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Inside the Numbers

Inside the Numbers – Rd. 4

Pete looks at the player trends following round four.

DPP’s are about to hit next week, finding decent Rookie downgrades at DEF & FWD position is proving to be difficult, early cash generation is proving to be difficult for expendable players & a 2 week suspension hit a highly owned player creating issues in the forward line for fantasy coaches this week.

You are not alone!

Article byΒ @aflratingsPete

PLAYER TRENDS

Adelaide
Round 4 was the first time Rory Laird recorded more than 5 Marks for a game this season, he recorded a season high 115pts.

Brisbane
Lachie Neale has recorded 40 Disposals or more in his last 3 games, he has recorded 10 career games of 40 Disposals or more (7.2%).

Carlton
Patrick Cripps is averaging 30.5 Disposals this season, his previous career season high average was 29.6 Disposals last season.

Collingwood
Brodie Grundy recorded a career high 58 Hit Outs in Round 4, he is averaging 128.7pts from his last 3 games.

Essendon
Devon Smith has recorded 100pts or more in 1 game this season & is averaging 89.8pts, this time last season he was averaging 92.3pts & finished with a season average of 106.6pts.

Fremantle
Rory Lobb has averaged 64.0pts with Sean Darcy & 93.0pts without Sean Darcy this season.

Geelong
Tim Kelly recorded his 3rd career lowest score of 58pts in Round 4, it was the first time he recorded fewer than 10 Disposals in a game.

Gold Coast
Brayden Fiorini has scored 100pts or more in 3 of 4 games this season, he is averaging 105.3pts.

GWS Giants
In his first 2 games of the season Josh Kelly is averaging 107.0pts, he has a career season high average of 113.9pts (2017, Incl Finals).

Hawthorn
Ricky Henderson has averaged 108.0pts from his last 3 games, he is averaging 102.8pts this season & has a career season high average of 87.3pts (2017).

Melbourne
Clayton Oliver has averaged 106.7pts from his last 3 games, he scored 120pts or more in 32.0% of games last season.

Nth Melbourne
Todd Goldstein is yet to recorded a 100pt game this season (Ave: 81.5pts), he averaged 83.9pts pre-Bye last season (Rounds 1-12) & 104.7pts post-Bye (Rounds 14-23).

Port Adelaide
Travis Boak has scored 100pts or more in each game this season & is averaging 127.3pts, he has never averaged 100pts or more in a season.

Richmond
Jack Ross recorded 25 Disposals on debut for 86pts, he recorded 16 Disposals in the first half.

St Kilda
Jack Billings is averaging 30.5 Disposals this season, his previous season high average was 23.1 Disposals in 2017.

Sydney
Isaac Heeney averaged 71.5pts from his first 2 games of the season, he has averaged 113.0pts from his last 2 games.

West Coast
Dom Sheed has averaged 119.5 without Andrew Gaff & 79.0pts with Andrew Gaff this season.

Western Bulldogs
Marcus Bontempelli is averaging 31.3 Disposals this season for an average of 121.0pts, he has never averaged more than 25.0 Disposals in a single season over his career.

FIVE TAKEAWAYS

1.GWS have recorded an average of +67.0 Disposals against their opponents from 3 winning games this season, the Giants play Fremantle (Manuka) & Sydney (SCG) in the next 2 weeks.

2.Adelaide recorded 440 Disposals in Round 1, each week thereafter the Crows have regressed & are averaging 385.3 Disposals for the season.

3.Sam Walsh is averaging 26.3 Disposals in his first 4 games of his career (AFL Rank 37), other players that are averaging 26.3 Disposals this season: Rory Laird & Zach Merrett.

4.West Coast have conceded 30 Disposals or more to 2 players this season (R2: Lachie Whitfield 33, R4: David Mundy 36), Eagles play Port Adelaide (Optus) & Geelong (GMHBA) in the next 2 weeks.

5.Jarrod Witts is averaging 44.0 Hit Outs this season (AFL Rank 1), Max Gawn 43.0 Hit Outs (Rank 2) & Brodie Grundy 39.8 Hit Outs (Rank 3).

