R10 will certainly make my Best 18 scores next week.

      2) It’s a consideration, but I believe the more ‘pure’ ruckman will keep his spot. Look at the Kreuzer/Vardy situations – Warnock and Blicavs both kept the starting ruck roles when these guys returned from injury, at least initially, so my assertion is that Nicholls will stay in the side (main ruck this week – 27 hitouts vs Gorringe’s 10) while Dixon eases into the side in a forward/back role initially.

      As for Mayes – at least he’s a chance to play over the MBRs (Brisbane’s injury list is massive, plus named as ‘soreness’ a fortnight ago, not simply omitted), whereas Rowe is virtually no chance.

      A R13 forward is a definite consideration, but there is not one promising rookie from that bye week, and the Premiums are thin. Pass.

  • My trade pairing of Waters (DNP, DNP, 78) to Ellis (DNP, DNP) is fairly impressive also. Absolute shocker.

  • So currently after this week’s trades of rockliff to bartel and viney to tom Mitchell
    I have a 12-7-10 bye structure will cop one donut this week possibly 2 with selection but will have 20+ players next two weeks

  • 12-7-11* typo sorry

  • Who is most likely to play after the byes out of nicholls and grimeley? Also who will score better?

    • Nicholls by about a country mile.

      In my opinion, Grimley only got a game because Hale was out (ankle/rested, whatever) in R9, while Bailey was a late withdrawal in R10. You’d think that with Hale/Bailey/Roughead all fit, Grimley isn’t much of a chance after the bye.

      As I said in an earlier comment, I believe the return of Dixon will affect Gorringe more than Nicholls. Still, definitely an element of risk to both.

      • Fingers crossed that Dixon’s back this week so we know who he’s replacing. Having said that, I’d be really surprised if he doesn’t replace Gorringe (both fwds who can ruck, whereas Nicholls is a pure ruck). Especially considering that Gorringe hasn’t troubled the scorers in his two games this year.

  • Great article as always Tbetta. I have exactly the same bye problem as you with JLo and Rowe, and at this stage have decided to go JLo>Ball and Rowe>Nicholls.

    • And I should mention, in selecting Ball I don’t have has many bye 13 players as you.

      • That’s so handy. If I didn’t have R13 problems, Stanton/Ball/Martin would all come into calculations.

  • I am going grimley in for daw. Good or not? I think he will have more chance of getting game time than nicollls because dixon will come back in

    • See my earlier comment – I’d be more worried about how Grimley fits in with a fit Hale/Bailey/Roughead combination.

    • Dixon to replace one of Gorringe/Nicholls with Gorringe looking the more likely to be back in the twos. Grimley way worse than a 50/50.

  • Personally i’m sick of chasing my tail trading rookies that aren’t playing to ones that are but then get dropped (I’m getting left behind by never actually trading out my fattened up cows) so I’m holding Rowe & Viney this week and possibly going wines to hibberd & mayes to cloke (will give me 20 on the field if gawn & thurlow play otherwise i’ll have 18 anyway). Next week i’ll go either thurlow or viney to hrovat & jones to barlow (19 on the field). Week after i’ll ditch someone for mitchell & upgrade another rook.
    Tbetta I would be going Daw to Nicholls instead of rowe as daw is about to lose you 25k and what does it matter if rowe sits at R4.

    • I see that as massively risky – Wines will play next week, while Mayes is always a chance. Viney and Rowe have essentially no chance. Trading out fit/playing players is laced with danger – what happens if you geta couple of injuries this week? Wines will look like a stupid trade, and if Mayes plays, you’re seriously shooting yourself in the foot.

      I understand the nagging desire to trade out fattened cows, but it shouldn’t be at the detriment of JS during the byes.

      As for Daw to Nicholls – would rather Rowe because Daw is still a chance to play over the next few weeks. Apparently he’s in the mix this week after a strong VFL showing, and besides – what’s the harm in having him sit on my bench if he’s not playing? Won’t drop in price. Rowe, on the other hand, is 3 (almost) guaranteed 0’s.

      • I guess taking the non risky approach hasn’t gotten me anywhere so far (still ranked in top 5000 though). If mayes plays next week it will only be bad if cloke doesn’t. Hopefully Gawn is playing but not critical so I can leave rowe at R4. Viney will probably go next week along with Jones. So that means trading Wines to Hibberd will only be bad if Hibberd doesn’t play next week as I should have 6 defenders playing next week anyway. Not really much risk for me. Should have 20 playing this week, 20 next week & probably 21 rd. 13 (including trades along the way) so I can essentially take on a couple of injuies and still field 18 players each week. Anyway thanks for the reply mate and keep up the good work

  • By the way, loved the jabs at Bruce & Paul Roos haha somehow everytime the dockers have been away we get stuck listening to ex players/coaches from the opposition (paul roos against sydney, mark ricciuto against adelaide last weekend)talk up their team and patronise the dockers. I don’t know how they allow such a conflict of interest in the commentary box. I hate listening to Bruce commentate when he just asks stupid rhetorical questions all the time

    • yeah that’s always going to happen. the commentators are ex players so they have allegiences somewhere. just makes the win all the sweeter

  • hmmm makes me think about my trade decisions a little more. Had been looking at getting all 3 of Mitchell, Hrovat and Martin over byes as the majority of my premo targets are rnd 13 players so will have to wait until after byes to get them

  • Dammit, wish I had the balls to pick Hutching this week.

  • wait im confused so does Hrovat price still rise during his bye week?

  • Im one of those rare cases, got 22 on field round 11 + 12(using cox/roughy dpp), but got 17 plus two trades(one for JOM upgrade) to play round with round 13. Go me. All fit players by the way.

  • “Swan was in a rare rut (a mudless sty, if you will)”

    If there was a Golden Stubby for the best line of the week, this would be my nomination. Outstanding as always Tbetta!

  • Moloney to Mitchell
    Rowe to Nicholls?

    Great article Tbetta! :)

  • My planned trades are Moloney > Mitchell and B.Goodes > Malceski (considering Enright, but I have a feeling he will be rested at some stage).

    Then if there are no injuries/other shit, next weeks trades will be along the lines of:
    Lonergan > Hrovat and Berger > Minson/Roughead

  • Awesome Bullets again Tbetta. I have 21 playing this week assuming Jack Hutchins gets named and I’m fairly happy with my structure, you make that sound like a bad thing :( Still haven’t decided what I want to do, but I’m liking the Double Downgrade option.

    • Haha it’s not a bad thing – it’s fantastic!

      But how much would it suck to have 21 players take to the field this week, then only 17 in R12 or R13? That’s why I’d be jumping the gun early on bringing in R11 players now, in case carnage strikes and you can’t patch any R12 or R13 holes with just the two trades.

      • Theoretically possible to have 21/21/22 if everything works out perfectly (after trades). But if I had a situation like this I’d probably aim for 20/22/22 due to possible injuries/omissions in subsequent weeks whereas we know we’ll know who’s named for this week. Moreover, many people are still patching up problems from last week this week, so people will tend to have fewer players on the ground this week than in subsequent weeks.

        If you’re in a 21/20/19 position, then I’d definitely be trading so I only had 19 on field this week.

        • I’m aiming for 21/19/22 if all selections work out perfectly. Been planning my Bye structure for weeks and that’s the way I want it.

          • In an ideal world you’d be able to change that to 21/20/21 or 20/21/21, but it depends on exactly who you’ve got in your team (in other words my “definitely” was a bit too strong). I think as long as you’ve got at least 19 in every week then that’s sufficient and it’s not worth messing up your team structure for an extra safety player.

  • From the outset I thought bugger the byes I would go for a strategy of Mid range premos Gibbs, HepD, Ibbotson, Hodge, McVeigh, Fyfe, Priddis, Bartel, Rocky & Martin together with all the prime rookies/cash cows. Been trading the fatten cows for more rookies and now ready to pounce. In my league so far I have only lost one game but got lucky and played all the lower ranked teams.

    Next trades starting this week with $1.55M in the bank – Mayes > GAJ, Crouch > Swan, Evans > Mitchell, Karnezis > StevieJ, Winderlich > Nick Riewoldt, Suban > Goddard & Dixon > Enright. Will still have approx $250K in the Bank and ultimately hope to end up with 20-22 premos by DT finals.

    Team will be:
    Backs: HepD, Goddard, Ibbotson, Enright, Hibberd, Vlastuin, Ellis, Goodes
    Mids: GAJ, Swan, McVeigh, Priddis, Fyfe, Hodge, Gibbs, O’Meara, Mitchell, Martin (K)
    Rucks: Cox, Clarke, Nicholls & Rowe
    Fwds: Bartel, Dusty, StevieJ, NickVolt, Rocky, JJK, Macaf & Staker

    • $1.55 mill in the bank?? You crazy bro!! Team should be completed well before finals, and even then, that team isn’t complete.

    • Cool story Hansel

      • How does go $%&# yourself sound – my strategy and that all that matters.

    • 1.55M in the bank = 3 premiums worth of scores not on your total

      Your obviously not going for overall ranking :)

      • Yes it does equal 3 premos but I am leading my league and ranked about 40,000. I only ever set out to win my league and not win overall – thats the way I do it :) Be interesting where I finish overall – not half way yet

        • yeah, this sort of strategy can be really good for winning leagues. Take advantage of every rook to build up team value then have a killer team at the end of the year.

          Unless you’ve had a lot of holes to plug, I think you’re selling yourself short if you think you might not have 22 premos by Rd 20.

  • I am lucky to have an 8-10-12 structure going into the byes without any trades done yet. I have absolutely no idea how to utilise this to get the best result over the byes…the maths is just too much for me..can someone tell me how its done pls?

