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AFL Fantasy Draft 2019 recap and review

Warnie looks at the 2019 ADP to analyse the best and worst picks per round.

  • Warnie

Everyone has a story or two about how they drafted. Looking at the average draft picks (ADP) for the year in hindsight can be an interesting experience. Which players outperformed their ADP and who cost you big time with where you picked them.

Let’s take a look at picking the best and worst possible Fantasy Draft teams based on ADP from 2019. We’ll pick the onfield 18 for a 10 team league in a 5/7/1/5 set up. Players selected will only come from the round the ADP shows.

Best team

Taking into account total points, games played, average (as you do), here’s the best pick from each each round to put together a team. You could argue for a better pick from any given round, however, in making sure the full onfield squad is selected, some different thinking was there based on position.

1. Brodie Grundy (RUC) 122.1 / 22
Warranted his ADP of 1. Highest scoring player for the year by 142 points (to second ADP Jack Macrae), the position helped him. You could argue that you may have been able to pick a late ruck and done better – ie. Reilly O’Brien – but Grundy was there all year and would have been a very solid captain option for those leagues with captains on.

2. Jake Lloyd (DEF) 107.1 / 22
Although Whitfield with his 114 average was also in the second round, he only played 16 games. Lloyd was the first player picked in the second round and a worthy selection at that.

3. Zach Merrett (MID) 108.2 / 22
Always an interesting name in Draft (g’day m0nty), but this year Zerrett delivered in spades. Played every game and was the fourth ranked MID.

4. Josh Dunkley (MID/FWD) 111.1 / 22
May have looked a little lean in the first few rounds, but Dunks came home well to be the highest averaging forward.

5. Jack Crisp (DEF) 97.7 / 22
Second for points of all defenders. He’s played every game of the last five years, so was a ‘safe’ pick, but to increase his average by 10 points made this a cracking selection.

6. Tim Taranto (MID) 112.5 / 22
Most selection in this round coaches would have been reasonably happy with, but it is the third highest scoring and fourth highest averaging midfielder that has to be the pick here. Travis Boak is unlucky here.

7. Luke Parker (MID) 98.5 / 22
It gets a little lean here with only a couple of tons averaged for the rest of the draft. Parker was somewhat back to what we expected from him. The Tom Rockliff pick in this round would have neem a lot sexier – and looked like a bargain at various stages – but the Pig only managed 18 games.

8. Jarryd Lyons (MID) 97.5 / 22
Would have won a lot of coaches finals with some beast scores in the last few rounds. His team mate Mitch Robinson was possibly unlucky here following his outstanding 94 average season as was the 21 gamer Dylan Shiel.

9. Luke Shuey (MID) 101 / 22
The last player to play every game and average a ton. Fun fact, this was the first year Shuey has averaged over a ton.

10. Jack Ziebell (MID/FWD) 89.7 / 22
It is frustrating owning Ziebell, but he had a pretty decent run of form during the season. You couldn’t complain about his finals of 97, 92, 111 and 94. The best of a tricky bunch.

11. Tom Stewart (DEF) 95 / 22
Plenty of defenders were taken in the 11th round and Stewart was the pick of them ahead of Nic Newman and Christian Salem.

12. Michael Walters (MID/FWD) 93.5 / 22
Usually Walters finds a way to burn you, but playing 22 games with only four scores under 80, 2019 was a win for those who drafted Sonny.

13. Bachar Houli (DEF) 103.2 / 19
Despite missing three games, Houli ranked at No. 5 for points scored by defenders. Interestingly, Ricky Henderson at 125 would have pleased coaches early on, while Toby Greene came home strongly after being a flop in as a 13th rounder.

14. James Worpel (MID/FWD) 96.7 / 22
One of the steals of the draft. The Worpedo was the sixth highest averaging forward. Sadly, he won’t be available as a FWD in 2020… and his output is a bit of an unknown with Titch returning.

15. James Harmes (MID) 94 / 22
There was some hype around Harmes at the end of last season averaging 106 from the Fantasy finals and into the real finals. He outperformed his 83 average from 2018. Special mention in the 15th round has to go to Sam Walsh who averaged 92 and played every game.

16. Rowan Marshall (RUC/FWD) 99.2 / 20
Only available as a FWD when coaches drafted, but his addition of DPP and his almost 100 season made him a ripping selection despite not playing round one.

17. Daniel Rich (DEF) 88 / 22
One of the big surprises of 2019 and would have been a steal for anyone picking him considering he finished the season as the sixth highest scoring defender. Caleb Daniel would have been a great pick at 169 had he not been injured.

18. Jacob Hopper (MID) 93.6 / 19
Played the most games of all players between picks 171-180 and beat the more hyped Miles by an average of 8 points.

