AFL Fantasy Draft 2021 recap and review

Everyone has a story or two about how they drafted. Looking at the average draft picks (ADP) for the year in hindsight can be an interesting experience. Which players outperformed their ADP and who cost you big time with where you picked them.

Let’s take a look at picking the best and worst possible Fantasy Draft teams based on ADP from 2021. We’ll pick the onfield 18 for a 10 team league in a 5/7/1/5 set up. Players selected will only come from the round the ADP shows.

Big thanks to Heff from Keeper League Podcast for the data!

Click here to download ADP data in a spreadsheet.

Best team

Taking into account total points, games played, average (as you do), here’s the best pick from each each round to put together a team. You could argue for a better pick from any given round, however, in making sure the full onfield squad is selected, some different thinking was there based on position.

1. Jack Steele (MID) 121.4 / 22
The highest points scorer of the year was ranked 8th on ADP (5th for midfielders). Incredible season after a real Fantasy breakout the year before where he improved  his PB in 2019 of 96 to 113 (BCV). Averaged 133 from round 10 on.

2. Rory Laird (DEF) 111.7 / 22
Lloyd (5) and Whitfield (12) were ahead of him in ADP, but that midfield role was a big selling point for Classic coaches. Ended up as the best ‘defender’ in the game.

3. Jack Crisp (DEF) 101.8 / 22
Death, taxes and Crisp playing 22 games. You’re not only getting a great average from him, you’re getting someone who suits up every week.

4. Jarryd Lyons (MID) 117.1 / 22
His best season by far and some coaches may have questioned even being picked at 35, but he finished with the third best average and third most points for the year. A big end-of-season saw him average 128 in last six rounds.

5. Callum Mills (DEF) 110 / 18
Despite only playing two games in the last six rounds, what Mills did prior to this was enough to counter the four games missed. Even when he did pop back at for the first week of Fantasy finals, he knocked up a 152.

6. Touk Miller (MID) 122.1 / 21
Quite possibly the midfielder pick of the Draft. Missed the one game due to suspension, but to finish as the highest averaging player, after coming off his first season knocking up a Fantasy ton with 100.6, it was one hell of a season for the join Dane Swan Medallist (with Steele).

7. Ollie Wines (MID) 111.9 / 22
There were plenty of misses in this range with the last pick in the seventh being the best of all… and a Brownlow to boot. Wines has only averaged over 100 once (back in 2016) and was coming off seasons of 12 and 15 games, this was a mid-draft selection that got a big tick.

8. Nic Naitanui (RUC) 85 / 22
Probably the ‘worst’ of the best team but for all the other rucks, he was one of only three rucks to play all 22 games. If you were astute, drafting Sean Darcy (93.7 average, 21 games) for your bench in the 20th round would have seen you play him over NicNat.

9. Daniel Rich (DEF) 98.1 / 22
Significantly outplayed his ADP (89) to rank as the 35th best player on average this year but 4th for defenders for total points.

10. Bailey Smith (MID) 87.4 / 22
A round where very few players were hits. Smith was the best of a bad bunch.

11. Isaac Smith (MID/FWD) 93 / 21
Some may have drafted for the name, but to get a 90+ average from Smith was a nice return with his FWD status. Quite a few players who end up at the Cats play different roles and don’t hit the Fantasy numbers they’ve done in the past… especially as a 30+ year old.

12. Jy Simpkin (MID) 95.5 / 22
Averaged 105 after the bye, you’d be happy with him as your M6. Brandon Ellis, had he stayed on the park, may have grabbed this spot.

13. Jaidyn Stephenson (MID/FWD) 84.8 / 19
Talked up during the pre-season, the former Pie was solid for most of the season, pumping out 11 scores of 80 or more.

14. Jack Lukosius (DEF) 86 / 22
A bit of a need for the team here to get Lukosius, but was the only player in this round to play all 22 games and a mid-80s average isn’t bad for your final defender on field.

15. Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD) 100.1 / 21
That move to half-back was a winner! A sleeper for a lot of coaches who ignored his sub-40 average next to his name. Gained DEF status during the season to add flexibility for the 30-year-old who averaged the first Fantasy ton of his career.

