Mid-price strategy: Secret Squirrel

We received an email from a Dream Team coach this week who only goes by the name of “Secret Squirrel”. He or she is going to pop his or her head into DT TALK every now and then. Stay tuned to more!

The NAB Cup is here and this is when we get to view all the young talent and the hype train starts to build. This then normally flows onto the favourite styled structure in Dream Team called the Guns and Rookies approach.  It slowly started to gain traction when the likes of Palmer burst onto the DT world and raised in price enough to be a straight swap for Bartel.  An article from a previous winner peckin away was analysed and he was the golden child to all things DT. Coaches around the globe opened their eyes to the potential of loading up your team with these rookies and surrounding them with the best of the best. The following year a coach with a team named The Convicts won the competition with a more “mid priced” strategy.  The masses for whatever reason, viewed this as pure luck and thought lighting does not strike twice.

Can you really blame the masses, the guns and rookies approach allows you to have all the Swans, Goddards, Abletts, Chapmans of this world and surround them with players that supporter groups believe will become superstars based on YouTube clips and draft hype.

I have decided to put together a bit of a team that will be dismissed by the masses, but maybe, just maybe it could work?

It is a common misconception that a mid priced team cannot have some premiums in their starting squad, well that is just incorrect, I will explain below the concepts.

In the backs, it may look similar to the typical team, it will still have the likes of Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio and Otten (some may even say the addition of Duffield as typical).  Then you surround your starting 7 defenders with some cheaper mid priced players with some scope for increasing their scoring. You normally look for players either changing their role in the team, have some end of season form or are returning from injury which caused them to receive a discount.  This team has been rounded out with Birchall, Wood and Otten. It looks like Birchall and Wood have a potential change in role to a more DT friendly style in 2011 while Otten is returning from injury.  Now this is the key to the mid priced team, the bench is filled with the best of the best rookies, Coad, Toy and Duigan are sitting on your bench.  This will be a common theme throughout all lines of the team.

I will just add comment, if one of the mid priced players fails you can always downgrade to a rookie that you missed and free up cash for future upgrades. Considering I am not dealing with trading in this thread, so I will just leave the comments at this point.

We move onto the midfield, now this is where the MAJOR difference will start to appear.  The common theme in most guns and rookies team is simply load the midfield with 3 or 4 of the best and surround this team with 4-5 rookies.  Here is a completely different approach, with some overlap to the guns and rookies team.  You’re still slightly crazy not starting with the potential DT captain of the year in Swan. Then you want some solid players below this point, maybe not the most expensive, but still solid.  Bartel, would play with a broken elbow if he had to and maybe did this last year, he is solid as a rock.  Another player that has the potential to be a star, but suffered from an injury interrupted preseason last year, but can increase his average is Murphy. Now it is searching for some mid priced players with scoring improvement Greenwood and Sherman are two potential options.  Greenwood also has the potential to be used as a Dual Position link, so that adds some flexibility, Sherman is at a new club and no longer will be on the tagging roster. If you get 8 solid games from them they could come close to being a straight swap for the likes of Boyd, Ablett, Pendlebury and Montagna.  Taking a little liberty with the use of the term not starting rookies and having Harris on the field, he has previously played AFL and should get plenty of games for the Gold Coast to protect those kids.

The bench is also the best of the best, with the addition of a Dual Position link in Mzungu.  Swallow and Atley are the other two players to the strong bench.  As you can see, Swallow is on the bench instead of starting on the field. Remember if a Greenwood or Sherman fail, you can pick the best rookie you missed out on, you will not see a Relton Roberts in this team!

Rucks, well what can I say, does anyone have a crystal ball? Cox, this old dog still has some ability and all reports say he is fit and strong, he can also drift forward so I think he will play close to 22 games and be close to the second best ruck option, if not the best in 2011. When I say the best, I mean in total points, maybe not average, Sandilands should have that covered.  Call me crazy, but Fraser is cheap and is added to the list, just give me 8+ solid games and a solid upgrade should appear. The bench is Smith (almost a lock) and J Tippett, only for the Dual Position link into the forwards to cover those pesky byes.