Best Draft Team
DEFENDERS
Jake Lloyd, Jack Crisp, Tom Stewart, Bachar Houli, Daniel Rich
MIDFIELDERS
Zach Merrett, Tim Taranto, Luke Parker, Jarryd Lyons, Luke Shuey, James Harmes, Jacob Hopper
RUCK
Brodie Grundy
FORWARDS
Josh Dunkley, Jack Ziebell, Michael Walters, James Worpel, Rowan Marshall

Worst team

Selecting the worst team takes into account firstly the drop in expected output followed by games played/total points. While it may have been easier to say someone was a shocking pick due to injury (and yes there are a few in here and they kill you), it’s those who you picked instead of a much better player that hurts the most.

1. Stephen Coniglio (MID) 103.7 / 15
The injury in round 17 knee injury on 0 is the only reason he is here in the worst picked. Cogs was going at 111 prior to the donut but he missed the last six rounds.

2. Devon Smith (MID/FWD) 79.4 / 7
Not only did Dev have a season ending injury, he was performing well below what coaches expected following his 107 season in his first year at the Bombers. The second round had plenty of hard luck stories. Dayne Beams only played nine games, Justin Westhoff went at 77 after averaging 102 last year. But the one that copped most ire from coaches was Angus Brayshaw averaging 88. Most took a bit of a punt on him as a second rounder and he let plenty down!

3. Sam Menegola (MID/FWD) 77.6 / 9
Three years of AFL… 95, 105 and 99 have been his season returns. Found himself on the outer.

4. Kade Simpson (DEF) 80.2 / 18
Some expected a slide, some expected a boost with the new kick-in rule… and Docherty out for another season.

5. Toby McLean (MID/FWD) 68.2 / 18
Will lose MID status! He didn’t play through the guts much at all and was dropped at one point of the season. Witherden also could have been the fail here.

6. Callum Sinclair (RUC) 76.6 / 14
More unlucky than being a bad pick in the sixth round, Sinclair’s injury dropped his average slightly but he was down on his previous year’s output where he averaged 92.

7. Connor Blakely (DEF) 74.8 / 14
Probably made it back around the same time drafters expected him to return, so no dramas there, but he didn’t rack up the 90+ average most expected making the punt on him not worth it. Callan Ward could have been in the same boat here.

8. Jack Steven (MID) 76 / 7
Spending a lot of time out of the game as he battled his mental health demons, Steven’s 2019 output when playing was a long way from his best. Sam Jacobs was also disappointing here as he was restricted to just five games while held out of the side by ROB.

9. Jack Riewoldt (FWD) 58.5 / 10
After an 85 average last season, most coaches would have banked on a 75+ average with 22 games played considering he had only missed three games in nine year and averaged under 75 just twice in that time. Special mention to Jeremy Howe for his 69 average, approx. 20 points below his expected output.

10. Brad Ebert (MID/FWD) 80.1 / 11
Initially MID only, there was some talk that Ebert would gain FWD status. That he did at round six when he was averaging over a ton making the Port Adelaide player a great selection in the tenth round. From here he was concussed on 31, missed five games and scored 64, 46, 103 and 33 before sitting out the rest of the year making his FWD status irrelevant.

11. Hamish Hartlett (DEF) 76.4 / 11
You’ve only got yourself to blame.

12. Zach Tuohy (DEF) 68.3 / 15
Six years without missing a game and coming off averages of 86 and 81, the Irish man was a disappointment this year.

13. Wayne Milera (DEF) 76.8 / 17
Started the year well averaging in the 90s. Got injured, generally scored poorly after. Not the most horrible pick, but the one that stands out in this round.

14. Trent Cotchin (MID) 70.7 / 11
Tonned up in round one, but then had seven scores under 75 after that. This round also saw Tom Mitchell (ADP 136) and Liam Picken (ADP 140) drafted with neither playing a game.

15. Tom Liberatore (MID) 76 / 15
Maybe some salary cap hype pushed him up the draft order, but you would have wanted more than 15 games and a 76 average from Libba. You got a full season and a 16 point better average from the first year Walsh in the same round.

16. Aaron Hall (MID) 80.7 / 6
Many expected him to star at North, but injury and mental health issues saw him play just six games. Special mention to pre-season hype boy Bailey Williams who averaged 62 from nine games.

17. Ben Jacobs (MID) 0 / 0
Concussion kept Jacobs out of the Roos’ line up all season. As under-performing/injured defenders, Hodge and Webster were also taken in this round.

18. Orazio Fantasia (FWD) 54.4 / 14
Lowest average since his debut season. Amazingly, he scored a couple of tons this year… but also had 7 scores under 50. Jarrad McVeigh was also a letdown here in the 18th.

