Shai Bolton – Deck of DT 2022

Name: Shai Bolton
Team: Richmond
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $652,000
Bye round: 12
2021 average: 77.7
2021 games played: 20
Predicted average: 90
Draft range: 10th forward

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Why should I pick him?

This will be true for both why should I pick him and why I shouldn’t pick him. Richmond is fantasy kryptonite in the midfield. And we’ve all been burnt by trying to find the Richmond under-priced gold only to see their output stuck in the 80’s. But at some point, Richmond will need to alter their game style, at least a little, so that their midfield at least gets more of the pill- maybe more like Melbourne of 2021.

So, the preseason is a massive watch regarding the Richmond game style. Will Richmond be slightly less chaotic through the midfield, and even start to even up contested ball and centre clearances so one of their 3 midfielders who are in the fantasy forward line are options: Martin, Graham or Bolton.

Here’s the case for Bolton

Bolton’s game fell away last year when lots of fantasy coaches picked him. His movement to the midfield corresponded with Dusty’s injury, but also Richmond’s end of season collapse. His last 5 game average of 60.4 is terrible and 17 points below his season average of 77.7. But that gives hope, that if Richmond improve, Bolton’s game should, at a minimum return to that mid 80’s player from earlier in the 2021 season.

From a fantasy forward moonlighting in the midfield Bolton has a high ceiling with scores of 107 v Adelaide, 122 v Melbourne, 107 v St Kilda and 101 v the Bulldogs. Between Rounds 4-8, he scored 3 tons and his lowest score was 85 v Geelong. The question is, is Bolton like De Goey or Stringer in that he can maintain a balanced mid-forward mix and score above 80? He has shown that he can, even if it was just for a short block of time.

Bolton is coming into the age group where drafted mid-forwards should have the tank to spend more time running through the midfield and he has been durable: playing 20 games in 2021. From a fantasy average of 60.7 in 2019 to 64.3 Coronaball to 77.7 in 2021. Whilst we bemoan his inconsistency, his overall numbers are of a player transitioning to a mid-forward role whose scoring should move towards 85-90.  For this to occur he needs to get more of his own ball (contested average of 8.4) and bump up is average disposal of 19.7. Whilst owners will point to his poor midfield scoring in the latter half of the season, maybe this learning experience will serve him well in 2022.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

He plays for Richmond and is not Jayden Short. And just to ram home that fact, the Richmond midfield minus Dusty have not broken 90 averages since Prestia’s 100.4 in 2019- in fact apart from Prestia in 2019 you will struggle to find a plus 90 midfielder since Cotchin in 2017. This means their game style has worked for many years and they may only tinker rather than radicalize.

The other factor which weighs against Bolton is he may be the third best fantasy forward (or even fourth behind Rioli) at Richmond behind Dustin Martin and Jack Graham.  If Slim Dusty returns to the midfield than that seemingly would conspire Bolton to a forward-mid role rather than the other way round. Now, whilst his scoring was better in 2021 in that role, it is not a role which screams fantasy consistency.

I was a Bolton owner in 2021 and his dodge-ball behaviour in the Richmond midfield makes you want to scream to the extent that by Round 23 Hardwick had placed him back into the forward line where he scored 75 but from 92% in the forward half. In earlier weeks he had been scoring in the 60’s with about a 30-70 split between defensive and forward half. In other words, can you start Bolton in classic when he didn’t succeed in the midfield role, but has succeeded in the forward half role with a pinch hit in the middle.

Bolton’s last game which had substantial midfield time was against Geelong in Round 19 where he scored 44. He attended 19 CBA’s for 1 CBA clearance. By the end of the season Ross and Graham had gone past him in the midfield. Just to make matters worse for Bolton as a midfielder, he rarely runs defensively, unlike Graham and Ross and therefore it seems unlikely you could play Martin and Bolton in the midfield at the same time.

An interesting stat is what fantasy position does a player finish in at the conclusion of games. These are Bolton’s finishing positions back from Round 23: 8, 12, 17, 19, 18, 5(Richmond win v Brisbane), 2 (this was a 90 against Collingwood where it was easily his best game as a 50-50 mid-forward), 14 and 19.  Also, Bolton beat Graham in only that Collingwood game.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

When Bolton scores heavily, he looks awesome, but he reminds me of a player who blew my season up last year: Isaac Heeney. The promise of more midfield time is always curtailed at just the point you place them at F3. Let’s put it this way, would you be happier with Martin at M5 or Bolton (or even Graham).

There is a danger in picking a player solely because they are mid/fwd.  I hope Bolton proves me wrong, because if he does average about 90 it will look amazing. But I think he is behind Martin and Graham.

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