Do not ask me why, but it is often the forwards that actually get made last. This year, the top end forwards all seem to have some question marks, due to age, price or durability. Riewoldt would be a shock if he was not in most teams, top 4 side, reduced price due to injury in the previous year, all points to being a bargain.  Franklin is running around the midfield, could either lead to a Pavlich styled reduction in points, but there are some cheap points to be had by Franklin, maybe less Standard Deviation in scores.  Now this is when heaps of guns team will be drooling of Colin, I am not in this camp, if O’Keefe is running around, I see some potential for being underpriced and he does have a history of durability. M Morton, had a solid end of the season, can you ignore his move to the midfield? All reports stated that he moved back to the VFL to build his fitness base for life as a midfielder and well he went BANG in the last 6 or so weeks.  Normally I am worried about second year players, but Fyfe, just seems to have a DT game, kicks, marks and tackles, plus can play forward. Just stay on the park and pump out a few of those 100+ games then ready for that Chapman upgrade. Petrie is cheap assuming his feet are fine and also provide cover for my rucks thanks to the link with Tippett. Again, taking liberties with no rookies on the field and playing Krakouer in the starting 7 forwards, he has played at AFL level and was BOG in the intraclub match, I smell DT LOCK.

The bench once again has players that are in many teams starting best 22, Prestia, Matera and Callinan. Two more DP links on the bench, looks good for avoiding those Crispy Cream’s throughout the year.

The bank account as $30,400 in the kitty, Dual Position links on all lines and a super strong bench.

I fully expect people to hate this team, people to not understand how you can handle looking at names like Sherman and Greenwood in the midfield, that is the land of the Davids and Goliaths, not those mid sized players. Swing away public, hate it, comment on it, I just ask you to open your eyes to the possibility that it may not seem as crazy as you first thought!

178 Comments

  • I tried both strategies over the last 2 years and i can tell you that the guns & rookies strategy is the way to go.

    These are the mid-priced players i used last year: A. Selwood, Hall, Dangerfield, Tippitt, Ziebell, Ball, Kennelly, Waters, J. Hunt and most didn’t work out.

    The thinking of loading up on middle range players just because you think they can improve is more hope than anything else. Stick to guns & rookies.

    • The other thing in favour of a Gun/Rookie approach is that a 97k rookie can have a crap three game average of say 35-45 and still see an increase in price. If your mid rangers have a bad patch… you lose money.

      Guns/Rooks the only way to go.

      Still slotting in one or two Mid rangers isn’t exaclty a bad Idea as it gives you that opportunity for a unique pick. Still, with a unique pick comes risk too.

      Rhys Palmer is my Mid ranger that I reckon might be worth a punt… Just don’t quite have the balls to put him in my team for more than a ten minute spell at the minute though!

      • Oh yeah Guns and Rookies easy there aren’t as many risks overall. Taking a risk on one or two mid-priced players isn’t bad at all you could score big time, take Douglas or even Daisy Thomas last year terrific pick-ups.

    • I think your approach last year didn’t work because you chose a bunch of dud mid-pricers. (No Offense)
      A. Selwood = in a dud team plus very inconsistant
      Hall = too old and un-reliable
      Dangerfield = way overated, and never really a DT type player
      Tippitt = Can not handle a defender to save his life!
      Ziebell = good, but as injury prone as a little kid playing with fire
      Ball = too many superstar players to compete with, just like when he was at st kilda
      Kennelly = again pretty good, but very injury prone and too many running defenders to compete with at Sydney Waters = absolute gun, even though he was was in a ‘dud’ team
      J. Hunt = Like Danger never been a DT type player

      If you do the appropriate research and find the RIGHT Mid – pricers. (for your team)
      then the Mid price approach can be very effective and DEFINITELY give you a chance at the car. Trust me all you non-believers.

      • Most of those players i picked were all the rage last pre-season but i had a mountain of other problems with a range of things not just picking the wrong mid-priced players.To put it plain and simple, it was a complete disaster last year for a player who finished top 500 the previous year to that.

