Inside the Fantasy Numbers – Round 5

It has been quite a volatile start to the AFL Fantasy season for most coaches, if you have avoided the bullets from injury through to playing status or even form slumps you have been spared to this point. Making decisions from what unfolds in the early part of the season can be dangerous especially as premium players are being traded in to teams for the remainder of the year now, experienced coaches are likely relying on a greater body of work and more data than just the odd break-out game.

Points Given up by Teams

Nth Melbourne are the new Richmond, they are the only team that has not conceded 1500 total game points against any opposition team this year. Don’t look now but ranked No.2 just behind the Kangaroos are the Western Bulldogs, the Dogs have also been a Fantasy nightmare for opposing teams in 2016. It will be interesting to see what numbers are produced in Round 6 when these teams meet.

AFL FANTASY  AGA AVE
NTH MELBOURNE 1424.8
WESTERN BULLDOGS 1464.8
GEELONG 1466.2
GWS GIANTS 1471.2
SYDNEY 1521.6
GOLD COAST 1525.0
WEST COAST 1551.6
ADELAIDE 1569.8
HAWTHORN 1577.2
RICHMOND 1592.0
MELBOURNE 1594.8
ESSENDON 1599.8
CARLTON 1617.8
BRISBANE 1620.8
ST. KILDA 1676.8
FREMANTLE 1682.0
PORT ADELAIDE 1702.8
COLLINGWOOD 1722.6

Round 6 Game Stats

Western Bulldogs 5th consecutive game with 400+ Disposals (447 vs Brisbane & 2016 Ave 454.2)

Nth Melbourne have not conceded more than 366 Disposals to a team in 2016 (Ave 344.4 Disposals conceded)

All 5 Bulldogs opponents this year are currently ranked 11th or worse for conceding Disposals, Nth Melbourne are Ranked 2nd

Other Stats

Hawthorn have conceded 400+ Disposals in each of the last 3 games

 

Jarrad Waite

Individual Stats

Jordan Lewis 59pts vs Crows

Lowest score since R12, 2013 57pts

Has now recorded 2 scores fewer than 61pts this year (Ave 94.8pts)

Max Gawn 142pts vs Tigers

2nd highest Career score (Highest 146pts vs Bombers R15, 2015)

Scott Thompson 126pts vs Hawks

2016 Ave: 113.2

Last 4 Games: 119.3

Did You Know?

Scott Thompson has had 49 career games of 120pts or more (16.9% of all games), 122 games have gone for 100pts or more (42.1% of all games)

Andrew Gaff is the only player for West Coast to have scored 100pts or more in both travel games in 2016, no other West Coast player has scored 100pts in either game

Tom Campbell 102pts vs Brisbane (Stefan Martin)

Was a career high score & 1st time he scored over 85pts

He is eligible as FWD/RUCK

Stephen Coniglio Ave 97.0

Scores of 123 & 113 in his last 2 games

123pts vs Saints in R5 (5th Career highest)

 

Scott Thompson

CLUBPTS FOR>100 FOR>120 FORPTS AG>100 AG>120 AG
ADE1604.22.20.61541.82.81.4
BL1393.620.21619.44.20.8
CAR1475.63.20.41616.63.21.4
COLL15483.20.41758.252
ESS1701.25.41.81574.82.20.6
FRE1474.62.21.21680.65.41
GC1564.63.41.41522.630.4
GEE1571.22.60.61464.42.61
GWS16163.40.81470.42.40.6
HAW1627.43.811576.221
MELB15592.60.61592.64.41.2
NM1590.63.21.21421.21.80.4
PA14732.60.81700.24.41.2
RICH1496.43.40.81589.62.81
STK16543.61.816754.21.4
SYD1614.23.8115192.40
WB17944.611506.620
WC1604.43.20.81549.63.60.8

3 Prime Targets after DPP Changes

Robbie Gray MID/FWD

Salary: $517K
Break Even: 144.0
2016 Average: 93.4
2015 Average:  96.8

Forward Status has been awarded to Gray, after a brilliant start to the 2016 season with scores of 125 & 127 he has struggled in his last 3 games with an average of just 71.7pts per game. Considering his high BE and volatility in scoring Gray should  be considered as an upgrade to forward lines later in the year, he will be far cheaper than his current price plus it will give Coaches more time to analyse his scoring output.

