Inside the Fantasy Numbers – Round 4

Pete from aflratings.com.au takes a look inside the AFL Fantasy Numbers each week.

That winning feeling vs that losing feeling

Teams have scored an average of 174.9pts more in Wins compared to losses in 2016, West Coast has scored an average of 380.3pts more in their 3 wins compared to the 1 loss vs Hawthorn in Round 2. After recording a win in Round 4 Brisbane has the 2nd best differential between their 1 win and 3 losses, the Lions were 346.0pts better off this past week than in previous games.

A sign of poor form shows up in 2 Teams that have a losing record so far in 2016, both Richmond & Collingwood are the only teams to have a negative points differential from their 1 win compared to average losing games. The Tigers scored just 1408pts in Round 1 vs Carlton whilst they have averaged 1569pts in their 3 losses, the Magpies scored 1496pts in their Round 2 win vs Richmond whilst they have averaged 1524.7 in their 3 losses.

Of the 36 total wins over 4 rounds of AFL on 5 occasions a team has failed to score 1500pts in a winning game, Nth Melbourne has achieved this twice in Round 2 vs Brisbane & Round 3 vs Melbourne. Teams have failed to score 1500 total team points in 23 of 36 games when that team loses.

Of the 16 Teams to have recorded at least 1 win, the average points conceded per winning team is 1484.7pts compared to 1664.5pts in a losing team. Richmond & Hawthorn have a small positive point differential conceding less points in a loss compared to a win, they are the only 2 teams to have a positive differential in this area.

Of the 36 total losses over 4 rounds of AFL on 10 occasions a team has conceded 1800pts or more in a game, Fremantle & Collingwood have both conceded 1800pts twice in 2016.

WC

Best AFL Fantasy Average Team Points FOR (Winning Teams)

1. St Kilda 1876.0

2. Essendon 1874.0

2. Western Bulldogs 1843.3

Worst AFL Fantasy Average Team Points FOR (Winning Teams)

18. Richmond 1408.0

17. Collingwood 1496.0

16. Geelong 1595.7

Bulldogs getting it done with more than just a few

The Western Bulldogs are Ranked No.1 scoring an average of 1806.8 Team points per game, it might surprise you however that only 2 players are averaging 100pts or more. Lachie Hunter is the only active player throwing up a considerable average of 109.8pts, the second player is Robert Murphy who averaged 102.0pts in his first 3 games but is unavailable after injuring his knee at the end of Round 3.

What won’t surprise you is that there are 9 players that are averaging 90pts or more and to think Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken & Koby Stevens are not in the group of 9 is a little surprising.

Bulldogs Players to Average 90pts or more by Position

DEF

102.0 Robert Murphy
99.3 Shane Biggs
92.8 Jason Johannisen
92.0 Matthew Boyd
91.3 Matthew Suckling*

MID

109.8 Lachie Hunter
93.8 Jack Macrae

FWD

97.8 Caleb Daniel
93.3 Luke Dahlhaus*

*DPP

For a replacement for Jason Johannisen, the players to be most aware of at the Bulldogs are likely to be Shane Biggs & Matthew Boyd. Biggs scored 112pts in the 1 week without Robert Murphy whilst Matthew Boyd has been ultra-consistent scoring 92pts in each of his 4 games this year.

Matthew Suckling

2016 Venue scoring

It is still early days in the 2016 AFL Season but taking a peak at venue scores might provide a little bit more information for the remainder of the year, the form of Gold Coast has meant Metricon Stadium is tracking well whilst Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval has delivered a couple of high scoring games.

Eithad Stadium has 3241.4 average game points in 2016, the 1 game with the roof open produced 3363pts in Round 1 Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle

2016 Highest Scoring Venues (Ave Total Games Points)

1. Metricon Stadium 3271.0
2. Adelaide Oval 3247.8
3. Aurora Stadium 3266.0

2016 Lowest Scoring Venues (Ave Total Games Points)

11. GABBA 2831.0
10. Simonds Stadium 2973.0
9. Blundstone Arena 2959.0

The Disposal Count

Western Bulldogs are the only team to record 400+ Disposals in all 4 games this year

Ave 456.0 per game

St Kilda has recorded 400+ Disposals in 3 of 4 games this year

Ave 410.0 per game

Collingwood & Carlton are the only 2 Teams to conceded 400+ Disposals in 3 of 4 games this year

Magpies are giving up 425.3 per game

Blues are giving up 394.8 per game (415.7 in the last 3 weeks)