Worst Draft Team
DEFENDERS
Kade Simpson, Connor Blakely, Hamish Hartlett, Zach Tuohy, Wayne Milera
MIDFIELDERS
Stephen Coniglio, Jack Steven, Brad Ebert, Trent Cotchin, Tom Liberatore, Aaron Hall, Ben Jacobs
RUCK
Callum Sinclair
FORWARDS
Devon Smith, Sam Menegola, Toby McLean, Jack Riewoldt, Orazio Fantasia

Average Draft Position 2019

Top 200 sorted by ADP.

ADPPLAYERPOSGMSAVGPTS
1Brodie GrundyRUC22122.12686
2Jack MacraeMID22115.62544
3Patrick DangerfieldMID/FWD21107.52257
4Patrick CrippsMID20101.52029
5Clayton OliverMID22105.92329
6Max GawnRUC21111.32337
7Stephen ConiglioMID15103.71555
8Josh KellyMID14115.91623
9Rory LairdDEF2296.92132
10Adam TreloarMID22113.12489
11Jake LloydDEF22107.12356
12Andrew GaffMID201112220
13Devon SmithMID/FWD779.4556
14Matt CrouchMID19106.22017
15Dayne BeamsMID988.7798
16Lachie WhitfieldDEF/MID16113.81820
17Angus BrayshawMID22881937
18Elliot YeoMID21102.72157
19Justin WesthoffRUC/FWD2077.31545
20Sebastian RossMID2294.32075
21Nat FyfeMID201052099
22Zach MerrettMID22108.22381
23Stefan MartinRUC2284.81865
24Lachie HunterMID2298.62170
25Steele SidebottomMID2198.52069
26Bryce GibbsMID1280.8970
27Gary AblettMID/FWD2188.71863
28Sam MenegolaMID/FWD977.6698
29Lachie NealeMID22104.72304
30Mitch DuncanMID22105.62324
31James SicilyDEF2283.61840
32Josh DunkleyMID/FWD22111.12444
33Isaac HeeneyMID/FWD2289.81975
34Jarrod WittsRUC22104.42297
35Dyson HeppellMID1793.81595
36Scott PendleburyMID22103.62279
37Kade SimpsonDEF1880.21444
38Dustin MartinMID/FWD2097.11942
39Brad CrouchMID22107.92373
40Dayne ZorkoMID22104.42296
41Marc MurphyMID1995.91822
42Tim KellyMID/FWD2296.92131
43Alex WitherdenDEF2174.81570
44Joel SelwoodMID2078.91577
45Toby McLeanMID/FWD1868.21227
46Taylor AdamsMID1095.1951
47Todd GoldsteinRUC2288.41944
48Lance FranklinFWD1070.5705
49Jaeger O'MearaMID2199.62092
50Jack CrispDEF2297.72150
51Rory SloaneMID2299.62191
52Jack ReddenMID2191.81928
53Ed CurnowMID/FWD2289.91977
54Shannon HurnDEF1991.41736
55Callum SinclairRUC1476.61072
56Tim TarantoMID22112.52476
57Marcus BontempelliMID22104.72303
58Travis BoakMID/FWD21105.72219
59Jack BillingsMID/FWD2298.52168
60Jack SteeleMID20961919
61Callan WardMID133
62Luke ParkerMID2298.52167
63Connor BlakelyDEF1474.81047
64Toby NankervisRUC978.4706
65Tom RockliffMID1899.31788
66Tom McDonaldFWD1563.8957
67David MundyMID/FWD2280.51772
68Tom PhillipsMID2290.51990
69Heath ShawDEF2282.51814
70David ZaharakisMID2079.51590
71Liam ShielsMID1995.41812
72Jack StevenMID776532
73Shaun HigginsMID1795.31620
74Jarryd LyonsMID2297.52146
75Mitch RobinsonMID/FWD2293.62060
76Dylan ShielMID2198.32065
77Sam JacobsRUC580.4402
78Jesse HoganFWD1266.1793
79Matthew SucklingDEF/FWD1884.71524
80Robbie GrayMID/FWD1981.21543
81Zac WilliamsDEF2092.71854
82Ollie WinesMID1293.31120
83Chad WingardMID/FWD1478.41098
84Ben McEvoyRUC1983.31583
85Luke ShueyMID221012222
86Jared PolecMID2288.21940
87Jeremy HoweDEF1969.41319
88Ben CunningtonMID22821803
89Jack GunstonFWD2076.11522
90Jack RiewoldtFWD1058.5585
91Tom HawkinsFWD2270.91559
92Brad EbertMID/FWD1180.1881
93Josh P. KennedyMID19100.31905
94Jack VineyMID2182.31729
95Ryan AbbottRUC17373
96Brayden FioriniMID2199.72094
