Welcome to a Friday arvo column that hopefully helps you get set for the weekend ahead. I’ll be looking at the key points/questions that have popped up during the week with some quick fire opinions, plus a look at how the mighty Warne Dawgs are looking ahead of the coming round.
Don’t miss:
- Calvin’s Captains
- Fry’s Cash Cows
- Dunny’s Thursday Scramble
- Matt’s Weekend Wash-Up
- Teams live stream
- Weekly podcast
And a couple of bonus things for this week…
Will Day options
Firstly, Day should not be suspended for two weeks. I think the Hawks made an error of just trying to downgrade to medium impact. Reckon they could have tried for low and they met in the middle and therefore it could have been one week.
Anyway… I was all about 1 week would be a hold, 2 weeks would be a trade.
If you’re in the camp of trading, there are a few options. The straight swap for Tom Stewart will be popular and totally valid (he’s value, but if you miss him this week, he won’t increase a heap even off a great game v Eagles). You could obviously try to go up. Jordan Dawson is out of the picture now, but if you don’t have Nick Daicos, that’s an obvious move. You won’t have to cry watching him anymore.
Lachie Weller is an option as well. You’re picking him now, though, with the thought he is a medium to long term keeper. He’s priced in the mid-80s so he’s not the massive value that he was before. The beauty is that he has that round 13 bye like Stewart. So if you think he can be a premium, that’s a massive bonus.
I don’t mind the idea of playing for some value. I think Jayden Hunt over Trent Rivers (despite Roy being the other way around). You would be doing this with the idea of getting Day back when he returns for round seven. This can be a little dangerous as you’re relying on having the trade to be able to do it that week and also the fact that Hunt/Rivers could post some pretty shitty scores. Their price is heading north almost regardless, so there’s little risk in that.
I wouldn’t go all the way down to a Corey Wagner but this is where the hold could come into play.
DPPs drop next week. Everyone has Harry Sheezel and a lot have Jack Ziebell. They can be switched back for round six which will help in bolstering the backline; especially meaning we can get a rookie off field. You might need to take a Wilmot/Cowan type hit this week to cover for Day. Generally our options to field rookies in MID or FWD are better than the defenders.
Day should have DEF/MID dual-position status next week to add to the flexibility that will be opened up.
Grab a cash cow
We’re at a point of looking at some downgrades and upgrade. The issue is that our cows haven’t fattened as we would like … or their actual growth is looking pretty limited (hello Cash Cowan).
If you’re in a position to grab a rookie, there are a couple coming through this week that could be worth a look. The flexibility of a RUC/FWD for your R3 is handy, especially if they’re playing. Obviously we have Ned Moyle shouldering the load for the injured Jarrod Witts. He is an option, but we are unsure of the severity of Witts’ back soreness to really go all in on him as our R3. That’s why Samson Ryan is the pick there at $244k. Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch will be missing for a few weeks so job security is there … even if scoring ability isn’t. Who knows though… maybe he can hit a decent score or two in the next couple of weeks to kickstart his price increases.
Corey Wagner at $285k would have been in our teams in round one if he was named. Mature age, had some decent numbers in VFL last year (98 average in last five is my cherry picked stat) and looks set now to get a chance after an injury affected start to the year.
It looks like Matthew Johnson and Matt Roberts have lost the vest now. They could be worthy bench picks, but we can wait a week. As we can for Sam Sturt, but named on a wing, I like the potential there.
Next week we will definitely be picking one of these guys – likely one of the last three mentioned – as downgrade.
Scoring at SA venues
This weekend we’ve got six games at Adelaide Oval, two at Norwood and one in the Adelaide Hills.
What is scoring going to be like?
Well, I’m not going to stress about that or make it dictate too many of my decisions, but it is interesting to note some things.
From my research, Adelaide Oval has been a pretty ‘normal’ place to score Fantasy points at. Last night Crows turned it on with 1743, up from their 1487 they’re averaging this year. Blues were down from their 1585 average to 1379. That told a story of the game rather than Fantasy. Long story short… just expect regular scores there.