16. Aaron Hall (DEF/FWD) 109 / 20
I’m not sure there’s ever been a better 16th round pick. Starting the season not making the team for round one, then came in as sub for 11 in round two and also having a 35 (injured), from round 7 on, Hall averaged 120 in his new role in the backline. There’s a good chance he possibly had this ADP due to auto-drafting and then was dropped to free agents early in the season. What a gun!

17. Ben Keays (MID) 108 / 22
Who would have predicted the guy with an ADP of 170 to be the 11th highest scoring midfielder? He was coming off his best season to date (average of 79) and said goodbye to any tagging responsibilities to smash out an average 40+ better than his career Fantasy average.

18. Nick Hind (DEF/FWD) 84.5 / 22
Had a great season as the Bombers’ recruit was played as a defender. Another FWD who added DPP and was among the best for both lines.

Best Draft Team
DEFENDERS Rory Laird (2), Jack Crisp (3), Callum Mills (5), Daniel Rich (9), Jack Lukosius (14)
MIDFIELDERS Jack Steele (1), Jarryd Lyons (4), Touk Miller (6), Ollie Wines (7), Bailey Smith (10), Jy Simpkin (12), Ben Keays (17)
RUCK Nic Naitanui (8)
FORWARDS Isaac Smith (11), Jaidyn Stephenson (13), Jack Ziebell (15), Aaron Hall (16), Nick Hind (18)

Worst team

Selecting the worst team takes into account firstly the drop in expected output followed by games played/total points. While it may have been easier to say someone was a shocking pick due to injury (and yes there are a few in here and they kill you), it’s those who you picked instead of a much better player that hurts the most.

1. Lachie Neale (MID) 94.5 / 15
From the No. 1 MID last year with a Brownlow around his neck to the 46th ranked player on average, Neale was a big bust for Fantasy Draft coaches who spent their first pick on him. He had the worst average of top 10 on ADP behind Reilly O’Brien while Taylor Adams only played fewer games.

2. Matt Crouch (MID) DNP
Didn’t get on the park this year… work out where he might fall in 2022!

3. Dustin Martin (MID/FWD) 81.3 / 16
Hasn’t averaged less than 93 since 2012, his third season. Injury ended his season in round 18, but the damage was done before that.

4. Stephen Coniglio (MID) 59 / 5
Just five games to his name, including one as a sub when returning from injury. Cogs was a disaster of a pick for a lot of M2 or M3s.

5. Jeremy Howe (DEF) 73.4 / 8
Another knee injury thwarted his season, but numbers weren’t going to hit close to the 107 (BCV) that sat next to his name from 2020 which probably gave him a higher ADP than he warranted.

6. Michael Walters (MID/FWD) 61.5 / 16
A couple of years of 90s made him a F1/F2 target but the midfield time wasn’t there with the development of the young blokes in the engine room.

7. Zac Williams (DEF) 71.5 / 14
Flashbacks to Roy in the pre-season… but the Blues ended up playing him in the backline (which actually gave him better numbers than in the MID at times). Worst part was the injury niggles.

8. Luke McDonald (DEF) 68.1 / 11
Only 11 games, but was hot property last year and a few bought in due to a run of scoring in Coronaball. Looks like the points could have been there if he was what Ziebell/Hall were able to.

9. Trent Dumont (MID) 70.3 / 14
Lowest average of the players in the 9th round. Took him until round 9 to get into the team following injury.

10. Zak Butters (MID/FWD) 76.2 / 10
Many were hoping for a breakout, but injury didn’t allow him to get going. Half of his scores were good (119, 83, 99, 90, 91) but there were 50s and 40s in the other half.

11. Sam Naismith (RUC) DNP
An auto-draft drama? Naismith didn’t play after injuring his ACL last year.

12. James Sicily (DEF) DNP
Some thought he would play in the back-half of the season. He didn’t.

13. Connor Rozee (FWD) 67.6 / 19
Breakout? Not yet.

14. Jared Polec (MID) 51 / 5
Five games at 51. Oh boy!

15. Josh Jenkins (RUC/FWD) 35 / 1
One game. Auto-draft? Or was it his 86 that he scored in the pre-season game? Whatever, this pick hurt.

16. Will Setterfield (MID) 60.4 / 8
Wasn’t part of the Blues’ plans this year and when he was, scores weren’t fantastic. A lot of coaches were looking for improvement, but with MID only status, it was a shocker.

