tbetta’s Bullets: Round 22

• Hope You Had The Week Off

Round 22 was not kind to those who weren’t lucky enough to proceed straight through to the Prelims. We all knew it was going to be a tough round given the lack of Cats, but unfortunately it was our other Premos, not our Cat replacements, who gave us all headaches this week.

Scoring was right down with a couple of tight contests. Not many points came from Friday Night’s Hawks-Blues clash, while St Kilda vs Sydney was always going to be a dour affair. As a result, par was around 2150 this week, which would have placed you inside the top 10,000 for Round 22.

• Tbetta Than You Vs Merv Gray Autos

This week I came up against Merv Gray Autos, brainchild of the rookie guru Chook. As you can see from our uniques, his team was a lot more… proven, averaging a good 6 or 7 points more than mine over the course of the year.

After Friday night it was pretty close, and I was happy with my decision to not trade I. Smith – 75 was a decent return, and probably more than Adcock would get (I was obviously wrong). But then Thompson went out and smashed a 151, and I was dead in the water, or so I thought. Saturday night threw in a few surprises, with Pavlich and Petrie underperforming and Cloke having a blinder. This left me 17 points ahead with my O’Keefe vs his Goodes.

And as it always goes, Goodes sunk me. For the umpteenth time in my DT career, not having the dual Brownlow Medallist came back to bite me, eliminating me from the All-Stars League. Up next week is HARF SERIOUS  vs destROY, while in the other pre-lim stjoeysonslaught takes on Merv Gray Autos.

Let’s give our boys @RoyDT and @djch00k some love on Twitter this week!

• Big Winners

As we have come to expect all year, big wins means big points. This simple fact should be a huge deciding factor in your trades and subs for the remainder of the year.

Below is a scatter graph of the amount of tons the winning team gets, depending on the margin of the game. We can see there is a significant positive trend here, one that we accept in theory, but also actually works in practice. The one outlier there is from the Eagles vs Bombers game, where the margin blew out because the Bombers were down to 2 on the bench and ran out of legs in the last term.

When you look at the 90+ scores, the trend is even more obvious.

This gives us a good idea of who best to trade in this week, or play on your field, based on whether you think the game will be a thrashing or not.

For instance, Collingwood should smash Freo, so expect a few tons out of that one. But they play Geelong the week after, so maybe trading in someone like Daisy Thomas or Cloke isn’t that good an idea?

A better idea is trading in Hawks players, who play the Bulldogs and Suns in the last two. The Bulldogs game should be an easy win (and they are notorious for leaking DT points) and it will be a buffet against the Suns. Suckling, Shiels, Hodge and Cyril should all be on your radar for those who don’t already have them. Melbourne also has a great run home (Port and Suns!) so get on them for a unique edge.

One team that you should stay away from is the Saints. They play the Kangaroos this week, which is basically a knock-out game for a spot in the 8. I expect it to be a low-scoring struggle with not much between the sides at the final siren, suggesting a low-scoring DT affair. Then the Saints have Carlton in Round 24 which should be close as well – so stay away from Fisher, Montagna and Riewoldt if you were thinking of trading them in.

• Red Cross

We all get that sickly feeling to the stomach when we are following the scores and see that ugly little red-cross or red sub-vest pop up. One injury can easily wreck a week; just ask Bartel or Mundy owners from earlier in the year!

There were a few significant injuries this week, let’s have a look at their best replacements.

OUT Broughton IN Suckling/Enright

Broughton has been on a downward spiral of late, and this culminated in a grand total of 2 points for the final quarter against the Roos on Saturday, being benched for most of it because of a big hit. He is considered a good chance to have a rest this week, so who to get in?

Suckling has got to be the number 1 choice. Many have him already but if you don’t, it’s time to capitalise on his great run home. An absolute bargain at 336k.

Enright is the other obvious one. It’s safer due to the fact that he’s already been rested twice this year and has just had a week off with the bye, so he should play out the next two weeks.  The run home of Sydney this week then Collingwood in Round 24 is the obvious concern, as is his $353,500 price-tag.

OUT Jobe Watson IN Shiels/Embley

Jobe Watson left the game Eagles game early with a concussion courtesy of Beau Waters and didn’t return. While he should be good for this week, he probably will be affected slightly (remember Jordan Lewis), and he has his bye in Round 24 anyway.

Shiels is a great sideways (if you have a little coin spare) for the Bomber captain. He racks it up against weak opposition, and some recent cooling in his form has lowered his price. Perfect option for the run home.

If you have no cash lying around, there isn’t much to choose from. Andrew Embley is probably your best bet, coming off two good scores and a dream run home of Brisbane and Adelaide.

OUT Pavlich IN Rioli/ LeCras

Pavlich has finally succumbed to that niggling leg injury, which leaves many teams with a gaping hole in their forward lines. With Sylvia possibly suspended, things get even worse. Who can you rely on to fill the void?

