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The Season

Weekend Forecast – Round 16

Bailey helps you get sorted for round 16.

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

We are staring to come to the pointy end of the season, with now only 8 rounds to go. We all still need to continue to get rookies off of our field, but we were hit with carnage yesterday with Sam Docherty to likely miss the remainder of the season with an ankle syndesmosis injury that requires surgery, and Lachie Neale with a calf injury that he was expected to miss 2-3 weeks, but has been named but I would still suspect will be a late out. So for some coaches, it might be injury affected trades, which have been a common theme for a lot of coaches this season.

 

Thursday Night Footy – Gold Coast vs Richmond @ Marvel Stadium

In quite a scrappy and bizarre game, the Gold Coast Suns got the win in an upset at Marvel Stadium. Not really too much fantasy related went on last night but there was one train (Touk Touk) that kept on rollin.

Touk Miller (141) – This guy is an absolute gun. 36 touches, to go with 7 marks and 7 tackles. He just knows how to get it done every week, and his work rate is amazing. Just goes to show that the premium midfielders you need are the ones that can both mark and tackle the ball each week, and he is one of them. If you had him VC, 100% take it and enjoy.

Matt Rowell (71) – Looked a lot better 2nd half, but still, only 23 points in a half is not what we are looking for. I think that he won’t be an option for us now at this stage of the season unless you have no money to upgrade your final rookie and he shows a big ton. However, will be cheap next year and discounted so will be an option in 2022.

Dustin Martin (69) – I love Dusty, still love watching one of the greatest of all time, but unfortunately this is why he does my head in in fantasy. He doesn’t have a high mark and tackle game (only 1 mark and 2 tackles) and very rarely scores above 110 and can score you a 50. I wouldn’t be really looking at him as an option besides just name value because after this week against Collingwood, where he should be good, he has the Lions and Cats back to back. If I have no other pressing issues, I may even trade Dusty out after next week because I don’t think he will consistently get you over 100.

Jayden Short (65) – Thanks Jayden for that effort, really appreciate it! Wow for me and everyone else that started with Short over Mills, what a blunder that was. It looked like he spent a lot of time on Rankine when Gold Coast were attacking, then Sexton was man marking him all the time when Richmond were going forward. Frustrating but we move on.

Jeremy Sharp (62) – Recovered well, considering he was on 18 at half time. Still you take that score from a rookie, and from where he was as well.

Shai Bolton (55) – Has been really poor recently. Back to back 50’s since the bye and breakeven was 124 so really starting to slide in price now. I would suggest a trade, but if you have other issues, you might have to hold.

Now, let’s get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Geelong vs Essendon @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 4°C, steady light rain expected throughout the night (68% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Gryan Miers, Rhys Stanley

OUT

Shaun Higgins (Managed), Mark O’Connor (Injured), Esava Ratugolea (Managed)

Essendon

IN

Tom Cutler, Will Snelling

OUT

Matt Guelfi (Omitted), David Zaharakis (Medi-Sub), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Patrick Dangerfield

After starting to look back to himself last week with a 94, Danger is a great option to bring in. Personally, I will be waiting one more week to see but you can bring him in this week as he will be a top 6 forward from here on.

Sam Menegola

Even though he had a stinker last week with 58 (most of the Geelong players had stinkers last week), I still think he could be an underpriced option. Priced at 588k, we have seen Menegola average over 100 and be a great fantasy player, and Mitch Duncan being out for the rest of the season I think will help Menegola.

Isaac Smith

Similar to Menegola, but instead he is a MID/FWD and took some kick ins last week which interested me. I would still pick Dangerfield ahead of him, but I think you can have both in your forward line.

Zach Merrett/Darcy Parish

With O’Connor out injured, Merrett and Parish will be able to roam free without attention. I would still be hesitant to make either captain or vice captain, as Geelong are quite restrictive, especially down at GMHBA. You can VC them if you have no other options to do so, but I think options later in the round are better plays this week.

Jake Stringer

“The Package” has been on fire the last 2 weeks, with 136 and 97 in his last 2. With a breakeven of only 27, and priced at 526k, can be a real nice option as a stepping stone to a premium. It is very risky however as we haven’t seen much consistency from Stringer in his career…yet!

Jordon Ridley

One of the many underpriced options in defence you can look at bringing in. I think Ridley is a great player, but with Heppell, Redman and Hind all back there with him, I don’t think we will see the 110+ scores from him at the start of the year, but I still think he can be a safe 85-100 type player for the rest of the year.