        Thoughts about the below players last pre-season (from memory)
        Hall = Was on pre-season fire, won the BOG of NAB cup
        Dangerfield = Was a DPP that could of avg. 80 plus
        Tippitt = Was the next big thing, DPP in the ruck
        Ziebell = could come good if not injured
        Kennelly = cash-cow, somewhere in the 200k mark
        J. Hunt = he was quite cheap as well
        Ball, Waters & A. Selwood both avg. well when they where actually playing. Ball avg. 97 from round 6 onwards

  • Jack and Rockliff will perform as good or better than most 400k+ players this year…just look at their 2nd half of last season! Good way to lock in some young, fit, durable players that will score 95+ this year over 24 rounds!

    Then coming into mid-late season look to upgrade 1 or even both to players like Pendlebury etc.
    Cheap guns and I bet they will perform as good as Cross, Hodge, Gibbs and so on who are $50k more to start with!

    • why will they ? they didnt last year and hence their current price …

      • 3rd year breakout….Rockliff averaged 97 in his last 13 games….in Jack’s last 6 games he pumped out 6×100+ games! Nuff said….

  • Oh yeah, would rather take a punt on blokes in midfield that are just below 400k and are in their 3rd season, total breakout time!

    No point punting on key position forwards like Watts…just doesn’t see the ball enough.

  • There’s nothing wrong with a mix of both guns and mid-range players. The secret to doing well in DT is to grab players with the most potential to score above there starting price is valued at. This will often include both mid-ranges and rookies. For example, last year i finished 30th overall and had the following mid-range players from round 1:
    -Jack Ziebell
    -David Hille
    -Luke Ball
    -Beau Waters
    -Nick Malceski

    But Also started with Dustin Martin, Jack Trengove and Michael Barlow in the midfield from round 1. So its all about finding the players with the best potential to score above their initial pricing, which will vary from year to year. One year there may only be rookies with potential so a ‘Guns and rookies’ strategy would work best. The number 1 DT strategy should be a ‘Scoring Potential Strategy’

    • There are so many ways to win this competition, it just seems that a majority of people view the GnR strategy to be the only way to win the competition. It has been shown in previous years that it is possible to win using a more mid priced approach.

      I think any decent coach using whatever strategy should never overlook value when you see it. I think the main difference between the two approaches is the GnR will have names like Boyd, Montagna, Penlebury then surrounded by Atley, Swallow, Gaff, Polec… A mid priced team may have more Anthony, Murphy, Vince, Scully, Trengove… and have a Swallow, Atley on the bench and not the starting 22.

      It is just a different mindset and placing risks in different places. It is important to remember that a Mid Priced team can be transformed into a GnR team in the space of a few trades. Then you’re not potentially stuck with the wrong rookie or wrong premium.

      This team was posted to allow people to consider another option in DT. I am sure you will see 1000’s of GnR styled teams that it gets boring answering the question.

      What midfield looks better

      Swan, Boyd, Montanga, Bartel or Swan Boyd, Pendlebury, Selwood?

      There have been people that can prove every year that DT can be won without making a single trade, so that shows you there is more than one way to crack a nut…

      • Sorry dude, that last paragraph is the worst thing I’ve read on any post!!!!
        Secret Squirrell or Secret squizzle???

      • you are hedging your bets with all your comments …. if you are advocating a pure mid priced strategy then i think you will really struggle … of course picking an otten, petrie, knights as a mid priced choice is smart just like malceski and waters proved for many last year … but loading up with mid priced players is a recipe for disaster …. and pls let me know who has won the competition without a single trade ?? wtf ?

        • He isn’t saying it has been won, he is saying it could have been won. It isn’t hard to retrospectively calculate a team, based on their starting prices, that would have scored extremely well throughout the year. It is just exceptionally unlikely that it will happen. It is sort of a Dream DT.

