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The Season

Weekend Forecast – Round 21

Get ready for your Fantasy semi final with Bailey’s tip-top advice.

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Make sure you tune into the live stream of the Weekend Forecast, as I am lucky enough to have Calvin join me as we go through the upcoming round and answer your questions during the show.

The second week of fantasy finals is upon us, and hopefully you were able to win your qualifying final and go straight through to the semi or win your elimination final to stay alive. I won my elimination final in my competitive league so I move on to the semi’s, hopefully getting the job done this week. Hopefully you can get the job done this week, or enjoy the week off before the prelim. If you were knocked out, my condolences and hopefully you get Grand Final glory next year.

 

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

Geelong vs GWS @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Max Holmes

OUT

Quinton Narkle (Omitted), Isaac Smith (Managed)

GWS

IN

Kieren Briggs, Callum Brown, Jake Riccardi, Zach Sproule, Jake Stein, Matt De Boer

OUT

Phil Davis (Injured), Tom Green (Injured), Jesse Hogan (Managed), Jacob Hopper (Injured), Daniel Lloyd (Injured), Shane Mumford (Managed), Sam Reid (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Tim Taranto

To start the week with the news that both Hopper and Tom Green would be out for at least this week, that made my decision easy to hold Taranto. Now with him being named forward pocket I now have my concerns. Looking at the GWS team, the only players to contest for mid clock/CBA’s are Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Tim Taranto, Matt De Boer, Brent Daniels, and maybe Lachie Ash, Toby Greene and Tanner Bruhn. I personally think Taranto would be in the best 3, but your guess is as good as mine.

James Peatling

Will be a very popular trade in target this week, and with the possibility of emergency loopholing him as he plays in the first game is just further incentive. Looked really comfortable and composed last week for his 82, and I could see him get another 70+ score this week as GWS do like to chip it around the back, but tough game against the Cats tonight.

Carlton vs Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Eddie Betts

OUT

Marc Murphy (Medi-Sub), Matthew Owies (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Brandon Ellis, Jacob Townsend (Debut)

OUT

Jack Bowes (Omitted), Will Brodie (Omitted), Sam Flanders (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Walsh 

Could potentially cop the David Swallow tag like we saw Oliver get last week. I personally don’t think it will happen, and I think Walsh should be good, but just a small flag to consider.

Matt Kennedy

Still a great option to bring in, but with both Marshall and Sidebottom around the same price, would probably be number 3 out of the 3. But we did see with McKay back in the team along with Charlie Curnow, he went back into the guts and if that stays, should be good for minimum of 75+ in each of the remaining 3 games.

Touk Miller

Has been amazing this season, averaging 122.8 which makes him the highest averaging player with 3 games left. Great matchup against Carlton this week, who he already had a big score of 140 in round 4 this year. I think he is one of the most reliable players this season, and a great VC option as he plays the first game on Saturday, or you can just put him straight captain as he is so good!

Brayden Fiorini

Underpriced for what we have seen the last 5 weeks, no scores under 100 and a 119 last week where they got smashed. Had a massive first quarter with 45 points. One to consider as he should be big to finish the year.

 

Richmond vs North Melbourne @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 15°C, mostly cloudy with potential showers (38% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Callum Coleman-Jones, Kamdyn McIntosh, Hugo Ralphsmith, Maurice Rioli (Debut), Nick Vlastuin

OUT

Jake Aarts (Omitted), Josh Caddy (Medi-Sub), Jason Castagna (Omitted), Mabior Chol (Omitted), Ryan Garthwaite (Omitted), Jack Ross (Omitted)

North Melbourne

IN

Aiden Bonar, Tom Campbell, Tarryn Thomas, Cameron Zurhaar

OUT

Shaun Atley (Medi-Sub), Atu Bosenavulagi (Omitted), Will Phillips (Omitted), Jared Polec (Managed), Tristan Xerri (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Dion Prestia

Looked good in his return game last week with a 109, and with only 3 games left and priced at 564k, good be a decent option as he should average over 100 if he plays all 3 games. That is the risk with Prestia though, as he could get injured at any point.

Maurice Rioli

Finally makes his debut, and could be a great 170k basement option to bring in. Adding to that, he has the great flexibility of being a MID/FWD.

Aaron Hall

Will be a really good VC option for many coaches, permitting that it doesn’t rain. It is forecasted that there may be some potential rain, which would sway me against making him my VC, but if not, one of the safest options going around. Out of his 15 full games this season, only 4 scores have been under 100 and nothing below 88 (99, 98, 88 and 92).

Tarryn Thomas

A sneaky option to consider bringing in. Only 5k more expensive than a Marshall, was going really well before mossing last week with concussion. Went 126 and 115 in his previous 2 games, good matchup with Richmond, and no Cunnington means more responsibility for Tarryn. I think he could be big to finish the year and could average 100+ for the last 3 games.

 

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Brayden Cook (Debut), Riley Thilthorpe

OUT

Sam Berry (Omitted), James Rowe (Omitted), Taylor Walker (Omitted)

Port Adelaide

IN

Robbie Gray

OUT

Todd Marshall (Omitted), Boyd Woodcock (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Dan Houston

Has been super poor, and is now down at 524k thanks to 5 scores under 80 in a row, and 3 of them 50’s! He does though have 3 easy (on paper) matchups to finish the year so hopefully he can produce something as he is now getting too cheap to actually upgrade him to anyone decent. He did have 69 against the Crows earlier this season, but that was in just over half a game.

 

St Kilda vs Sydney @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Nick Coffield, Darragh Joyce, Daniel McKenzie, Jack Sinclair

OUT

Jack Billings (Injured), Hunter Clark (Injured), Dougal Howard (Injured), Paul Hunter (Omitted), Ben Long (Omitted)

Sydney

IN

 

OUT

James Bell (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Rowan Marshall

Great value already, but with Paul Hunter being dropped and Ratten saying Ryder could miss the remaining 3 games, that makes Marshall insane value at 637k. Could easily go 100+ in the next 3, and is great cover in the forward line if something happens to Gawn or Grundy in the final 3 games.

Jack Steele

What else can you say about the man? 6 of his last 8 have been over 133, with the other 2 scores only a 114 and 106. Has only 1 score under 100 since round 8 (and that was an 84 against the Dogs when they got smashed). If you can afford the 967k, then go for it. Enjoy the remaining 3 games of the season with Jack Steele in your team.

Callum Mills

Has been great this season, and showed his massive ceiling with his first score over 150 last week with a 152, and his 3rd score over 130 this year. In fact, since round 8, he only has 1 score under 100 (a 96) but of the scores over 100, 8 of the 10 scores have been over 110. Very similar to Rory Laird, insane consistency, and we can only enjoy them as defenders for 3 more games.

Jake Lloyd

Was solid last week with a 97, and now hasn’t gone under 90 in has last 5. Took all 6 of the Swans kick ins last week, and played on from all 6 which is great for us. I think he is a safe 100+ for the remaining 3 games, so if you need a defender for around 700k, I think he is a great shout.

 

Hawthorn vs Collingwood @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Jonathon Ceglar, Oliver Hanrahan, Jacob Koschitzke, Josh Morris, Harry Morrison

OUT

Luke Bruest (Injured), Denver Grainger-Barras (Managed)

Collingwood

IN

Mason Cox, Josh Daicos, Beau McCreery, Tom Wilson

OUT

Nathan Murphy (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Lachlan Bramble

Had a poorer score of 52 last week, but I think he should bounce back to a 70+ this week against Collingwood. Had been solid in his previous 4 games with scores of 65, 99, 73 and 81.

Tom Mitchell

Loves playing Collingwood, averages 129.2 in his career 8 games against them. Even though the game has been moved from UTAS to the MCG, I think he should still be great and a great captain option on the Sunday.

Steele Sidebottom

Another player who is great value this week at 607k. Has moved back into the midfield with the injury to Scott Pendlebury, and has backed that up with scores of 88 and 114. Has a great matchup with the Hawks this week, and should go 100+ once again.

 

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Taylor Duryea, Lachlan McNeil, Ed Richards, Adam Treloar, Lewis Young

OUT

Mitch Hannan (Injured), Cody Weightman (Managed)

Essendon

IN

Martin Gleeson, Matt Guelfi, Cale Hooker, Andrew Phillips, Alec Waterman

OUT

Dyson Heppell (Injured), Kyle Langford (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Josh Dunkley

I have my eye on Dunkley, as he will be close to 700k next week. I now he had a poor score with only 53 last week, but all of the Dogs mids were poor besides Bailey Smith and Libba, Macrae 81, Hunter 78, Bont 75 and Dunkley 53. His breakeven is now 158 and will be closer to 700k and if he scores well this week, I think you can jump on for the final 2 games of the season.

Zach Merrett

Can you trust him as your captain? Went 64 when many people had him captain 2 weeks ago, then followed it up with a 142. Looking at his scores this season, you should be able to with only 3 scores under 100 all season, but the Dogs as we know are really tough to score on so even though I think he can go 100+, I think it will be between 100-120, and there are better options for your captain this week.

Jordan Ridley/Nick Hind

With Dyson Heppell missing this week, I think both Ridley and Hind will bounce back after last week. In the 3 games Heppell has missed this season, they have both been really good. Ridley has scored 109, 124 and 100, and Hind has scored 83, 97 and 112. If you were looking to trade, I think you can hold for at least 1 more week.

 

Fremantle vs Brisbane @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, cloudy with occasional light rain (75% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Brett Bewley, Ethan Hughes, Nathan O’Driscoll (Debut), Alex Pearce

OUT

Bailey Banfield (Injured)

Brisbane

IN

Connor Ballenden, Thomas Berry, Rhys Mathieson, Jaxon Prior, Deven Robertson

OUT

James Madden (Omitted), Lachie Neale (Illness)

 

Players to Watch

Andrew Brayshaw

Went massive last week against Richmond with a 156, but has actually been quietly amazing for people that don’t own him since round 4. Only 4 scores under 100 (83, 95, 92 and 96) but of the 10 100+ scores, 8 of them have been over 110 and showed a big ceiling last week. Has 3 good matchups to finish the year so if you want a POD in your midfield (owned by only 3.9%), I think Andy Brayshaw could be your man.

Daniel Rich

Went big last week with a 115, and had 60 points at QT! Ahaha call me greedy, but I would have wanted a 120+. Ahaha nah 115 is still great, and has 3 amazing matchups to finish the year with Fremantle, Collingwood and West Coast. Only has 1 game under 80 all year which shows his consistency, and should average 100+ for the remaining 3 games.

Jarryd Lyons

Still only owned by 6.9% of the comp, and is averaging 115.8 for the year? He is having a great year, and went big last week with 153. 4 of his last 7 games have been 130+, showing his massive ceiling, and with Fremantle, Collingwood and West Coast in the final 3, he could average 120+ in those 3 games.

 

West Coast vs Melbourne @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, windy and raining (95% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Luke Edwards, Jackson Nelson, Nathan Vardy, Alex Witherden

OUT

Xavier O’Neill (Omitted)

Melbourne

IN

Jake Melksham, Joel Smith, Sam Weideman, Aaron VandenBerg

OUT

Jack Viney (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Andrew Gaff

Has been great the last 3 weeks, with 3 scores of 100+ for only the 2nd time this season. He hasn’t gone 4+ games with 100+, and unfortunately as an owner, I don’t think that will change this week. Weather is really bad with it meant to be raining and windy, so it will be tough for Gaff to get a big score as marking is a big part of his scoring. I hope I am wrong and he goes 100+, but I am not so sure he will. Scored 84 against North in poor conditions, and I think we will probably see something similar this week.

Christian Petracca

Has been great this year, but has been massive since round 12. Only 2 scores under 100 (98 and 90), but of the 6 tons, all of them are over 113, and 4 of them over 126.

Clayton Oliver

Looks to really have bounced back after his mid season form slump, with 3 scores in a row of 110+. The expected wet conditions on Monday night will also really suit Oliver, and could be big to finish the round. Could even be a captain option.

My Trades

Taranto -> Marshall

Bianco -> Sidebottom

 

After hearing the news of Paul Hunter being omitted and the possibility of Ryder not playing in the final 3 games, that completely changed my trade plans. I think it means Marshall is insane value at 637k. If I want both Marshall and Sidebottom, I need to cull a bigger player to upgrade Bianco (who I am worried won’t get named) to Sidebottom so Taranto would need to go. He is named in a forward pocket, and Hopper should be back next week so the forward role could continue for the rest of the season which is disappointing. If Bianco stays named, I have considered holding Taranto and changing my trades to Harry Jones down to a rookie (maybe Rioli or a non playing rookie) and then Isaac Cumming up to Tom Mitchell or Jarryd Lyons, and have also considered Brayden Fiorini as a cheaper option to those 2. I feel as though Marshall and Sidebottom are great value, but I am concerned as I don’t have a stand out captain option with Hall, Laird, Walsh, Mills, Merrett, Oliver, Macrae, Grundy and Gawn all in the mix but lacking a Steele/Touk/Mitchell/Lyons player to rely on for captain each week. So important decisions, especially seeing as I am in my competitive league semi final this week.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 21!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. The Kid

    August 6, 2021 at 1:32 pm

    Hey Bailey,

    Great article. Who would you vice out of walsh/mills/wines?

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:23 am

      Thanks man, appreciate it. I would VC Mills out of the 3. Walsh may cop attention from Swallow and Wines maybe from Keays/Schoenberg

  2. Jay

    August 6, 2021 at 1:47 pm

    Elimination final – have 148k in bank before trades
    Team differences below with mine bring on the left and we both have Neale to trade first but opposition has
    I Smith to worry about and we both have Taranto too.

    Crisp vs Lloyd
    Houston vs Hill
    Keays vs Titch
    Hunter vs Wines
    Stephenson vs Harmes
    Sharp vs Bergman
    Marshall vs I Smith

    Who goes – Houston/ sharp/ Taranto
    My team missing a touk/ Steele/ Lyons

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:24 am

      I would have traded one of Houston or Sharp first and kept Taranto so I hope you did that. I guess Houston could go first as Sharp has shown he can go 100+, but then again Sharp got 34 last week and he is a rookie so toss of the coin. If you need the extra coin from Houston, trade him

  3. Campbell

    August 6, 2021 at 1:57 pm

    Hey Bailey,

    Thoughts on Steele vs Touk

    Steele has a tough two weeks coming up and Miller has a nice run home ?

    Cheers

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:26 am

      Ahaha yeah that is the million dollar question. I reckon that decision is whoever you would want more in your team. Steele has tougher games, but 6 of his last 8 have been over 130 but Touk has the better matchup. Toss a coin

  4. Miyagi-san

    August 6, 2021 at 3:44 pm

    Friday aug 6. Weekend forecast. 3 points – Bailey!

    Bank $111k. Team:
    D: Laird Mills Hall Newman Harmes Hind (Bianco Walker)
    M: Lyons Merrett Brayshaw Oliver Macrae Parish J.Kelly Taranto (Garcia West O’Connor)
    R: Grundy Gawn (Reeves)
    F: Zorko DeGoat Danger Marshall Sidebottom Bramble (Honey Ginnivan)

    Thinking: Bramble/Bianco out. J.Kelly to FWD. 170k Def in with best MID under 806k (thinking Bont/Guthrie/Fiorini)

    Can only get to big big dog mid if I trade Bramble with one of D4-6. Thinking atm that Fiorini comes in – would love to know your thoughts though!

    Keep up the great work legend!

    Arigatou gozaimasu!

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:27 am

      Ahaha thanks man, appreciate the kind words. If you were looking for a mid under 800k, I think Fiorini is a really good shout, but with Kelly out tonight, I assume you traded him to someone. Hope it worked out 👍

  5. TB

    August 6, 2021 at 4:28 pm

    Taranto to Lyons or Fiorini (100k) less?
    Lyons seems the better option but with neale out does de boer go to him?

    • Simon

      August 6, 2021 at 4:31 pm

      Unlikely De Boer tags him seeing as he doesn’t play at Freo anymore mate. Wrong matchup

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:28 am

      If you traded Taranto, I would have gone Lyons as he is the better pick I think. Hopefully you kept Taranto and traded someone else

  6. Chris

    August 6, 2021 at 8:33 pm

    well Kelly the late out didn’t ruin my chance this week.. trading him for Danger did (thanks Toby). bloody hell Im no hope now.

    • Cooper

      August 6, 2021 at 9:01 pm

      Bloody hell Toby Greene! What a goose

    • Bill

      August 6, 2021 at 11:23 pm

      Grub, Toby Greene should get at least four weeks.

      • Dulcify

        August 7, 2021 at 10:08 am

        Not having Dangerfield, Toby gets my +3 this week.

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 12:29 am

      Oh man that sucks. That has been the tail of my season, carnage week in, week out. It’s alright, we only have 2 weeks after this week to go

  7. Dukx

    August 7, 2021 at 11:28 am

    You done it yet again Cal……Congrates on stuffing peoples teams up by telling them to delete Toranto

    • Den

      August 7, 2021 at 12:30 pm

      Make your own decisions 🤦🤯

    • Albo

      August 7, 2021 at 2:19 pm

      I’m sure Calvin held him.

  8. Bill

    August 7, 2021 at 1:03 pm

    Lost Danger, and no back up for Kelly.
    But my finals opponents are not that flash this week either, so I could still squeak in.

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 3:07 pm

      Hopefully you do mate. Good luck 👍

  9. Ando the brain dead barfly

    August 7, 2021 at 1:15 pm

    To field?
    Jack Ginnivan or Josh Honey?

    • Bailey

      August 7, 2021 at 3:08 pm

      I would have gone Josh Honey out of the 2, or if you could have loopholed Honey to see what he does. Hopefully you get the best score 👍

      • Ando the brain dead barfly

        August 7, 2021 at 5:32 pm

        I went Honey. Cheers Bailey. Ando

  10. Jay1

    August 7, 2021 at 9:05 pm

    LOVE the Mills carnage!!

    If people get his average, am I allowed to switch my Captain from Steele back to Mills?

  11. Bec

    August 7, 2021 at 9:37 pm

    Exum always looks lost on the court

    def not like his Dad

    how he gets games I don’t know

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