Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 3

tbetta_bullets

  • Fire in the Hole

Round 3 scoring was like a war-time explosion, where the better scores came from the teams that avoided most of the shrapnel. We had untimely injuries, underperforming rookies, unwarranted faith holds and typically terrible trade-ins attacking our squads this week, which always seems to be the nature of a crucial Round 3. As a result, ‘Par’ was around 2000 this week, which would have earned you a weekly ranking of around 15,000. Yep, that’s the high standards we set for ourselves here at DT Talk.

So, what can we take out of Round 3? Our issues were mostly concerned with Old School versus New Age trading strategies coming into the Round – so which won? It’s early days yet, but YOLO-style trading has definitely paid off thus far, with many coaches making cash as well as a few points with the trades they pulled this week. One man in particular typified the potential that this fresh trading mentality possesses – and he’s first up in this week’s Polling section…

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R3

3. Justin Westhoff (140)

In theory, I really liked the idea of trading in Westhoff. Obviously, after scores of 100 and 154 in the first two rounds, he was going to make us some serious coin. Secondly, most of us had players like Zorko (disappointing) and Karnezis (not playing) that warranted fixing, so you wouldn’t be going out of your way by jumping on the Hoff. And finally, he averaged almost 80 points for the last two seasons – which meant that you’d expect to earn some points while you waited for his price to plateau. Now this is the key, and is the main distinction between himself and someone like Charlie Dixon (59.4 avg in 2012) or Tom Liberatore (77.7 avg in 2012, but in a tougher midfield market), other popular money-makers this week that just didn’t have the same runs on the board.

In reality, I vomited in my mouth a few times when I realised I actually traded someone like Westhoff into my side – it just goes completely against every lesson we’ve learnt from playing DT over the last half a decade.

History will go on to show that The Hoff dominated in the Showdown; kicking a somewhat wasteful 4.4 four to go with 24 touches for a massive 140-point score. Not only did he shoot up $68.8k this week (3rd highest increase of all players, including rookies), but he still has a BE of -20 for Round 4. To put the cherry on top, he’s also the highest-averaging player this season with 131.5 DT per game, 5 points clear of breakout midfielder Andrew Swallow. What a start to the year…

2. Ollie Wines (126)

I’m not going to make a stupid ‘Wines’ pun like every other writer out there – I’m just going to back off and let him breathe. He deserves nothing but praise in the meantime, scoring a huge 126 points in a game that befit a 150-game veteran than a mere 3rd-gamer. Given his start, most coaches had him on the field, bestowing us not only the pleasure of adding an unexpected ton to our weekly total, but also delivering an incredible $91.3k profit.

1. Dustin Martin (144)

I jumped off Martin just hours before the Round 1 lockout, and let’s just say I’m regretting it a little this week. Besides the superhuman effort from Westhoff, Dusty has the highest average of any forward-eligible player with 105 points per game. This is mostly thanks to a coming-of-age 144-point score this weekend, a game where he displayed possibly his first sustained 4-quarter effort. If he can do that each week, watch out.

Honourable Mentions: S. Selwood (142), L. Hodge (135), D. Cox (132), K. Cornes (128), A. Swallow (123), T. Goldstein (114), Josh J Kennedy (113), P. Hanley (108), N. Fyfe (108), H. Hartlett (107), D. Roberton (102), A. Mullet (98), A. Monfries (90), M. Jones (86), C. Sinclair (68).

Trolling R3

3. Second Year Stars

I’ve written about the Rockliff Effect (where a player regresses significantly the year after posting their first premium-quality fantasy season) in the Bullets a few times this pre-season, so obviously I am aware of the phenomenon and try to avoid it like Scott Lucas did his right boot. So how can it be that I picked both two second-year players in Greene and Zorko in my initial squad?! I must be the fantasy equivalent of Brad Scott, because I’ve been suckered into picking two players suffering from a high dosage of the very infection I swore to avoid.