    • Hey Q-Stick, i understand your point but ‘Potential’ is such a easy word and guessing it is very hard. I picked many last year based on potential but the point is don’t pick a bucket load if there aren’t many avaliable. This year they’re alot of rookie priced players that are better value then picking a Fwd line of four or five Mid-priced players.
      Let’s say you want Rioli this year but if that means giving up on say, Chapman for the extra cash to get Rioli, would you do it?

      • i’d rather have say didak and rioli vs chapman and a $290k forward yep

        • Exactly, don’t fool yourself by picking a fwd line of morton and others based on mid priced potential. A Didak and Rioli fwd line is much better than Chapman and a mid range scorer just for the sake of it :)

      • In using the word ‘potential’ in not advocating picking a lot of mid-range players. I’m saying, pick players who you think will score well above what their initial pricing is set. For example, after watching last preseason, anybody and everybody picked up barlow because they saw he had huge ‘potential’ score well above 100k price tag. That potential was also shown in players like malceski and waters.

        That being said you cant pick your entire squad based on potential either because you still need that solid scoring base to make sure your side will still be competitive. These include the likes of chapman, goddard and swan.

        In regards to your question about the rioli and chapman trade-off. If rioli had done enough in the preseason to indicate he was going the throw up chapman like numbers than yes, otherwise stick with chapman because your still trying to maximise the points output of your squad.

        @SD it has been proven theoretically in previous years that the the overall prize could have been won without trading (i think it was in the prospectus one year), however no one has actually achieved it for real to my knowledge.

        • Don’t get me wrong, potential in players like Barlow stuck out like a sore thumb last pre-season but when you’re picking a bunch of mid-priced players because your mind set is “I think he can avg. more than what he’s worth” then your going to get smashed from round one (Just like i did last year). You may find a smokey but it’s not worth sacrificing Chapman and Goddard to find that extra cash needed. Chapman plus mid range hack or Didak & Rioli, i would pick the latter just my opinion.

    • I agree, you just have to try and find those players you think will improve the most. One year it might be that no mid price players really look like they have upside, the next it might be that there are plenty. THis year with the GC it really makes it hard to ignore the Gun/Rookie approach, also with players like Petrie, Krakouer, foley, Otten etc. it has made this strategy all the easier.

      But perhaps a well thought out mid strategy could work, it definately would be unique, and you would have alot of players other teams do not. If players like Swann and Goddard start a little slow, teams could be down 100-200k in no time at all. Mind you I tried that theory with Ablett (thinking he was over-priced and wanted to wait till he fell in value) and watched him blitz the first 7 odd rounds, to the point where he actually increased in base value!

      A passing thought of mine was to leave Swann out and hope that he does start a bit slow but as stated above that strategy is frought with danger.

      • Great point.

        Next year will be similar with GWS coming in. There are just so many rookies that look like they are gonna get, not only game time, but points to go with it. Players like Swallow, Mzungu, Harris, Krakouer and the like just mean you have extra cash lying around to spend on some premiums.

        The mid-price strategy is definitely going to be a unique one this year, and there will most liekly be some coaches who get it bang on. If they do their research, like SS has obviously done, and stay in touch then there is every possibility they can score just as well as the GnR guys.

        I think the scoring potential line is basically how the game should work, but a lot of people forget that at the start of the season. Everyone is usually thinking cash cows to up your value but there is no reason why some of the mid-price players can’t improve by 50k or so. It is just that this year, with all of the potential gun rookies that look like they might jump by 250k+, it becomes less atractive to play the mids.

        Great discussion.

      • Is it frought with danger? I don’t know. Swan may get 110 on average but then say a Hodge gets 102 average He is more than 180k cheaper. Hodge would certainly go up more in value than Swan based on those ‘guesstamated’ figures, plus, the extra 180k would definately come in handy for rookie/Mid pricer upgrades later on which (again based on those potential figures) would earn you far more than 8-10 points per round.

        Swan isn’t always the best choice, as far as I’m concerned.

        • Agreed. Like Shano said, it is highly possible he is going to drop in price if he doesn’t get an amazing start.

