Birdy’s “Lay Down Your Guns” Strategy

This is a new strategy I have thought of maybe using this year, I call it, Lay Down Your Guns, I thought of it after seeing Secret Squirrel’s article, and I realised that the more risk you take the more potential your team has. A lot of people are going to write this strategy off straight away and I don’t even know if I will have the guts to use it, but I thought it was worth a mention.

To put it plainly this strategy basically involves getting the 2nd best,  so  for example  instead of Franklin and Goodes, you might select Rioli and ROK.  Both these players definitely have the potential to be top 7 forwards this year, and if not, they are going to get you reasonable scores throughout the year.

The way this strategy could potentially work for you is that by cutting out the expensive premiums and picking cheaper that you think are going to have a good year this year is you end up with more money to spend on getting more of these type players in your initial squad. This will give you higher scores early on and be helpful, especially if you are going for the car. The great thing about this strategy is that many of these cheaper players can still be considered premiums and have been great scorers already.

Here’s a few players you might be thinking of picking as more unique options, well maybe you could pick more of them and save money  hoping they will all boost their scores.

Sam Mitchell he has been mentioned a lot throughout the DT Talk website, he has been a premium pick up for a while now, and this year won’t have the responsibility of captaincy on his shoulders which may have worried him last year, copping criticism that Hodge should be skipper.

Brent Stanton scored well last year, this year his new coach Hirdy has said he is going to give Stanton as much of the ball as possible. We have already seen this help his scores in his first two games of NAB.

Kieren Jack is getting better every year, really showed his potential last year, although Kirk wasn’t much of a ball magnet last year it has been said that Jack and his team mate Hannebery will step up in his absence.

Cyril Rioli possibly played a little injured last year, while still managing reasonable scores. Said to receive more of a midfield role this year which would certainly improve his scores.

ROK definitely played injured for parts of last season and scored similar to Rioli, also was given a tagging role on occasions that will hopefully be lost with his new coach.

Nick Riewoldt is a gun and under priced. Everyone should have him anyway, simple as that.

The 2 foward JB’s Jonathan Brown and Jared Brennan both scored well last year, Brown had injury problems and if he can get over those he will be a great pickup, and Brennan is off to a new club where with few experienced players along with Ablett and Risky-telly he may be looked to a lot through whats hopefully a midfield based role.

Jack Grimes is already in a lot of teams he cheap, and has played well in both NAB cup games so far.

Nick Malcelski was a great pick up last year and will hopefully pickup again this year to be a nice unique pick.

To show you how his DT strategy can reduce the number of rookies in your starting side and get your scoring well early here is a look a possible team, that has had its expensive options removed and replaced with cheaper alternatives.

DEF: Enright, Duffield, Malceski, Grimes, Fisher, Otten, Heppel ( Toy Poupolo Hibberd )

MID: Bartel, Stanton, Mitchell, Anthony, Hannebery, Swallow ( Mzungu Harris Callinan )

RUC: Mumford, Jolly ( Smith Campbell )

FWD: Riewoldt, ROK, Rioli, Sylvia, Zaharakis, Dennis-Lane, Knights ( Krakouer, Matera, Richardson )

This team leaves two rookies starting on the field, first round draft picks !

61 Comments

  • First

    • well that’s nice isn’t it.

      Not a bad idea but could be a bit risky. Basically every mid-priced forward is rumored to be spending more time in the mid-field this year, not all of them can be true

      • haha yeah powerboy, what happened? blew ur load after “first” and couldn’t even leave a comment on d article?!!!!!!

        It is a risky strategy and not one I’ll be going with. You’ve only got so many trades to use to upgrade to the guns u should have had from the start. Plus make it that little bit harder every week to pick a captain when u don’t have a Swan or Goddard to fall back on.

        • i’ll be sure to blow out 2400 in ya face if i play you this year!

          Tend to agree with your comments though. People going with mid-price players will have to trade them out come finals time as Zaharakis & Dangerfield can’t compete vs Buddy Franklin & Chapman.

          Also, good point on the captain choice….another reason not to go mid-price strategy.

    • does anyone else feel like a lg fries after looking at gc logo on supercoach!!!!

  • i have another league going the number is 878409. so if you are interested come on board.

  • Broughton or Duffield ?/??? Can’t decide!

  • Decent idea, but there’s no real need to apply it over the whole team. You’re creating problems for yourself in terms of your teams scoring capacity further down the line. Take your rucks for example – I can’t see that strategy being an advantage in a position where there are players who are clearly head and shoulders above the rest.