Greene had just 49 in Round 3, which puts him a whopping 43 points below his 2012 average of 96 points per game. Likewise, Zorko’s 51 has his 2013 average 35 points in arrears of his debut season. Horrible stats. That’s the trouble with having a break-out season; the opposition notices, and you’re suddenly copping more attention than ever before.

2. Walking Wounded

As a community we cop injuries on the chin every week, but it’s normally pretty rare to have more than 2 or 3 fantasy-relevant casualties in the same weekend. Enter Charlie Dixon (red-vested for 66, ankle), Travis Varcoe (12, shoulder), Jonathon Patton (15, ACL), and Matthew Kreuzer (21, broken thumb). The latter three were all above 15% ownership before the round kicked-off, meaning that a large chunk of trades will be falling under the ‘LTI’ bracket this week.

1. Andrew Carrazzo (45)

Thank God Carrazzo wasn’t granted defender eligibility this season, because a lot more coaches would be livid at the scores he has dished up so far. A 58-point average so far puts him miles back on what he’s achieved fantasy-wise for the past six seasons (averaged 82 or more per game each year), which suggests that his scoring while tagging under Malthouse might not be what it once was. Those who have him in Draft Leagues are justified feeling cheated where Carrots is concerned.

Dishonourable Mentions: J. Watson (65), J. Pittard (28), J. O’Meara (54), J. Selwood (66), M Pavlich (49), Ja. Roughead (67), K. Jack (59), G. Ablett (105).

  • Triple Trouble

Over the past couple of years, some of the biggest break-outs/fantasy surprises have been Tom Rockliff in 2011, as well as Shane Tuck and Brock McLean in 2012. What do they have in common? They all averaged the Triple Trouble. That’s when a player notches at least 25 disposals, 5 marks and 5 tackles in a game – obviously, to do that over a whole season is a remarkable feat. To put that in perspective, scoring the most basic Triple Trouble (25,5,5) with a K:H of 1 – that’s 98 DT points right there.

Triple Trouble 2011-12
*Note: 2012 averages exclude subbed games where player played less than 3Q.

This got me thinking – who’s going to be that surprise packet this year? No-one saw Tuck or McLean coming… Maybe the Triple Trouble could help us unearth the next underrated DT goldmine?! Below is a summary of the players who are currently averaging that Triple Trouble, guys that aren’t too far off it, and even a few other players that I believe have what it takes.

Triple Trouble R3

Most of the guys on that list are popular fantasy players already, but there are a few surprises. Andrew Swallow is definitely one that has come on in leaps and bounds this season, so it’s no surprise that he’s averaging the Triple Trouble. We all know Stanton is a tireless worker, so it’s no surprise to see him filling up the stat sheet. Hodge has just played the two games, so we’ll wait to we see another game or too before we get excited.

No, the big shock on the list is Pearce Hanley, the only non-mid to even get close. He’s just scraping in, and it’s doubtful that he’ll keep it up, but as a Defender this is a great indicator of scoring ability and definitely puts him on the radar for our first Backline upgrade.

Brad Ebert, Callan Ward, Travis Boak and David Armitage are a handful of players who haven’t scored at a Super Premium level until now and therefore have snuck under the radar, but can certainly bridge the gap if they sustain these kinds of numbers. What do you think? Who’ll be the Brock McLean or Shane Tuck of 2013? Let us know in the comments!

  • Halfway Harrys

Much has been said about Dustin Martin’s ‘ability’ (read: brain-exploding-ly frustrating habit) to get off to a great start, only to fade out of games. This is certainly reflected in his fantasy scoring – I don’t know how many times I’ve fist-pumped to Dusty’s 60+ half time score, only to scream the TV down while he crawls to 80 by the completion of the match.

1st Half Dusty

As I said in the Polling section, Dusty played his first 4-quarter fantasy game this week, slamming the breaks on an alarming trend that was beginning to become his legacy. Is this a one-off or can he sustain his considerable influence for an entire game, on a regular basis? Only time will tell. What I’m more concerned about, is whether Dangerfield is becoming the 2013 Halfway Harry… Check out his stats to the right:

1st Half DangerAs a Dangerfield owner, this really worries me. Basically, he has to score 70 points in the first half to top the ton at this rate. We’ll keep an eye on this in the coming weeks, but seriously Danger – run a game out big fella! That 66% of score coming in the first half is eerie consistent…

Have you noticed any Halfway Harrys this season? You know the deal – use the comments section below!

