Inside the Fantasy Numbers – Round 5

It has been quite a volatile start to the AFL Fantasy season for most coaches, if you have avoided the bullets from injury through to playing status or even form slumps you have been spared to this point. Making decisions from what unfolds in the early part of the season can be dangerous especially as premium players are being traded in to teams for the remainder of the year now, experienced coaches are likely relying on a greater body of work and more data than just the odd break-out game.

Points Given up by Teams

Nth Melbourne are the new Richmond, they are the only team that has not conceded 1500 total game points against any opposition team this year. Don’t look now but ranked No.2 just behind the Kangaroos are the Western Bulldogs, the Dogs have also been a Fantasy nightmare for opposing teams in 2016. It will be interesting to see what numbers are produced in Round 6 when these teams meet.

AFL FANTASY  AGA	AVE
NTH MELBOURNE	1424.8
WESTERN BULLDOGS	1464.8
GEELONG	1466.2
GWS GIANTS	1471.2
SYDNEY	1521.6
GOLD COAST	1525.0
WEST COAST	1551.6
ADELAIDE	1569.8
HAWTHORN	1577.2
RICHMOND	1592.0
MELBOURNE	1594.8
ESSENDON	1599.8
CARLTON	1617.8
BRISBANE	1620.8
ST. KILDA	1676.8
FREMANTLE	1682.0
PORT ADELAIDE	1702.8
COLLINGWOOD	1722.6

Round 6 Game Stats

Western Bulldogs 5th consecutive game with 400+ Disposals (447 vs Brisbane & 2016 Ave 454.2)

Nth Melbourne have not conceded more than 366 Disposals to a team in 2016 (Ave 344.4 Disposals conceded)

All 5 Bulldogs opponents this year are currently ranked 11th or worse for conceding Disposals, Nth Melbourne are Ranked 2^nd

Other Stats

Hawthorn have conceded 400+ Disposals in each of the last 3 games

 

Individual Stats

Jordan Lewis 59pts vs Crows

Lowest score since R12, 2013 57pts

Has now recorded 2 scores fewer than 61pts this year (Ave 94.8pts)

Max Gawn 142pts vs Tigers

2nd highest Career score (Highest 146pts vs Bombers R15, 2015)

Scott Thompson 126pts vs Hawks

2016 Ave: 113.2

Last 4 Games: 119.3

Did You Know?

Scott Thompson has had 49 career games of 120pts or more (16.9% of all games), 122 games have gone for 100pts or more (42.1% of all games)

Andrew Gaff is the only player for West Coast to have scored 100pts or more in both travel games in 2016, no other West Coast player has scored 100pts in either game

Tom Campbell 102pts vs Brisbane (Stefan Martin)

Was a career high score & 1st time he scored over 85pts

He is eligible as FWD/RUCK

Stephen Coniglio Ave 97.0

Scores of 123 & 113 in his last 2 games

123pts vs Saints in R5 (5th Career highest)

 

CLUB	PTS FOR	>100 FOR	>120 FOR	PTS AG	>100 AG	>120 AG
ADE	1604.2	2.2	0.6	1541.8	2.8	1.4
BL	1393.6	2	0.2	1619.4	4.2	0.8
CAR	1475.6	3.2	0.4	1616.6	3.2	1.4
COLL	1548	3.2	0.4	1758.2	5	2
ESS	1701.2	5.4	1.8	1574.8	2.2	0.6
FRE	1474.6	2.2	1.2	1680.6	5.4	1
GC	1564.6	3.4	1.4	1522.6	3	0.4
GEE	1571.2	2.6	0.6	1464.4	2.6	1
GWS	1616	3.4	0.8	1470.4	2.4	0.6
HAW	1627.4	3.8	1	1576.2	2	1
MELB	1559	2.6	0.6	1592.6	4.4	1.2
NM	1590.6	3.2	1.2	1421.2	1.8	0.4
PA	1473	2.6	0.8	1700.2	4.4	1.2
RICH	1496.4	3.4	0.8	1589.6	2.8	1
STK	1654	3.6	1.8	1675	4.2	1.4
SYD	1614.2	3.8	1	1519	2.4	0
WB	1794	4.6	1	1506.6	2	0
WC	1604.4	3.2	0.8	1549.6	3.6	0.8

3 Prime Targets after DPP Changes

Robbie Gray MID/FWD

Salary: $517K
Break Even: 144.0
2016 Average: 93.4
2015 Average:  96.8

Forward Status has been awarded to Gray, after a brilliant start to the 2016 season with scores of 125 & 127 he has struggled in his last 3 games with an average of just 71.7pts per game. Considering his high BE and volatility in scoring Gray should  be considered as an upgrade to forward lines later in the year, he will be far cheaper than his current price plus it will give Coaches more time to analyse his scoring output.

James Kelly MID/DEF

Salary: $508K
Break Even: 79.0
2016 Average: 104.0
2015 Average:  81.8

Defender Status has been awarded to Kelly, after getting a 2^nd chance at AFL late in his career Kelly is racking up an average of 27.0 Disposals per game. Kelly has never averaged over 100.0pts in a single season, but his weight of numbers and now DPP status make him a prime target for many Coaches. Durability may be the only concern for Kelly in 2016, he missed 5 games last year with the Cats in his final year. There are 2 thoughts for trading in Kelly, get him now because of a reasonable BE price or wait a little bit longer to see how the season unfolds for he and also the Bombers. With 3 scores over 100pts already this season, it is going to be very difficult to say no to him this week.

Bernie Vince MID/DEF

Salary: $516K
Break Even: 86.0
2016 Average: 100.0
2015 Average:  92.4

Defender Status has been awarded to Vince, with 3 consecutive scores over 100pts Christmas has come early for those with cheap backlines looking to upgrade. Since being let of the chain by the Demons at Round 8 last year Vince has averaged 99.9pts from his last 19 games which has included 11 scores of 100pts or more, Vince has a decent ceiling of points with his highest score over this period being 158pts vs Geelong in Round 12 2015. Vince is a must have for any defensive line-up as he should rank amongst the top in this category by the end of the year, his price is likely to increase gradually over the next few weeks at his current average.

 

Name	Club	Price	Ave	Add	Pos
Clay Cameron	GC	$263000	62.8	FWD	DEF/FWD
Ryan Davis	GC	$212000	52.5	FWD	MID/FWD
Nick Graham	CAR	$373000	71.5	FWD	MID/FWD
Robbie Gray	PA	$517000	93.4	FWD	MID/FWD
George Hewett	SYD	$243000	65.5	FWD	MID/FWD
James Kelly	ESS	$508000	104	DEF	MID/DEF
Will Langford	HAW	$414000	77.8	FWD	MID/FWD
Jamie Macmillan	NM	$376000	66.8	MID	DEF/MID
Kamdyn McIntosh	RICH	$378000	72.8	DEF	MID/DEF
Callum Mills	SYD	$298000	66.4	DEF	MID/DEF
Bernie Vince	MELB	$516000	100	DEF	MID/DEF
Aaron Young	PA	$311000	66	FWD	MID/FWD