James Kelly MID/DEF

Salary: $508K
Break Even: 79.0
2016 Average: 104.0
2015 Average:  81.8

Defender Status has been awarded to Kelly, after getting a 2nd chance at AFL late in his career Kelly is racking up an average of 27.0 Disposals per game. Kelly has never averaged over 100.0pts in a single season, but his weight of numbers and now DPP status make him a prime target for many Coaches. Durability may be the only concern for Kelly in 2016, he missed 5 games last year with the Cats in his final year. There are 2 thoughts for trading in Kelly, get him now because of a reasonable BE price or wait a little bit longer to see how the season unfolds for he and also the Bombers. With 3 scores over 100pts already this season, it is going to be very difficult to say no to him this week.

Bernie Vince MID/DEF

Salary: $516K
Break Even: 86.0
2016 Average: 100.0
2015 Average:  92.4

Defender Status has been awarded to Vince, with 3 consecutive scores over 100pts Christmas has come early for those with cheap backlines looking to upgrade. Since being let of the chain by the Demons at Round 8 last year Vince has averaged 99.9pts from his last 19 games which has included 11 scores of 100pts or more, Vince has a decent ceiling of points with his highest score over this period being 158pts vs Geelong in Round 12 2015. Vince is a must have for any defensive line-up as he should rank amongst the top in this category by the end of the year, his price is likely to increase gradually over the next few weeks at his current average.

 

Melbourne

NameClubPriceAveAddPos
Clay CameronGC$26300062.8FWDDEF/FWD
Ryan DavisGC$21200052.5FWDMID/FWD
Nick GrahamCAR$37300071.5FWDMID/FWD
Robbie GrayPA$51700093.4FWDMID/FWD
George HewettSYD$24300065.5FWDMID/FWD
James KellyESS$508000104DEFMID/DEF
Will LangfordHAW$41400077.8FWDMID/FWD
Jamie MacmillanNM$37600066.8MIDDEF/MID
Kamdyn McIntoshRICH$37800072.8DEFMID/DEF
Callum MillsSYD$29800066.4DEFMID/DEF
Bernie VinceMELB$516000100DEFMID/DEF
Aaron YoungPA$31100066FWDMID/FWD

16 Comments

  • Suckling to Bernie seems a fairly logical trade for me to make, and later in the year I’ll look to get Suckers back in.

  • Thanks Pete, will definetely be looking to get in Vince and Kelly

  • Gonna need luck to afford Vince next week, but yeah, absolute must have for anyone who took in mid priced defs with the expectations that the top 6 would be mostly DPP additions preseason. Kelly will do if it’s all I can afford then.

  • can someone help me out with DPP?

    at the moment my backline is struggling (with the likes of byrne, adams and ruggles averaging about 50 over the last 2 rounds)…

    I’ve got mills in my MID (who has gained DPP) and want to slot him back in DEF to organise things out there…

    But how do i do that? at the moment i don’t have anybody in my back line with MID status…is there a way of doing that which i’m missing out on? or does it mean that i have to trade one of my DEF’s for a Bernie Vince / James kelly, and then throw them into the MID instead off mills?

    • do you have any fwd def players in your forwards/backs? Like adams or tippa? And you’ll usually have to make a trade at the same time for it to work. For example trade out a forward then move adams/tippa to your forward line then mills down back and then you’ve got a free spot in the mids.

    • Trade out one of your defenders then swap mills into defence then you can trade in a pure mid

      • what do you mean by trade out?
        if i hit the trade button, i have to trade in a player instead

        • Trade a defender, will then have an option to move an eligible defender from another position into defence. Will have an ‘S’ for sub or an arrow depending if you are using the website or the app. Just say for example mills into defence, then you will need to trade in a mid. If that makes sense.

        • If you are in AFL fantasy then it helps to click on the “Advanced Trades” button. There you can trade two players at once, and switch your DPP players through their various positions.

          This means you can trade out a defender, click on Mills to switch him to the backline, and then trade in a mid-fielder. Good luck, and go Dees…

  • Question is kelly or vince?

    • The answer is probably both, over time. Probably Vince first even though Kelly is cheaper. Vince will give you 80-130, with an avg of ~90-105. Jury is still out on Essendon, and Kelly as a result.

      I can’t get to either this round, but will probably make sure both are in after the bye rounds. Along with Shaw and Laird (or several other semi-premo defenders), that’s 66% of your defence sorted.

  • Who is likely to score better R Gray or Barlow?

  • Sheridan => Josh Smith via DPP with Mills

    Menadue => Vince via DPP with Cameron

    Thoughts?

  • Why do the points against numbers in the first section not match the table a bit below that?
    e.g the top table shows that opposition teams score 1722.6 points on average against them, and then the next table shows that number to be 1758.2?