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Deck of Dream Team

Tim Taranto – Deck of Dream Team 2023

Continuing the trend of forward LOCKS to feature in 2023’s Deck of DT… It’s Timmy time!

Player Tim Taranto
Club Richmond
Position FWD / MID
Price $846,000
Bye 15
2022 avg 95.5
2022 gms 16
Proj. avg 105
Draft range 1st-2nd Round

Click here for 2023 Fantasy Classic prices.

 

Why should I pick him?

New Club = More Opportunity

A Fantasy favourite reason for selection. We collectively lick our lips whenever a player moves on to another club with perceived increased opportunity. Since returning from his long term shoulder injury back in 2020 through to the end of his time at GWS in 2022 (a lowly 47% CBA usage last year) Taranto has been used on-and-off as a mid-sized forward. But let’s rewind and remember what Taranto put out when played as a CBA midfielder;

113 season average. High score of 156. Low score of 75. 15 scores above 100. 7 scores above 120 (a common captaincy line).

Taranto’s best is top 8 midfield worthy, forget that he’s named up as a forward!

The increased opportunity and CBA’s come from team depth. He leaves a team with Ward, Kelly, Hopper (aware he’s moved across too), Tom Green, Coniglio and the army of untried/new first round midfielders coming through and joins an ageing, constantly injured midfield brigade at Richmond. Prestia is 30 and can’t stay on the park, Cotchin is 32, Dusty is 31 and has had his own issues of late. These three have carried a lot of the midfield weight over the Richmond premiership era but change is coming…

New Club = First Impressions

The other reason to love a club switch is the ‘First Impression’ factor. You train harder, run faster, score higher… Timmy is walking into a club still within a premiership window, and he wants that W after coming so close in 2019. Tipping a hot start here!

Playstyle

Taranto’s play style suits Richmond’s to a tee. It’s no secret that the Tigers play that forward-at-all-costs style. Often that forward movement happens by boot. In 2022 Richmond averaged 76 more kicks than handballs every game. In Taranto’s 3 main midfield years (2019, 2021, 2022) he averaged 6 more kicks than handballs each game. He’s always been a kick over handball sort of midfielder, which translates well for Fantasy output and team role.

On a side note, I think playing for Richmond actually takes out Taranto’s weakest element in his game. He ranked 4th for total clangers (in the competition) and 7th for clangers per game in 2022. Woeful from a career perspective, but us Fantasy coaches like to look at stats with rose tinted glasses, and I actually think the Richmond game style will come extremely naturally for TT.

Prestia vs Taranto

While I was crunching some numbers I came across a redeeming one on the “Richmond sucks at Fantasy” front. Last year Prestia was the highest scoring midfielder with 86… Which is vomit worthy. But going through his games from 2022, he had 3 injured games on low scores, including a 17. Taking these out, he actually averaged 99. Which makes him the highest averaging player for Richmond. Still very vomit worthy. Prestia also managed to scrape together a few decent scores in that, although those scores lacked a ceiling: 114, 104, 109, 105, 104, and 107. But compare this to Taranto now… As Fantasy players, it’s chalk & cheese. Prestia has averaged over 100 (100.3 in 2014)  once in 12 years, Taranto (113 & 108) has done it twice in six, he’s simply a better Fantasy player. If you consider the scoring potential of both, and say Prestia can average 99 in this current Richmond lineup, which is essentially his career ceiling… By comparison Taranto’s floor should be 99, but I’m predicting something closer to 105-108.

 

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

 

Affordability 

Choosing between the plethora of underpriced (but still expensive) gun forwards is shaping up to be an early season definer. The already Deck of DT covered trio of Rozee, Coniglio and D.Cameron present some obvious value. Then add the soon to be covered Josh Dunkley and Dylan Moore to that list and… BAM! Salary deleted. There’s a serious case to run all these names in our starting squads, and it’s still very possible considering we can run D.Cameron in the RUC, and one of the other DPP FWD’s in a starting MID spot but how many is too many? And which, are optimal?

Overly Forward Heavy?

One issue I’ve ran into in previous seasons (and one I hope to avoid in 2023) is completing a single line too early. Completing a line with premiums is extremely gratifying, but it also can put you in some very undesirable positions. Last year I completed my mids real early, I had the chest pumped out and a strut in my step (was ranked around the 100 mark)… But then imagine how inverted the chest became and hobbled the walk was when I had no room for Laird in the 2nd half of the year. Premiums aside, there will ALWAYS be a season making mid-pricer or rookie that scores in line with premiums in the second half of the year. We don’t know who that will be yet in 2023, but when it comes, and if there’s a big one in the forward line, you’ll be wishing you had a spot free for it.

Let’s address the ginormous elephant standing in Richmond’s locker room.