Cyril has to be the man. He’s cheap -a straight trade for Pav – at $345,200, and he has the run home and the improved fitness to deliver. His last 3 games against teams not in the running for the Top 8 are 95, 93 and 151. Get on Squirrel!

If you already have him, then the next best thing is LeCras, all things considered. Chapman and Stevie J have a bad run home, and Cloke against the Cats isn’t very enticing. LeCras, like Rioli, is also very cheap (322k) and has that same dream run home as Embley.

 

• Makers

  
  

Dream Team is a very emotional hobby sport, which means there is always the possibility that you will let your personal feelings get in the way of good logic. Case in point; one of my mates traded in Scott Thompson a while back and I insisted straight away it was a bad idea. I didn’t really have any reason to say that, except that I’ve always disliked him as a player, and admittedly I let that get in the way of my better judgement. Anyway, Thompson decided to prove to us all on the weekend that he is an elite ball-winner and deserves to be taken seriously. 51 disposals against any team is a massive effort, and the 151 points he scored rewarded the teams who included him for a unique flavour.

With everyone sporting Cox in their ruck division, it’s fair to assume that anyone reading only had one of Mumford, Jacobs or Clarke in their side at the weekend, which is why they share 2^nd spot. Mummy was magnificent against the Saints with a huge 54 hitouts and a goal contributing to his 146, while Jacobs single-handedly destroyed the Suns rucks with 47 taps of his own for the same score. Clarke was also impressive, scoring 129 as the only Docker who eclipsed the 100 point barrier, playing a Cox-like role with 12 marks and 24 possessions.

If there’s one player in the competition that destroys bad teams, it’s Travis Cloke. He was disappointing last week against the Saints’ strong defense, but opposed to what the Lions had to offer back there (not much) he was bound to capitalise. His 134 this week included 14 marks – a season-high. Hopefully the big guy doesn’t get rested like a lot of the Pies are slated to…

Colon Sylvia has been the bane of our existence for a few weeks now, but he finally hit back. Unfortunately, that hit was considered high and excessive and he was reported, which means we may still come to loathe the stocky Demon. He returned in style though, with his stats reading 29 possessions, 5 goals and a speccie! Some mercy from the MRP would be appreciated given his next two are the Suns and Port.

Alan Didak. Another one of those guys we have come to resent in 2011. His fitness has been an issue all year, given his lack of pre-season and later a calf issue. But now he seems to be getting back to where he was last year, and that includes scoring tons! He had 109 this week from 30 touches, and at 236k, he is an absolute steal if you have the trades/balls!

• Breakers

  
  

1. Pavlich 39

2. Petrie 48

3. O’Keefe 58

4. Broughton 51

5. Howe 2

The worst-kept secret was confirmed on Saturday – Pavlich is carrying an injury. And now he’s aggravated that ankle, and is expected to miss the last two games of the home and away season. He put a lot of coaches in compromising positions this week with only 39 points before being subbed off – now he’s costing them a trade.

The up-and-down nature of key forwards is something we have come to expect in DT, but none have the sizzling heights and lacking lows that Petrie does. Was barely sighted against Freo, and was lucky to get to 48 in the end. Keep playing him though, he’ll probably smash out a 150 next week.

I talked about him earlier in respect to my side, but O’Keefe has to pop up here again in the Breakers. 58 is his 2^nd-lowest score for the year, coming at a really bad time for us DT coaches. He started well, but drifted out of the game, scoring only 19 in the 2^nd half. Not good enough at this time of the year O’Queef.

Greg Broughton has to go. He was an inspired mid-year pick-up when he was released through the midfield, but has struggled ever since the Hawthorn match when he suffered a mystery niggle. Lately he has been languishing in that dreaded back-pocket, and given Mundy’s return and the fact that he was benched for the last quarter after suffering a hit from Pederson at the weekend, we can expect it to continue. He had only 51 at the weekend, and probably less than that against the Pies, if he’s even fit to play.

Jeremy Howe sneaks into the Breakers with a huge score of…. 2. That’s all the Demon managed in almost 3 quarters of footy, in which he spent most of it in the negatives. Needless to say, he was subbed out. Not many played him, but there were a few who used him to cover Chappy instead of using a trade – Ouch!

• Round 23

The Prelims are upon us, as is the Carlton bye. So Gibbs, Scotland, Judd and Murphy all go to the Chopping Block, where they’ll be sorted into Trade or Bench piles. I suggest keeping Gibbs, who will haunt you in Round 24 if you trade him out now. As for the others, it depends on trades left, etc, but consider benching as Heppell and Isaac Smith have been great cover lately.

Trades become more important than ever now, and the smart coaches will use them wisely. Beware resting and late withdrawals – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but they’re coming!

The big fantasy games this weekend are the first three – Pies vs Dockers should be a treat for coaches will a lot of Collingwood players, while the Hawks should go to town against the Bulldogs on Saturday. Geelong vs Sydney is the other important clash, and I’m expecting low scores all round, just like Sydney’s game last week.

Until next week.

 

 

Tweet me at @tbetta9.