17. Marc Murphy (MID) 55.9 / 14
Probably lucky to have 14 games to his name as the Blues nursed him as sub to his 300th and subsequent retirement.

18. Jason Johannisen (DEF) 48.2 / 20
Generally has been a solid enough late round pick (maybe 18th round is too high even based on previous season’s numbers), but a half-forward role… and plenty of time in the sub tracksuit, made for his worst return of his entire career despite playing 20 games.

Worst Draft Team
DEFENDERS Jeremy Howe (5), Zac Williams (7), Luke McDonald (8), James Sicily (12), Jason Johannisen (18)
MIDFIELDERS Lachie Neale (1), Matt Crouch (2), Stephen Coniglio (4), Trent Dumont (9), Jared Polec (14), Will Setterfield (16), Marc Murphy (17)
RUCK Sam Naismith (11)
FORWARDS Dustin Martin (3), Michael Walters (6), Zak Butters (10), Connor Rozee (13), Josh Jenkins (15)

 

Average Draft Position 2021

Top 200 sorted by ADP.

ADP	PLAYER	POS	GMS	AVG	PTS
1	Max Gawn	RUC	22	108.6	2389
2	Brodie Grundy	RUC	20	106.5	2129
3	Lachie Neale	MID	15	94.5	1417
4	Zach Merrett	MID	22	110.3	2427
5	Jake Lloyd	DEF	21	98.2	2063
6	Clayton Oliver	MID	22	108.7	2391
7	Jack Macrae	MID	22	115.9	2550
8	Jack Steele	MID	22	121.4	2670
9	Reilly O'Brien	RUC	20	86.2	1724
10	Taylor Adams	MID	14	100.9	1412
11	Tom Mitchell	MID	22	115.6	2543
12	Lachie Whitfield	DEF	15	94.8	1422
13	Patrick Dangerfield	MID/FWD	13	86.8	1128
14	Steele Sidebottom	MID/FWD	21	88.4	1857
15	Lachie Hunter	MID/FWD	21	85.2	1790
16	Matt Crouch	MID	0	0	0
17	Rory Laird	DEF	22	111.7	2457
18	Andrew Gaff	MID	21	97.2	2041
19	Josh Dunkley	MID/FWD	11	91.5	1007
20	Tom Rockliff	MID	1	27	27
21	Adam Treloar	MID	13	87.2	1133
22	Marcus Bontempelli	MID	22	107.9	2373
23	Christian Petracca	MID	22	110.9	2439
24	Josh Kelly	MID/FWD	21	103.7	2178
25	Dustin Martin	MID/FWD	16	81.3	1300
26	Dayne Zorko	MID/FWD	21	108.9	2287
27	Scott Pendlebury	MID/FWD	18	84.4	1519
28	Rowan Marshall	RUC/FWD	13	89.7	1166
29	Todd Goldstein	RUC	22	85.8	1887
30	Jack Crisp	DEF	22	101.8	2239
31	Tom Stewart	DEF	20	96.8	1936
32	Tim Taranto	MID	22	107.8	2371
33	Luke Parker	MID	22	99.3	2185
34	Mitch Duncan	MID	10	100.3	1003
35	Jarryd Lyons	MID	22	117.1	2576
36	Travis Boak	MID	21	97.7	2051
37	Sam Walsh	MID	22	109	2397
38	Nat Fyfe	MID/FWD	15	84.5	1267
39	Cameron Guthrie	MID	20	109.9	2198
40	Stephen Coniglio	MID	5	59	295
41	Jeremy Howe	DEF	8	73.4	587
42	Dylan Shiel	MID	7	63.1	442
43	Matt Rowell	MID	12	55.3	663
44	Callum Mills	DEF	18	110	1980
45	Brayden Maynard	DEF	22	81.5	1792
46	Jayden Short	DEF	22	93.4	2054
47	Sam Docherty	DEF	14	98.6	1381
48	Caleb Daniel	DEF	21	86.9	1824
49	Jordan Ridley	DEF	21	80	1681
