Hey everyone and welcome back to footy! (For now at least!?!)
I had been waiting for a bit of certainty before I wrote to you all this week and at the time of writing we now know that at least round 1 is going to happen! All I can do is just suggest that we prepare for the season to continue ahead albeit in a reduced capacity and see what happens from week to week. So today will be a little shorter because I simply don’t know what to tell you all as all the nuts and bolts haven’t been worked out yet! Anyway, enough of this, on with the season!!
It is an absolute pleasure to be back with you all again for Season 2020 and hopefully whatever we get out of it is going to be great. Rookie crisis is about all I have heard in the last few weeks and I have been a subscriber to that theory too. But, hopefully tonight we get team lists chock-a-block full of them (and the cheap ones too!).
Richmond v Carlton Tonight
All we need to know tonight is that we need to have all of these guys locked into place as they will be locked out from that first bounce of the season. After that you have a full 24 hours until lockout. This mean you can be tinkering with your team as Dusty and Crippa rack up the possessions (and importantly points).
If you are going to use the Captain Loophole I am sure that you are all over Calvin’s Captains article from Tuesday. For those of you that are new to the game and new to the Loophole, make sure you read Calvin’s article at least twice so that you know exactly what it means and how to do it. The one piece of advice that I have for this year is to be careful. Many people are selecting Darcy Cameron as their ruck bench and if he is named tonight to play then you could find yourself in a bit of a bind for those weeks that you want to use Grundy as your loophole VC captain.
If you do take a VC tonight that does a great job then you can decide from there if you want to risk it and take a non playing bench player to use the VC score. If they let you down you may want to look at taking a full compliment of playing bench guys into your season.
So what about the rookies?
Well I think what we figured out in a recent podcast from The Traders is that there are a lot of rookies out there if they get named. You may need to look a bit more left field. What has me worried is that there weren’t too many big performances in the Marsh Cup. But in the past we have seen bolters come along at the start of the season. We already have word that Tom Green from the Giants will be a starter and he will be locked into a heap of sides. Tyler Brown and Sam Sturt have also been confirmed debutants.
As always, don’t just pick a guy playing tonight because he is named, that goes for the weekend too. If they haven’t been on your radar already then there is probably a good reason for it, isn’t that right Relton?
If we do get it wrong on a rookie don’t panic about it. If there is something that we could take from the previous winners and that is that we don’t all get it perfect in round 1. If you miss one of the early rookies, don’t worry about it, just take it on the chin and make a corrective trade as early as you can. This is particularly important in Supercoach and RDT where the price changes don’t take place after one round.
For the final word on rookies make sure you check out Fry’s awesome rookie article from earlier in the week. The guy is a gun and knows his stuff about the cheap kids.
Leagues
As in the past the Leagues normally get sorted during the weekend of the first round. Now I have no idea at the moment what is going to happen but I would suggest that you get your leagues filled by Saturday night at the very latest for those that don’t play round 1. With the 17 round season we can basically expect there to be no bye rounds and there to be four weeks of finals. So based on that you probably won’t play everyone in your league once (there goes an article I wrote on how to win your league down the drain).
Cash Generation
This is going to be particularly difficult in a shortened season. So it is going to be super important this year to pick guys that are going to play regularly. This may mean that you are taking players that are going to cost a bit more than you would like to spend but game time and scoring are going to be the key. Counter intuitively though you may not want to take the more expensive guys because they have less room to grow in terms of making you money to upgrade the rest of your team. And remember you don’t have a full season to generate that cash to finish off your side. You only have 13 weeks before Fantasy Finals (assuming finals will still be 4 weeks).
Rule Changes
At the time I am writing this I don’t know all the rule changes, but I do know that Supercoach will retain the 30 trade limit over 17 weeks, so basically there are only two weeks you can’t trade if you use your two each week. With no official bye rounds there won’t be any best 18 weeks so we don’t have to worry about that this year (there goes that article I wrote on bye strategy down the toilet (with no paper though, can’t spare any of that )). There have been rumours about price changes earlier but I haven’t (at this point) seen any thing official. RDT tends to be the same as SC so let’s assume that is the case there too.
I am sure that Warnie, Cal and Roy will bring us all the info we need on AF and any changes there. Just keep an eye on the socials of all the different games you play as from what I have seen so far they are all giving as much info as they can as soon as they are able to.
While we have these Thursday night games starting a round I will try and come to you on the Thursday morning and I will provide you as much clarity and info as I have. But I think that things will get fairly erratic as we move forward so I will put something up at the times each week that I think is most appropriate and will help you the most.
Let me know in the comments of some of the things you would like me to try and focus on this year in the Scramble and I will do my very best.