  • Zaharakis or Dangerfield?

    • If you can’t have both, which I definately am, then Dangerfield all the way. Both are dual position Fwd/Mid’s so have one in midfield and one forward perhaps? Gives your team more versatility

  • I just don’t believe it’s necessary with so many good rooks this – thanx GC Suns.
    Trent Dennis lane could easily average 60, something a rookie could do too.
    Then there’s the fact you are TOTALLY shooting yourself in the foot, by eliminating obvious capt choices like Swan/Boyd/Goddard, having to rely on Riewoldt, Bartel & Mitchell, who both have the bye in rnd 6, essentially leaving you with Roo as your only viable capt. (acc. to sample team.)
    And that sample team would only apply to someone chasing a league win.
    I think the best recipe is to combine this strategy with more Guns’n’Rooks effectively leaving you with a well balanced team of premiums, mid-pricers & rooks!

    • I’m with you. I can see these other strategies being more important in 2013 – the year AFTER GWS’ rookies flood the system.

      This year why take an educated guess on a midprider when you can safely expect an equal scoring return for a lower price from the ridiculous number of rookies? Either take a punt on the young cheaper rooks (like Matera or Darling) or take a more conservative approach and lock in the mature age rookies (Duigan and Coad).

      IMO the only cheapies worth taking a punt on are those established players returning from injury (Otten/McLean) or those recently traded in to fill a specific role (Gamble/Laidler). The only drawback from this is that it will take longer to trade up to guns if all your upgradable players are starting from a low price base.

      • Yep, got Otten, Gamble & Knights- that’s enough for me.
        Just in case you were interested, some price rises last year:

        Rockliffe $101k > $340k ave 81, after 11 games, (265k ave 79, after 9)
        Ph.Davis $94,500 > $172k ave 53 after 6 games. (139k ave 59 after 4)
        Nason $89,500 > $222k ave 64 after 6.
        Banfield $94,500 > $238k ave 68 after 7. 15pt ave more than Davis = $50k diff.
        Shuey. $94,500 > $229k ave 75 after 6
        Petersen $94,500 > $200k ave 62 after 5
        Pods $78k > $327k after 7 (can’t read my writing, ave 80 odd)

        Did that at the end of last year as a guide.
        Last year I held onto some rooks a bit too long, could have upgraded earlier instead of waiting the extra week for $12k and sacrificing 40-50pts………

      • As a Blues man I hope Laidler is good, but I remember us getting Saddington a few years ago and him not really doing what we hoped for. Mark Austin could be good and Bower is a runner if he manages to stay fit (and out of Jarrad Waite’s way). They might move Yarran down back and Kane Lucas did a bit of a running off half back in the NAB matches. Duigan looks good too maybe and Marcus Davies will hopefully get better and could pressure Joseph. Simon White might come back as good or better than last year before his season finished unexpectedly.

        What I’m getting at is Laidler is no certainty to be playing a lot. Sure the Blues have had defensive problems but I reckon no one would have said that Collingwood were developing a strong backline five or six years ago by giving game time to a bunch of rookies including Maxwell and O’Brien and Toovey (dunno how long he’s been around).

        Hope he plays a lot but then I hope the rest of them do too.

  • The could possibly work if you want a high DT ranking at the end of the season cause you will get good points early but for the league win do you really want to be playing finals with some of these players – or would you be happy needing to trade (trade upwards and possibly down trading some of these players to get some cash) to finish with a Swan / Sandilands / Goddard / Chapman etc? Plus you can probably go for one or two of these injury prone / fallen gun players but not make a entire team up.

    Good article though – it has left me with something to consider but seems a bit too risky. Enjoying the articles that are more from left field rather than the Gun / Rookie Strategy.

  • This is kinda what I did last year, decided to start the season without Swan, Ablett, Chapman & Goddard, believing I could really use the money elsewhere and that I could pick these players up at a discount when upgrading.

    It allowed me to pick Dangerfield and Tippett over “risky” options like rockliff and Pods, It allowed me to get on Wells, McVeigh and Ball instead of “risky” midfield rookies like Scully.

    In the end all three Premiums just proved they are worth every cent of their asking price and my team was a total failure ending up with my worst ranking ever, and only making 1 of 3 grand finals, which I lost due to the fact I had run out of trades!