Warnie, Cal & Roy discuss these takeaways on the Traders Podcast (10:14).

 

Listen to the AFL Fantasy Podcast with The Traders at Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Luke

    April 16, 2019 at 1:15 pm

    Is Tom Stewart, Jack Billings or Caleb Daniel a priority

    • Avatar

      Marcus

      April 16, 2019 at 8:20 pm

      I HAVE settlefield & Rozee both being Traded out of my team this week and that is what I’m tossing up on whether to bring in Billings or Daniels

      • Avatar

        Michael Barker

        April 16, 2019 at 11:56 pm

        I’m leaning towards Daniels due to the next few match ups plus cheaper could be handy with some upgrades … but Billings higher ceiling

  2. Euman

    Euman

    April 16, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    Have similar question, i plugged these 3 into the analysier on site noted following:
    1. average TS 104.5, JB 102.5 CD 93.5 (TS win)
    2. Price TS 664k JB 659K CD 606k (CD win)
    3. Last 3 round avg – JB 108.7 TS 105.3 CD 99.7 (JB wins)
    4. best score JB 124 TS 115 CD 105 (JB wins)
    5. lowest TS 97 JB 84 CD 75 (TS wins)
    6. % owned CD wins
    7. proj score JB 91 CD 83 TS 81 (JB win)
    8. B/E JB & CD 69 TS 82 (win CD JB)
    9. consistency JB 55 CD 43 TS 38

    IMO including price b/e etc and having no idea what your team looks like i would rate as follows:
    1. JB
    2. TS
    3. CD

    • Avatar

      Luke

      April 16, 2019 at 2:11 pm

      Legend mate x

    • Avatar

      Andrew Alexander

      April 16, 2019 at 6:05 pm

      Great summary

  3. Euman

    Euman

    April 16, 2019 at 2:08 pm

    Ok my questions is two part, 1. should i do the trade and whom do i trade/target

    trade 1. Setterfield to Ross leavees me $437k in the bank now do i hold do another rookei trade for cash or do i go the second trade

    trade 2. either Burgess or Parker (which one? stats say Parker is better but i am worried he will be dropped soon)

    to either Heeny or Billings (stats on site all lean toward Billings but he has burnt me before)

    Advice appreciated pelase, givers gain cheers All

    Fantasy teams a wreck anyway but SC doing ok

    • Avatar

      Luke

      April 16, 2019 at 2:15 pm

      Its also a flip of the coin for what one to keep. Just wait until team selection and then maybe base it on BE.

  4. Avatar

    Luke

    April 16, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Setterfield to Ross is a given trade 100%. I would also do trade 2 as well because having Parker or Burgess on your field now may cough up 40 points a week (I’m in same boat). Billings also is playing through midfield compared to forward line in previous years so hopefully won’t burn you (or me).

    • Euman

      Euman

      April 16, 2019 at 5:01 pm

      cheers, yes makes sense, i guess i just liked having 430k sitting there but no good doing nothing i guess and that move means parker/burgess not on field and Worpel to F5 looks good.

      I guess its about JS between Burgess and Parker atm the scoring is similarly pathetic. So will wait for teams and decide but think Burgess has far better JS than Parker and has DPP (think jsut answered myself there)

  5. Avatar

    Z

    April 16, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Who to bring in out of J.Worpel, R.Marshall or J.Newnes ??

    • Avatar

      Michael Barker

      April 16, 2019 at 11:59 pm

      Worpedo

  6. Avatar

    Luke

    April 16, 2019 at 3:06 pm

    Worpel is in Roy’s rolling best 22 at the moment so I would slightly be favouring him

  7. Avatar

    Brendon

    April 16, 2019 at 4:09 pm

    I bought Marshall in last week but know the weekend he scored 88 and this week will have a 90 but will be back in 100 keeper

    • Euman

      Euman

      April 16, 2019 at 5:07 pm

      yes is playing Ruck is there any sign of Longer coming back though? If not lock n load as would expect DPP in 2 weeks and certainly has the low b/e so still going up in value. I looked at him hard but due to fact played only Hawks Freo and Bombers none of who have greatest rucks i felt solid pick up fro draft but not convinced for classic just IMO

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