  • Bubble Boys & Benched Bucks

Last week our big trade dilemma came down to philosophy – do we take the old school trading approach and trade in a reliable Keeper (points), or do we take risks with bolters on the bubble for a couple of weeks (cash)? This week, my trading mentality is conflicted between two similarly polarising strategies – to go for the cash, or bank the points while we can.

Specifically, I’m talking about how much cash we have in the kitty. I know a lot of coaches traded in Rookies/Bolters (missed rooks, Moloney, Westhoff, JJK) before their price-changes, many of them for mid-pricers or Premiums (K. Stevens, Lucas, Toumpas, Greene, Zorko, Danger, Karnezis, etc.) and therefore bank $150k+ in cash. Obviously, that’s the right call as getting in the best rookies and fixing up your big mistakes is more important in Round 3 than having as much firepower on the ground as possible.

But with rookies like Terlich (-70BE), Crouch (-61BE), Sinclair (-53BE), and Rowe (-63BE) about to burst, what do we do? Take the rookies while they’re on offer to generate as much cash as possible, or do what we’ve in previous season and try and turn that cash into points as soon as we can – such as a Karnezis à Chapman instead of Rowe/Sinclair, or Kommer à Montagna instead of Crouch, for instance?

I have a feeling that whichever track you wander down while greatly influence the fate of your squad over the entire season. I tried crunching the numbers, but it requires a lot of assumptions and there’s just a such a wide range of possibilities that it became pointless – it will have to be a case of trial and error, then…

If I’ve lost you or you have no idea what I’m talking about, take my personal situation as an example. I have $199k sitting in the back from previous downgrades. Now, Kommer ($141k – suspended for two weeks) will go to Crouch ($109k), leaving me with a $231k surplus before my second trade. I then have two options:

1. Old School Methodology

Trade Karnezis ($239k) up to a Premium like Dustin Martin, leaving me with petty change in the bank but with a stronger on-field unit. Obviously, I miss out on a sure-thing cash-cow like Sinclair or Terlich.

Bubble Trades 1

2. The Stock Market Approach

Trade Majak Daw ($109k) for Sinclair ($105k), leaving me with a worrying $234k in the kitty for possible upgrades next week. The obvious disadvantage is that it doesn’t make my team any better in the short-term – as Sinclair will be coming off my bench regardless – not to mention that I’d still have a $239k hack sitting on my bench doing nothing.

Bubble Trades 2

As I type this out, I find myself leaning towards option two. There are still many more numbers to crunch and scenarios to envisage, but money is fast-becoming the theme for 2013 so I’m thinking the “short-term pain for long-term gain” approach could be a winner… What do you think? Will you focusing on the dollar signs, or banking the points while you can? Let us know in the comments!

 

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

TT3 tardesMan, that’s tough. I guess this is what all the extra trades are for! If it were me, I’d trade your most valuable asset in Kreuzer as a priority, as you simply can’t have all that cash rotting on your bench. Goldstein is a great option at a similar price, while Leuenberger is a big consideration from a value perspective if you don’t already have him.

After that, it comes down to how much cash you have and what options are open to you in the forward line. I’d go either Varcoe to a Premium (will require around $250k), or Patton down to a Sinclair/Rowe on the bubble and turn a bad injury into a positive money-making venture. Obviously, the second option would put you in a good position to upgrade Varcoe next week. Good luck whichever way you go!

 

TT3 truly importat

As I alluded to earlier, it’s probably the opposite – Rookies are more important than ever! With so many trades, there’s now an element of who can make cash the quickest so that they can attain ‘complete’ teams as soon possible.  Obviously, Rookies are the easiest and most reliable sources of cash we have, so farming them where and when we can has become even more crucial to our overall success.

