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The Friday Scramble

The Thursday Scramble: Round 2

Footy is back, and with it comes a different way to play Fantasy! Let’s Scramble!!

I was starting to wonder if we were ever going to get to Round 2 but finally it is here.  How boring has it been on weekends with no footy to watch! No players to yell at, no scores to review. But thankfully that is all over now as we are only a few hours away (depending on when you read this) from the first bounce for round 2. But with a new start to the season we have a heap more issues to deal with. So I will have a look at a few of them here as we launch into the rest of the season (hopefully).

New Strategy for a New Type of Season

With our new short season we now have some new strategies that we need to take into account. We don’t have time to wait for the rookies to get to an absolute maxed out value point and similarly we may not be able to wait for a premium to drop right down to their basement price.

Normally we are looking to have a near ‘completed’ team at the end of the bye rounds which is usually about round 14-15. Well with only 17 rounds this year we can’t wait that long. So here are a few thoughts on what I think we should be looking at doing.

  • Stepping stones are a strategy we need to consider this year. Given we may not be able to wait for a fully mature cash cow, particularly as we move through the season, we will need to jump off a rookie to a mid pricer that is about to rise in value to boost that cash generation. This means that we not only have to be across the rookies on the rise but everyone else as well.
  • Jumping off a plummeting Premium. This is a big no-no in a normal season, but in 2020 this can give you an opportunity. Don’t get me wrong, the risks are huge but the rewards can be big too. There is one of these situations right now. Many people are looking at trading Bont out for Viney to stop any leakage of cash and then pick up some cash from Viney as he is on the up. This is certainly a valid strategy but just beware that trading out a falling premium can come back to bite you hard and fast!
  • Aggressive trading in all forms of the game. Once again this is a function of the shortened season. No time to sit back and wait, it is probably riskier to do that this season. Often we would say that you should hold your premiums and wait for the right time to trade, but as I have mentioned above we can’t do that. You need to be the first to get to that best team possible.

Don’t Forget the Basics

Just because it is a bit of a different season don’t forget the basics. We still need to look for value in all our selections and we need to look for those guys that are going to score well. I am sure that you have all been listening to the Traders when they have been discussing who this game suits and who it doesn’t.

Having a solid squad is just as important this year as it is every year, but with the short season and the impact this will have on cash generation you will probably find that your ‘finalised’ team won’t be full of premiums and the absolute best in every position like it is in a normal season. You may have some guys in there that are a bit more mid priced or players you wouldn’t normally look at. This is ok, this season is different for everyone and it might be the right time for you to try some different strategies!

As always, make sure you properly evaluate your trades.  If you are going to do a Gawn down to a Ceglar or a Naismith, make sure you use that money you have made to upgrade someone else to get you more points than what you are likely to lose by trading out Gawn. This is important in every season but even more important this year with less time for our trades to pay off for us.

Cal’s Scale of Hardness is just as important this year as ever. Given we only know the next four rounds, you can’t trade to try and bring in players that have the Gold Coast in the final round. But it does allow us to do some trading to maximise these few weeks. For example we know that Gawn has a great run over the next four weeks and we know that Danger plays 3 of his four games at GMHBA stadium where he usually goes massive.  Look to exploit these fixture matchups as best you can.

Why Patrick Dangerfield can play to mid-30s, says Mark Ricciuto ...

Scoring Differences in 2020

Supercoach v Fantasy

We all know that the scoring systems are different between Supercoach and the other forms of the game. So whilst we are going to see Fantasy games move down given the reduced minutes and hence less opportunity to get hands on the footy, we won’t see that in Supercoach. Supercoach has the formula that sees every single game have 3,300 points on offer and this hasn’t changed. While players still earn points for each stat they get and the impact that it has on the game, that impact (or scaling as it is often called) will be larger this year due to the reduced minutes and reduced (possibly) possessions.

What I think this will do in Supercoach is see a bigger gap between the best and the worst scorers on the ground. Not everyone is going to have an impact and it means that some of our rookie scores are going to be lower than what we would be used to. But we should still see the big scores from our guns, so whilst Calvin refers to his BCV and ACV scores for Fantasy, this won’t be as pronounced for Supercoach as the premiums still have the ability to get a big score thanks to their impact over fewer overall possessions.

Access to the Midfield points

The other thing that I think we will see and it will once again boost the premiums and possibly hurt the ‘fringe premium’ and rookie players is that the premiums will spend more time on the ground as they don’t need as much rest and this will mean that those guys that ‘fill in’ in the midfield while guys like Titch, Danger and Dusty are either resting up forward or on the bench won’t get as much of a look in at the ball.

Things To Remember

  • Everyone is in the same boat (well almost). All of us are going to have challenges this week in making our trades as half of us will have rookies missing everywhere!
  • Be careful trading after the game starts tonight.  In SC and in RDT the trades will no longer be reversible after the first bounce.
  • You have extra trades to use, don’t waste them, use them. We have those trades for a reason and in AF they don’t get banked so use them.
  • One week doesn’t make a Fantasy Stud. We have all been burnt before so just be careful before jumping on that guy that had a huge first week.

