Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 10

Note: Abbreviations used in this article include:

JS: Job Security – the perceived likelihood that a player will hold their spot in the side.

BE: Break Even – the estimated score required for the player to maintain their current price.

MBR’s: Multi Bye Rounds – the Rounds where the byes take place, between Rounds 11 and 13.

 

• Lazy Sundays

There was once a time, when I was yet to discover the world of Dream Team, that I participated in this fad called ‘Footy Tipping’. In my time as a tipster, I often fell victim to the phenomenon which haunted many before me – the Lazy Sunday. It usually occurs after you remark how well your tips are going on the Saturday Night, whether it’s because you sneak a roughie or you’re on track for a perfect week. Of course, your Sunday tips all go to crap, ruining your chance at the weekly prize (or whatever).

Round 10 was a classic week of Lazy Sundays, particularly the last game of the week, in which three of my Breakers participated in. And that doesn’t include Hargrave’s (42), Lake’s (49), or Rockliff’s  (85) below-par efforts earlier in the day. It means that a week that looked like delivering you 2300 left you crying in the corner, folded up in the foetal position, ruing the score that could have been.

Someone asked me what ‘par’ was this week. Given the huge scores at the top-end, and the highly variable totals from our Premiums players, it could have been boom or bust for any coach. Ultimately, the kind of week you had can be pretty much summed-up with the help of this flow-chart:

Hopefully you have the ability to answer ‘Yes’ to those initial questions; otherwise…. Join the club.

 

• Let’s Make a Record

Unless you were living under a rock, you may have noticed a few unusual things this week. There must have been something in the Powerade, because a few records were broken and made in Round 10. Let’s check out the Top 5, in reverse order:

Note: Most statistical data stretches back to 1974

5. Equal-Fourth Most Tackles in a Game (15)

This honour belongs to renowned tackler Jack Redden. The feisty on-baller had 15 tackles against the Eagles, which is a pleasing return to what he does best, given he averages 1 tackle per game less than he did last season. He earned at least 12 tackles in a game on five occasions last year, which indicates that this wasn’t just a fluke.

4. Most Goals in a Game since 2000 (13)

The last time a player kicked 13 or more goals was Scott Cummings against the Crows in 2000. The game has changed a hell of a lot since then, and I was doubtful anyone could reach these heights with the way footy is played these days. But Buddy, as he is so often, is the exception to the rule, and managed to put through 13 goals against the Roos this week. It is also the equal-11^th biggest haul since they started recording data in 1974.

3. Equal Most Hitouts by a Team in a Single Game (75)

The ruck duo of Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui troubles opponent every week, but now they’ve troubled the record books as well. The Eagles ruck pair was chiefly responsible for posting a combined 75 hitouts to equal a long standing record from the Bombers. And that was against South Melbourne, which gives you some idea of how long ago that was! Cox had 31 (of his 101DT) and NicNat had 41 (of his 71DT), which explains how they managed to post reasonable scores despite appearing to not accumulate much of the pill.

2. Equal Most Disposals in a Game (53)

The best player in the competition versus the best team in the competition is not the expected recipe for a truck-load of possessions, until you realise that Collingwood do not tag. Not even a freak like Gablett. The result was Gazza equalling the record most-disposals in game at 53, set by Greg Williams all the way back in 1989. It’s amazing that he could be allowed to do that in a game of modern football.

 1. Most Ever DT Points Scored in a Game (204)

Poor Brent Stanton, who held the record for just four weeks… Welcome to the podium, Buddy Franklin! 204 points mark the first time that any player has brought up the double-ton, and is by far the most by a pure forward since the Dream Team competition began. Just as no forward can influence a game like Buddy, no forward can score in DT like him.

 

• Clutch Calls

It’s deep into the NBA playoffs at the moment, and the one thing you have to admire about their product is the way that so many of the games go down to the wire. In basketball, there is one intangible that can be the difference between elimination and a championship: clutchness. It’s the ability to close out a game with big plays, the freakish knack for hitting every shot you take in the last quarter and the power to will the game in your favour.

You can be clutch in Dream Team, too. Did you hold onto an injured star, when everyone around you was running for the hills? Did you pass on a Cash Cow, who no-one else can ignore? If these calls fall in your favour, you’ve made a big jump on the majority of the DT fraternity. I thought we’d take this opportunity to evaluate some ‘clutch’ calls you could have made during the season so far:

Holding Ablett & Swan

One of the toughest things to do in DT is to hold an injured Premium. Having $500k+ sitting on your bench feels like sitting in fourth gear; you always feel like your team is never at its best. Which, of course, it isn’t. That’s why many coaches traded out Ablett during his knee-bruising saga, and why a bunch swapped out Swan and his sore hammy. Both look set to miss just the two games each, meaning the right call was to keep, hands down. Especially if you traded out Ablett to Swan or Murphy, or sideways traded Swan to Pendlebury (who is reportedly out this week with a crack in his tibia).