The Westhoff/Moloney/Dixon situation was unique as their first price changes were compounded after two big weeks, making trading them in more than double as effective as it would usually be (as any big score they get from now on will raise their price before you can buy them). Obviously, when there are no rookies on the bubble and no LTI’s to worry about, guys like Westhoff come into calculations, but it a significantly less effective trade than bringing in that rookie just before they start to fatten up.

 

TT3 upgrading

Following on from the previous tweet, it’s never too early. However, new rookies definitely take a priority, generally speaking, so maybe this week isn’t the best time to bring in a Premium? You should always be looking to improve your team, so whenever there are no promising rookies about to experience their first price fluctuation – that’s the time to pounce. This could be as early as next week!

  • Next Week

That’s all for the Bullets this week, besides one huge consideration – who’s playing the Demons?! He says as his mouse hovers over the trade button…. Unfortunately, it’s just the GWS Giants. Toby Greene has been a massive disappointment to date so I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot stick, unless it was hard and repeatedly in the head.

Callan Ward, on the other hand, has been in excellent form, averaging a shade over the ton. He’s a similar type of player to Scott Selwood, a tough, hard-working inside mid, and given what Scooter did to the Demons (142 DT points), Ward is my bet to have a day out. At $503,400 with a BE of 79, there are worse options out there – and at 0.6% ownership, he’d certainly be unique!

Until next week.

296 Comments

  • Thoughts on a trade for the week. One is K.Mitchell–> Crouch

    Unsure whether with the next one to go option a or b

    a) J.Lamb (i know)–> Neade or Dwyer

    b) M.Wright –> The Hoff

    Its the age old story, do i trade to make money now and sacrifice a few points in the meantime or tade for points and less money in the long run???

    • And I have to say it! Why the hell do you even have Lamb?

      • brain fade, had him sittng in my team for price and bye round and forgot to get rid off him before round 1 for a playing rookie

  • You need to make money or you will get left behind later in the season as everyone upgrades and you have no cash to follow!
    This will be the LAST chance to board the Hoff train though!
    Tough call!
    Id go for Lamb to Neade.
    The difference between Lamb and Hoff point wise wont be much different to Neade and Wright. In fact since Lamb is not playing the Neade/Wright will score you more!

    • cheers! that was my thoughts too but everyone seems to be talking up the hoff so much. Scored 2092 with a couple of misfiring premos last week so im not overly desperste for the extra 20-50 points westoff would have provided

      • and next week we all to talking about jumping off the Hoff train and onto the Buddy express or the Stevie shuttle!
        And he just CANNOT keep up these scores. he will get locked down soon. might go ok this week against GC but then its WCE, NMFC and RICH. he will get targeted. he has too.
        im trying to convincing myself here too cos if he tops the 100 again I will be reluctant to trade him!

        • i would laugh if everyone traded him in this week and then rory thompson or matty warnock held him to 50 (doubtful) but yeah very unlikely to score so well against WCE, North and Richmond

  • OK… Do I ditch Zorko for any other premo before he loses any more money? I held him in good faith instead of jumping on the Hoff and it has bitten me now…

    Or focus on getting out Pittard and Frost for 2 performing rooks about to fatten up (Terlich and Hutchins)?

    • PS. I’m not thinking Zorko to the Hoff…. It’d be Bartel or someone like that…

    • Why get rid of pittard, sure he had a bad game but he plays and won’t score that badly often whereas frost is a chance to get dropped. Zorko to whoever you want. Westhoff will go up another 50k if you want to grab that cash otherwise cloke or a premo. Basically frost out if he isn’t named and zorko.

  • Ditch Zork and Pittard. Get Terlich and another Premo! Frost (J) will fatten reasonably well next few weeks.

    • Which Premo though?

      I have generally never trusted Bartel… Stevie J is awesome but in my experience, not the most consistent scorer… I alreaady have Rocky, Buddy, Cox and Monfries as well as JJK.

      • u dont trust Bartel? the man has averaged between 95-110 since 2006. he has played 20 or more games in all but 1 of those seasons…is a very good option.

  • Consider Cloke. Looks back to 2011 best where he ran all around the world marking the ball every 10 seconds. Plus $70,000 less then Jimmy, averaging more, saving you money for later!

    • I should I jump on the Martin train? (I feel sick just saying that)

      • oh that is a risky call! he will probably die on his ass this week after that effort. I have him so have no choice to ride the rollercoaster with him.
        Risk! Got COLL, FRE and GEEL next so can’t see great scores!

  • Stuck with what two trades to do this week
    Current options are as follows
    Patton to Mayes, Sincler, Rowe etc.
    Pavlich to Westoff or Goldstein
    Duffield to somebody
    Mitchell/Kommer to Crouch

    Here is my current team so you can look at alternative options

    DEF: B. Goddard, B. Gibbs, D. Heppell, P. Duffield, J. Pittard C. Heath (B. Goodes, L. Stevenson)
    MID: D. Swan G. Ablett jnr, J. Watson, P. Dangerfield, B. Moloney, O. Wines, K. Mitchell, J. O’Meara (J. Viney, N. Kommer)
    RUC: D. Cox, M. Leuenberger (M. Daw, M. Blicavs)
    FWD: M. Pavlich, T. Rockliff, M. Wright, D. Martin, J. Kennedy, J. Patton (B. Macaffer, S. Dwyer)
    CASH LEFT: $5,600

    Currently have gone Patton to Rowe and Mitchell to Crouch. Now have $110,700

    • That would be the trade I’d go for… Pav surely will come good…

      I just ditched Zorko after running out of patients with him and have decided to swing Rowe to the FWD line and get in Sinclair into the RUC… Time will tell…

      • That wasnt what we discussed!
        Nic Nat will dispose of Sinclair soon! but with 2 trades a week you might be ok!

    • Patton, Kommer and Mitchell all 0 this week. Mayes can wait to next week. Like the 2 youve gone with. makes most sense i think. Pavlich will be back. No panic. Plus Rowe and Crouch will make you $100,00 straight up.

      • Cheers guys, might go somebody to Mayes next week, don’t know who, Kommer will be back week after. Daw must be close after going very well in VFL. Maccaffer must be in same boat

  • Who will score most this week – Rowe, Blivcas, Maccaffer or Dywer

    • Well Ive said it before! If I knew the answer to that type of question I’d be driving an FJ cruiser!
      My money is on Rowe. Kreuzer out. Depends if Warnock comes in. If he does then i might sway to Dwyer – as long as it is dry!

    • Dwyer

  • 1.Karnezis- Mayes
    Kommer – Ward
    2.Kommer-Hodge
    Mitchell-Crouch
    3.Kommer-Crouch
    karnezis-Martin
    4.Kommer-Hodge
    Karnezis-Sinclair

    • Kommer-Crouch
      karnezis-Sinclair is another one that i’m leaning towards because a DPP with Rowe

  • Thoughts on
    Carrazzo–> Wines

    Zorko–> Martin

  • Option 1: (Less points, more money gain)
    Armstrong > Hanley
    Kruezer > Rowe/Sinclair

    Option 2: (Less money gain, more points)
    Armstrong > Mullet (DPP with goodes)
    Kruezer > Westoff – bit late but will get me heaps of points and some money (DPP with Cox)

  • I am thinking one of the two:

    Option 1 (more points):
    Plowman to Terlich
    Kreuzer to Goldstein

    Option 2 (more cash):
    Plowman to Birchall
    Kruezer to Rowe/Sinclair

    Thoughts?

    Plowman hasn’t generated the scores or cash I want (am playing him on the field) so think he needs to move along – am just glad I got rid of Varcoe last week.

  • I was faced with the same dilemma last week – cash or points. Was trading out Mitchell and wasn’t sure whether to take the long term view and bring in Jones for the cash collection it would bring, keeping in mind he would therefore sit on the bench and Viney would come into the 22. That is the choice I would have definately made last year.
    Instead, I traded in Parker who earned me an additional 50 odd points and gave me 5 out of 5 wins. Had I gone the other way I would have lost 3 of those league games.
    Not only that but Parker also gained me plenty of extra dollars and may even end up as m8.

