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AFL Fantasy Draft 2021 recap and review

Warnie looks at the 2021 ADP to analyse the best and worst picks per round.

Everyone has a story or two about how they drafted. Looking at the average draft picks (ADP) for the year in hindsight can be an interesting experience. Which players outperformed their ADP and who cost you big time with where you picked them.

Let’s take a look at picking the best and worst possible Fantasy Draft teams based on ADP from 2021. We’ll pick the onfield 18 for a 10 team league in a 5/7/1/5 set up. Players selected will only come from the round the ADP shows.

Big thanks to Heff from Keeper League Podcast for the data!

Click here to download ADP data in a spreadsheet.

Best team

Taking into account total points, games played, average (as you do), here’s the best pick from each each round to put together a team. You could argue for a better pick from any given round, however, in making sure the full onfield squad is selected, some different thinking was there based on position.

1. Jack Steele (MID) 121.4 / 22
The highest points scorer of the year was ranked 8th on ADP (5th for midfielders). Incredible season after a real Fantasy breakout the year before where he improved  his PB in 2019 of 96 to 113 (BCV). Averaged 133 from round 10 on.

2. Rory Laird (DEF) 111.7 / 22
Lloyd (5) and Whitfield (12) were ahead of him in ADP, but that midfield role was a big selling point for Classic coaches. Ended up as the best ‘defender’ in the game.

3. Jack Crisp (DEF) 101.8 / 22
Death, taxes and Crisp playing 22 games. You’re not only getting a great average from him, you’re getting someone who suits up every week.

4. Jarryd Lyons (MID) 117.1 / 22
His best season by far and some coaches may have questioned even being picked at 35, but he finished with the third best average and third most points for the year. A big end-of-season saw him average 128 in last six rounds.

5. Callum Mills (DEF) 110 / 18
Despite only playing two games in the last six rounds, what Mills did prior to this was enough to counter the four games missed. Even when he did pop back at for the first week of Fantasy finals, he knocked up a 152.

6. Touk Miller (MID) 122.1 / 21
Quite possibly the midfielder pick of the Draft. Missed the one game due to suspension, but to finish as the highest averaging player, after coming off his first season knocking up a Fantasy ton with 100.6, it was one hell of a season for the join Dane Swan Medallist (with Steele).

7. Ollie Wines (MID) 111.9 / 22
There were plenty of misses in this range with the last pick in the seventh being the best of all… and a Brownlow to boot. Wines has only averaged over 100 once (back in 2016) and was coming off seasons of 12 and 15 games, this was a mid-draft selection that got a big tick.

8. Nic Naitanui (RUC) 85 / 22
Probably the ‘worst’ of the best team but for all the other rucks, he was one of only three rucks to play all 22 games. If you were astute, drafting Sean Darcy (93.7 average, 21 games) for your bench in the 20th round would have seen you play him over NicNat.

9. Daniel Rich (DEF) 98.1 / 22
Significantly outplayed his ADP (89) to rank as the 35th best player on average this year but 4th for defenders for total points.

10. Bailey Smith (MID) 87.4 / 22
A round where very few players were hits. Smith was the best of a bad bunch.

11. Isaac Smith (MID/FWD) 93 / 21
Some may have drafted for the name, but to get a 90+ average from Smith was a nice return with his FWD status. Quite a few players who end up at the Cats play different roles and don’t hit the Fantasy numbers they’ve done in the past… especially as a 30+ year old.

12. Jy Simpkin (MID) 95.5 / 22
Averaged 105 after the bye, you’d be happy with him as your M6. Brandon Ellis, had he stayed on the park, may have grabbed this spot.

13. Jaidyn Stephenson (MID/FWD) 84.8 / 19
Talked up during the pre-season, the former Pie was solid for most of the season, pumping out 11 scores of 80 or more.

14. Jack Lukosius (DEF) 86 / 22
A bit of a need for the team here to get Lukosius, but was the only player in this round to play all 22 games and a mid-80s average isn’t bad for your final defender on field.

15. Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD) 100.1 / 21
That move to half-back was a winner! A sleeper for a lot of coaches who ignored his sub-40 average next to his name. Gained DEF status during the season to add flexibility for the 30-year-old who averaged the first Fantasy ton of his career.

16. Aaron Hall (DEF/FWD) 109 / 20
I’m not sure there’s ever been a better 16th round pick. Starting the season not making the team for round one, then came in as sub for 11 in round two and also having a 35 (injured), from round 7 on, Hall averaged 120 in his new role in the backline. There’s a good chance he possibly had this ADP due to auto-drafting and then was dropped to free agents early in the season. What a gun!