  • I tried this strategy last year and it worked well except for one problem – picking a Captain.
    Without a true premium player like Swan or Goddard in your team it’s really hard to pick the captain each week and even with the use of Calvin’s Captains my captain choice only averaged around 100 last year, which is good but those extra points can be a big deal some weeks.

  • I really like this team for two reasons :

    1. Except for Mumford, I believe all the players you picked will average at least as much as last year. And many of them could become keepers. And in terms of trades, a single trade will be probably do the job if you want to upgrade some of them.

    2. You only have the cream of the crop in terms of rookies. All the ones you will pick will be certain starters and will average pretty well. Considering the byes this year, you will need them to score well and don’t want to have a “gumbleton” playing on your field every second week.

    But I do agree with some of the comments above. You need captain potential guns in your team. I didn’t pick Goddard last year because I didn’t see any upside in him last year and that was a mistake.

    So for your team, I would just downgrade a couple of them and get Swan and Goddard in and it should look really good. Anyway that’s wahat my team will look like.

  • There is way too many rookies with walk up starts who will score just aswell as a knights, adcock, dangerfield, zhahrakis, morton etc if not better. plus i wouldnt bet on these dudes doing better than their current averages.
    Guns/Rookies all the way.

    • Amen to that SD. Guns and rookies is definately the way to got because come finals time you want al of your mids to avg 100+, your forwards and backs to avg 90+ and your rucks to avg 80-85+ and it is definately the best way to come about doing so. In my team i currently have 14 guns who averaged 85+ last year which means that i only need 8 more keepers in my team by september.

      • by the time the finals arrive,his side will b how he wants it so stupid comment,though alot of them blokes i would consider guns or close enough to,so i cant see how your side is going to b much differant than others,not much of a write up worth anything as far as im concerned,just a run of the mill side u havent done anything radical or came up with any special formular…i think u just wanted to get an artical put on dt talk,so u had a win there

  • yeah there may be some merit to this system but i personally dont rate it. U r basically backing a 50-50 chance of the player a) doing well and scoring u the same points as a premium and b) being consistent enuf to make u money.

    Say for example u hav zaharakis who may bust out a few decent scores but some weeks may go missing, u find urself stuck with a mid priced dead weight who u cant upgrade to a premium because u r short on cash or who u shudnt downgrade to a rook because they have already increased in value to the point where people who gave them a chance r cashing in.

    Bascially its a gamble i wud never take personally, mostly because u will inevitably end up with at least a few underachieving mid priced players and really do u want to be sitting at home praying for zaha, duff, mummy and stanton to hav a good one while the rest of us sit bak and watch swannie, boyd, sandi and chappy tear it to shreads… i think not

  • Theory seems solid although I still can’t see my defence without Goddard. However in following the stategy would need to do so.
    Will look at doing a team on this basis and will post later. In the meantime, wanted to let all our DT followers know that I have also set up a new league known as”Bandi’s DT Talk”. Code number is 262859. I have already included Dr Dreamteam in it to watch what his strategy is over the year.
    PLEASE only enter this league if you are an experienced serious Dream teamer.
    If you are a novice, I suggest you open up a few public leagues of your own and enter the serious private leagues after you have gained a bit of experience.

  • An interesting concept. At the moment I have a little bit of a mix. GnR in the mids, with so many good rooks coming through it’s hard to ignore them. But then I have a similar line up to this for my backs and forwards. It has allowed, what I think, will be a solid line-up that has a lot of potential.

  • Wanted to let all our DT followers know that I have also set up a new league known as”Bandi’s DT Talk”. Code number is 262859. I have already included Dr Dreamteam in it to watch what his strategy is over the year.
    PLEASE only enter this league if you are an experienced serious Dream teamer.
    If you are a novice, I suggest you open up a few public leagues of your own and enter the serious private leagues after you have gained a bit of experience.

    Have submitted again as this may have got lost in the general comment about original post.

  • Cheers Birdy, love the article.

    I like the idea of this, because it has so much upside. But it’s like playing roulette… this strategy is similar to betting on a single number – if it works, its got a great payoff, but you’re more than likely to fail. I do like hearing these alternate strats, because i think one year soon a new strategy will win the car, just like that mid-price team won a few years back when all the rage was Guns and Rooks.