Here’s how Richmond ranked in 2022 against other clubs in some very important Fantasy stat lines; 18th in tackles, 16th in clearances, 13th in handballs, 12th in marks, 10th in kicks. Which makes them the 14th worst club for Fantasy points, ahead of Roos, Suns, Eagles, and Crows. It’s worth noting Richmond ranked 1st in goals, 3rd in behinds, which ranks them 2nd on the scoreboard. If we factored out goals and behinds from the total Fantasy output, Richmond would rank the worst. And to make matters worse, Short was the only Richmond player to score above 90 last year. The best of the midfielders was Prestia on an average of 86 (although he did have 3 injured game scores in that). These are incredibly damning facts. It’s the main reason you should have any hesitation in starting Tim Taranto, and it’s the only reason why I held my predicted average back to 105 from anything too ambitious.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE

This conversation would have been a lot more interesting if Taranto was a MID only. And TBH I’m kind of wishing he were to make this a really spicy pick. There would have still been a lot of merit in TT being a Classic starter as a MID based on his starting price based on a 96 average (17 points below his best), but the fact he can be chosen as a FWD makes this a whole lot easier.

Best case: the upside is tremendous. Like, absolutely must have territory. 110+ average levels.

Worst case: he falls into the Richmond regime of low Fantasy scoring. Even then, low scoring from Timmy in the mids is probably still around where he is currently priced (96). Won’t be a punishing miss, but still puts him in touch with the top 6 forwards by the end of the year. And if that’s a worst case, that’s still pretty good.

A contender to be in the top 3 highest scoring forwards for Fantasy 2023, and a LOCK to be a top 6. And if you’re not going to give an ACE to a potential top 3 of their line, I’m not sure who would get it.

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Have been an avid DT'er for over a decade now, with 2 top 100 finishes (23rd & 94th), and more top 500 placings over that time. Looking to continuously push for more competitive rankings while giving some advice along the way!

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Mark Beckman

    January 8, 2023 at 8:29 am

    Swapping with Martin forward I bet but if 50/50 may need to avoid both ?

    • TRIGGA

      January 8, 2023 at 9:15 am

      Can definitely see them swapping with each other but I seriously doubt it will be 50/50. Maybe closer to 70/30, Taranto’s way. Taranto is much fitter atm having won the time trials and could only see Dusty as an impact rotation in the mids given the off season recruitments

  2. The Chosen Won™®©

    January 8, 2023 at 8:37 am

    It will just be a question of when.. Dunks and Cogs ahead of him for round 1.

    2017 CL Champion™®©
    I smashed da Minj 2019 2020 2021 2022™®©
    Good Luck in 2023™®©

  3. Squidly Diddly

    January 8, 2023 at 4:29 pm

    1st one picked for me

  4. Daicos4Brownlow

    January 8, 2023 at 6:46 pm

    If there were two others who left the GWS midfield, meaning Taranto would have to move to the guts, he would be the first picked. However, he is now at the tiges, and their style is a massive risk to his Fantasy scoring. I will not be picking him to start. It’s risk vs reward; he carries a high level of risk of just maintaining his current status quo, and not a great deal of reward if he does improve. He will not sky-rocket in price so much that we cannot get him after a couple of weeks of proving that he will score, but we could miss other value options who have less risk if we pick him straight up while getting minimal reward.

    • Double Parked

      January 8, 2023 at 11:25 pm

      I’d argue he’s very low risk considering he’s basically going from a high high forward flank/midfield role to almost full-time in the guts.

      There’s no way he would have nominated the tigers unless he was guaranteed to get a big uptick in midfield minutes. His current price is his (very pessimistic) floor and would still have him top 6 forwards. Lock and load

      • Daicos4Brownlow

        January 9, 2023 at 2:30 am

        I agree that he will play MID, and will be a top 6 FWD, but no value in picking him at the start, because he is unlikely to increase his scoring. Richmond midfielders do not average 100+. But if you think he is guaranteed to improve, fill your boots.

        • Double Smoked

          January 9, 2023 at 11:53 am

          How is he any different than Dunkley as he is unlikely to increase much too with brisbane mids rotations

          • Daicos4Brownlow

            January 9, 2023 at 5:34 pm

            I have Dunks, Cogs, Moore and Rozee in my FWD line already. I see all of them as a higher priority than Taranto, and all four have a higher degree of certainty. I believe Dunks is F1, set and forget. You can throw a blanket over Cogs, Moore, Rozee and Taranto as to who comes in as F2-5. I just believe that Taranto is the riskier of the four – there is a bigger chance of him dropping – in my opinion. If you assess things differently, then back yourself.

            • Dulcify

              January 9, 2023 at 6:05 pm

              I haven’t done a fantasy team as yet. But I am more than happy to have TT sitting at F2 in my Dream Team behind Cogs. Dunkley at M3.

  5. PowerAde

    January 9, 2023 at 2:54 pm

    yes for F2

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