17. Ben Keays (MID) 108 / 22
Who would have predicted the guy with an ADP of 170 to be the 11th highest scoring midfielder? He was coming off his best season to date (average of 79) and said goodbye to any tagging responsibilities to smash out an average 40+ better than his career Fantasy average.

18. Nick Hind (DEF/FWD) 84.5 / 22
Had a great season as the Bombers’ recruit was played as a defender. Another FWD who added DPP and was among the best for both lines.

Best Draft Team
Rory Laird (2), Jack Crisp (3), Callum Mills (5), Daniel Rich (9), Jack Lukosius (14)
Jack Steele (1), Jarryd Lyons (4), Touk Miller (6), Ollie Wines (7), Bailey Smith (10), Jy Simpkin (12), Ben Keays (17)
Nic Naitanui (8)
Isaac Smith (11), Jaidyn Stephenson (13), Jack Ziebell (15), Aaron Hall (16), Nick Hind (18)

Worst team

Selecting the worst team takes into account firstly the drop in expected output followed by games played/total points. While it may have been easier to say someone was a shocking pick due to injury (and yes there are a few in here and they kill you), it’s those who you picked instead of a much better player that hurts the most.

1. Lachie Neale (MID) 94.5 / 15
From the No. 1 MID last year with a Brownlow around his neck to the 46th ranked player on average, Neale was a big bust for Fantasy Draft coaches who spent their first pick on him. He had the worst average of top 10 on ADP behind Reilly O’Brien while Taylor Adams only played fewer games.

2. Matt Crouch (MID) DNP
Didn’t get on the park this year… work out where he might fall in 2022!

3. Dustin Martin (MID/FWD) 81.3 / 16
Hasn’t averaged less than 93 since 2012, his third season. Injury ended his season in round 18, but the damage was done before that.

4. Stephen Coniglio (MID) 59 / 5
Just five games to his name, including one as a sub when returning from injury. Cogs was a disaster of a pick for a lot of M2 or M3s.

5. Jeremy Howe (DEF) 73.4 / 8
Another knee injury thwarted his season, but numbers weren’t going to hit close to the 107 (BCV) that sat next to his name from 2020 which probably gave him a higher ADP than he warranted.

6. Michael Walters (MID/FWD) 61.5 / 16
A couple of years of 90s made him a F1/F2 target but the midfield time wasn’t there with the development of the young blokes in the engine room.

7. Zac Williams (DEF) 71.5 / 14
Flashbacks to Roy in the pre-season… but the Blues ended up playing him in the backline (which actually gave him better numbers than in the MID at times). Worst part was the injury niggles.

8. Luke McDonald (DEF) 68.1 / 11
Only 11 games, but was hot property last year and a few bought in due to a run of scoring in Coronaball. Looks like the points could have been there if he was what Ziebell/Hall were able to.

9. Trent Dumont (MID) 70.3 / 14
Lowest average of the players in the 9th round. Took him until round 9 to get into the team following injury.

10. Zak Butters (MID/FWD) 76.2 / 10
Many were hoping for a breakout, but injury didn’t allow him to get going. Half of his scores were good (119, 83, 99, 90, 91) but there were 50s and 40s in the other half.

11. Sam Naismith (RUC) DNP
An auto-draft drama? Naismith didn’t play after injuring his ACL last year.

12. James Sicily (DEF) DNP
Some thought he would play in the back-half of the season. He didn’t.

13. Connor Rozee (FWD) 67.6 / 19
Breakout? Not yet.

14. Jared Polec (MID) 51 / 5
Five games at 51. Oh boy!

15. Josh Jenkins (RUC/FWD) 35 / 1
One game. Auto-draft? Or was it his 86 that he scored in the pre-season game? Whatever, this pick hurt.

16. Will Setterfield (MID) 60.4 / 8
Wasn’t part of the Blues’ plans this year and when he was, scores weren’t fantastic. A lot of coaches were looking for improvement, but with MID only status, it was a shocker.

17. Marc Murphy (MID) 55.9 / 14
Probably lucky to have 14 games to his name as the Blues nursed him as sub to his 300th and subsequent retirement.

18. Jason Johannisen (DEF) 48.2 / 20
Generally has been a solid enough late round pick (maybe 18th round is too high even based on previous season’s numbers), but a half-forward role… and plenty of time in the sub tracksuit, made for his worst return of his entire career despite playing 20 games.