    • Yeah to be honest I am leaning towards the more points option. I have a few other cash generators around and I would like to make amends for a horror round.

  • Going to trade out the kreuz from my team, I went Rowe because I think he has better job security than Sinclair, will sinclair play once nic nat returns?

  • thoughts on getting rid/keeping libba as i brought him in last round and he DISAPPOINTED.

  • should i upgrade whitfield to a premo or wait another couple of weeks?

    • Is he on the bench or field for you? I wouldn’t cop his score if he was on the field. Would consider getting crouch if you haven’t already or wait a week for Mayes.

  • Who can i replace kreuzer with no one over 490k

  • Who would be better out of Westhoff or Martin?
    Taking into account both points and $ making…

    • Westhoff because he vs’s gc and should gain even more cash then trade out for a jet

  • Zorko to lecras?save some coin,and lecras is about to explode

  • Who will be tagging Ablett this weel do you reckon guys. With this hand injruy maybe affecting his game, and someone like Cornes possibly tagging him, I’d rather jump off now than suffer a score around 100 for someone at 600k, when Fyfe pumps them out at 450ish

    • Go ahead and jump off, while the rest of us enjoy his 130+ score

      • Not so sure mate, small ground + decent tag = low score. He’s not had a fantastic start yet against some mid->low table contenders. Fyfe has less chance of being tagged with Pavlich back and already copping a tag last week. I need to have a look into it, but Warnie’s already jumped off, and even if Ablett gets 130, I will grab more points if I upgrade Pittard (Average 50) to Birchall (Average 100)

        Thats going to give me 50 points as opposed to Gaz.

  • Karnezis-Sinclair
    Kommer-A.Swallow

  • Why is that moron for ‘AFL Fantasy market watch’ advising keeping Zorko?
    http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-17/afl-fantasy-market-watch-round-three

  • should i go danger-bartel and then swap martin in mid and bartel into my forward line

  • Should I stay (Gaj/Danger) or should I go now (Hoff)?

    • Is Hoffman going to keep this up or is it a perfect example of a flash in the pan?

      • His average is good the last couple of seasons, maybe this is the year he steps up, brought him in last week and will stay unless he stinks it up.

  • Patton>Rowe/Sinclair

    Zorko> Hoff/StevieJ/Buddy/Trav/Daisy/Dusty? who???

    • hoff then maybe trade to buddy in 2 weeks or so, thats my plan anyway

    • I’d probably only be considering Westhoff or Martin from that list. If Martin, you probably need to ride him for awhile, if Westhoff you can hop off board once he reaches his ceiling price if needed.

  • not sure what to do this week –

    1st trade is definatly T.Varcoe to The Hoff.

    2nd is either karnezis/zorko to m.lecras (who isnt getting much mention on here) that should make my onfeild team stronger and net some profit.

    or

    kommer to crouch which might net more profit but he will only sit on my bench like kommer did

    What do you guys think???

    cheers, mikey.

    • I think you probably have to fix Zorko up first at this stage. Although Crouch will make you some $’s, you also need need the extra points Zorko is not providing at the moment.

  • Happy with all my money making rookies so a fix-up trade and a possible YOLO trade this week.

    Zorko out, Westhoff in.

    Ablett out, Luke Hodge (99, 117, BE 1) or Luke Parker (85, 115, 112, BE 4) in??

    Both worth ~$390k, will leave me $260k in the bank for an upgrade trade in the next week or two.

  • ah tbetta!!!

    know this is a few days late but that’s cos I print out your bullets to read on the train home (Freo line) …

    “I’m not going to make a stupid ‘Wines’ pun like every other writer out there – I’m just going to back off and let him breathe.” – that gets a ‘champagne comedy’ call in my book! :)

    p*ss funny mate – I chuckled out loud on the train and people looked at me funny like i had ‘issues’!!! ;p

    good work mate! :)