Nick Daicos scored 147 in his only game there, but we have more data that shows Zach Merrett (123) and Taylor Adams (122) love it. Same goes for Scott Pendlebury (113), Clayton Oliver (113) and Jack Macrae (110) who are above their usual career average.
Adelaide Hills… who knows? It’s Brisbane v North Melbourne. I’m going to pass on making any comment here. This will very much be a country ground!
Then there’s Norwood Oval. It’s skinnier than GMHBA Stadium and will be noticably different to other AFL venues. Freo play Gold Coast and Giants play Hawks there. It hit up a former AFL player who loves his Fantasy (doing quite well in the top couple of hundred at one point this year) that played there a few times.
“Good for the inside mids, plenty of stoppages, lots of contests around the ground that mids can get to, so plenty of tackles and plenty of ball to be won for midfielders but not so good for outside mids/wingers/ half forwards because not a lot of room to work with.”
When I asked about defenders, specifically Sicily, this is what I got:
“Half backs can struggle there but have also seen plenty of big games from half backers, would say that Sicilys role would be pretty comfortable and still get the same looks”.
Make of it what you will.
Warne Dawgs – Round 5
Oh boy… I can’t make any ground up. I’ve got Sam Docherty and Will Day issues like everyone else… but I also have a crap team where blokes like McGrath, Worpel, Stocker and the incredible amount of rookies I have on field means they are a long way from being moved out.
Docherty to Daicos means I don’t have to hate watching Collingwood games. I considered the Dawson move last night, but thought he might get attention (he didn’t) and may cop it next week against Hawks (Finn?). I guess non-owners like me are lucky it was ‘only’ 133. That could have been a lot higher… aren’t we supposed to double HT scores? 180+!
I am currently holding Day, as I explain in the video – click here or you can with it embedded at the top of this post.
The method in this madness is about knowing Sheezel will be going back next week and that I need to make sure my cash generation is going along in the right direction. Moving Davey wasn’t the ideal move, but as he’s out and price isn’t going up dramatically fast, I thought the move to Wagner was about getting one cow this week and then another next week as there should be a couple on offer.
I’m not going to say this is the right way to go… there’s some risk and it is a bit of a long-term play rather than getting the one week hit. Hopefully it sets me up well. I could simply go Day to Stewart, but I would like my team to be looking better in a couple of weeks time with cash generation at the forefront of what I do.
I haven’t been ranked 15k at this stage of a season before, so it is new ground. I don’t want to do anything stupid and keep churning out the ‘process’ and get a respectable ranking, rather than trying to go all out which could go south! Hence, that’s why I am getting Daicos.
Man… I am stoked there is no Thursday night game next week.
ROUND 5 TRADES
Sam Docherty (D1) > Nick Daicos (D1)
Alwyn Davey (M10) > Corey Wagner (D6)
Cash left: $194,000
ROUND 5 CAPTAINS
Tim Taranto VC
Tim English C
Click here to watch the YouTube team update video.
Lockout times
All times AEST
Friday 14 April
Fremantle v Gold Coast (Norwood) – 5:10pm
Richmond v Sydney (AO) – 8:10pm
Saturday 15 April
Brisbane v North Melbourne (Adelaide Hills) – 1:10pm
Essendon v Melbourne (AO) – 4:10pm
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (AO) – 7:50pm
Sunday 16 April
Geelong v West Coast (AO) – 1:10pm
GWS Giants v Hawthorn (Norwood) – 3:20pm
Collingwood v St Kilda (AO) – 4:50pm
Don’t forget we have our Patreon pumping along! From $5 a month you can be watching our flagship Sunday night live stream once the final game finishes (this week it’ll be around 7:30pm AEDT). For $10 you get a bonus mid-week Q&A podcast, which we call the Pintcast, where we answer plenty of questions over a few beers! There’s heaps more, so check out patreon.com/dttalk for more details.
Podcasts
Players of Interest
AFL Trade Period 2024 and Fantasy
Players of Interest
AFL Trade Period 2024 and Fantasy
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