Trading in C. Delaney or Brennan over Spurr

A few weeks ago, we had the choice to downgrade Ellis (or Bugg) to one of these guys on the bubble. Spurr was the front-runner given his mature-age status and pre-season hype, whereas the other two were largely unknown quantities. Fast-forward to Round 10, and Spurr’s nowhere to be seen, while Brennan and Delaney have both held their spots and are even making a little cash on the side. While neither are great scorers, it’s a hell of a lot better than copping a 0 over two of the next three rounds.

Trading H-Mac after Round 7

When H-Mac first injured his knee, it was thrown about as a 1-2 week injury; no big deal. Accepted convention said to hold him (particularly if you had just got him in for Leuenberger, McEvoy or Mumford), especially with Stephenson’s timely return. But if, for whatever reason, you traded him out…. You’re winning, as H-Mac is out for another month at least. And even more so if you got on board the Maric Train, who was $8k cheaper back then. He’s averaged 120.7 since then, as well as shooting up $79k!

Made any clutch calls this season? Let me know in the comments!

 

• Makers and Breakers

It’s a tough call, but I have to award top spot this week to the one and only Gary Ablett. The Little Master scored a huge 186, second only to Buddy’s incredible 204. The deciding factor was the number of people relying on the pair as Captain – Gablett was crowned by 18.0% of DT coaches, while Buddy was backed in by just the 1.2%. Also contributing was the fact that a large chunk of coaches traded out Ablett in the knee-injury era and haven’t got him back in yet. Conversely, Buddy is the most selected player in the competition at 63.3% ownership.

Ablett’s monster score came courtesy of a stat-stuffing 53 disposals, 9 marks and 7 tackles. It just goes to show what someone of his quality can do without a tag… Buddy, on the other hand, earned his points through a massive 13 goals; many of which came included in the fabled +12 combos. Given the extreme nature of their performances, I think it’s unlikely that we’ll ever see such bell-curve destroying scores in the same round again.

As a DT community we’ve been getting so carried away with our fascination with the new-age DPP’s (I’m talking about Sidey, Beams, Martin, Robinson, etc.), that the original Mid/Fwd Gun has snuck under the radar. Chapman had 137 DT points in a BOG performance against the Giants, contributing in each of the disposal, mark, tackle and goal categories. That’s his second 130+ score on the trot – here’s to hoping you have another forward line upgrade slot free!

With most of our post-round analysis concerned with the Premium crowd, the mid-price players sometimes don’t get the kudos they deserve. Brad Ebert is certainly in the category. The former Eagle had 117 points this week, but it’s his highly-consistent form that sneaks him in the Makers. From a DT perspective, he’s exceeded all expectations, scoring at least 82 in every game this season whilst going at 107.1 points per game. In an AFL sense, he’s walked into a new club and ranked 3^rd in disposals, 1^st in tackles and 1^st in Champion Data ranking points. Great pick!

Faith. It’s easy to define but hard to embody, and for that reason, Aaron Hall rounds out the Makers. Many coaches traded him out after his mysterious absence from the Suns side, but he’s back! He scored 80 points in a flogging from the Pies, and surely will be retained for his effort next week. Basically, he’s back to save you a trade, a couple of donuts and to make you some cash as well – he went up $46k this week, with his BE of –22 indicating more on the way.

Even if Pendlebury didn’t personally wrong me (he was my Captain this week), I’m confident he would have earned this unwanted honour. 14.5 % of coaches handed him the big ‘C’ this week, which meant doubling 59 – you simply can’t come back from that. Yes, the knee injury wasn’t his fault, but wussing out at half time was.

Sidebottom defied all logic and faded badly to finish with just 68 against the hapless Suns. Whether he felt the pressure of Calvin’s #1 mantle, or he had a severe case of Bartelitis (taking the foot off the pedal against easy opposition), I don’t know. But surely there had to some explanation for his disappearing act.

Scott Thompson continued an alarming halt to his impressive form, backing up last week’s 85 with just the 65 points under the watchful eye of Crowley in Round 10. This is on the back of four-straight 120+ scores from the acclaimed accumulator. What does this mean? Is his form strong enough to consider him as a post-R11 upgrade option, or does this cast too much doubt?

Sorry Horsley. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt with one poor score, but two – no way. Especially when the latter is a paltry 38, and irrespective of whether it was vested or not. It does, however, confirm reports that the Horse has been ‘very, very sore’ lately, which is very, very worrying for his prospects in Round 11. Oh, and he actually went down in price this week! All that great early work for nothing…

Beau Waters rounds out the Breakers this week, and not for his poor score (79). Although, I wouldn’t have been angry with more than 28 points in the 2^nd half… No, it’s his pending suspension and the resulting extra donut or two that Waters owners will be swallowing. In a week which has already seen its fair share of injuries and similar disappointment, we didn’t need this too, Beau.

