Weekend Forecast – Round 22

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Make sure you tune into the live stream of the Weekend Forecast, as I am lucky enough to have Roy join me as we go through the upcoming round and answer your questions during the show, as well as pay tribute to Tom Rockliff, as the Fantasy Pig announced his retirement earlier this week.

 

Fantasy Preliminary final weekend is here, and if you got there, well done! It has been a really tough year for coaches to navigate with plenty of carnage each week, and this week is no different, with many trades AGAIN going to be forced trades. I however, was knocked out last week, and will look to bring in some big boys to enjoy the remaining 2 rounds of the 2021 fantasy season!

 

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

GWS vs Richmond @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

Jesse Hogan, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly, Adam Kennedy, Daniel Lloyd, Shane Mumford

OUT

Kieren Briggs (Omitted), Callum Brown (Injured), Matt Buntine (Injured), Brent Daniels (Injured), Toby Greene (Suspension), Jake Riccardi (Omitted), Nick Shipley (Medi-Sub)

Richmond

IN

 

OUT

Jason Castagna (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Tim Taranto

It was great to see Timmy back in the middle last week, and boy how well did he play? In a tough matchup, he had 34 disposals, 9 tackles and 2 goals. A strong all round performance. Both Hopper and Kelly come back into the team this week so it will be interesting to see if he does stay in the midfield, but I think he will, especially with how well he played, and Brent Daniels is out injured.

Josh Kelly

Back this week after being a late out last week. If you were lucky enough to have the week off in your league and held, looks like it was a good decision. For many, they had to trade. Has 2 good matchups in Richmond and Carlton to finish the year so should reward owners with some goo scores, and you can still trade him back in if you’re keen.

Dion Prestia

If you don’t have the funds to get up to a big dog, then how about Dion Prestia? I know he is a huge injury risk, but with only 2 rounds to go, the injury risk isn’t as much of a big deal as it would have been around the byes. And he has been really good in his 2 games since coming back from injury, with scores of 109 and 106. With Dusty being out, him and Cotchin have had to step up, and his high scoring should against GWS tonight and Hawthorn next week.

Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs @ UTAS Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, overcast with occasional showers (50% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

 

OUT

Dylan Moore (Injured)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Mitch Hannan, Alex Keath, Laitham Vandermeer, Cody Weightman, Lewis Young

OUT

Josh Bruce (Injured), Ed Richards (Omitted), Josh Schache (Injured), Anthony Scott (Managed), Roarke Smith (Medi-Sub), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Jack Scrimshaw

Similar to Prestia, if you can’t afford any of the big boy defenders, then I think Scrimshaw could be your man. Since round 6, his scores are as follows: 111, 104, 94, 85, 81, 65 (tough game Sydney), 93, 100, 58 (tough matchup Port), 35 (injured in 2nd quarter), 59 (first game back from injury), 99 and 119. Has great matchups to finish the year with the Western Bulldogs and Richmond who both give points up to defenders. He’s only 554k and based on his scoring if you take out the injury affected game, would probably be around 625k-650k.

Lachlan Bramble

If you are like me and are still rocking Bramble on your field, then there is no reason to be moving him on at this point unless he is your only player on field you want to move on. Scored 94 last week and same with Scrimmy, has Bulldogs and Tigers to finish the year. I can see Bramble getting 70+ in both games.

Tom Mitchell

Went massive last week, like he always does against Collingwood. 44 disposals, 10 marks and a goal for his huge 157. If he was a unique in your league final matchup, he would have been a huge, if not the reason matchups were decided. Has a tougher matchup for midfielders against the Bulldogs, but as we say, with Pig’s like Titch, they don’t care who they play.

Geelong vs St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Henderson, Mark O’Connor, Isaac Smith

OUT

Jordan Clark (Omitted), Nathan Kreuger (Omitted), Quinton Narkle (Medi-Sub), Gary Rohan (Injured), Zach Tuohy (Injured)

St Kilda

IN

Dan Hannebery, Dougal Howard

OUT

Jack Bytel (Omitted), Leo Connolly (Injured), Darragh Joyce (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Patrick Dangerfield

Injured on 15 early in the first quarter last week, and it looked like a forced trade, but it looks like Danger will play. Good matchup against the Saints this week, and with Cameron back in the side, should play more in the midfield.

Zach Guthrie

If you are really strapped for cash, and need to move a rookie, then Zach Guthrie could be a sneaky option at 435k. Back to back scores of 128 and 75, but he was on 75 at 3QT last week so has shown his ability to score in the last 2 weeks. Tuohy being out also helps him as he should get more of the ball.

Jack Steele

How good is this man? Looked to be struggling (by his standards) at quarter as he only had 16 points, but went nuts after that with 123 in the final 3 quarters! 59 points in the 2nd, 24 points in the 3rd, and 40 points in the last. He has just found a way in every game to get it done. Even if he struggles for a quarter, he responds in the next quarter. Showing a real snout this year, and as the boys said, if he continues for the final 2 rounds and into next year, could be snouted by the end of 2022.