Jack Steven (3)

Best Team Points FOR (Scoring the most Points)

1.Western Bulldogs 1806.8
2. St Kilda 1688.8
3. Essendon 1679.3

Worst Team Points AGA (Giving up the most Points)

18. Collingwood 1748.8
17. Fremantle 1732.5
16. Port Adelaide 1705.5

CLUBPTS
FOR
>100
FOR
>120
FOR
PTS
AG
>100
AG
>120
AG
ADE1599.752.50.51529.52.51.75
BL1378.520.251585.7541
CAR1474.752.50.51623.753.251.25
COLL1515.53.50.51748.54.751.75
ESS1677.255.251.515492.250.75
FRE1446.252117315.251.25
GC1597.253.751.751511.530.5
GEE1541.752.250.51514.7531.25
GWS15793.250.251459.2520.25
HAW1636.53.751.251564.752.251
MELB1513.520.251648.254.751.5
NM1596.53.251.514181.750.5
PA1525.53117034.51.25
RICH15283.511551.752.250.75
STK1688.753.51.751652.754.251
SYD1610.253.751.251500.752.750
WB18044.51.251519.7520
WC1607.53.7511529.53.51

14 Comments

  • Based on the same data from previous years, what has been the trend (if there has been one) of these figures over the remainder of the season?

    • The stand out is Disposals, no team averaged over 400 Disposals last year & 3 teams so far are over the 400 mark in 2016.
      The Bulldogs at 456 Ave is ridiculous, but the way they play the game can see why. Bulldogs Ave 222.3 Handballs per game, 24.0 more than any other team.
      If you see them go coast-coast from deep in defence, once they hit half back the go handball crazy.
      Will be interesting to see how the numbers are impacted without Murphy & now JJ for the next few weeks.

  • Cheers Pete! Look forward to these posts, alway influence my trades, even if just by a minor amount! :P Bullies and Saints seem to offer the most upside in the current point of time.

    • Good to see you mentioned by a minor amount, the information needs to form just a little part only of decision making. Bulldogs & Saints players offering up so much value right now, unsure if Bulldogs numbers are sustainable as opponents may offer up different strategies to combat their weight of possession.

  • Great read Pete.

    Just made my decision for JJ replacement harder. With me looking at either straight swaps of biggs, Boyd or a nice 100k downgrade to fantasia.

  • Don’t have JJ here so no replacement required.
    Thinking long term with ur trades:
    Boyd will be rested at some stage, pretty much a guarantee.
    Biggs’ numbers could be impacted at the back end of 2016 with the return of JJ.
    Fantasia likely nil impact from anything foreseeable expect if the Bombers really struggle at the back end of 2016 struggling to find the ball.
    Taking Fantasia might allow u the room in ur salary cap to get that extra Premo upgrade soon, cash is king!

  • Great post mate! This more than proves that ZMerrett will go huge on Anzac Day against Collingwood at the MCG

    • Most people are thinking this way, the comments made by Bucks last week in relation to Collingwood’s game with Melbourne were interesting. Bucks stated the look of the game could be ‘dour’, the Magpies then proceeded to give up 1800+ vs Demons

      • If I was Bucks this week, I would clamp down on Merrett and Zaha, on the simple basis that ESS have played 2 games at the G, they won one and pushed the Cats (better team then Pies right now) for 3 quarters.

        Why would you let those guys run free? if you can shut them down, you shut ESS down…..I expect them to grind the Bombers down, it won’t be pretty.

        I’m a Bombers supporter, if that matters.

        • and of course the Pies simply CANNOT lose this game. Bucks needs a win, so I can’t imagine he will allow a free-wheeling game, he just can’t take the risk.

  • How do you see west coasts number going long term in comparison to Essendon? Interested to know as am thinking of trading Sheridan for yeo or Fantasia

    • I’m an Eagles fan and I fully expected a 60 from Yeo this weekend

    • We only have 3 NAB games (2 of which were under strength) & 4 games for Bombers to go on with a decimated & rebuilt list.
      Worsfold has them well structured something that was quite evident in their pre-season intra club matches, the numbers are somewhat sustainable early part of this year but it is still concerning at the back end of the season especially with a young list and potential injuries.
      The top end guys like Zaharakis & Z.Merrett etc should continue to rack up good numbers, a possession type game from the Bombers has them putting up elite numbers.
      The tough part will be assessing 2017 for the Bombers
      West Coast numbers will be similar to what they are generating right now

  • Best forward under $575