    DEF: Goddard, Harbrow, Gibbs, Shaw, Thurlow, Sierakowski (Hanley, Vlastuin)
    MID: Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Watson, Dangerfield, O’Meara, Evans, VLASTUIN (D.Martin, Moloney)
    RUC: Cox, Gawn (Daw, Rowe)
    FWD: Bartel, Kennedy, Johnson, Macaffer, Naitanui, STAKER (Rockliff, Staker)

    NB Players in BOLD are on the field but have the bye this week.

    • You have two Vlastuins and two Stakers! Impressive!

      Have you traded this week? You don’t need to do any maths, essentially just load up on R11 players after this week.

  • one vlastuin is goodes and one staker is mayes, i havent done any trades, probably will bring in mitchell and martin

    • Looks good, for Moloney and Evans I’m guessing. Then next week double upgrade to R11 premiums, like Barlow or Birchall, or given your ruck stocks, Minson.

    • if my structure now is 8-10-12, should i make the two trades to alter the structure to 9-10-11? is that the most ideal? i can do that by trading out rowe to hrovat and then getting rid of sierakowski, who probably will get dropped, to someone like, mullett?

      • the only reason i mentioned mullett is because he has ridded that 28 from his rolling average. his b/e is 18 and i can afford him with $900 left in the bank. he scored 122 against st kilda the other day and despite his price rise of about $85k already, still presents good value.

  • Personally i cant wait for the byes to start. Post trades i am looking at 21 starters this week, 21 in Round 12 and 20 in Round 13.

    Post trades this week I will have a 8-11-11 structure. (the 22nd player this week is in my rucks that i cannot use)

  • Brilliant article – feeling very much in contro*DOH*!!! …really shouldn’t have said that should I…

  • Great article, tbetta! A question out of curiosity, what are you using to see the byes displayed on your players? I don’t see that on my http://dreamteam.afl.com.au/team page.

  • looking at going Evans to Mitchell this week and Lonergan to Martin or Hrovat? Martin’s actually projected to go up 87,800 but bit worried about his JS? If I’m happy to do a single premo upgrade next week would you suggest going to Martin this week and bringing in Hrovat next?

    • I would not touch Mitchell with a 10 foot pole.

      • I think he means tom Mitchell, who I think everyone should be looking to get in over the next few weeks

      • Douglas for 20k dearer is a better option around that price range.

        • U talking about Ricahrd Douglas? whose 495K.
          He means Tom Mitchell the rookie who scored 98 on debut last week and cost 108K

    • lol, yeah I mean Tom Mitchell. Sorry, thought that was just a given with him being the most traded in player this week:) Sorry.

  • Joe Daniher will debut this week.

    • Will be a good downgrade in a few weeks then when the pickings are slim:)

    • Great! One of the boys (cant remember who) also tweeted that Crouch is going to be named too.

  • Who is the best ruck men to get in that has the bye this round and is under 300,000?

  • This week – Gray – Stanton, Hodge – Hrovat.

    Next week – Rowe – Nicholls, Scotland – Hanley.

    Week after – Crouch – Mitchell, O’Meara – Barlow.

  • Thinking this week Daisy Thomas > Cox or Nic Nat for DPP
    How would be the better option from Cox and Nic Nat? Will Cox likely be rested towards the end of the season?

  • i having a bye structure of 8-8-14 a problem if i next week i trade out to players with round 14 bye to players that had there bye in round 11 and then in round 13 when after the 2 trades will have 12 players with the bye trade 2 more players with the bye to players that have already had the bye so i only have 10 players with the bye in round 13 6 in round 12 and 8 this week

  • Ok, first time I’ve posted my team as it’s the first time this year I can’t quite settle on the best trades for my team.

    B: Godd, Hanley, Duffield, Goodes, Terlich, Staker, (Ellis, Thurlow)
    C: Swan, GAJ, Danger, JPK, Watson, Vlas, O’Mearer (Kommer, Viney)
    R: Cox, Blicavs (Luey, Currie)
    F: Bartel, SJ, Buddy, Cloke, JJK, Rockliff (MacCaffer, Karnezis)

    394k bank.

    Have already done LeCras -> Bartel, what should my other trade be?

    • whoops wrong page :/

      • Don’t lose sight of the general aim, which is to downgrade those rookies to new ones, or upgrade them to premos. Post it again in the my team and there’ll be a few of us to go into more detail, surely.

  • Should u go for stanton and have 18 + 2 trades in round 13 or go for jack and have 19 + 2 trades I’m round 13

  • Mark Blicavs (Managed) – WTF?!!!

    Great article as usual….My planned trades are;

    This Round – Burgoyne -> Malceski, Crouch -> T. Mitchell (duh!)
    Next Round – Burger -> Grimley, Evans -> Barlow
    Round 13 – Macaffer -> Stanley, Kerridge -> Riewoldt

    Fingers crossed there’s no massive injuries – otherwise I’m stuffed!!