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Inside the Numbers

Inside the Numbers – Rd. 11

Pete looks at the numbers from each club.

For those chasing a high overall rank the next 3 weeks are considered highly valuable in order to make a significant move, for those chasing league titles there will be a completely differently strategy involved in ensuring that you start to set up the strongest possible line-up for Finals.

Those that remain patient & make sound trade decisions over the Bye period will automatically have an advantage, short term decisions rarely work out in the long term to finish the H&A season.

Here are some quick grabs from Round 11.

Article by @aflratingsPete

PLAYER TRENDS

Adelaide

Rory Laird has scored 100pts or more in 45.5% of games this season (2018: 70.0%), he has averaged 101.1pts from his last 8 games.

Brisbane

Daniel Rich averaged 96.7pts from his opening 7 games of the season, he has averaged 80.8pts from his last 4 games.

Carlton

Matthew Kreuzer scored a season high 122pts in Round 11, it was the first time he has scored 100pts or more in a game this season.

Collingwood

Scott Pendlebury averaged 90.2pts from his opening 5 games of the season, he has averaged 116.5pts from his last 6 games (Season Ave: 104.5).

Essendon

Zach Merrett has scored 100pts or more in 8 consecutive games, he has averaged 120.4pts over the same period.

Fremantle

Nat Fyfe has averaged 112.5pts from his last 6 games, he has scored 100pts or more in 70.0% of games this season.

Geelong

Tom Stewart averaged  102.7pts from his opening 7 games of the season, he has averaged 82.8pts from his last 4 games.

Gold Coast

Jarrod Witts has averaged 110.5pts from his last 2 games, he has scored 100pts or more in 36.4% of games this season (2018: 31.8%).

GWS Giants

Josh Kelly has scored 100pts or more in 100.0% of games this season (2018: 50.0%), he has averaged 128.0pts from his last 4 games.

Hawthorn

James Worpel has averaged 99.0pts from his last 3 games, between Rounds 6-8 he averaged 82.7pts (Season Ave: 90.5pts).

Melbourne

Clayton Oliver has scored 100pts or more in 63.6% of games this season, he scored 100pts or more in 56.0% of games last season (Incl. Finals).

Nth Melbourne

Jack Ziebell has scored 100pts or more in 4 of his last 6 games (2019: 45.5%), he scored 100pts or more in 4 games last season (22 Games).

Port Adelaide

Robbie Gray has scored 100pts or more in his last 2 games (2 Game Ave: 111.0), he did not score 100pts in his previous 6 games averaging 70.7pts over the same period.

Richmond

Dustin Martin has scored 100pts or more in 3 consecutive games, he has averaged 116.3pts over the same period.

St Kilda

Rowan Marshall scored a career high 126pts in Round 11, he has averaged 17.8 Disposals & 26.4 Hit Outs from his last 5 games.

Sydney

Luke Parker has averaged 117.7pts from his last 3 games, he has scored 100pts or more in 54.5% of games this season (2018: 40.9%).

West Coast

Andrew Gaff has averaged 117.6pts from 9 games this season, he has scored 120pts or more in 55.6% of games (2018: 31.6%).

Western Bulldogs

Josh Dunkley has scored 100pts or more in 4 of his last 5 games, he has averaged 117.4pts over the same period.

FIVE TAKEAWAYS

1. Between Rounds 1-8 GWS averaged 1616.6pts (Rank 5), in the last 3 weeks the Giants have averaged 1886.7pts (Rank 1).

2. Carlton have conceded 400 Disposals or more in 4 of their last 5 games (2019 Average Disposals AGA: 400.7, Rank 18), in order they play West Coast, Richmond, St Kilda & Geelong in their final 4 games of the H&A season.

3. Brad Crouch has averaged 125.0pts in his last 3 games, the Crows play GWS in Round 12. The Giants have not conceded 100pts to an opposing midfielder in the last 3 weeks.

4. Bachar Houli has averaged 127.8pts from his last 4 games, he has averaged 35.0 Disposals & 7.3 Marks over the same period.

5. Collingwood is the only team not to score fewer than 1500pts in a game this season.

Warnie, Cal & Roy discuss these takeaways on the Traders Podcast (11:30).


Listen to the AFL Fantasy Podcast with The Traders at Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts.

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Brendon

    June 4, 2019 at 12:58 pm

    I can’t decide should I trade Hayes Bradshaw and Sloane out for houli cogs and Clark
    Or trade Hayes Moore and Sloane out for cogs or houli Clarke and bewley

    • Avatar

      Jag67

      June 4, 2019 at 8:57 pm

      Clarke not playing this week, try O Baker instead. Clarke can come in next week

  2. Avatar

    Pendles4Brownlow

    June 4, 2019 at 2:28 pm

    I have been crunching numbers for my trades over the bye period. I can easily have a minimum of 19 players on the field each week, but the cost and score differences are immense when I consider the alternatives. I have it down to two preferences, which I cannot decide between (no doubt the fit will hit the shan and it will all turn to hell once we find out what the real injuries are, but I’m giving it a go). Which do you think is better (in order, with three per week for the three weeks):

    1. Hayes/Drew/Cripps/Scrim/Pendles/Hore/Smith/Stack/Corbett to Baker/Gardner/Cogs/Joyce/Rocky/Daniel/Hurn/Crisp/D Clarke – left with $24,000 in the kitty, 16/22 of the squad are premiums, scoring a total of 5,287 over the bye period and set up to score approximately 2,384 per week from then

    2. Scrimshaw/Worpel/Hayes/Answerth/Pendles/Hore/Smith/Crips/Drew to Gardner/Cogs/Baker/Joyce/Rockliff/Daniel/Houli/Dunkley/D Clarke – left with $57,000 in the kitty, 16/22 of the squad are premiums, scoring a total of 5,401 over the bye period and set up to score approximately 2,369 per week from then

    Obviously, it will just take an injury or two to stuff this up, but is it better to score more during the bye rounds and come out of the bye with a team scoring about 15 points below the alternative, or score 114 points less during the bye rounds but score more afterwards. In both options, I have come out of each week with at least one more potential keeper (as far as the forward premos seem to be doing), and I have reduced the deadwood. A couple of sideways trades are necessary to keep at least 19 on the park.

    • Avatar

      Pendles4Brownlow

      June 4, 2019 at 2:34 pm

      The rooks used will depend on selections

  3. Avatar

    Pendles4Brownlow

    June 4, 2019 at 5:31 pm

    And Whitfield screws up my plan already

  4. Avatar

    Kevin McGill

    June 4, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    Why would you be trading out Pendles? Has he been injured?

    • Avatar

      Pendles4Brownlow

      June 5, 2019 at 9:24 am

      Pendles is my favourite player, but his exit is to ensure I have full coverage for round 13 and some scoring capacity. I have to either trade out Duncan, Gaff, Pendles, Grundy, Gawn, Danger, T Kelly or Lloyd. My only rookie options are Fort (who won’t get me anywhere) or Answerth (but there are no good alternative back rooms and insufficient funds to bring in a gun). I would prefer to avoid a sideways trade, but I don’t want a donut or the potential rookie score.

      • Avatar

        Pendles4Brownlow

        June 5, 2019 at 10:40 am

        Back rooks – damn autocorrect on my phone

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