Port Adelaide vs Carlton @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, mainly sunny

Team Lineups

Port Adelaide

IN

Tom Clurey

OUT

Trent McKenzie (Injured), Sam Powell-Pepper (Omitted)

Carlton

IN

Brodie Kemp (Debut), Mitch McGovern

OUT

Liam Jones (Injured), Harry McKay (Injured), Jack Silvagni (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Rockliff

Our beloved Pig called time on his career this week. Happy Retirement Pig! You brought us Fantasy coaches so many great memories over the journey, and you delivered week on week for us. My favourite memory of Rocky was that game against the Gold Coast at the Gabba in round 18, 2014. He had 47 disposals, 5 marks, 10 tackles, kicked a goal for a whopping 190 points, and for many of us including myself, was 380 points as captain. He was then inducted as a Pig after that game and rightfully so, as he averaged 134.8 for the year! If any players want to be a pig, games like that is what you need to do to get a snout. If you want more of a read on Rocky and you haven’t checked it out, make sure you give Warnie’s tribute to Rocky.

Dan Houston

Responded after some poor form, with his first ton since round 6, and his first 80+ score since round 15. With 2 good matchups for defenders in Carlton and Western Bulldogs to finish the year, if you have bigger issues to deal with, he isn’t the must trade he looked to be last week and you could hold him for at least this week.

Ollie Wines

Has dropped 58k over the last 3 weeks to now be priced at 833k, thanks to some average scores by his standards of 100, 96 and 95. However, I think this could be a great week to jump on him, as he has a great matchup against Carlton. He does have a tougher matchup against the Bulldogs next week, but Ollie is a premium, and in a must win game for them next, he should finish the year big.

Brodie Kemp

Making his debut for the Blues this week, looks to be a good downgrade option for your midfield bench if you need someone to play.

Brisbane vs Collingwood @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

Darcy Gardiner, Lachie Neale

OUT

Thomas Berry (Medi-Sub), Rhys Mathieson (Omitted), Mitch Robinson (Injured)

Collingwood

IN

Josh Daicos, Nathan Murphy

OUT

Jeremy Howe (Managed), John Noble (Omitted), Isaac Quaynor (Illness)

 

Players to Watch

Daniel Rich

Has just continued to get the job done for coaches week in week out. Now has 3 tons on the trott, and has only gone once under 80 all year (71 against Kangas in round 14). 2 juicy matchups against Collingwood and West Coast to finish the year, if you’re looking for a premium defender, Rich looks like the best pick.

Jarryd Lyons

Owners would not have been happy at 3QT, with Lyons only on 60 points (especially me as a new owner). But came home like a steam train in the final quarter with 13 disposals, 2 marks an 2 tackles for 51 points to get a 111. Even though he struggled for large parts of the game, he still ended up being the 3rd best scorer for the game. It just shows that these premiums this year, even if they struggle for a quarter of 2, they will just find a way to get the job done. Good matchup against Collingwood this week, and if you own him, is a great VC option.

North Melbourne vs Sydney @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Charlie Comben (Debut)

OUT

Tom Campbell (Omitted), Jack Mahony (Injured)

Sydney

IN

Braeden Campbell, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican

OUT

Ryan Clarke (Medi-Sub), Lance Franklin (Managed), Jake Lloyd (Injured), Dylan Stephens (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Aaron Hall

Again, Aaron Hall gets another 120+ score. Unreal how good he has been this year. If it wasn’t for his 3rd quarter with only 10 points, this had the looking of a 150+ score. If you take away his 2 sub and injury affected games, instead of averaging 107.3 in his 18 games this year, he is averaging a whopping 117.9 in his 16 games! Only Touk Miller and Jack Steele would be averaging more than that. At this point, he looks to be 10 points underpriced for next year.

Jordan Dawson

With both Callum Mills and Jake Lloyd being out this week, many coaches need a defensive solution. Jordan Dawson could be a great option. More so with Jake Lloyd being out, I expect Jordan Dawson to take the kick ins, which would bump his decent scoring since the bye (94.4 average since the bye). Games against North Melbourne and Gold Coast also add to the appeal, and could be a good differential in your league matchups.

Melbourne vs Adelaide @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, sunny with some clouds

Team Lineup

Melbourne

IN

Toby Bedford, Michael Hibberd, Joel Smith, Sam Weideman

OUT

Jayden Hunt (Injured)

Adelaide

IN

Sam Berry, Billy Frampton, Lachlan Gollant (Debut), Shane McAdam, Lachlan Sholl, Kieran Strachan

OUT

Will Hamill (Injured), Reilly O’Brien (Injured), Brodie Smith (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Christian Petracca

The Trac has been on a tear since the bye, only once going under 100 (a 90) and averaging a massive 122. Of the 6 tons, 4 of them have been over 125. With Oliver copping most of the attention from the opposition, Petracca has roamed free as he is more difficult to tag as he can go forward. Adelaide this week should see another 120+ score.

