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Inside the Numbers

Inside the Numbers – Rd. 20

Pete goes inside the fantasy numbers for this week.

With only 3 weeks remaining in the 2019 H&A season the focus on trades has narrowed down to just 6 decisions, having decent bench cover at this stage of the season could have a decent pay-off but finding 1 or 2 unique options with decent match-ups  should also be a priority.

Last week captain selections were critical, those that stuck with tried & tested premiums were rewarded over those that attempted to find a unique option. Maybe it’s time to lock in 1 or 2 options and let your opposition try to find that narrow point of difference.

Good luck for Round 21.

Article by @aflratingsPete

PLAYER TRENDS

Adelaide

Brodie Smith has scored 100pts or more in his last 3 games, he has averaged 112.0pts over the same period (Season Ave: 85.8pts).

Brisbane

Mitch Robinson has scored 100pts or more in 3 of his last 4 games, he has averaged 98.3pts over the same period (Season Ave: 92.3pts).

Carlton

Marc Murphy has scored 100pts or more in 4 of his last 6 games, he has averaged 106.2pts over the same period.

Collingwood

Adam Treloar has scored 100pts or more in his last 8 games, he has averaged 121.8pts over the same period (Season Ave: 115.0pts).

Essendon

Zach Merrett has scored 100pts or more in 3 of his last 4 games, he has averaged 113.5pts over the same period (Season Ave: 106.5pts).

Fremantle

Michael Walters scored 123pts in Round 20, it was his first score over 100pts since Round 13.

Geelong

Tim Kelly has averaged 84.2pts from his last 5 games, he averaged 103.2pts between Rounds 1-15.

Gold Coast

Jack Lukosius scored a career high 99pts in Round 20, he has scored 80pts or fewer in all other (94.4%) games in his first season.

GWS Giants

Toby Greene scored a season high 146pts in Round 20, he has averaged 132.8pts from his last 4 games (Season Ave: 95.3pts).

Hawthorn

James Sicily has averaged 69.0pts since the Hawthorn Round 12 Bye, he averaged 94.2pts between Rounds 1-11.

Melbourne

Clayton Oliver has scored 100pts or more in 6 of his last 7 games, he has averaged 105.4pts over the same period.

Nth Melbourne

Paul Ahern has averaged 84.0pts in his 2 games since returning to the team (Season Ave: 60.8pts).

Port Adelaide

Dan Houston scored a season high 123pts in Round 20, he has averaged 113.5pts from his last 2 games.

Richmond

Dion Prestia has scored 100pts or more in 7 of his last 8 games, he has scored 100pts or more in 57.9% of games this season (2018: 7.7%).

St Kilda

Jack Billings has scored 100pts or more in 6 of his last 8 games, he has scored 100pts or more in 52.6% of games this season (2018: 23.8%).

Sydney

Isaac Heeney has scored 100pts or more in 5 of his last 8 games, he has averaged 101.0pts over the same period.

West Coast

Elliot Yeo has scored 100pts or more in 4 of his last 7 games since the West Coast Bye, he has averaged 105.0pts over the same period.

Western Bulldogs

Jack Macrae has averaged 135.1pts since the Bulldogs Round 12 Bye, he has scored 120pts or more in 42.1% of games this season (2018: 52.6%).

FIVE TAKEAWAYS

1. Brisbane are 7-0 since Round 14, they have recorded more Disposals than their opponents in just 1 of those wins. The Lions have a -28.4 Disposal Differential over the same period (Rank 17).

2. GWS are averaging 1666.4pts per game this season (Rank 2), the Giants have the largest differential compared to the 2018 H&A season (+84.9pts). Melbourne the worst differential (-134.2pts).

3. Brodie Grundy scored 145pts in Round 20, he has scored 120pts or more in 52.6% of games this season (2018: 53.8%).

4. Patrick Cripps scored 75pts in Round 20, he has scored fewer than 100pts in 7 of his last 9 games. Cripps has averaged 86.6pts over the same period.

5. Since scoring 150pts in his Round 16 return, Tom Rockliff has averaged 94.0pts from his last 4 games (Season Ave: 106.7pts).

Warnie, Cal & Roy discuss these takeaways on the Traders Podcast (10:59).

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