Worst Draft Team
Jeremy Howe (5), Zac Williams (7), Luke McDonald (8), James Sicily (12), Jason Johannisen (18)
Lachie Neale (1), Matt Crouch (2), Stephen Coniglio (4), Trent Dumont (9), Jared Polec (14), Will Setterfield (16), Marc Murphy (17)
Sam Naismith (11)
Dustin Martin (3), Michael Walters (6), Zak Butters (10), Connor Rozee (13), Josh Jenkins (15)


Average Draft Position 2021

Top 200 sorted by ADP.

1Max GawnRUC22108.62389
2Brodie GrundyRUC20106.52129
3Lachie NealeMID1594.51417
4Zach MerrettMID22110.32427
5Jake LloydDEF2198.22063
6Clayton OliverMID22108.72391
7Jack MacraeMID22115.92550
8Jack SteeleMID22121.42670
9Reilly O'BrienRUC2086.21724
10Taylor AdamsMID14100.91412
11Tom MitchellMID22115.62543
12Lachie WhitfieldDEF1594.81422
13Patrick DangerfieldMID/FWD1386.81128
14Steele SidebottomMID/FWD2188.41857
15Lachie HunterMID/FWD2185.21790
16Matt CrouchMID000
17Rory LairdDEF22111.72457
18Andrew GaffMID2197.22041
19Josh DunkleyMID/FWD1191.51007
20Tom RockliffMID12727
21Adam TreloarMID1387.21133
22Marcus BontempelliMID22107.92373
23Christian PetraccaMID22110.92439
24Josh KellyMID/FWD21103.72178
25Dustin MartinMID/FWD1681.31300
26Dayne ZorkoMID/FWD21108.92287
27Scott PendleburyMID/FWD1884.41519
28Rowan MarshallRUC/FWD1389.71166
29Todd GoldsteinRUC2285.81887
30Jack CrispDEF22101.82239
31Tom StewartDEF2096.81936
32Tim TarantoMID22107.82371
33Luke ParkerMID2299.32185
34Mitch DuncanMID10100.31003
35Jarryd LyonsMID22117.12576
36Travis BoakMID2197.72051
37Sam WalshMID221092397
38Nat FyfeMID/FWD1584.51267
39Cameron GuthrieMID20109.92198
40Stephen ConiglioMID559295
41Jeremy HoweDEF873.4587
42Dylan ShielMID763.1442
43Matt RowellMID1255.3663
44Callum MillsDEF181101980
45Brayden MaynardDEF2281.51792
46Jayden ShortDEF2293.42054
47Sam DochertyDEF1498.61381
48Caleb DanielDEF2186.91824
49Jordan RidleyDEF21801681
50Patrick CrippsMID2081.81635
51Josh P. KennedyMID2188.91866
52Isaac HeeneyFWD2076.21523
53Tim EnglishRUC/FWD1880.31446
54Michael WaltersMID/FWD1661.5984
55Andrew McGrathMID1484.61184
56Jed AndersonMID779.7558
57Toby GreeneFWD1784.81441
58Touk MillerMID21122.12565
59James WorpelMID2078.81576
60Andrew BrayshawMID20104.32085
61Sam MenegolaMID2086.61732
62Dan HoustonDEF2179.91678
63Tim KellyMID1984.31601
64Zac WilliamsDEF1471.51001
65Tom PhillipsMID/FWD2273.11608
66Brad CrouchMID2095.21904
67Bachar HouliDEF1291.61099
68Alex WitherdenDEF987.8790
69Luke DunstanMID1294.61135
70Ollie WinesMID22111.92462
71Nic NaitanuiRUC22851869
72Jarrod WittsRUC386.3259
73Hugh McCluggageMID221002201
74Christian SalemDEF2192.91951
75Luke RyanDEF1987.41660
76Luke McDonaldDEF1168.1749
77Shai BoltonMID/FWD2077.71553
78Kyle LangfordMID/FWD1786.61472
79Jaeger O'MearaMID1895.91726
80Jordan De GoeyMID/FWD2084.31686
81Hugh GreenwoodMID1587.71315
82Trent DumontMID1470.3984
83Nick HaynesDEF1970.31335
84Dion PrestiaMID981.1730
85Shaun HigginsMID/FWD1578.91183
86Ed CurnowMID22891958
87Jack BillingsMID/FWD1883.31499
88Chad WingardMID/FWD1688.31413
89Daniel RichDEF2298.12158
90Brodie SmithDEF2179.61672
91Brad SheppardDEF2071.31426
92Tom HawkinsFWD2275.61664
93Bailey SmithMID2287.41922
94Zak ButtersMID/FWD1076.2762
95Liam DugganDEF1478.51099