        • Im not sure, Swann is such a gun and really helped lift my team from sub-par to half decent last year. I also don’t agree with the made by secret squirrel about the guns/rookies aproach being boring and safe. The SINGLE most important thing in DT in my opinion is knowing when to trade.

          People could have identical teams at the start of the season but finish with vastly different scores by the end of the year based on their trade management. That is where the key to dreamteam success is. And I think with rookies you are getting maximum return on your investment.

          This year I think your going to see some of the strongest teams yet. Sooo many rookies that will play.

  • Bit of a DT novice here, so excuse my ignorance. Cash wise, what is considered Premium, Mid-Range and Rookie?

    • Its a tough one to answer because sometimes premiums are undervalued due to injury or a bad run of games (Yes even premiums can have a form slump).

      Generally speaking anyone above 400k is a premium.
      Anyone priced from around 180-400 is a mid-range
      Anyone under that 180 price is a rookie.

      The gun rookie approach (which IMO is the only way to go) is loading ur team with as many premiums as possible and then budgeting enough to fill the remaining spots in your team with rookies. The catch is though that ur rookies NEED TO PLAY. You will never win buying all premiums and then filling ur bench with 80k players because they will never get a game, which in turn means never rise in value.

      Hope that helps :)

  • Thanks to Lakey 91 from bigfooty for the team:

    Below is the team, that without a single trade, would have won the 2010 DT competition! The ideal starting squad for 2010:

    Goddard, Brendon $455,700
    Sam Gilbert $391,500
    Hodge, Luke $366,800
    Mackie, Andrew $365,100
    Lake, Brian $356,900
    Malceski, Nick $242,800
    Waters, Beau $152,800

    Davis, Phil $94,500
    Stratton, Benjamin $89,500

    Swan, Dane $523,500
    Pendlebury $454,700
    Rischitelli, Michael $309,600
    Jack, Keiran $272,400
    Scully, Tom $157,500
    Barlow, Michael $105,800

    Martin, Dustin $149,500
    Howlett, Ben $77,800

    Sandilands, Aaron $419,800
    Leuenberger, Matthew $202,100

    Warnock, Robert $101,800
    McNamara, Seamus $77,800

    Chapman, Paul $494,500
    Goodes, Adam $434,800
    Harvey, Brent $388,900
    Thomas, Dale $336,300
    Douglas, Richard $289,000
    Rockliff, Tom $101,100
    Podsiadly, James $77,800

    Grant, Jarrad $96,700
    Gumbleton, Scott $94,500

    Now i’m sure everyone has different interpretations of the terms ‘gun’ and ‘rookie’, but by me the only players on this list I would classify as ‘guns’ are those that are priced above the 350k mark. There are 11 players that fit the bill here but had I come across a round one opponent who selected mackie and lake as their premium defenders I would have had a chuckle to myself.

    ‘Rookie’ priced players in my eyes are those that cost less than the #1 draft pick of the year – so in this instance it is scully @ 157k. There are 13 players who fall under this category but the most important thing to note here is that a number of them were not named round 1 – Davis, Howlett Rockliff, Pods and Grant. Finding the best rookies requires a lot of research and for this to pay off, you must often go against the odds and back your judgement – instead of trading out rockliff and pods last minute

    ‘Mid-pricers’ are players that are priced below the 350k ‘gun’ mark, but higher than the top draft pick. THE PLAYERS SELECTED IN THIS CATEGORY ARE WHAT WOULD HAVE WON THE COMPETITION OUTRIGHT WITHOUT USING A SINGLE TRADE. Out of the 6 players from this range – Malceski, Rishitelli, Jack, Leuenberger, Thomas and Douglas, the only one I would have considered selecting is Malceski. Honestly, had I faced an opposition team in round 1 with these 6 names, I would have been very, very confident……and by round 22 the opposition would have been laughing all the way to their nearest toyota dealership to pick up the keys.

    The moral of the story…….guns and rookies work, but mid-pricers win championships!

    • In the end this would of been a great team only if DT was in a video game world where players are robots that don’t get dropped and injuries are non-existent.

      By the way you would’ve made a trade when Barlow got injured mid year so there’s one trade.