It is great to be back and I can’t wait to watch some footy again tonight. Certainly beats the other stuff that is on TV at the moment! More importantly it has been great to see the Fantasy Footy community jump back into action. Sorry if I haven’t jumped onto the sort of strategy you were after this week, but shoot me a tweet and let me know what sort of things you want for next Thursday. I’m happy to provide whatever you guys are after. Next week I will try and re-introduce the questions segment, just been a bit busy this week.

Thanks for reading and I will catch you all again next week!

A passionate Port Adelaide Fan who simply loves footy! That is how I would describe myself. Catch my weekly article "The Friday Scramble" with all the last minute things to think about for the weekend Follow: @pkd73.

35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Trent

    June 11, 2020 at 6:13 am

    Thoughts on

    Whitfield to Dusty
    Cumming to Noble
    Green to Bennell?

    • Avatar

      David C

      June 11, 2020 at 8:17 am

      Solid trades.

    • Avatar

      Matthew Mullens

      June 11, 2020 at 6:27 pm

      I haven’t been paying much attention over the COVID break, so maybe I’m out of touch. But wouldn’t Whits be likely to outscore or at least match Dusty this season? Noble scored 64 last round, not exactly a must have. Green to Bennell is a 50/50 – unless Green is dropped obviously. Sorry if I’m missing something but there must be better trades out there in my view.

  2. Avatar

    Josh K

    June 11, 2020 at 6:46 am

    What would you do?

    1. Merret to Viney
    Whitefield to patracca
    Tom Green to Ward

    2. Whitfield to Baliey Smith
    Cavarra to Acres
    Tom Green to H Bennell

    1 or 2

    • Avatar

      MiniMonk

      June 11, 2020 at 7:29 am

      1 gets better players, so probably 1.

      • Avatar

        M8

        June 11, 2020 at 8:33 am

        I prefer 1

  3. Avatar

    MiniMonk

    June 11, 2020 at 7:31 am

    Thoughts on:
    Cumming/Roberton -> Pittonet via DPP
    Green -> Bennell
    Cavarra -> McHenry via DP

  4. Avatar

    Jag67

    June 11, 2020 at 7:51 am

    Thanks Dunny, I’d sort of lost the bug to continue this year, but after reading some of these DTTalk articles….I’m back.
    PS: Go the CROWS for this weekend.

    • Avatar

      PowerAde

      June 11, 2020 at 5:07 pm

      pfft, crows are the new suns…

  5. Avatar

    M8

    June 11, 2020 at 8:32 am

    Great to be back!
    Thoughts on trades or other options?
    DEF: Crisp, Smith, Houston, Docherty, Roberton, Brander (Cumming, Starcevich)
    MID: Macrae, Cogs, Cripps, Mitchell, McGrath, Rowell, Green, Pickett (Brown, McInerney)
    RUCK: Jacobs, Naismith (Williams)
    FWD: Whitfield, Petracca, Greenwood, B.Smith, Brayshaw, Taylor (Cavarra, King)
    UTL: Budarick
    Cash: $121k
    Option A:
    Cumming (via Williams) to Cameron/Pittonet
    Greenwood to Viney and
    Green to Rivers putting brander on field in fwds

    Option B:
    Whitfield to Martin
    Green to Ward
    Cumming to Cameron

    Option C:
    Cumming to Cameron
    Greenwood to Bewley
    Green to Viney

  6. Avatar

    Mad Fish

    June 11, 2020 at 8:48 am

    Which rookie to jump on?
    – Bennell
    – McHenry
    – Rivers
    – Cameron

  7. Avatar

    Jacko

    June 11, 2020 at 10:11 am

    Viney or Ward ?? – Ward leaves me with 150k in the bank

    • Avatar

      Bjorn Hevroy

      June 12, 2020 at 1:11 pm

      I’d go Viney – give Ward a week to see how he goes

  8. Avatar

    anth80

    June 11, 2020 at 10:39 am

    Dunny,
    Great read.

    With the 3 trades this week is it better to use them for non playing rookies. Being a shortened season cash gen will be beneficial more then ever now. Or use the 3 trades to trade out Merrett and Whitfield and upgrade a Green type player or Taylor??
    I’m confused as to what to do. We need as many rookies off the ground ASAP but we also need rookies playing to allow us that cash.

    • Avatar

      llizardofoz

      June 11, 2020 at 11:56 am

      Yeah nice write up.
      With the reduced scoring there is only 198 pts between 1st and # 2780.after RD1.