96Taylor WalkerFWD1775.41282
97Elliot YeoMID1283996
98Scott LycettRUC1885.61540
99Ed LangdonMID2185.11787
100Adam SaadDEF2269.91537
101Isaac SmithMID/FWD21931954
102Taylor DuryeaDEF/FWD2171.51501
103Sam NaismithRUC000
104Dom SheedMID2291.42010
105Jack VineyMID1288.21058
106Rory SloaneMID1885.61540
107Caleb SerongMID2282.41812
108Zac BaileyMID/FWD2272.71600
109Jordan DawsonDEF2288.81954
110Jarrod BerryMID950.1451
111Jacob HopperMID2188.91866
112Zak JonesMID1388.61152
113Jy SimpkinMID2295.52100
114Luke ShueyMID787.6613
115Brandon EllisMID1893.81689
116Jye CaldwellMID/FWD276.5153
117James SicilyDEF000
118Jack MartinFWD1162.8691
119Damon GreavesDEF649.7298
120Darcy Byrne-JonesDEF2276.71688
121Tom LynchFWD1271.4857
122Jack HigginsFWD1969.11312
123Hunter ClarkDEF1372.6944
124Josh DaicosMID/FWD1771.41213
125Shannon HurnDEF1587.81317
126Jaidyn StephensonMID/FWD1984.81611
127Toby NankervisRUC1683.41335
128Peter LadhamsRUC/FWD1572.71091
129Adam CerraMID1887.31572
130Connor RozeeFWD1967.61285
131Kane LambertFWD1377.21004
132Tom LiberatoreMID2190.31896
133Blake AcresMID1866.11189
134Jared PolecMID551255
135Jack BowesDEF1980.61531
136Jack LukosiusDEF22861892
137Robbie GrayFWD1672.61162
138David SwallowMID2189.51879
139Devon SmithMID/FWD1964.71230
140Harry PerrymanDEF1685.41367
141Darcy ParishMID22105.52320
142Lance FranklinFWD1770.41196
143Liam ShielsMID2184.21769
144Josh JenkinsRUC/FWD13535
145Jordan ClarkDEF856.4451
146Jeremy CameronFWD1265.4785
147Jack ZiebellDEF/FWD21100.12102
148Bailey WilliamsDEF1967.41280
149Ben AinsworthFWD1769.51181
150Tom PapleyFWD22651430
151Oscar McInerneyRUC2176.71610
152Gryan MiersFWD1264.6775
153Angus BrayshawMID2266.51463
154Will SetterfieldMID860.4483
155Ben McEvoyDEF/RUC22801759
156Sam DraperRUC1257.3687
157Mark BlicavsDEF2171.91510
158Rhys StanleyRUC1677.61241
159Aaron HallDEF/FWD201092179
160Dan ButlerFWD2254.81206
161Lachie WellerMID/FWD1379.81038
162David MundyMID22891958
163Nick VlastuinDEF1276.1913
164Karl AmonMID2298.72171
165Marc MurphyMID/FWD1455.9782
166Steven MayDEF2072.61452
167Joe DaniherFWD2272.21589
168Brandan ParfittMID/FWD2176.61609
169Ben CunningtonMID1599.21488
170Ben KeaysMID221082376
171Charlie DixonFWD2268.41505
172Nick CoffieldDEF1661.1977
173Bailey J. WilliamsRUC/FWD636.3218
174Jason JohannisenDEF/FWD2048.2964
175Jamie ElliottMID/FWD1373.9961
176Matthew KennedyMID/FWD1285.91031
177Nick HindDEF/FWD2284.51859
178Sam Powell-PepperMID/FWD1463.7892
179John NobleDEF2274.61641
180Dyson HeppellDEF1894.81707
181Jack GunstonFWD13131
182Liam BakerDEF2272.81601
183James HarmesDEF1582.31235
184Liam RyanFWD1456.5791
185James CousinsMID/FWD979711
186Rory LobbRUC/FWD1370.5917
187Noah AndersonMID20811619
188Michael GibbonsFWD1161.5676
189Harris AndrewsDEF2167.51417
190Matt TabernerFWD1662.51000
191Trent CotchinMID1775.81289
192Oliver FlorentMID2272.61597
193Marc PittonetRUC1370.1911
194Tom DoedeeDEF2164.11347
195Will DayDEF568.8344
196Orazio Fantasia1364.5838
197Joel SelwoodMID2187.51837
198Jack NewnesMID/FWD1965.71248
199Sean DarcyRUC/FWD2193.71968
200Bradley HillDEF2271.21567

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT

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