Pearcey’s AFL Fantasy Team Reveal

2016 is being highly touted as the year of the mid-pricer but I can’t go past the tried and true strategy of good old Guns ‘n’ Rookies. Here is a sneak peak of ‘The Biggest Losers’ for 2016:

pearceyteam

DEFENDERS:

It’s hard to go past two of the long-time Fantasy guns in Jimmy Bartel and Heath Shaw. They should both be top 6 defenders at seasons-end and should both score around their average, if not above. Rory Laird should continue his form of 2015 and with a new surrounding should come a more consistent Fantasy game from Matt Rosa. The rookie-priced players to fill out the line pending Round 1 selection are Ryan Harwood, Mitch Brown, Michael Hartley and Josh Cowan.

MIDFIELDERS:

After an indifferent 2015 and a less-than-ideal pre-season two of Fantasy’s greatest are automatic inclusions – Gary Ablett and Tom Rockliff. Both are arguably under-priced (especially Rockliff) and should again be around the top averaging players in 2016. The other two ‘premium’ players are part of the ‘new-breed’ coming through in Tom Mitchell and Taylor Adams. Both are primed to take the next step in 2016. The MID line is rounded out with prized Sydney draft pick Callum Mills, Bombers top-up player Jonathan Simpkin, Brent Macaffer who is returning from injury, Tigers forward Connor Menadue and rookies Rhys Mathieson and Ryan Davis.

RUCKS:

It’s hard to go past the leading Fantasy player of 2015 in Stefan Martin. He is as consistent as they come and should be good for another 110+ average. At R2 is a player who is showing signs of great improvement in Max Gawn. All that can be said about him is #FEARTHEBEARD

Daniel Currie and Mason Cox will bide their time on the bench.

FORWARDS:

This is the line where the value can be found. Even with the value you still need the big point scorers so that’s where Dustin Martin finds his place. With a (hopeful) return to the midfield Michael Barlow and Toby Greene should both increase their average on 2015 and push to become top 6 forwards for the season. The real value lies in the lower-priced players in Daniel Wells, Daniel Menzel and Ben Kennedy. All of these players should well exceed the average they are priced at and should also make some significant cash along the way. The forward line is rounded out with two of the rookie-priced Bombers in Nick Kommer and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti.

So there we go. With the NAB Challenge completed the season proper is just around the corner. Hopefully you are all putting together a team that you are confident with for the season.

Any questions or comments please hit me up on Twitter – @Pearcey47 and good luck for 2016!

67 Comments

  • That’s a nice team Pearcey, thanks for having the guts to reveal it to everyone!

    Just some feedback
    Positives:
    – I like Mitchell and Adams in the mids, could explode
    – More balanced backs with 3 premos than most teams ive seen- more balanced
    – Gawn and Shaw absolute locks

    Negatives:
    -Isn’t Mathieson out with a broken jaw for at least 2 weeks?
    -A bit too slim in the midfield, it is the powerhouse of the team. I went a bit slimmer like yourself and got punished last year, looked at the top teams in the first 5 rounds they had stacked midfields. Maybe downgrading Bartel (is he durable? Wont be playing a heap of mid time with Danger/Selwoods/Duncan and the HFFs running through; Gregson, Guthrie etc.) to a Lonergan/Sheridan and then upgrading and finding money to a M.Crouch for J.Simpkin/B.Macaffer?
    -Is M.Brown worth the extra money than a Broad? Vlastuin out for a number of weeks with a wrist if I recall? Could use the money in the forwards for B. Kennedy (what is he realistically going to average? 65-70? Couldn’t a sub $200k player average around that eg Tippa with 2 metre Peter replacing him on the bench. That money could be used to upgrade Menzel to Kerridge, who is better value/ JS in my opinion.

    Only my thoughts though, cheers!

    • Yeah mate, that article was done yesterday before the news about Mathieson so will need to find a replacement.
      Agree it’s maybe a bit light in the mids but hard to get a balance across the lines. A DEF or FWD may make way for another MID, will see what happens when teams are announced.
      Menzel could become Kerridge by taking Brown down to a Broad type, again all dependent on who is named round 1.
      Appreciate the comments mate.

    • Slight issue with T.Mitchell is that his average of 106 becomes about 101 with Parker in the team and the fact he does a few tagging roles here and there. Risk v Reward. I did have Titch but have chosen a more safer option.

  • Nice team Pearcy tell me more on J Cowan as you D7?

    • J. Thurlow out with ACL opens up a spot – could be Cowan or Ruggles

    • Yep as Dec10 said. Has been on their list since 2011 and has only played 5 games. They must like him so think it’s now or never. Didn’t do heaps in NAB but if he gets named round 1 then he may be one of very few options.

    • Cowan is a good Daylesford boy (Like myself) Pearcey hit the nail on the head, he has been on their list for awhile, he would have got games last year if not for serious injury.

      Only catch is he has the horrible monday dilemma game.

    • Josh Cowan looks like Max Rooke & will score like Max Rooke. 50s – 60s i reckon. just aslong as he learns to tackle like Rooke i’ll be a happy Geelong supporter :)

  • I think there’s too much money spent in defense tbh

  • Any reason for no Libba?

    • Yep – priced at 80 and I don’t think he will average much more than that.

  • Thanks Pearcey.

    Notice he’s got my boy Cowan, now everyone will be onto him :)

    Although highly risky because Cats have the monday dilemma game.

  • Love the strategy. Hes got 200k ish rookie priced players with good JS and are experienced or vets, the only true cheap rookie has on field is Mathieson in the midfield (Who unfortunately has n has fractured his right cheekbone, so prolly not a round one starter, but that spot can be filled easy with next best rookie).