Here are a couple of leagues to leave you with. Please join ONE only and please don’t join if you are already in my Twitter league. If I see you in two or more I will kick one of your entries out (and maybe all the leagues you join if I am feeling particularly nasty).
Dunny’s Friday Scramblers: 4NJUPXT4
Scrambling with Dunny: V9A4TT7Y
RDT – DTTalk Dunny: 718039
Supercoach – DTTalk Dunny: 676745
All the best for the season everyone and Let’s hope we get to see some good footy (and hopefully be allowed to be at the ground sooner rather than later). Stay safe everyone and look after each other and don’t hassle those poor supermarket workers too much, they are only doing their job and a lot of them are only kids. Catch you all next week (with a bit of luck!)
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Podcasts
Deck of Dream Team
Lance Franklin – Deck of DT 2021
The Season
2021 AFL Premiership Favourites
Deck of Dream Team
Braydon Preuss – Deck of DT 2021
Deck of Dream Team
Jackson Hately – Deck of DT 2021
My Team
My Team 2021: Version 1.0
Deck of Dream Team
Jackson Hately – Deck of DT 2021
Deck of Dream Team
Taylor Adams – Deck of DT 2021
Deck of Dream Team
Dyson Heppell – Deck of DT 2021
Doug
March 19, 2020 at 7:02 am
With Steven out, it’s meant a bit of a shuffle up FWD for me, so either looking at Gun+Rook or Midprice Mayhem with 1.2m to spend..
1. Whitfield and C.Jones (or any player under 358k)
2. Combination of Ceglar, Greenwood, Parish, Petracca, Wingard etc
Dunny
March 19, 2020 at 9:02 am
Out of that I don’t trust C Jones, just his job security worries me.
I think I would go Greenwood and Petracca if I had to pick from that lot.
cody
March 19, 2020 at 2:41 pm
another 320k price option is lachie schultz from the dockers
Tom
March 19, 2020 at 9:11 am
Absolutely stoked we got a game to watch!! Join my DT Talk exclusive league fellas. League Code: SAWCACTY
Brodie
March 19, 2020 at 9:42 am
What is happening with shortened quarters? Does that mean players break evens will stay the same or will they be reduced by 20% (4 x 4 mins less each qtr) = 20% less game time.
Dallas
March 19, 2020 at 1:54 pm
Breakevens work proportional to total points scored for the round. If your players ppm and tog% don’t change then their breakeven will stay consistent on a proportional basis (i.e. their price fluctuation will be the same as if there was no change to quarters). If those things change due to the different format then their breakeven will be impacted (e.g. from how their interchange and resting is impacted, or with less time for a player to rack up cheap 6’s across the backline in a blowout).
Tim B
March 19, 2020 at 2:19 pm
Extended benches is a bigger threat to player value. Basically each week the total value of all players remains the same and the magic number and BEs are determined after each round to reflect that. With more players (and more cheap players), the higher priced players will have to fall by more to balance out the additional cheap players who are playing.
This also explains why shorter quarters won’t matter so much. Similar price drops from more expensive players to balance out the usual number of cheap players. However, players who spend all their time on ground (e.g., Scully) may be affected if they spend a proportionally more similar amount of time on ground to other players. Players who’s time is limited due to fitness may benefit as the %TOG will be less affected than normal (not sure of any examples).
tim
March 19, 2020 at 10:00 am
i am wanting to hear about breakevens too as that will change the mix of the team definitely
gosnellsitf
March 19, 2020 at 10:09 am
What time will the teams be announced tonight?
Tim B
March 19, 2020 at 2:26 pm
It’s been 6:25pm in the past.
llizardofoz
March 19, 2020 at 4:40 pm
Yeah but that’s close to game time.
Ethan Rumball
March 19, 2020 at 10:25 am
Please fill my fantasy league!
CE4ZEJ7T
Cheers
Jack
March 19, 2020 at 11:21 am
Enter my RDT league. Experts only. Code: 585628
James
March 19, 2020 at 11:32 am
Why is there such a dramatic increase in % ownership figures overnight? E.g Liam Jones had an ownership of 0% last night, now he has 5%. Dusty was at 36% now 56%. Even rookies are the same.
Dallas
March 19, 2020 at 1:55 pm
Because the season is confirmed and starting today? Probably just a heap of teams that weren’t completed.
Toad
March 19, 2020 at 4:57 pm
Done! Join mine 284512 :)
Harry
March 19, 2020 at 11:37 am
Is anyone else only able to set 1 player as an emergency?
