The Thursday Scramble: Round 15 Final Bye Round!

Thank God I hear you say, we are finally at the last of the bye rounds and if your team is anything like mine (and hopefully not which means yours is good) then you will be struggling for players this week. But we have made it, so it is certainly time to Scramble!

Last Bye Plans

Ok, this is a bit better, we now have an extra 6 teams to pick from which is nice. Having a bigger pool of talent to pick from does make it a bit easier this week. But if you don’t have much money that can be a bit of a problem. You have probably downgraded to all the good rookies and the one that is left, Arie Schoenmaker is on his bye this week which is a problem if you are struggling for numbers. Remember, we only need to have 18 playing, yes, more is better, but it isn’t worth blowing up your team just for one week. This game is a marathon not a sprint.

Can you trade out a premium this week? Absolutely you can, I am seriously looking at unloading a premium that has been underperforming and that is Jack Steele. His scoring of late hasn’t been up to scratch with just two scores over 90 in the last five. You can use that cash if you can find someone cheaper to help you upgrade a couple of other guys. We always say don’t side swap your premiums in the bye rounds but I see this more as a correction than a side swap. He isn’t performing and hence you upgrade him to someone that is (and if that upgrade in scoring is at a cheaper price then even better).

Is a Key Forward a No-No?

Another rule that you may want to break is the “No Key Forwards” rule. Generally we don’t like picking key forwards because their output is generally solely dependant on how many goals they kick in the game which can make them very inconsistent. But one that many are considering that is now off his bye is Charlie Curnow who is averaging 77.3 which does make him the 24th highest averaging forward in the game which may not scream “Pick Me” but, he has a standard deviation of 10.28 (the lower the standard deviation the more consistent his scoring is) and of all forwards that have played 5 games or more this season this places him 7th overall. So this tells me that whilst his average isn’t the highest he will deliver you far more consistent scores and is less likely to drop a stinker on you. If I extend that to all forwards that have played 10 or more games he jumps to 4th behind Fantasia, Jordon and Membrey.  Now some may say this is clutching at straws, but if you are putting him in as your F6 you can set and forget him and know pretty much what you are going to get from him.

If I compare Curnow to Joe Daniher who falls into that Key Forward realm. Joe’s average is 89.2 so 12 higher but his standard deviation is 28.67 and places him 129th in that list of forwards for consistency.  With Charlie he has had just 1 over 90 but only 2 under 70 whereas Joe has had 5 over 90 but has had 4 under 70.

We are talking small margins here but you can get that consistency from Charlie or the high ceiling of Joe. This is always a risk you need to weigh up. Many coaches chase the high ceiling but for those that like their weekend stress free you can go with the consistency.  The last factor I will throw into this equation is that the Blues play 1 more Friday night on the run home that Brisbane so Charlie is always a loophole option.

I hope that was useful for you, it is a bit nerdy but the message I am trying to get across is don’t always just go by their average score. Look at their range of outcomes (credit to The Draft Doctors for that one) as well as using Cal’s Scale of Hardness to look at what the player has coming up.

Community Service Announcement

Now I am pretty sure that over the weeks here I always tell you to check your captains and vice captains. Well guess who screwed that up last week, yup it was me.  I diligently put my VC onto Ryan down back but I didn’t take any notice of where my C was and because the previous week I had used Nat Fyfe as my Loophole Captain who was on the bye, there my C remained, so it didn’t matter what Ryan did I was stuck with the shithouse score that Fyfe delivered for me as my C.

So let that be a lesson to you folks, double and triple check these things!

Things to Remember

• Did I mention, Check your C and VC!
• Don’t panic if you don’t have 22 on field. Just make sure you have 18.
• Consider how your team will look next week when we are back to full strength. Make sure your bye trading hasn’t left you with any holes to plug!

Enjoy the last of the bye rounds, it seems like they have gone on forever this year!  And if your leagues and drafts have had the byes off, make sure you haven’t completely ignored your teams and they are all set to go for the next full round of games in round 16!  Cheers til next Thursday.

Dunny

A passionate Port Adelaide Fan who simply loves footy! That is how I would describe myself. Catch my weekly article "The Thursday Scramble" with all the last minute things to think about for the weekend Follow: @pkd73.