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The Season

Weekend Forecast – Round 15

Here’s your weekend primer from Bailey.

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Finally, the byes are behind us and we can move all of our best players back onto our fields. Hopefully you improved your team over the byes, and have less rookies on your field and more premiums. I currently have 3 rookies on field post trades (Stocker, Highmore and Poulter) and brought in Houston, Oliver, J Kelly, Whitfield and Hunter while holding Brodie Grundy in the process.

How did you go during the byes? Leave your bye review in the comments section below along with all your other questions and comments.

 

Thursday Night Footy – Brisbane vs Geelong @ The Gabba

We also had Thursday night footy back and what a spicy game it was between the Brisbane Lions and Geelong Cats. The Lions dominated the Cats all night in a resounding performance, putting the Lions in a great positon for top 4. Here is what came out of it from a fantasy perspective:

Zorko (142) – Went absolutely massive to give his coaches a big boost to start the round. If you were lucky enough to have him as your VC, lock in those double points! As for coaches who don’t own him, like myself, jump on board when you can. Has a great run to finish the year.

Cam Guthrie (112) – Just kept trying and trying, and got himself to a good score.

Lachie Neale (106) – One of the greatest efforts to get to a ton I have seen. When he went down, we thought he may be out for a while. Instead comes back on, and scores 81 points in the 2nd half if you don’t mind. As long as his shoulder is fine, great option to bring in.

Daniel Rich (104) – Good score and great to get a ton against a usually very restrictive Cats team.

Patrick Dangerfield (94) – May not have got the ton, but started looking back to the Danger we love (besides turning the ball over a few times). Good option to also bring in next week as he will be under 650k!

Jarryd Lyons (91) – Not quite the score his coaches were after, but at least in his poorer fantasy games, he still gets 90’s.

Tom Stewart (51) – I absolutely love Tom Stewart, one of my favourite players. But this is my slight concern and why I don’t own him. There is the odd occasion where he does a more lockdown role. Should bounce back next week

Now, let’s get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Richmond vs St Kilda @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 9°C, light rain is likely (84% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Dion Prestia, Samson Ryan (Debut)

OUT

Josh Caddy (Omitted), Hugo Ralphsmith (Medi-Sub), Daniel Rioli (Omitted)

St Kilda

IN

Rowan Marshall, Daniel McKenzie, Tim Membrey, Seb Ross

OUT

Jack Bytel (Injured), Hunter Clark (Injured), Nick Coffield (Omitted), Paul Hunter (Omitted), Jack Lone (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Dustin Martin

If he doesn’t cop attention from a Luke Dunstan or Seb Ross, I expect a big game from Dusty. Has copped attention in the past though so a small flag.

Tom Highmore

If his role was anything to go by against the Crows, 1) should hold his spot for the foreseeable future and 2) should score well and rise in cash a lot of the next 2-3 weeks. Good option to play on field if you need a rookie.

Samson Ryan

The big man is making his debut, but unless you desperately want a ruck for your bench to make some dollars for the next 1 or 2 weeks max, then you could take a punt on Samson Ryan.

Collingwood vs Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, light rain early but sun and clouds in afternoon (64% chance of rain) ***ROOF WILL BE OPEN DUE TO COVID PROTOCOLS PLACED IN MELBOURNE***

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Taylor Adams, Mason Cox, Brodie Grundy

OUT

Jordan De Goey (Suspension), Max Lynch (Omitted), Darcy Moore (Injured), Jay Rantall (Medi-Sub)

Fremantle

IN

Nat Fyfe, Griffin Logue, Sam Switkowski, Matt Taberner, Nathan Wilson

OUT

Brett Bewley (Omitted), Connor Blakely (Medi-Sub), Reece Conca (Omitted), Mitch Crowden (Omitted), Taylin Duman (Omitted), Joel Western (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Scott Pendlebury

Probably the buy of the week. Down 213k since the start of the year due to a finger injury and playing forward, Pendles looks like he will be back in the guts and across half-back. Priced at 592k for a guy who should average 95-100 for the rest of the year, lock and load!

Brodie Grundy

Ruck Pig is back! For those looking to bring him in, I think you can, but you could also wait a week to have a look and make sure he is right. But for those who held him through the byes (like myself), enjoy having the big man back.

Taylor Adams

Another underpriced premium making his return from injury. Priced at 723k, and breakeven of 127, you would want to have a look first this week. But for a guy who averages over 110 most years, if we see something this week, jump on.

Luke Ryan

Has been quietly getting it done over his past 6 games, with 5 scores over 90 including 3 tons. If you can’t afford the guys over 700k, could be a sneaky POD option.

 

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast @ Blundstone Arena

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Will Phillips

OUT

Tom Powell (Managed), Bailey Scott (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Ben Ainsworth, Josh Corbett, Jeremy Sharp

OUT

Chris Burgess (Omitted), Brayden Fiorini (Medi-Sub), David Swallow (Injured), Lachie Weller (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Aaron Hall

Robbie Tarrant back, is it a worry? No. Luke McDonald, concerns? No. What a year Aaron Hall is having. Averaging 122 since his concussion in round 5. Unreal. One of the best fantasy players to watch play this year. Great VC option.

Touk Miller

The Touk Touk train keeps rolling, and rolling really quickly towards 900k. Can he be the first player the crack 900k this year? Needs at least 121 to get there which I think he can, and also the No.1 captain option by Calvin this week. Averaging 119.2 this year, nuts! Should be huge.

Matt Rowell

Again, similar to last week, but 28k cheaper at 464k. If we see something this week, bargain next week.

Jeremy Sharp

Priced at 221k, could be a sneaky option given not a lot of people will do it. Job security should be okay for the next couple of weeks with players out.

Port Adelaide vs Sydney @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, cloudy

Team Lineups

Port Adelaide

IN

Todd Marshall, Dylan Williams (Debut)

OUT

Robbie Gray (Injured), Lachie Jones (Injured), Peter Ladhams (Omitted)

Sydney

IN

Kaiden Brand, Errol Gulden

OUT

Logan McDonald (Omitted), Lewis Taylor (Medi-Sub), Sam Wicks (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Dan Houston

Still value at 584k, but the injuries worry me a little. I jumped on last week, and went off for a short period. I can only assume cramp as we haven’t heard anything.

Dylan Williams

A debutant at 170k, and have heard good things about him. With most 170k rookies, I usually say wait a week as they don’t rise more than 20k for the week, but if you need a 170k guy, I think Dylan Williams is your man.

Joel Amartey

In my eyes, a must have. 74 and 92 in his first 2 games, breakeven of -29 and priced at 261k, I think you can play him on field comfortably. Will most likely be over 300k next week. Probably last chance to get on the boat, so don’t miss out!

 

Essendon vs Melbourne @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 9°C, showers expected (68% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Alec Waterman

OUT

Ned Cahill (Omitted), Tom Cutler (Medi-Sub)

Melbourne

IN

Jack Viney

OUT

Kade Chandler (Medi-Sub), Sam Weideman (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Darcy Parish

Now, for those who jumped on last week, the 84 wasn’t great, but I think he bounces back this week. If he doesn’t however, a move from him down to an Adams or Neale (if he is okay), would get you over 150k. A move down to Danger or Pendles would get you over 250k. Just something to think about.

Jordan Ridley

Looked to play his normal role again last week for an 87, but more importantly, 7 kick ins from Essendon’s 13, all of which he played on from. If he can back it up against Melbourne this week, at 559k, good cheap option to bring in.

Clayton Oliver

I may have cursed Clarry! I have only owned him for 2 games, and have gotten 2 80’s for it so far. I paid 832k for him! I expect a response this week, surely.

James Harmes

Viney back could be a slight worry for Harmes owners. The reason I jumped off last week when he was on his bye. I think Oliver, Petracca and Viney are ahead of him, but will be interesting to see what happens.

 

GWS vs Hawthorn @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, cloudy with occasional showers (52% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

Tanner Bruhn, Brent Daniels, Shane Mumford

OUT

 

Hawthorn

IN

Denver Grainger-Barras (Debut), Damon Greaves, Kyle Hartigan, James Worpel

OUT

Jarmen Impey (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Nick Haynes

Another great value option this week. Combined 24 marks in the past 2 weeks with 107 and 95. Should be good against the Hawks.

Tim Taranto

If you don’t own Touk, this man is the go to captain option this week. 145 last week, 2 140+ scores in his last 3, and plays the easiest team for midfielders in the Hawks. Juicy.

Josh Kelly/Lachie Whitfield

Both should be big this week. Still great options to bring in if you didn’t jump on during the byes.

Denver Grainger-Barras

A bit expensive for a rookie priced at 260k. I don’t think many will jump on, especially with low scores in the VFL. If we see a big score on debut, then we have a different conversation next week.

Tom Phillips

Needs to go. Hasn’t lived up to the price tag this year. Did you know, Darcy Parish and Ben Keays were around the same price? Both averaging 110. Phillips is averaging 74.4, highest score of 87. THAT WAS IN ROUND 1! I would get rid of him before a rookie if I am honest. If you have Poulter for example, keep Poulter 100%.

 

West Coast vs Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, windy with rain likely (99% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Tim Kelly, Jeremy McGovern, Jack Petruccelle, Brad Sheppard, Luke Shuey, Nathan Vardy

OUT

Harry Edwards (Omitted), Luke Foley (Omitted), Xavier O’Neill (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Riley Garcia, Ed Richards, Josh Schache

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Andrew Gaff

Now then. My man Gaffy. His best mate Shuey is back, along with Tim Kelly and Elliot Yeo already being there makes me excited as a Gaff owner. The one game Gaff played with Shuey this year, a 154 against Port. And at the start of last year when all of the mids played together, Gaff was up there as one of the best 2 mids in fantasy, along with Neale. Now lets just hope all the Eagles can stay fit.

Shannon Hurn

Another value option in defence. Priced at 606k and breakeven of 59, with all the troopers back, could be big to finish the year. One I am keeping a close eye on.

Lachie Hunter

Still value at 662k. I just wish Bevo played Hunter on a wing for the whole game. Just drop Roarke Smith and play Hunter on a wing, and everything is good.

 

Carlton vs Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, cloudy with occasional showers (52% chance of rain) ***ROOF WILL BE OPEN DUE TO COVID PROTOCOLS PLACED IN MELBOURNE***

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Matthew Cottrell, Josh Honey, Marc Murphy, Lochie O’Brien, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Lachie Plowman

OUT

Zac Fisher (Injured), Luke Parks (Omitted), Marc Pittonet (Injured)

Adelaide

IN

Luke Brown, Jackson Hately, Elliot Himmelberg, Nick Murray

OUT

Josh Worrell (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Ben Keays

Well, I never saw Ben Keays averaging 109.8 this year, even as a Crows supporter I would have thought it was nuts to think that. However, he is having a great season. Even though he has risen 208k to be priced at 817k, if your chasing a unique, jump on Keays, ownership of only 3.5%! Hasn’t gone under 90 all year, and his last 4 scores, 126, 129, 115, and 122. If his name was Macrae (apart from Finlay) or Merrett, we would be all over it.

Reilly O’Brien

Pittonet out means big ROB is up against TDK. Great matchup for him and should reward his owners.

My Trades

Flynn -> Amartey

Lazzaro -> Pendlebury

Trades pretty straight forward this week. I feel Amartey is a must with a breakeven of -29, but will be on my ruck bench this week. Then moving a rookie off my bench in Lazzaro and upgrading to the value of Pendlebury. I feel a lot of people will be bringing in the combo of Amartey and Pendlebury this week. I have considered Haynes but I would rather Pendlebury and move for a guy like Dangerfield next week.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 15!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Martin Petersen

    June 25, 2021 at 7:23 pm

    Great update…thanks

    • Bailey

      June 25, 2021 at 9:01 pm

      No worries man, thanks for reading 👍

  2. Bec

    June 25, 2021 at 7:54 pm

    I had no choice in putting Short as my VC as I have 29 green dots, and the only other dot is Macrae
    (the bad 1) and that game is 1st up tomorrow,
    Didnt get Dusty went Pendles this week so hopefully not a wated VC this week

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

    • Bailey

      June 25, 2021 at 9:02 pm

      Well Short 66 at half time hopefully gets a good score for you. Yeah I would have gone Pendles first over Dusty. Dusty next week against Collingwood will be a good bye

  3. Bec

    June 25, 2021 at 9:07 pm

    thx Bailey, was tossing up all week whether Pens or Dusty,
    only went Pendles as he was cheaper, but Dusty had the less BE

    and thought its should be raining at the “G” and Pens will have perfect conditions at Marvel

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

    • Bailey

      June 26, 2021 at 12:06 am

      Unfortunately the roof will be open at Marvel due to COVID restrictions in Melbourne so conditions may not be great as it could rain. But I think Pendles scores more than Dusty for the rest of the year

      • Bec

        June 26, 2021 at 12:14 pm

        Oh really , didn’t relise that the roof would be open,
        stupid covid rubbish

        from the girl who loves her feet slimed

  4. Bill

    June 25, 2021 at 11:45 pm

    Richmond gone for the year? Might be best to avoid their players.

    • Bailey

      June 26, 2021 at 12:08 am

      Yeah potentially a good idea. I think Short is good for now, taking majority of kick ins and getting heavily involved with chips in the D50. Maybe when they have Lions and Cats back to back you could move him to a top 6 defender. Same with Dusty. Besides those 2, not much else

  5. Belly

    June 26, 2021 at 12:17 pm

    Take Highmores 62 at D6 or field Bianco?

    • Bailey

      June 26, 2021 at 6:04 pm

      I would have taken Highmore’s 62 but didn’t really matter I guess with Bianco 56

  6. Bec

    June 26, 2021 at 10:03 pm

    5 from 5 ton’s in the MID so far. Cunnington really paying off
    pitty I didn’t put the “C” on Merrit, GUN

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

    • Dulcify

      June 26, 2021 at 10:47 pm

      Hindsight is a wonderful thing Bec. I captained him last week, couldn’t do it this week.😳

  7. Bec

    June 27, 2021 at 12:01 am

    yep, oh well, shoulda, coulda, didn’t.

    I’ve got the option of Taranto or Laird for CAPT.
    Leaning towards Laird to be honest

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

    • TradingTops

      June 27, 2021 at 2:59 am

      Shoulda, woulda coulda were the last words of the fool. Classic song. From a guy who loves Essendon.

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