Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 10

Welcome to a Friday arvo column that hopefully helps you get set for the weekend ahead. I’ll be looking at the key points/questions that have popped up during the week with some quick fire opinions, plus a look at how the mighty Warne Dawgs are looking ahead of the coming round.

Don’t miss:

• Calvin’s Captains
• Scale of Hardness
• Fry’s Cash Cows
• Matt’s Weekend Wash-Up
• Dunny’s Thursday Scramble
• Teams live stream
• Weekly podcast

Ben Hobbs … what’s the deal? 

A buzz name this week has ben Ben Hobbs. This off off the back of Will Setterfield going down with the short-to-medium term foot injury and the 5-week calf for Darcy Parish last week. Dylan Shiel is also battling an ankle.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Hobbs is priced at $524k, available as a FWD, carries a breakeven of 45 and is priced at about 62. His AFL games this year have returned:

• 23 v Collingwood – (STARTING SUB – 25% TOG) 3k, 3h, 1m, 1t – 27% CBAs
• 83 v Geelong – (67% TOG) 12k, 5h, 6m, 4t, 1g – 10% CBAs
• 61 v Port Adelaide – (69% TOG) 7k, 8h, 1m, 5t, 1g – 34% CBAs
• 85 v Brisbane – (74% TOG) 12k, 10h, 9m, 1t – 0% CBAs

It’s also worth noting his three VFL games have been huge. 149 v GWS with 34d, 10m, 6t, 2g in round one, 118 v Northern Bullants with 27d, 4m, 7t, 1g in round three and 118 v Casey with 31d, 6m, 2t in round four. Since then he’s been part of the AFL squad.

This selection is all about opportunity – which may/should include extra midfield usage – but also the run the Dons have coming up. They have three green teams in Cal’s Scale of Hardness with Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne. They play Carlton before the bye. If he’s posting 80s from here until the bye, that should be abour $100k earned. With that draw, there’s a chance of a big one in there as he has the capacity to score well.

The beauty of this move is obviously his price, as it is basically a straight swap from a Hollands or Chandler type (and not much up from other rookies) to make it happen. I wouldn’t be going down from a mid-pricer to him (however, I am tempted to go from McGrath) unless it allows you a decent upgrade on the otherside.

George Wardlaw v Harry Sharp (and other cash cows)

As of early Friday arvo, the two most popular players traded in are Harry Sharp (13.7k) and George Wardlaw (8.3k).

Of course you could be grabbing both as a double downgrade or a red-dot rookie fix – both moves I am not as adverse to as other coaches – but most as likely to be making a choice between the two. So … who do we pick?

I’m Team George.

The main reasons for Wardlaw being my man is that he has the R15 bye (I know some might be stacked there, but hear me out)… and he should stay in the NM team for that length of time. We can get 5 weeks out of him which could see his price make more than $150k in that time with a 65 average. Hopefully more points than that and a few extra dollars. Trading a rookie who has done their job at the byes is a strategy that we should all employ!

Now, don’t get me wrong, Sharp is a good option. His breakeven of -7 means his price is going north at a quicker rate than Wardlaw’s. My main issue with him is the round 12 bye. Job security in the last couple of days has sounded better than it was this time last week (which is why I ultimately didn’t get him … especially after talking to some of BL supporting mates on Saturday arvo after way too many pints), but could he be out after the bye? Yes, he could. That’s my worry.

For a few years now, I have had a theory that teams ‘reset’ after the bye. There’s players who are available that weren’t before. The magnets are wiped off the board and they start again picking their 22. Sharp could be a casualty of this. If you’re getting him, you want/need him to be there in round 13 and beyond.

Maybe that’s me talking myself out of him. But I think if I am only picking one, it has to be Wardlaw. Further to that, if I have plans to get Wardlaw next week, that’s all sweet. Get Sharp this week. My main view on getting Wardlaw over Sharp is that I think he has better job security than Sharp and after Ratten’s presser today saying that Wardlaw will run through the midfield during his debut, it’s enough for me to call him a lock.