Max Gawn

With Reilly O’Brien out this week, it looks like it could be a bloodbath and Max should cash in big time. My only slight concern is whether they decide to rest him forward for large parts of the game and play Jackson against Kieran Strachan to make sure Gawn is fit and healthy for finals. I do however, think this won’t happen as they want Gawn to be in his best ruck form leading into finals.

Gold Coast vs Essendon @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, windy and some clouds

Team Lineups

Gold Coast

IN

Rory Atkins, Will Brodie, Alex Davies (Debut), Sam Flanders

OUT

Brandon Ellis (Injured)

Essendon

IN

Brayden Ham, Dyson Heppell, Andrew McGrath, Andrew Phillips

OUT

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Touk Miller

Very similar to Jack Steele last week, first quarter was quiet with only 18 points, but followed that up with 35 points in the 2nd, 48 points in the 3rd, and 39 points in the last to finish with 140 points. Again, he scored 122 points in the final 3 quarters. If our players score 122 from a full game, you would be really happy, but this guy can do it in 3 quarters! Him and Steele are on a completely different level, with Mitchell and Lyons right behind them.

Brayden Fiorini

Followed up his good form with another 119, and now has 6 tons in a row since being back in the team. In those 6 games, he has averaged 117.2! We know he has been capable of this, it was just Gold Coast needing to give him the opportunity, and thanks to some unfortunate injuries, he finally got this opportunity. If you can’t afford guys like Touk, Steele, Mitchell, Lyons, Petracca, I think Fiorini is the best guy, and is around 100k cheaper than most of them at 792k.

Jeremy Sharp

Similar to Bramble, if Sharp is on your field, I don’t think he is a high priority to trade, especially with a great matchup against Essendon this week. He does have it tougher against Sydney next week so you can look to move him next week and if you have no issues this week.

Darcy Parish

It wasn’t that long ago that we were chasing between Parish and Touk Miller at around 880k to bring in to our teams. Now, Touk Miller is up to 946k and averaging 123.7 for the year, and Parish is down to 746k and averaging 107.3 for the year. As Parish has been so good this year, the tags have gone from Merrett and onto Parish, and he hasn’t quite been able to shake that attention off. His form has been poor bar 1 game since round 16 when he scored a 143 against Geelong, with scores of 68, 128, 69, 97 and 81. If you paid 880k+ for him, you would be disappointed. However, with games against Gold Coast and Collingwood to finish the year, I think you should be rewarded if you have held him.

Fremantle vs West Coast @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 22°C, mainly sunny

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Blake Acres, Bailey Banfield, Ethan Hughes, Sam Switkowski, Tobe Watson

OUT

Andrew Brayshaw (Suspension), Nathan Wilson (Injured)

West Coast

IN

Tom Barrass, Luke Foley, Liam Ryan, Luke Shuey, Jake Waterman

OUT

Shannon Hurn (Injured), Connor West (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Adam Cerra/Caleb Serong

With Andrew Brayshaw out this week, both Adam Cerra and Caleb Serong should see another boost in their scoring. Since Nat Fyfe went off injured against Sydney, in the 3 games since then (including the Sydney game) Cerra has scored 129, 138 and 98, and Serong has scored 94, 75 (only 66% game time) and 118. Out of the 2, I prefer Cerra as he plays 80% game time consistently, but Serong is 111k cheaper so if you can’t afford Cerra, Serong is still a good option as I don’t see game time being an issue for him with Brayshaw being out this week.

Andrew Gaff

Still hasn’t gone more than 3 games scoring over 100 with a 77 last week, but it was in the wet, and we know Gaff struggles in the wet. He should be better this week, as it is looks to be warm and sunny in Perth on Sunday afternoon, and has been good on Fremantle in the past, and it’s at Optus again with a full crowd back at the Derby so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gaff goes 120+ for only the 4th time this year.

My Trades

Lloyd -> Nash/Honey or 170k Rookie (E.g. Kemp)

Mills -> Touk

Even though I am now knocked out of my league finals, I still have injury carnage with both Lloyd and Mills now out. As I am out of my league, all I want in the last 2 rounds is to get all 3 of Steele, Mitchell and Touk. So, I am getting Touk for Mills, and going Lloyd down to either Nash or Honey via DPP, and I will play Peatling or Kemp on field as I want enough money to be able to get both Jack Steele and Tom Mitchell next week, and enjoy having the 4 of Steele, Miller, Mitchell and Lyons in my team for the final round of 2021!

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 22 and your Preliminary Finals!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang