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visolate’s PODs – Chic and Unique – Rd. 16

James has some players with low ownership to consider bringing in.

G’day. I have with me some more PODs to consider for the last half or so of the season. I generally opt for players who represent value even if a little bit which is why I’ve avoided players like the Jarryd Lyons, Ben Keays and Cam Guthrie types. They may be PODs, but they’re the first players you think of when you hear “POD” so they’re gaining the same sort of traction anyway. I haven’t selected an ownership cutoff but just playing it by ear on how often I hear these players talked about. I have included each player’s top 100 ownership (courtesy of Heff from The Keeper League (@Heff_KL)) which I feel is a slightly better representation of a players true ownership though most of them end up being 0% anyway.

In each players bio, I’ve also included an average differential for their fixtures for remainder of the season. This differential is essentially how much a team concedes to a certain position relative to that players season average. e.g. Melbourne have a ruck differential of -10.1. This means that on average, rucks against Melbourne scored 10.1 points less than their season average. So if a player has a larger positive differential, that means an easier run home. This looks at data from this year only and looks at the top three ranked players per team per game. Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia (@DFSAustralia) for this data. (go check out the website, unbelievably useful https://www.dfsaustralia-apps.com/shiny/player-team-stats/)

DEFENDERS

BEST BET: Shannon Hurn ($642k DEF; priced @ 88; 0% owned; +5.6 differential)

Has been quietly getting it done for his (apparently non-existent) owners averaging 97.6 since returning from injury in Round 10. Would actually be averaging 101.5 if discounting his injured score of 6 which makes him the seventh-highest averaging defender (including DPP guys like Ziebell and Hall). Is on the wrong side of 30 age-wise but you can’t argue with the numbers he’s putting up. Has a monopoly on the kick-ins as we know. His floor is great with a low score of 77, two in the 90s and the rest 100+. Hurn has yet to play with Witherden in the regular season but still took 67% of the kick-ins in preseason compared to Witherden’s 22% and scored the 91. Has been traded in by 290 coaches at the time of writing.

PUNT ON: Luke Ryan ($654k DEF; priced @ 89; 0% owned; +4.1 differential)

A 91.6 average in his last five and 100.3 in his last three, Luke Ryan has quietly been in some great form. His 86 last week would have probably been higher had he not come off for a bit with a knock (84% TOG when he had been 89%+). Does have a ceiling in him with a career-high 138 in 2017 and has tonned up in 3/11 games this year. Has had a few role changes depending on the availability of the key backs but Pearce and Logue look to be alright so Ryan should return to his intercepting best. Plays CAR and HAW in his next two who have +3.0 and +4.8 average differentials respectively. Has been traded in by 14 coaches at the time of writing.

FOR THE BRAVE: Daniel Howe and his wing role.

MIDFIELDERS

BEST BET: Taylor Adams ($723k MID; priced @ 99; 0% owned; +11.1 differential)

While I think most will go for Lachie Neale, sitting at $6k less is one Taylor Adams. I guess the main concern is his durability but at this point, you’ve gotta take a risk somewhere and hoping Adams stays fit for another eight games isn’t too bad. His scoring has never been in doubt as he showed with a 116 against Fremantle last week. What’s most encouraging though, is his season-high 85% TOG on his first game back from a knee injury. Has averaged 114 twice now and is priced at only 99. Next three games are fairly easy with STK, RIC and CAR coming up. Has been traded in by 303 coaches at the time of writing.

PUNT ON: Travis Boak ($717k MID; priced @ 98; 2% owned; +10.8 differential)

Boak at his best can be a 108+ midfielder. He went 106 in 2019 and that was with a worse second half. Has copped a bit of attention this year (98 v GEE) most recently against the Swans where scored 119 (27 first half before being let off the hook for a 92 point second half). Can’t really see him getting tagged for the rest of the year except for the GWS game but then again we saw de Boer not go to anyone last week so who knows? I can see him pushing that 106 again which makes him eight points underpriced. Has been traded in by 126 coaches at the time of writing.

FOR THE BRAVE: Bailey Smith but keep in mind Luke Beveridge exists.

RUCKS

Let’s not stuff around in this department.

FOR THE BRAVE: Reilly O’Brien and pray he goes 114 again.

FORWARDS

BEST BET: Kyle Langford ($708k MID/FWD; priced @ 97; 12% owned; +8.7 differential)

His CBAs have dropped significantly the past two weeks (26% vs 69% from Rounds 9-12 inclusive) but can still pump out a big one as shown with his 114 v MEL last week. Hits all the stat lines which is comforting to see and plays that high TOG (85%+). Upcoming fixtures is a bit split between hard and soft matchups but that shouldn’t faze Langford too much. Can be a 100 guy for the rest of the year which makes him three points underpriced. Has been traded in by 220 coaches at the time of writing.

PUNT ON: Jake Stringer ($526k FWD; priced @ 72; 0% owned; -1.1 differential)

Players you didn’t think would be Fantasy relevant in 2021 – Jake Stringer joins Aaron Hall in this very rare club with scores of 96 and 136 in his last two. This is a direct correlation with CBA percentages of 84 and 85 in his last two. Peep the table below. (The GWS game has been omitted since he was injured early)

>50% CBAs <50% CBAs
n(Games) 6 3
Average 92.17 52.33
Ceiling 136 64
Floor 77 37

We’re assuming this role for Stringer continues so we should get numbers akin to the left column. The floor of 77 is really encouraging, at worst he will make you a bit of coin (27 BE) if he doesn’t fire like we think he will. Can be 20+ points of value. Has been traded in by 951 coaches at the time of writing.

FOR THE BRAVE: Matthew Kennedy and Jordan de Goey/Goat.

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18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Fantasy

    July 1, 2021 at 12:38 pm

    Hi, how do you figure out what players are priced @

    • Aby Benny

      July 1, 2021 at 1:05 pm

      on the fantasy website it says under their name their price.

      • Anthony (@Tanaglias)

        July 1, 2021 at 2:25 pm

        I think he’s refering to what the price would correlate to an average. ie. if your 730k that would equate to 100 points averaged. essentially divide their price by 7.3 and that’s what there price would equate to at a steady state.

        I’m probably not the best person to explain it, but that’s the jist of it

        • BzG

          July 1, 2021 at 6:15 pm

          Cheers, thx for this. Have always wanted to know. Makes perfect sense now.👊

  2. Aby Benny

    July 1, 2021 at 1:06 pm

    zorko and sharp or newman with docherty out and pendles?

  3. David C

    July 1, 2021 at 1:22 pm

    Zorko will be overpriced soon, might be the last chance to get him. Also keeps the cash gen going. The other 2 will score you more points on the field this week though. Tough call. I’m getting Zorko this week with Neale out.

    • Screech

      July 1, 2021 at 2:14 pm

      +1

  4. Nathan Grant

    July 1, 2021 at 2:19 pm

    Thoughts on getting Zorko this week but will have to field 1 outta Amartey, Briggs, Madden or a newly named forward rookie at F6

    • Cooper

      July 1, 2021 at 4:12 pm

      Madden out 1-2 weeks. See if Briggs,Amartey named

    • K

      July 1, 2021 at 7:43 pm

      Yep get Zorks. Amartey playing and will make you cash this week

  5. Josh

    July 1, 2021 at 2:32 pm

    Hi James,

    Any help with my trades this week would be much appreciated

    DEF: Crisp, Docherty, Stewart, Cumming , Houston and Bianco

    MIDS: Macrae, Parish, Taranto, Titch, Merrett , Oliver, Walsh, Newcombe

    RUC: Gawn, Amartey

    FWD: Zorko, Kelly, Hall, Hunter, Martin, Dale

    Cheers.

    • Henry

      July 1, 2021 at 4:23 pm

      James, difficult as you haven’t named your 8 bench players. But of priority is getting rid of Docherty who prob won’t play again this year and getting Amartey at least off the field and getting a decent ruck.

      • Josh

        July 1, 2021 at 5:48 pm

        Was think Docherty and Dale to Grundy and Stringer ? That then allows me through DPP on my bench to get amartey of my field.

        • BzG

          July 1, 2021 at 6:17 pm

          Yup, great play, love it.

  6. Petracca

    July 1, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    I think I’m going to lock in Hind to Danger as my first trade, then thinking of 1 of the following for the 2nd:
    1. Safe: ROB to Grundy (get a keeper that I will want at some stage, but maybe 15-20 point increase).
    2. Safe: Harmes to Adams or Crisp (maybe a 20-25 point increase)
    3. High risk: Alec Waterman to Matt Kennedy, takes final rook (Bianco or Newcombe) off field. Could be a +40 point increase if Kennedy is a 90 guy as per his last 2 games since returning. Named on the ball in the team sheets.

    Thoughts?

  7. Jeff

    July 2, 2021 at 1:51 am

    Which pair to bring in Ridley and Whitfield or Houston and rich

  8. Bec

    July 4, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    Cunnington is my pick of the year got him in RND 7 and was just keeping him to the bye.
    looks like I might be keeping him for the rest of the year

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

    • BzG

      July 5, 2021 at 11:20 pm

      Yeah, great pick. My +3 for the season is Ben Keays and he’s still firing for me after the byes.

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