Lucky to miss: Hargrave (42), Lake (49), J. Selwood (62), Mumford (39).

• Tbetta’s Tweets

Good question… Yes and no. You can’t afford to trade in someone like Tom Couch or Tom Mitchell over the next two weeks if they’re not playing, because you’re basically just trading in donuts.  However, if there is a lack of quality downgrade options after Round 13, and you’re convinced that they’ll get a gig at some stage, then go for it. Especially Couch, who is basement price and DPP; even if he doesn’t play, he can just languish in your M8 or F9 slots without damaging your team.

I’m thinking of doing this with Mitchell after R13 myself, even if he hasn’t debuted by then. It’s just a matter of time before he gets an opportunity at the Swans.

 

Easy. Trade out Scotland – you can’t afford to have those two extra ‘Premium’ donuts marring your team over the MBRs, especially for an injury. I’m going to keep Waters – his suspension will probably mean an extra two donuts, but I find it incredibly difficult to trade out someone who is fully fit.

 

Mate, if you can keep it to two donuts without trading, you’re a genius. But I highly doubt you can. That would basically require every single one of your players playing in every round, with a perfect bye structure.

To answer your question, I’d be over the moon with about 6 donuts while using the 4 trades. That requires a heap of luck though, so I’d be content with around 8 or 9 in the end.

 

Great stat! I was initially looking at Thompson and Rockliff for a midfield upgrade after Round 12 (already have Boyd), but Redden has come from nowhere and has to be a legitimate option now. He’s had a huge turnaround in form, averaging 84 in his first 5 games and 119 in his last 5! That’s largely due to his increased tackling, averaging 4.6 then 8.4 a game in those respective time periods. He’s definitely on the radar.

 

• Free Donuts

They’re MBR’s are finally here. Can’t say I’m too excited about these Byes or the prospect of a bucket-load of burger rings but what can we do? Good question. Here’s your four-part plan for attacking Round 11.

1. Sub off all of your Crows, Lions, Eagles, Bulldogs, Roos and Giants. Sub everyone else on. Realise how pathetic your team looks and crack a beer (or red cordial for the young’uns).
2. Don’t trade. Unless you have Scotland (or some other injured player) trading now will not prevent you a donut. A helpful tip is to look at your mates’ sides and analyse how pathetic their teams also look, hopefully calming you so you can resist the temptation to trade. Cracking another beer may help.
3. Cross your fingers and toes. Pray to your God; if you don’t have one, join the nearest church for the next three weeks. Beers, at this point, are basically a must.
4. Eat your donuts. Wash them down with beer.

That’s about all you can do. Just reiterating: Do. Not. Trade. There is simply no point unless you have an LTI. It’s pretty basic theory, but for those who are wondering why: Obviously trading out a player from the Round 11 bye to someone with a Round 12/13 bye will save you that donut in the short term, but really all you are doing is relocating that Bye to another round. And wasting a trade in the process.  So stick to your guns this week, follow the easy four-step guide above and hopefully having sharp objects in the house won’t be a significant health risk.

Just a quick note: Some coaches are questioning the worth of downgrading a R11 player (such as Bugg, Devon Smith, McDonald or any other plateaued Cash Cow) to another R11 player this week for the cash. This is probably with a view to make a DUU (downgrade-upgrade-upgrade) after Round 11. I’m not against this idea in theory, but given the downgrade options that fill the bill it’s probably too risky. The only R11 Bye rookie on the bubble to have played last week is Sam Shaw from the Crows ($104,200, 68.5 avg, -69BE), but he would have to play over the next two rounds to make it worthwhile. Otherwise, you’re basically trading in two donuts. Can you trust his job security? Probably not.

 

• Round 11

Round 10 was a week of upsets – Brisbane over West Coast, Melbourne over Essendon and Port over Carlton ruined more than a few tips and multis I’d say. It’s a very interesting part of the season, and you can just sense that some of these guys are screaming out for a week off. For that reason, I don’t there’s any such thing as a sure thing this week, in both the AFL and DT. Except for Ablett to cop the CJT.

Also, remember that it’s a very spread out weekend in Round 11, with a few less games and the Dees and Pies meeting on Monday for the annual Queen’s Birthday clash. As if this week wasn’t going to be long enough already…

No Meme this week, just a cheeky site I found during the making of this week’s Bullets. Below are a couple of my favourites. Enjoy! http://paulchapmanwithhair.tumblr.com/

 

Well, that’s it for me for a while. I’m going to Arizona for two weeks to freshen up, and I’ll see you back after the MBR’s wrap up. I’m sure someone will step up and help you navigate you through these troublesome Bye rounds in the meantime. Good luck!

 

 

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