  • I can see thus team being competerive overall, however I can’t seeing it get anywhere near top 2000. No swan, Goddard, chapman. These are proven performers, less rookies means less price rise. Means you won’t have as much money for upgrades. I’m all for having some mid pricers, and cheaper premiums but constructing a whole team around them without a reliable captain selection just wouldn’t work. Yes, there may be some rookies who don’t shine like we think… However you should have enough with comparitive scores to some of your players, that cost next to nothing. Great write up, but you need more guns in your team. Otherwise you waste too many trades getting them in

  • I agree with a lot of the comments already made, it seems risky. It relies on your crystal ball having just come back from the cleaners, all shiny and clear. My strategy, for the last 3 years, has been to seriously load up on rookies, have the bare minimum of guns and a few mids, leaving you with plenty in the bank. I talking like $1.5m in the bank. Then as the season progresses, you dont need to use that crystal ball, you just buy the players that are having good years and performing. It works for the league win, for me anyway with 3 flags in a row. It doesnt work for the overall though, but you do get some big scores towards the end of the year.

    • One of my mates plays it that way as well. Giving himself a butt-load of cash to upgrade with, and generally getting good money out of the rooks as well.

      Perhaps a strategy not necessarily loading up on cheap premiums, but definitely using them and then loading up on the solid mid-pricers? Very risky, but if you can fill your team with the Dale Thomas’ and Michael Barlow’s of this year you’ll be getting a far higher return come finals time.

      If you are going for the car then this all-round approach might be the a goer this year. With GnR being so popular teams are going to be struggling for that “unique” pick. Instead, if they don’t go with unique picks they go with the unique strategy, and it pays off, then it may be the path to freedom.

      • I also used this last year – also proved good for the round win, got 7th in one round last year. However it doesn’t work in strong leagues as you will cop too many early losses. So against my shithouse mates its brilliant, however for a challenge i’m in one of the DT leagues this year and can’t see it doing the business???

  • If you want to give this strategy a go then why not. No one has a crystal ball and can say for certain what will happen. Since 90% of teams will look ridiculously similar if you got off to a good start with a team like this not many would catch you. Personally would love to see the winner of this year take these sorts of risks.

  • Never skimp on your premiums ;)

  • By far… this is the 2nd best idea I’ve ever heard?

    Although you are stretching a bit…everyone knows Riewoldt Penis Hands is 1st best

  • Doing this i came up with this team :

    B.Goddard C.Enright B.Deledio J.Grimes N.Malceski A.Otten M.Coad (Puopolo Toy Hibbered)

    D.Swan S.Mitchell K.Cornes B.Stanton H.Bennell D.Heppell (D.Harris I.Callinan P.Contin)

    D.Cox J.Fraser (Z.Smith T.Derickx)

    N.Riewoldt C.Sylvia ROK C.Rioli M.Morton D.Zaharakis C.Richarsdson(T.Mzungu D.Prestia B.Matera)

    Still some guns in there to avoid the captaincy problem

    $113,900 left

  • excuse the ignorance but, while i get the general idea, what exactly is the definition of premium?
    have seen the question posed before, but not answered:-)

    • your best proven dter’s in each position.. goddard, swan, abblet, boyd, montagna, chapman i would say basically anyone over 400 k

  • just joined bandi’s league.

    I think every team, no matter how many years you have been doing this, has to have something a bit different….. a smokie. obviously if you don’t have players like goddard, swan, boyd etc and your rookies who are definately going to find a lot of ball early in the season, then you will most likely struggle to put your hand up for the car.

    but having said that i think the person who finds a mid-priced ball magnet who has a break out year has a big advantage early in the season.

    • And hey, if you take a couple risks early on and they don’t pay off, then you can just trade up and aim for your league. You will realistically know your chances of winning come week 5 or 6.

  • I don’t get it, why would you want to save money if your not gonna buy premiums?
    I’ve got some risks in my team but I’ve got alot of premiums too. Here it is:

    B: Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Duffield, Malceski, Otten, Heppel (Toy, Duigan, Puopolo)

    C: Swan, Boyd, Hayes, Bartel, Swallow, Gaff (Harris, Wallis, Mzungu)

    R: Cox, Petrie (Smith, Bailey)

    F: Chapman, Didak, Sylvia, Riewoldt, Knights, Krakeour, Matera (Richardson, Weedon, Smith)

    I have risks such as Otten, Knights, Krakeour, and Petrie, but i’ve also got 14 premiums. You just gotta have a good balance of both, not load up on one.

    P.S, what do you think of the team?

  • agree with most of the coments, its a very risky strategy ( 1 i think i am too scared to try ) but just thought it was worth a look at.