Harry
March 19, 2020 at 12:01 pm
Seemed to have fixed it. I was able to set 4 emergencies through the app and then log out and back in again on my desktop
AJ
March 19, 2020 at 11:45 am
With all the chatter about a 153game season which is not necessarily divided into traditional ’rounds’ .. how the hell are captains and trade windows going to work ? .. as has been mentioned above, how is someone like brodie grundy gonna have even the lightest chance maintain his value with 16minutes (4x4minues) shaved off the game ? are our teams all just gonna hemorrhage cash or there some viability in picking even more players so underpriced they’ll generate/hold value regardless . So many questions. I dont envy the decision makers today.
Will
March 19, 2020 at 11:54 am
agreed – the integrity of this fantasy competition (dont forget there’s major prizes on the line here) is totally out the window if game time is reduced by 20%. They need to either simply multiply every score by 1.2 and leave everything else as is, or they need to rework break evens.
Will
March 19, 2020 at 3:44 pm
OK Drama avoided – see AFL fantasy on twitter
“Breakevens are only ever a guide as they are dictated by the total points scored in any given round. With fewer points scored, the breakeven figure will drop.
Brodie Grundy’s breakeven of 122 is based on a full game. The equivalent now is approx. 98.”
Will
March 19, 2020 at 11:52 am
Izak Rankine is out for R1 *sigh*
Fooz
March 19, 2020 at 11:58 am
Rankine Out, Sturt In… with buggerall confidence.
Waiting on Beetle Williams, Xerri-on-top, and other rookies with at least a glimmer of JS.
Will
March 19, 2020 at 12:06 pm
Yeah I just made the same move, then I see Cavarra will debut for the dogs… two options to replace Rankine
How are ya
March 19, 2020 at 12:11 pm
Haynes or greenwood? Brander switches into either the forward line or backline on field.
Jag67
March 19, 2020 at 1:12 pm
If the fixtures are going to be unpedictable this year, I hope all fantasy formats can keep up with the changes.
Doug
March 19, 2020 at 2:28 pm
I’m a bit torn on Ainsworth? Averaged 93 from 68.5% game time, but to get him at F5 I need to find a 189k D6..
That or opt for someone like Ash down back at D6, then best I can do at F5 is Ben Long, who looked good in the 2nd Marsh game, but that’s 1 decent game in 3 years..
HAWKA
March 19, 2020 at 2:38 pm
Do you think Jayden Short is a value option who has scoring potential giving the abensce of houli?
cheers lads and goodluck
Joe
March 19, 2020 at 2:49 pm
I wouldn’t pick Jayden Short probably bit to risky HWAKA
Joe
March 19, 2020 at 2:50 pm
What do u guys think of Nic Nat with shorter game time
SouvLarkey
March 19, 2020 at 3:10 pm
Grundy and BZT or Jacobs and Crisp?
Nathan
March 19, 2020 at 4:48 pm
I have a feeling on their own Jacobs and Crisp would score slightly more (BZT is more a key-position type player). But I would probably take Grundy + BZT all the same simply because Grundy is an obvious captain option each week and BZT will have a good increase in price.
J
March 19, 2020 at 4:27 pm
hey guys, I’m looking to fill my league – silly me left it on private till now.
Invitation: RT7UPW4W
Toad
March 19, 2020 at 4:54 pm
Done!
Toad
March 19, 2020 at 4:51 pm
Looking to fill a RDT league 284512 – Cheers!!
Charlie
March 19, 2020 at 4:54 pm
Wingard or Brayshaw in the forward line? Can’t decide!!
Toad
March 19, 2020 at 4:55 pm
Bray
Davo
March 19, 2020 at 5:24 pm
+1 Brayshaw
Ollies Otters
March 19, 2020 at 5:12 pm
Viney and petrecca or cripps and Schulz??
Davo
March 19, 2020 at 5:27 pm
I’ve got $618K to fill my M5. Who do I take?
1 – Viney
2 – Petracca via DPP + $60K
3 – Ward + $80K
4 – Anderson + $350K to use elsewhere
Davo
March 19, 2020 at 5:31 pm
Sorry, make #3 Hately + $160K
Mad Fish
March 19, 2020 at 7:09 pm
Cerra or Short?
Otto Newstead
March 19, 2020 at 7:28 pm
Cavarra Davis or gardener?
Dardy McCarthy
March 20, 2020 at 1:28 am
Jelwood and Curtis Taylor on field – Or – Greenwood and Noah Anderson
Jack
March 20, 2020 at 1:30 am
Is Lukosius too POD chasing?? Can’t decide!
Jamie Pearce
March 20, 2020 at 5:57 am
Afl Fantasy Leauge code SYHNC67K
J
March 20, 2020 at 4:38 pm
Guys, best player for under 465K?
I already have the more popular high priced rookies