      • Just putting it out there mate, I thought it was an interesting read and figured others probably would too, so no need to be a smart ass. By the way it’s not my team, by the way players did get dropped, injuries did occur and by the way both martin/howlett covered for barlow from round 15 onwards. Here’s the link if you’d like to add anymore helpful comments

        http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=78b90f03c81178388f8558fbfb8ca94e&t=789485

        • Yes, you probably would have traded Barlow out, but the point is that you would not have needed to.

          It’s the Dream Dream Team.

        • Sorry it did sound a bit like a smart ass comment mate, i read the post when it first came out incredible research, nicely written. What i was trying to say without sounding as bad as it did, that i just doubt that someone would ever have the guts to go through without a trade because anything can happen :)

          • Thats fine mate, all good. I was basically just paraphrasing what was in the original post. Just imagine if you had actually used all 20 trades with that starting side…….

  • What is a better option, downgrading rioli to knights and giving myself around 200k free space to give myself 5 premiums in the mid which would upgrade redden and Anthony to Judd and goodes, is Anthony in the same scoring bracket or not quite? Also is it better to stack up on players playing in the mult bye rounds like Brisbane, freo, melb if u r going for the league win and not worrying so much about dpp?

  • Anyone else considering that mid-priced players MAY be affected more than Guns or Rooks by this years sub rule?
    And what’s no point in “retrospective theoreticals…..” why even bother! Too much time on your hands?
    Especially in a year with byes!
    Don’t get sucked in peeps!!!!

    • I would think this most likely for established mid-price players returning from serious injuries (Drew Petrie) or poor form in 2010 (Chad Cornes). Younger midprice players would probably be given on field time to develop or fill a role.

      • Just thinking a Gun will be less likely to be subbed off & most importantly NOT start the game as a sub, where there is every chance a mid-pricer could start as sub, see little game time and depreciate tremendously in value- and likewise a rook can’t depreciate THAT much, if he is the sub.
        Tht’s the way i see it, anyway……..

        • I think its important to draw distinctions between different types of midpriced players if you want to use a midpriced strategy. Perhaps something along the lines of ‘fallen premiums’ vs ‘improving gun youngsters’ vs ‘underpriced injured guns’ vs ‘garden variety DT plodders’.

          Anyone got any predictions of which players will cop the DT kiss-of-death and be regular subs for their teams?
          I’m thinking perhaps Setanta or (at worst) Thornton for the Blues. Or perhaps a young aggressive midfielder like Kane Lucas who can’t get a regular senior start? Or perhaps the sub position will be rotated (which could be DT hell)?

          • I like your 4 categories- spot on!
            I don’t know why, but i can see T.Goldsack as a sub for the Pies, on occassions, but as you mentioned, & it makes perfect sense that the sub position will be rotated.

  • Don’t like the mid-priced strategy. As what Team Director said in last year’s Prospectus, Sell high and buy low and I’ll be using this strategy in the 2010 season and will be using guns and rookies.

    The 2010 winner, TAGers won it even though he started the year with a retirees: Goodwin and two players with LTI’s: Barlow and Kennelly.

    Good luck for 2011 and if all your rookies play for round 1, you’re in a strong position to win the F6 Cruiser.

  • Anyone keen on Ricky Petterd ? $286500 ave 76 over 6 games ?

  • Jeez – SS’s strategy isnt very popular. I think with the wealth of mpps this year, it is a reasonable strategy. Maybe his strategy would be more popular if he said pick only premiums, keepers and players you think will improve. Makes sense to me.

    Does anyone know if TAGers has made his starting team public?

    • BAC:
      Goddard (K)
      Enright (K)
      Goodwin
      Hodge
      Malceski (K)
      Kennelly
      Waters (K)

      Farmer (K)
      Maguire

      CTR:
      Swan (K)
      Ablett (K)
      Bartel (K)
      Ball
      D. Martin (K)
      Barlow

      Jetta
      Banner

      RUC:
      Hille
      Leuenberger

      Warnock (K)
      Skipper (K)

      FWD:
      Chapman (K)
      N. Riewoldt
      Harvey (K)
      Gray
      Medhurst
      Hall
      Peterson

      Hitchcock
      Gumbleton

      K = Kept in team for all 22 rounds

      • This is 2010 DT winner TAGers starting lineup

        • Thanks Totes!

