I agree to an extent that a players 3rd year can be their breakout year, but I would lean more towards saying that the 3rd year is when they start playing consistent footy in a team, they have cemented their spot and are pumping out a consistent 85 – 100 per game.
It is around the 5th, 6th and 7th + years that players will really go BANG and turn in to super-premiums eg Ablett, Swan, Montagna, Bartel and Boyd and will start to average 110 + per game.
Lets take a look at those 5 players…
(yr)Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (av)
Ablett
1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 36.9
2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 68
3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 68.3
4thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 76
5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 77
6thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 98.5
7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 111.7
Swan
1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 30
2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 52.6
3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 65.2
4thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 101.9
5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 101.5
6thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 102.5
7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 119.1
Montagna
1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 28
2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 45.5
3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 54
4thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 71
5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 80.8
6thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 95.7
7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 87.5
8thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 115.8
Bartel
1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 49.2
2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 49.8
3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 92.9
4thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 82.7
5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 98.2
6thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 114.4
7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 113.2
Boyd
1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 28
2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 56.7
3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 54.1
4thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 82.5
5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 96.6
6thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 91.9
7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 103.8
8thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 115.1
Now there are always anomalies like Barlow last year and Selwood but there are a host of other players who go bang between their 5 – 8th years, I thought that this article could be a good point of discussion to analyse players who are following this trend and about to explode. What made me think of this was a discussion in a previous post about Shaun Higgins which got me thinking that EVENTUALLY he will become a premium… hopefully!!
One problem about trying to predict the next ‘Swanny’ is the awkward price range that the potential super-premium will be in. If you look at the stats above you can see that all 5 players pretty much averaged between 90 – 100 before they made the leap to averaging 110 +
Anyway, start throwing some stats and players around…
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