50	Patrick Cripps	MID	20	81.8	1635
51	Josh P. Kennedy	MID	21	88.9	1866
52	Isaac Heeney	FWD	20	76.2	1523
53	Tim English	RUC/FWD	18	80.3	1446
54	Michael Walters	MID/FWD	16	61.5	984
55	Andrew McGrath	MID	14	84.6	1184
56	Jed Anderson	MID	7	79.7	558
57	Toby Greene	FWD	17	84.8	1441
58	Touk Miller	MID	21	122.1	2565
59	James Worpel	MID	20	78.8	1576
60	Andrew Brayshaw	MID	20	104.3	2085
61	Sam Menegola	MID	20	86.6	1732
62	Dan Houston	DEF	21	79.9	1678
63	Tim Kelly	MID	19	84.3	1601
64	Zac Williams	DEF	14	71.5	1001
65	Tom Phillips	MID/FWD	22	73.1	1608
66	Brad Crouch	MID	20	95.2	1904
67	Bachar Houli	DEF	12	91.6	1099
68	Alex Witherden	DEF	9	87.8	790
69	Luke Dunstan	MID	12	94.6	1135
70	Ollie Wines	MID	22	111.9	2462
71	Nic Naitanui	RUC	22	85	1869
72	Jarrod Witts	RUC	3	86.3	259
73	Hugh McCluggage	MID	22	100	2201
74	Christian Salem	DEF	21	92.9	1951
75	Luke Ryan	DEF	19	87.4	1660
76	Luke McDonald	DEF	11	68.1	749
77	Shai Bolton	MID/FWD	20	77.7	1553
78	Kyle Langford	MID/FWD	17	86.6	1472
79	Jaeger O'Meara	MID	18	95.9	1726
80	Jordan De Goey	MID/FWD	20	84.3	1686
81	Hugh Greenwood	MID	15	87.7	1315
82	Trent Dumont	MID	14	70.3	984
83	Nick Haynes	DEF	19	70.3	1335
84	Dion Prestia	MID	9	81.1	730
85	Shaun Higgins	MID/FWD	15	78.9	1183
86	Ed Curnow	MID	22	89	1958
87	Jack Billings	MID/FWD	18	83.3	1499
88	Chad Wingard	MID/FWD	16	88.3	1413
89	Daniel Rich	DEF	22	98.1	2158
90	Brodie Smith	DEF	21	79.6	1672
91	Brad Sheppard	DEF	20	71.3	1426
92	Tom Hawkins	FWD	22	75.6	1664
93	Bailey Smith	MID	22	87.4	1922
94	Zak Butters	MID/FWD	10	76.2	762
95	Liam Duggan	DEF	14	78.5	1099
96	Taylor Walker	FWD	17	75.4	1282
97	Elliot Yeo	MID	12	83	996
98	Scott Lycett	RUC	18	85.6	1540
99	Ed Langdon	MID	21	85.1	1787
100	Adam Saad	DEF	22	69.9	1537
101	Isaac Smith	MID/FWD	21	93	1954
102	Taylor Duryea	DEF/FWD	21	71.5	1501
103	Sam Naismith	RUC	0	0	0
104	Dom Sheed	MID	22	91.4	2010
105	Jack Viney	MID	12	88.2	1058
106	Rory Sloane	MID	18	85.6	1540
107	Caleb Serong	MID	22	82.4	1812
108	Zac Bailey	MID/FWD	22	72.7	1600
109	Jordan Dawson	DEF	22	88.8	1954
110	Jarrod Berry	MID	9	50.1	451
111	Jacob Hopper	MID	21	88.9	1866
112	Zak Jones	MID	13	88.6	1152
113	Jy Simpkin	MID	22	95.5	2100
114	Luke Shuey	MID	7	87.6	613
115	Brandon Ellis	MID	18	93.8	1689
116	Jye Caldwell	MID/FWD	2	76.5	153
117	James Sicily	DEF	0	0	0
118	Jack Martin	FWD	11	62.8	691
119	Damon Greaves	DEF	6	49.7	298
120	Darcy Byrne-Jones	DEF	22	76.7	1688
121	Tom Lynch	FWD	12	71.4	857
122	Jack Higgins	FWD	19	69.1	1312
123	Hunter Clark	DEF	13	72.6	944
124	Josh Daicos	MID/FWD	17	71.4	1213
125	Shannon Hurn	DEF	15	87.8	1317