  9. Avatar

    JG

    June 11, 2020 at 12:23 pm

    Few ways i could go – get rid of non playing rookies for playing rookies, or take a punt on trading Whitfield down to upgrade elsewhere.
    Green -> Bennell / B. Williams -> Cameron / Cavarra -> {TBA playing rookie}
    OR
    Whitfield -> Wingard / Cavarra -> B. Smith / Green -> {TBA playing rookie}
    OR
    Whitfield -> Wingard / Cavarra -> Bewley / Green -> Bennell

  10. Avatar

    thebopper58

    June 11, 2020 at 12:45 pm

    Welcome back Dunny

    BZT suspended for breach of Covid protocols – there goes my 1st trade
    Interesting if same rule applies to Ollie Wines who did similar thing?????
    Also interested in your thoughts in regards to allocated trades who got it right???
    AFL Fantasy or Supercoach straight up 5 or RDT 4 trades

    Best of luck for the shorten season!!!

  11. Avatar

    Marcus

    June 11, 2020 at 12:56 pm

    For me I’ll be playing the BE game for a while then try coming home like a Steam Train.

    Out N Anderson In N McHenry
    Out T Green IN H Bennell
    Out Cavarra In Townsend

  12. Avatar

    Marcus

    June 11, 2020 at 3:48 pm

    As the boys have said b4 you pick a team for Rnd one for a reason so why go making CHANGES, unless you have injury concerns. Even though my Ranking is up up n away with the fairy’s

    • Avatar

      Squid

      June 11, 2020 at 5:12 pm

      I agree, if you are making changes just for the sake of it you’re doing it wrong, that said in AF if you don’t use em you lose em and we are going to need cash, there are a few theories on how to do this best but one thing I am certain of is you must use those trades to generate cash, holding this week in SC will put you in the same position as fantasy.
      For me Viney is in pending cows selected, not a knee jerk decision either, had him all preseason then chickened out, can’t afford to have donuts this year and can’t sit on premos who are losing cash if avoidable.
      It is interesting times for sure, but most of all mainly just glad footy is back.

  13. Avatar

    llizardofoz

    June 11, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    3 trades in AF turned out to be just enough.
    No mucking around with genuine selections only rookie adjustments.

  14. Avatar

    Juddy B

    June 11, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    I think I’ve missed something… Why is everyone trading Whitfield? Just cos he had a shit round one??

    • Will

      Will

      June 12, 2020 at 9:54 am

      His adjusted (before corona) score was 85, so yeah, not really sure why all the panic. Sure its not a 190, but not bad considering the putrid overall round scores

      • Avatar

        Juddy B

        June 12, 2020 at 3:31 pm

        Sounds like a luxury trade to me so I might hold him for a couple more before chucking him in the bin. Way too much upside.

  15. Avatar

    Sammy

    June 12, 2020 at 6:50 am

    Best trades

    1. Merret to Viney
    Tom Green to Ward

    Or

    2. Tom Green to H Bennell
    Cavarra to Bewley?

    1 or 2

    • Will

      Will

      June 12, 2020 at 10:15 am

      not convinced on trading merrett yet, but the results of trade 1 are definitely better. I’m conservative, so I’d go option two, even if Bewley doesnt come good, he still has a low BE

    • Avatar

      Bjorn Hevroy

      June 12, 2020 at 1:30 pm

      If Cavarra to Bewley is to get Cavarra or King off the field then 2, but if you’ve got C.Taylor at D6 already I’d probably go 1

  16. Will

    Will

    June 12, 2020 at 10:00 am

    Brayshaw or Greenwood + Roberton
    to
    Townsend + Haynes
    ?

    • Avatar

      Shags

      June 12, 2020 at 12:44 pm

      Looks like the rookie carnage isnt as bad as I first thought, so might have a luxury trade.

      Who is the biggest priority to trade out?

      B.smith or Brayshaw?

      • Avatar

        Bjorn Hevroy

        June 12, 2020 at 1:16 pm

        Both apparently played through injuries so I’m gonna give them another go, but if it’s a luxury trade then B. Smith just due to breakeven. Obviously who you bring in could be deciding factor though

    • Avatar

      Shags

      June 12, 2020 at 12:47 pm

      Trade Brayshaw and give Greenwood another crack.

  17. Avatar

    Bjorn Hevroy

    June 12, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    Probably cull Brayshaw ahead of Greenwood

    • Will

      Will

      June 12, 2020 at 3:11 pm

      I’ve decided to give Andy Brayshaw one more week to not be a spud, and to see if townsend can back it up again. It’ll still be a cash grab next week.

  18. Avatar

    Bjorn Hevroy

    June 12, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    T.Green & Naismith out for

    Bennell & Gawn
    or
    Ward & Naitanui

  19. Avatar

    Wizz

    June 12, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    G’day all,
    In a predicament..
    – Naismith to Cameron (last night)

    – T.Green to McHenry (would leave me with 246k).. Or
    – T. Green to Bennel (would leave me with 192k)

    Then, who the hell do I trade D. Roberton for?.. I’d have between 500k and 563k depending on who I got above.
    Hope that makes sense
    Thanks in advance.

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