          Malcesky, Kennelly, Waters, Ball, Hille, Leuenberger, Grey, Medhurst, Hall – that looks like a mid priced strategy to me!

  • SS is on the right track. If 95% of competitive players go GNR, then a midpricer strategy only needs to win 1/20 times to be getting the right odds…. and since a mid pricer won it 2 years ago…

    As is was stated earlier the obvious mistake is trying to play too many midpricers to accommodate the theme rather than picking players on merit.

    Regardless, good article SS, wish you good luck in your quest to beat the naysayers.

    P.S. I’ve been craving to try a midpricer strategy, but I refuse to make two teams (cheat) and I have so much money riding on the season with mates I dont want to mess up a winning formula.

    • I honestly don’t think this styled team is for everyone, at worst create a team along the lines of a midpriced team and have a play around with different combination.

      This then may help open your eyes to where there may be some value. You may start to feel that there is value in the mid priced forwards.

      Zaharakis, Jetta, Morton, Watts, Fyfe and Petrie. This means you can reduce your premiums on this line and then load up on a few more guns in the backs and mids.

      Sometimes when creating a team you blinker yourself to the options and combinations. Try removing a Chapman from your GnR team and see where that takes you. Try removing that 4th gun midfielder and replace him with a cheaper option, then see where that takes you.

      I think creating a mid priced team can open your eyes to players that you may have not considered if you just constantly create GnR styled teams.

  • which is better…

    A) Broughton, Brodie Smith, Bartel, Chapman, Isaac Smith

    or

    B) Grimes, Adcock, Murphy, O’Keefe, Prestia

  • I get why the like of swan, goddard, reiwoldt and harris are must haves in any good team, but why delidio?? Yes, he’s listed as def/mid which is nice and he’s mega durable. but i don’t really rate him as a great buy at 370,000odd. He doesn’t have a high ceiling and only averaged 73.5 in his last 4 matches of 2010. I can understand him being selected and may yet make my team but everyone seems to have him locked in already. at this stage i’m liking connors over lids.

  • interesting strategy…….not sure about some of the player choices such as greenwood, birchall, fyfe. worth a go so i’ll see what i can come up with.

  • whens the next episode boys im starten to get withdrawels

  • Interesting strategy. It depends more on the research, the luck with injuries, and trading the right cash cows at the right time. So either strategy could work.

    On another note: Nathan Lovett-Murray. I have read nothing on him so far. Is he on anybody’s radar, even though Essendon have a bye in the last round?

  • random question but iguess this is the place for it..

    anyone have any thoughts on Pavlich + Franklin vs Sylvia + Brown?

  • DT TALK Champions League – DT TALK Podsiadly (League invite code: 612519) – still open!

  • Well, far as I’m concerned, be it guns, mids or rookies, you’re looking for growth. If you have a gun who’ll drop in value, it’s not particularly worth it. Rookies tend to be more popular for growth, as they often have greater potential, but a 50% growth on a rookie and a 50% growth work out the same in the end… It’s just being cautious with the mids you choose – some will be better, some not…

    So, my midpriced players at this stage:
    Adcock – I can understand why people don’t want him, but for me he’s just too cheap
    Knights – Adcock again.
    Petrie & Otten – too cheap.
    Callan Ward – Smokey #1… i’ll be watching him closely in the pre-season, but i’m predicting that he’ll end the season with a 90 average, so for me he’ll be worth it… if i’m right… gotta watch the preseason, and if he’s in, then watch the first few rounds.
    Ben McEvoy – Smokey #2… My prediction is for a breakout this year… may or may not happen, but i’m hopeful…

    • Agree with you on the Knights and Adcock. Atlhough, I don’t have Knights as I think if fit Adcock gets a game. Neil Craig, appears to me at least a little more fickle. I’m just not so sure that he will get a game 100% of the time he’s fit. Still if he’s getting games would be a bargain.