126	Jaidyn Stephenson	MID/FWD	19	84.8	1611
127	Toby Nankervis	RUC	16	83.4	1335
128	Peter Ladhams	RUC/FWD	15	72.7	1091
129	Adam Cerra	MID	18	87.3	1572
130	Connor Rozee	FWD	19	67.6	1285
131	Kane Lambert	FWD	13	77.2	1004
132	Tom Liberatore	MID	21	90.3	1896
133	Blake Acres	MID	18	66.1	1189
134	Jared Polec	MID	5	51	255
135	Jack Bowes	DEF	19	80.6	1531
136	Jack Lukosius	DEF	22	86	1892
137	Robbie Gray	FWD	16	72.6	1162
138	David Swallow	MID	21	89.5	1879
139	Devon Smith	MID/FWD	19	64.7	1230
140	Harry Perryman	DEF	16	85.4	1367
141	Darcy Parish	MID	22	105.5	2320
142	Lance Franklin	FWD	17	70.4	1196
143	Liam Shiels	MID	21	84.2	1769
144	Josh Jenkins	RUC/FWD	1	35	35
145	Jordan Clark	DEF	8	56.4	451
146	Jeremy Cameron	FWD	12	65.4	785
147	Jack Ziebell	DEF/FWD	21	100.1	2102
148	Bailey Williams	DEF	19	67.4	1280
149	Ben Ainsworth	FWD	17	69.5	1181
150	Tom Papley	FWD	22	65	1430
151	Oscar McInerney	RUC	21	76.7	1610
152	Gryan Miers	FWD	12	64.6	775
153	Angus Brayshaw	MID	22	66.5	1463
154	Will Setterfield	MID	8	60.4	483
155	Ben McEvoy	DEF/RUC	22	80	1759
156	Sam Draper	RUC	12	57.3	687
157	Mark Blicavs	DEF	21	71.9	1510
158	Rhys Stanley	RUC	16	77.6	1241
159	Aaron Hall	DEF/FWD	20	109	2179
160	Dan Butler	FWD	22	54.8	1206
161	Lachie Weller	MID/FWD	13	79.8	1038
162	David Mundy	MID	22	89	1958
163	Nick Vlastuin	DEF	12	76.1	913
164	Karl Amon	MID	22	98.7	2171
165	Marc Murphy	MID/FWD	14	55.9	782
166	Steven May	DEF	20	72.6	1452
167	Joe Daniher	FWD	22	72.2	1589
168	Brandan Parfitt	MID/FWD	21	76.6	1609
169	Ben Cunnington	MID	15	99.2	1488
170	Ben Keays	MID	22	108	2376
171	Charlie Dixon	FWD	22	68.4	1505
172	Nick Coffield	DEF	16	61.1	977
173	Bailey J. Williams	RUC/FWD	6	36.3	218
174	Jason Johannisen	DEF/FWD	20	48.2	964
175	Jamie Elliott	MID/FWD	13	73.9	961
176	Matthew Kennedy	MID/FWD	12	85.9	1031
177	Nick Hind	DEF/FWD	22	84.5	1859
178	Sam Powell-Pepper	MID/FWD	14	63.7	892
179	John Noble	DEF	22	74.6	1641
180	Dyson Heppell	DEF	18	94.8	1707
181	Jack Gunston	FWD	1	31	31
182	Liam Baker	DEF	22	72.8	1601
183	James Harmes	DEF	15	82.3	1235
184	Liam Ryan	FWD	14	56.5	791
185	James Cousins	MID/FWD	9	79	711
186	Rory Lobb	RUC/FWD	13	70.5	917
187	Noah Anderson	MID	20	81	1619
188	Michael Gibbons	FWD	11	61.5	676
189	Harris Andrews	DEF	21	67.5	1417
190	Matt Taberner	FWD	16	62.5	1000
191	Trent Cotchin	MID	17	75.8	1289
192	Oliver Florent	MID	22	72.6	1597
193	Marc Pittonet	RUC	13	70.1	911
194	Tom Doedee	DEF	21	64.1	1347
195	Will Day	DEF	5	68.8	344
196	Orazio Fantasia		13	64.5	838
197	Joel Selwood	MID	21	87.5	1837
198	Jack Newnes	MID/FWD	19	65.7	1248
199	Sean Darcy	RUC/FWD	21	93.7	1968
200	Bradley Hill	DEF	22	71.2	1567