97Brodie SmithDEF22871915
98Michael HurleyDEF1877.41394
99Jack ZiebellMID/FWD2289.71974
100Dale ThomasDEF2079.61591
101Shane SavageDEF2278.31723
102Jordan De GoeyFWD1684.31348
103Ed LangdonMID2292.12026
104Nic NewmanDEF2093.41867
105Jack MartinMID/FWD1683.41335
106Christian SalemDEF2089.61792
107Hamish HartlettDEF1176.4840
108Isaac SmithMID1984.91614
109Dom SheedMID22952089
110Tom StewartDEF22952090
111Mitch WallisMID/FWD1079.3793
112Zach TuohyDEF1568.31024
113Matthew LobbeRUC260120
114Callum MillsDEF2275.31657
115Matthew KreuzerRUC1582.71241
116Christian PetraccaMID/FWD2275.91670
117Michael WaltersMID/FWD2293.52056
118Andrew McGrathDEF/MID2274.71644
119Nathan JonesMID2273.61620
120Luke BreustFWD2268.21500
121Luke DahlhausMID/FWD2177.41626
122Touk MillerMID1890.91637
123Bachar HouliDEF19103.21961
124Tom T. LynchFWD1689.41430
125Ricky HendersonMID2296.62126
126Kane LambertFWD1886.61559
127Wayne MileraDEF1776.81306
128Toby GreeneFWD1698.41575
129Jeremy CameronFWD2087.51750
130Scott LycettRUC/FWD1883.41501
131James WorpelMID/FWD2296.72128
132Trent CotchinMID1170.7778
133Dion PrestiaMID2299.42186
134Bradley HillMID2288.71951
135Luke RyanDEF1880.11441
136Tom MitchellMID000
137Shane MumfordRUC1665.71051
138Mason RedmanDEF1968.91309
139Jarrod HarbrowDEF2170.71485
140Liam PickenFWD000
141David SwallowMID2287.91933
142Hugh GreenwoodMID/FWD1478.31096
143Blake AcresMID/FWD1967.51283
144Tom CutlerMID380.3241
145Trent DumontMID2188.11850
146Jordan LewisDEF/MID1262.3748
147Sam WalshMID2292.22029
148Tom LiberatoreMID15761140
149Rhys StanleyRUC1681.31300
150James HarmesMID22942067
151Bailey WilliamsDEF962558
152Jamie CrippsFWD1764.11090
153Luke DunstanMID1885.81545
154Jack DarlingFWD2271.31569
155Rowan MarshallRUC/FWD2099.21983
156Lachie WellerDEF/MID1782.51403
157Aaron HallMID680.7484
158Alex Neal-BullenFWD1461.6862
159Jayden ShortDEF1270.4845
160Aaron SandilandsRUC672.7436
161Jason JohannisenDEF1982.11560
162Daniel RichDEF22881936
163Luke HodgeDEF2066.21323
164Ben JacobsMID000
165Jimmy WebsterDEF859.1473
166Tom BellchambersRUC1571.61074
167Nic NaitanuiRUC372.3217
168Charlie CurnowFWD1165715
169Caleb DanielDEF/FWD1793.81594
170Rory AtkinsMID2081.41628
171Shaun BurgoyneDEF/MID1870.71273
172Anthony MilesMID1785.41451
173Dom TysonMID376.7230
174Jacob HopperMID1993.61778
175Orazio FantasiaFWD1454.4761
176Josh CaddyFWD1570.51058
177Kyle LangfordMID/FWD1770.61201
178Jarrad McVeighDEF662372
179Rory LobbRUC/FWD1579.31190
180Jamie MacmillanDEF1875.11351
181Brandon EllisDEF2084.81695
182Paddy RyderRUC/FWD1770.21194
183Dylan RobertonDEF000
184Brad SheppardDEF2282.41812
185Cameron Ellis-YolmenMID1087.9879
186Jack NewnesMID/FWD2069.71394
187Tom CampbellRUC23978
188Michael HibberdDEF1961.31165
189Tom J. LynchFWD2262.41372
190Ryan BurtonDEF1672.21155
191Paul SeedsmanMID1372.8946
192Dan HanneberyMID598.6493
193Steven MayDEF857.8462
194Josh J. KennedyFWD2054.11081
195Josh JenkinsFWD1175.1826
196Brandan ParfittFWD1772.21227
197Jamie ElliottFWD1467.6946
198Chris MastenMID1565.9989
199Hugh McCluggageMID2191.41919
200Reilly O'BrienRUC1895.51719

 

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