    Titch Gaz Rocky Adams are all midfield value picks (sub 600k)

    He has a very strong Backline, my guess is because his team is structured around those 200k type players, and he is going Kennedy, Menzel, Wells in forward line, but only Harwood, Brown as similar types in defense.

    Rucks are strong with S.Martin and Gawn who has huge potential.

    Take note, he hasn’t chosen any midpricers.

    • Thanks Shags – Guns N Rookies all the way!

      • I think this year more than recent years is the best time to load up on mid-pricers, particularly in the midfield where you have players like Duncan and Libba who have averaged close to 100 before.

        • Will Duncan and Libba be keepers though?
          Guns and rooks gives you max cash making potential and maximum probability that some of your intitial picks are top for their position, which is the ultimate goal of your premium choices.

          Saying that grabbing one or two midpricers is still a good strategy. Midpricers pose the most risk if they dont perform.

  • Would you consider Dea for Brown in def?

  • What price do you consider a mid to be?

    • Depending on the line but generally between $250K and $450K. Bit higher for MIDs and RUCs (maybe $500K).

  • This Team doesn’t look as strong as your team last year.
    I’m also Stronger then your whole midfield.

  • Are you not tempted by M Crouch, Viney, Hunter etc at all?

  • Nice Pearcey. Always good to compare opinions.

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  • Solid team overall, Might take you a while to raise the million+ you need just to complete your midfield.

    Good Luck

  • Geez I wish they’ve get the correct player profile pictures in there for the new players…I’m sick of all those black outlines.

    Decent looking team there Pearcy. I’ve also gone for a very strong backline (four premiums in my case) at the expense of my midfield. But I reckon you need to somehow get one of Simpkin or Mathieson up to a mid-pricer like Matt Crouch to get a bit more balance. Not sure of your remaining salary, but it’s $170k to go Simpkin -> M Crouch, and you could get $70k of that straight away by swapping Brown for Broad, and another $83k by swapping Kennedy for Menadue.

    Grasham is probably your best bet to replace Mathieson.

    • Just noticed that you already have Menadue on your MID bench. Maybe switch him to the FWD line to replace Kennedy, and put Dunkley on the MID pine?

      • Still a bit of swapping once round 1 teams are announced mate. Will see what happens. Not thrilled with the Simpkin pick but he is the best I can afford.

  • No Dangerfield? Do you think he’ll get the tag?

  • Thanks for sharing your team Pearcey. I’m much like you, going guns & rooks. Very tempted by a lot of the mid pricers but too hard to pick the right one! Will You consider Leuenberger at all if he’s named rnd 1?

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  • Not bad Josh. Keen on Adams but he is a hot head. Concerned that a suspension is just around the corner with him. Weird, but I’m staying away from magpie mids to start with. Would like to see how they work there rotations.
    I see you’re still all over Rosa, (nice). Dan Menzel is a ripper, very keen to start him also.
    Great job mate, looks the goods.

  • any reasoning for not picking kerridge or de goey?

  • Great team Pearcey
    Bit of a question I need help with
    Should I play Kennedy in mids , menadue in forwards and have lonergan in my back line
    Or
    Menadue in mids , McDonald-tip in forwards and suckling in the back ?

  • Any suggestions on what MID to get? I have $475k to spend.

  • Need a few strong teams to play against.

    RDT 225109
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  • pick 2 out of Tippa, Dea and kent

  • Thoughts on m.crouch and n.graham in the midfield?
    Will they continue their NAB cup form into the home and away?

    • I like Graham. Not sure how M Crouch goes with B Crouch in the team.

      • Thoughts on having both crouch brothers in same team?

        And in mids who would you downgrade hall, gray, wells, Kerridge? and who to under 200k?

  • Thoughts on Sheridan??

  • Bartel or laird?
    Howe or weitering?

  • there’s a few things that is a bit wrong with this team
    1. Mathieson won’t play round one, he suffered a broken collarbone after the reckless bump by Jeremy Cameron. Consider some other good rookie selection that should get round one selection (such as Ben Keays).
    2. Josh Cowan doesn’t seem like the best suitor for D7, go for a player who is more likely to play round one and get more on the scoreboard, such as Nathan Broad or Matt Dea.
    3. Sam Kerridge isn’t in your team, replace him with Daniel Menzel (who is very injury prone, and can be proven really inconsistent).
    4. There’s a thing going around between owning Aaron Hall or Sam Gray, I own both, I predict they’ll average around what Toby Greene will average in 2015. Go for at least one of those options to increase your price value.

    Other than that, it’s a pretty solid team, your defense will be something hard to compete against, it’s a lot stronger than mine and certainly everyone else’s. Midfield is a bit weak, four players are either recruits or didn’t play a game at all last season.
    Rucks are a good choice. Both set to average 115+ and 100+
    Forwards is good other than the fact that Daniel Menzel is a total risk.

    • mate the guy is a pernnial top 100 fantasy leaguer. He doesn’t need your “advice”, it’s like telling Einstein how to do applied physics or Telling Michaelangelo to paint by Colours. Also you knwo he posted this before the injury to Matueson was revealed as he has ALREADY commented on an above post. Back in your box.

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  • G’day Pearcey, i’m not here to give you “constructive criticism” about the team you were kind enough to post & do a podcast about. What’re you thoughts on moving simpkin to Oliver if you have the 12k. Chance of making more money vrs the trade off of job security and DPP?

  • DUDT YOUR SELF OFF AND TRY TRY AGAIN ..LOL.. VERY ORDINARY SQUAD..