  • Magpies – fairly good team, however Petrie will miss 2of the first 3 rounds. Don’t know about having swallow and gaff, didak has missed a fair chunk of preaseason. I personally think you should have 1-2 more gc rookies. They have like 13 experienced players. The rest must be kids so who cares how many u get. I know it’s only one week, but one of the byes you will be missing montagna, Boyd, riewoldt & Goddard. I personally think that’s too many premiums to miss out on one week. So onto another topic??

    Does anyone think they could afford to burn a couple of trades by trading out guns and getting them back in? If you are going for overall win itay be necessary!!

    • Not worth it imho.
      Like dropping Montagna for round 4 bye, then when you trade him back in he’ll score a 68. Murphy’s Law!!!
      Trade are & will always be like gold, – injuries, suspensions, resting of stars, (yes, even with 2 byes,) stars with really minor injuries/niggles, may find themselves being rested in, in favour of ultimate team success.

      WE have ALL never experienced a year of DT where there have been byes & perhaps more importantly, the dreaded sub rule!!!
      Everybodys aiming to get in Gablett after his 2nd bye- I am too- but come round 10……. who knows what other issues we”ll be faced with?

      Will Swan be on 95 @ 3qtr time then get subbed off??
      Will we have a rook on ground that gets subbed on 5 mins into the final qtr and score 11pts???

      Take risks- it’s a must if aiming for the car- just don’t take too many!
      And remember, there’s not much we can do, when like last year, coaches had Roo as capt in the game he did his hammy & scored 20!

      • Please don’t bring that ’20’ up any more!! I still get choked up thinking about it!
        Calvins captains was so powerful, that I am sure I was not alone in placing (for the first time) the big C on Roo. (Understanding that Cals captains are totally buyer beware and he actually has no influence on torn body parts) :)

  • Zaharakis or Knights?

    • For those dream team masters out there, join the DT Talk Masters league!
      Code: 520649

    • Depends. Both are risky IMO. Knights is a proven DT scorer but is injury-prone. Zaharakis is on the bubble in many peoples opinions from going from a mid-ranger to a premium.

      Perhaps we are being a bit premature on Zaha. He reminds me a bit like Dangerfield. Has heaps of talent but can at times find it hard to get his hands on the pigskin, and how many of us were burnt with Danger last year. Similar situation if you ask me. Zaha is getting heaps of tyre inflation. By his coach and by the DT community. But like Danger of 10′ we might be bitterly dissapointed.

  • On a different player; Am I the only one with huge reservations on Krakouer? What is his JS like? I just feel he is going to be one of those fringe players who will be in and out of the side like a yoyo. he wasn’t exactly a prolific scrorer for Richmond (yeah I know, it’s Richmond, but still). And don’t forget in the NAB cup I believe it was Buckley coaching when he was thrown in the middle and got the ball. When he was played forward he was very quiet. Any thoughts? He is the one player in my team giving me the heeby geebies, apart from Hurley and Watts.

    • Watts is a big NO for me. Even if he has a better season than last year, which I don’t think he will, he will play a key role like CHF which won’t bring in many DT points.
      I’m putting krakour in my team, if he is a regular starter, the players around him will bring him into the game, especially if he plays midfield. plus he is cheap!! can’t go to wrong.
      Hurley is too expensive for my liking, haven’t seen anything to show he will be a ball magnet or kick too many bags this year.

    • everyone is picking him because he is playing for the best team.. he has the x factor that will add even more to an already awesome team.. he carved up the wafl, 41 touches and 4 goals in the gf pretty much says it all..
      he is a completly different player to the one that played for richmond..

    • Collingwood goes & recruits Tarrant & Krakouer, who “COULD???” both walk straight in for the injured N.Brown & T.Goldsack, (glandular fever.)
      Then you’ve got Didak who wont be at peak fitness early on- worth the punt on Krak, but hey we’re still 4 weeks away……..

  • I really want to put stanton in my team to replace bartel with those injury and sickness problems he has had i dont think he can pull a full year together but i dont like the look of that final bye stanton will be in…

    • Did this last year like had geelongs selwood over ablett etc..didnt work for me…spent the entire year wishing i had ablett not selwood, swan not ball….etc…

  • Mate, I’ve only played for two years but I know one thing, you NEED the best players. I am willing to loose a few matches to have a gun team in the finals. No Cats, Shin Boners, Bombers or Liberal party players for me. I will take a few hits but when I make the eight, I will eat ‘Mid Priced’ teams alive!!!!!!

    • Good to see you put yourself out there though. And bless every bastard that takes part in this thing!