Melbourne vs GWS @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 10°C, overcast with potential showers (43% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

 

OUT

Nathan Jones (Injured)

GWS

IN

Tom Green, Shane Mumford

OUT

Kieren Briggs (Omitted), Sam Reid (Omitted), Matt De Boer (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Clayton Oliver

With De Boer being dropped for this game, it fills me and the rest of his coaches a sigh of relief. I still haven’t seen Oliver crack a ton since owning him 3 weeks ago (I am sure I have cursed him) but with De Boer out, I am hoping the curse will be lifted and we see Oliver crack the ton again for the first time since round 11.

Christian Salem

An underpriced option, but a bit more than the pack of Newman, Ridley, Haynes, etc. But I think Salem is a good option. After he missed round 10 due to injury, he had back to back poor scores of 64 and 59. Besides those 2 blemishes, he only has 1 score below 75 all year (round 1 he scored 66) and has only 3 scores below 90. He has also shown he can go big with a 119, 112 and 141 this year.

Nick Haynes

Is still a value pick in defence at 556k and a breakeven of 43. My concern with Haynes however is Lachie Ash is back in the side. Haynes did score his 107 with Ash in the side, but the last 2 weeks has had more +6’s with no Ash. Also, Sam Taylor is back next week. In saying that, I still think Haynes is a great option to bring in but just something to consider I think.

 

Adelaide vs Brisbane @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, cloudy with light rain expected throughout (73% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Billy Frampton, Nick Murray, Luke Pedlar (Debut)

OUT

Darcy Fogarty (Omitted), Will Hamill (Omitted), Shane McAdam (Omitted), Andrew McPherson (Medi-Sub)

Brisbane

IN

Jarrod Berry, Grant Birchall

OUT

James Madden (Injured), Rhys Mathieson (Medi-Sub), Jason Prior (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Rory Laird

Looks like Sloane will be staying in, which I think helps keep Lairdy off of the no.1 option to tag. I think he should also be really good this week, like he is pretty much every week.

Luke Pedlar

Making his debut for the Crows this week. As Crows fan, I am excited to see what Pedlar can bring to the table. As a fantasy option however, priced at 250k, unless we see an 80+ score or something from him, I don’t think he is an option.

Lachie Neale

Will be interesting to see if he stays in the lineup, but I suspect he will be a late out. If he plays, I think you can hold, but I would not be trading him in at all. Keep an eye out for final teams an hour before the first bounce.

Fremantle vs Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 5°C, partly cloudy with showers later in the night (66% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Nat Fyfe

OUT

Mitch Crowden (Medi-Sub), Matt Taberner (Injured)

Carlton

IN

Levi Casboult, Tom Williamson

OUT

Sam Docherty (Injured), Marc Murphy (Injured), Zac Williams (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Nat Fyfe

Back in the lineup, but I don’t think he will be an option for us. Someone still to keep an eye on, especially as we can pick him as a forward. But with that shoulder injury, too many question marks.

Nic Newman

Really nice option to bring in this week. Priced in the same area as Ridley and Haynes, I personally would prefer Newman. Docherty out for the rest of the year means Newman is the main guy back there, and I think he has shown he has a bigger ceiling than Ridley and Haynes.

Matt Kennedy

If you want a left field option from De Goey and Stringer, how about Matt Kennedy? 110 and 93 in his last 2 and playing essentially full time mid. My concerns, 1) what is his job security like? and 2) injury history. I think he can be a great option, and maybe if we see another good game from him this week, could be even more on the radar.

 

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 6°C, partly cloudy with light rain expected later in the night (72% chance of rain) ***ROOF WILL BE OPEN DUE TO COVID PROTOCOLS PLACED IN MELBOURNE***

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Damon Greaves, Conor Nash

OUT

Will Day (Injured), Denver Grainger-Barras (Injured), Chad Winged (Injured)

Port Adelaide

IN

Riley Bonner

OUT

Martin Frederick (Omitted), Dylan Williams (Omitted

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Has gone bananas since his poor effort against the Suns just before their bye. 125, 134 and 139 in his last 3 and really looking like his piggish self again. He is also starting to get out of most peoples price range, so if you can jump on, I think it is a great option. He also has a great fantasy finals schedule, with Adelaide, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs (a bit tougher but he is the Pig) and Richmond.

Shaun Burgoyne

Not fantasy related, but big shout out to Shaun Burgoyne who plays his 400th game this week, and it is fitting he plays it against his former side. He will only be the player in AFL/VFL history to achieve this milestone, with Brent Harvey, Michael Tuck, Kevin Bartlett, and Dustin Fletcher as the other members of this exclusive club.

Dan Houston

Still an underpriced option to bring in at 605k, but starting to get up in price now. 4 good scores in a row now and has a decent run for the rest of the year.