Let’s hope there’s no real managed minutes…

As for other rookies, if Josh Fahey is named, we can launch into him as a basement priced player… but there’s something about Cameron Fleeton that I like, despite his poor score last week. He’s got the Saints and if he can take the intercept marks like he does in the Magoos, he could post a decent score and buy himself another week or two in the side (he’d be GREAT to run to the R15 bye). I like the Samson Ryan to Lachie McAndrew move (that’s purely about the cash – Dimma said Nank will be on managed minutes on his return).

There are some options above $300k that you could consider. Mitch Knevitt scored 70 last week. At $337k and the round 13 bye, he might be a handy option considering some of the injuries at the Cats (Dangerfield, Duncan). At $360k, Bailey Humphrey is a play for similar reasons – bye, breakeve, etc. They’re both at a price you would want to play them on field… but really, we are only two weeks away from having to play them on field anyway.

Edit Trade feature updated to include DPP moves

I’m told the bug that was there for DPP trades that couldn’t be edited is fixed. I haven’t really had a play as I go with a very conservative approach to my Fantasy playing. I don’t like doing any moves after lockout has started until I have to. It’s basically ‘rollback’ for me ahead of the first game and then do maths in my head where I need to and pull the trades at the times they need to be done.

Let me know if it’s working ok via the comments or over on Twitter. Hopefully things like this keep improving the gameplay experience.

Naming of teams

We’ve discussed it in a couple of forums, but it will be a bit of a watch this weekend to see if any subs come from the 4 interchange players named.

Last week the AFL basically said to clubs they can name their 22 but anyone came come in from the emergencies without explanation. This has happened with the Bombers a couple of times. A few weeks ago, Dyson Heppell was named in 22 only to be ‘dropped’ to sub. Alwyn Davey was the same last week with Massimo D’Ambrosio coming out of the emergency list to go into the 22.

In the near future, it looks likely that 5 bench players will be named. So expect a 23 to be named on Thursday nights/Friday afternoons moving forward.

More bye round thinking

I wrote about some strategy last week and you can revisit it by clicking here.

The most important part is working towards having 18+ players each week. The more premiums (or players who can score well) in each round the better. Don’t be too put off by being heavier in the last couple of rounds. But, hopefully you’re not too loaded with guns there. Think about who you’re trading out on those rounds.

Your bye round trading will impact your trades from now. Holding Reuben Ginbey to the R14 bye is a good thing now after he posted his 96 last week. Grabbing a Ben Hobbs to run to that same bye could be a winner. Grabbing George Wardlaw for the next 5 weeks may end up as a masterstroke as you can sell him at North’s R15 bye.

Warne Dawgs – Round 10

Setterfield to Merrett is all but locked in no matter which path I choose (well, maybe … I could go cheaper depending on 5pm teams). This is because I really want Ben Hobbs. That could still come into play. I have a few things to think about. McGrath to Hobbs? Stocker if dropped to Hobbs? I like Wardlaw. These moves look nice. I am happy with them, but we need to wait for a bit more info… stay tuned to my Twitter account.

ROUND 10 TRADES

Will Setterfield (M4) > Zach Merrett (M4)
Lachie Cowan (D8) > George Wardlaw (M9)
Cash left: $50,000

ROUND 10 CAPTAINS

Errol Gulden VC
Rowan Marshall C

Click here to watch the YouTube team update video.

Lockout times

All times AEST

Friday 19 May

Port Adelaide v Melbourne (A)) – 7:50pm

Saturday 20 May

North Melbourne v Sydney (MRVL) – 1:45pm
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide (MARS) – 2:10pm
Fremantle v Geelong (OS) – 4:35pm
Brisbane v Gold Coast (G) – 7:30pm
Essendon v Richmond (MCG) – 7:40pm

Sunday 14 May

Hawthorn v West Coast (UTAS) – 1:10pm
Carlton v Collingwood (MCG) – 3:20pm
GWS v St Kilda (GS) – 4:40pm

Don’t forget we have our Patreon pumping along! From $5 a month you can be watching our flagship Sunday night live stream once the final game finishes. For $10 you get a bonus mid-week Q&A podcast, which we call the Pintcast, where we answer plenty of questions over a few beers! There’s heaps more, so check out patreon.com/dttalk for more details.