      For me, Rhys Palmer is one that I’m keeping a really close eye on. He’s a running machine that will just clock up possessions, the only concern is his disposal. While it doesn’t make a difference if he sprays a kick in DT, Harves will send him straight back to the WAFL if his kicking is sub par. In his favour, the forums in dockerland say both at training and during games Rhys’s kicking appears to have improved dramatically… Did anyone here manage to see the Freo/WC/Hawks NAB games?

      I see a few things in favour of picking Rhys though… Injuries may give him more of a hold on a spot in the side if he sprays a couple, Mundy and Hill (if fit) will pick up the tags. Rhys towards the end of 2008 was getting tagged, yet still was racking up good DT scores, if left to run and gather possessions could really score well for DT coaches brave enough to select him.

      I’ve had him in and out about fifty times…

      Anyone else got any smokies they are toying with putting in their team?

  • I also loved the article and the beauty of it is that “it raises questions”. Everyone has been saying nothing but guns & rookies and in my opinion it is only because of the large number of GC rookies being available that this theory holds so much weight yet at the same time so many people are saying not to select too many GC players in your original squad because of the early byes and trade them in later. I think this is stupidity at it’s greatest. – Select a player from clux x only to trade him into a GC player after round 3. I value my trades far too much to be wasting them on trades that may gain you $30K. At the end of the day even with 7 GC players from round 1, there is no reason to suggest that your team would perform poorly in round one as at least 6 of them could have been on the bench anyway.

    One point does need to be clarified for this argument to continue – definition. What is a gun, rookie, mid price etc. Someone made a comment earlier that Petrie and Knights are not “mid priced” players – they are “undervalued” players. I believe “mid priced” is mid priced irrespective of whether he be undervalued. I have some :guns” in my squad that are undervalued.
    Is a gun a player who has a value of over $400K or over $350K? Is a rookie someone under $120K or anyone no greater than Swallow (number 1 draft pick)? Therefore where does the mid priced player sit?
    My determionations are:
    Gun – $350K and above
    Rookie – $160500 and below
    Mid priced – anywhere in between.

    The other thing that strikes me as weird is the comment that you must have balance on all lines. No good having all your guns in the midfield but having a poor defence. If Goddard scores 120 points in round 1 it is 120 points whether he be a defender od a midfielder. I haven’t read any rule stating that a particular position gets a bonus over another position!! I fully understand the thought of thre being more midfield options therefore always play Goddard etc in defence but i take that “only to a point”
    I have now set my squad to a structure that I am extremely happy with and the core values are. (keep in mind this is based on winning a league)
    Defenders 4 gs, 1 mp (Grimes) and 5 r (incl Otten)
    Mids 3 gs, 1 mp (Ward) and 5 rs
    Rucks 1 g, 1 mid (Fraser) and 2 rs
    Fwds 4 gs 3mps (incl Knights and Petrie) and 3 rs
    My starting best 22 (forget about byes) has no more than 2 players from any one club.
    I have more than adequate cover in all positions (rounds 4,5,6,16 & 19) don’t count.
    I have no “keepers” from Essendon, Kangaroos or Carlton (except Gibbs as he picks himself) as these are the finals I do not want to be playing short.
    I will still make a trade or two after round 2 if there is an obvious rookie i have missed on however other than that trades will be used solely for down/up grades and / or for long term injury replacements.

  • I’m not sure why people have to pick one strategy. Sure you should have a minimum of 12 premiums in your squad, but really what is wrong with picking up what you think are valuable players in each position.

    I was leaning more towards guns and rookies, but there are a few mid-priced forwards that are tasty. I’m not going purely one way or the other, but a bit of a balance of both.

    I don’t think in any year there is certain strategy you should go with, just what players are available that are below price etc.

  • I would really like to hear from everyone saying that I picked too many Gold Coast players, do you still feel the same way after the weekend?

  • Interesting theory all though the named team above wont post you a very respectable score in round 1..