 

Sydney vs West Coast @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, showers expected throughout the day (64% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Haydne McLean, Colin O’Riordan, Callum Sinclair, Sam Wicks

OUT

Kaiden Brand (Omitted)

West Coast

IN

Luke Foley, Jamaine Jones, Zac Langdon, Nathan Vardy, Alex Witherden

OUT

Jackson Nelson (Omitted), Liam Ryan (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Shannon Hurn

Has been great this year, and 3 tons in a row has meant he has shot up in price. I think he is still risky with a potential injury that could pop up any moment, I probably think the boat has sailed. I would rather Salem (1k cheaper), Dangerfield (same price) and you could even save more money by going a Ridley, Newman or Haynes instead.

Andrew Gaff

Can we see a 100+ score? Something other than a 70, or anything under 100 for that matter. I love Gaff, but it has been a not very enjoyable rollercoaster this year. Started the year off poorly, then looked to have responded but now 5 games under 100. Has a great 4 weeks after this week so he will be underpriced, but can you trust him?

Luke Shuey/Tim Kelly/Elliot Yeo

As mentioned above, after the Sydney matchup this week, West Coast’s next 4 games are really nice, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda and Collingwood. All 3 could be options, and I especially like Tim Kelly out of the 3 with a breakeven of 154 due to his injury affected 33 in round 11 and putrid score of 36 last week. Before his injury affected game, he was 699k. Now he will most likely be priced around 570k or under next week, and if we see something good, I think he is better than a 570k priced player and could average 100 for the rest of the year.

Brad Sheppard

One of the many underpriced defender options at the moment, mainly due to his score of 6 in round 12 where he was subbed out early with concussion. At 493k and a breakeven of 79, it is definitely a smart play to have a look this week. If we see something, and you don’t have a lot of cash, I think it is a viable play, especially with their nice run of games coming up.

 

Collingwood vs St Kilda @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, occasional light rain (73% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Jordan De Goey, Max Lynch, Finlay Macrae, Trey Ruscoe

OUT

Beau McCreery (Injured)

St Kilda

IN

Jack Billings, Paul Hunter, Dean Kent, Jack Lonie

OUT

Nick Coffield

 

Players to Watch

Jordan De Goey

De Goat is back! From suspension and fantasy form. Last 3 scores of 109, 78 and 106 and playing a lot more midfield time with Elliot back in the side, which is what we wanted to see to start the year. I think this can continue and with a breakeven of 34, will rise in price over the next few weeks and could be a nice stepping stone to a premium, but based on his last 3 scores, COULD be a keeper. Let’s hope De Goat is here to stay.

Brodie Grundy

You need the Ruck Pig in your team, simple as. The gap between Gawn and Grundy and the rest of the rucks is massive. Returned last week for a casual 118 (along with the new haircut) and looked like is normal self. Only went down 7k last week, so he isn’t getting much cheaper so if you can bring him in, do it.

Taylor Adams

Nice return for Adams last week with a 116. Priced at 723k, he is underpriced. I think all of us though are worried about the injury history. He has a breakeven of 108 so you can watch him this week, but he isn’t likely to be getting any cheaper than he is now.

 

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, occasional light rain (73% chance of rain) ***ROOF WILL BE OPEN DUE TO COVID PROTOCOLS PLACED IN MELBOURNE***

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Patrick Lipinski, Josh Schache, Jordon Sweet, Lewis Young

OUT

Ryan Gardner (Injured)

North Melbourne

IN

Tom Campbell, Eddie Ford (Debut), Kyron Hayden, Jared Polec, Bailey Scott

OUT

Atu Bosenavulagi (Medi-Sub), Lachie Young (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Marcus Bontempelli

The Bont has been unreal this season. He has taken his game to a whole new level this year. Hasn’t gone under 100 in his last 10, and in his last 5, his lowest score is 120! What a gun!

Riley Garcia

Interesting option to bring in as a bench player only. After he was concussed in first game, he missed just the 2 games, then came back into the team last week with a 38 so not a great score. The thing I like about him is he is still 170k and his job security might be alright if he holds his spot considering he essentially came straight back in. And we don’t have a lot of rookie options to bring in.

My Trades

Hind -> Newman

Poulter -> De Goey/Stringer

I am trading Hind as he has a huge breakeven of 121, and bringing in Newman as an underpriced option in defence. Has shown in the past he can score well, and 111 in 3 quarters as the medi-sub is not bad. To go along with that, Docherty looks to be out for the year so Newman is the main guy back there now, and Williams is also out this week. Then I am upgrading Poulter on field to one of De Goey or Stringer. I haven’t made my mind up yet on that, but I am slightly leaning towards De Goey out of the 2. I have thought of Kennedy as well but I think De Goey and Stringer are better options with better job security. Something that may change that thinking is if Foley is named for the Eagles. Because there aren’t many downgrade options, getting Foley and hoping he can hold his spot for a couple of weeks could be a play, especially to get some cash to upgrade my final couple of rookies on the field.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 16!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

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