NBL Dream Team: Round 7 Preview

nbl2015_strip620

The Melbourne United winning streak came to an end in Round 6 and their dream team scores plummeted accordingly. With four doubles this week I think we’ll all bounce back though.

 

Reviewing Round 6

Round 6 Champions

It’s becoming pretty normal to see AJ Ogilvy in the champions list and based on the way he’s going, I can’t see that changing anytime soon. His 68 meant he was only outscored by Daniel Johnson, Tom Jervis, Jerome Randle (74), and Matt Knight (72). With only the two teams having the double match, Jervis was well ahead of Jermaine Beal (64) and Mitch Creek (62) for best value. Rhys Carter (34) topped the value picks for single game players,

Round 6 Disasters

It’s not often that a player is the 3rd best scorer for the week, only 4 points short of scoring 100, to turn it around and become the 3rd worst scorer falling 4 points  into the negatives, but that’s exactly what Chris Goulding achieved. I had been thinking he’d found some solid consistency, but it looks like that was just because Melbourne kept winning. Hold him if you have him though, he could easily go back to his previous form.

While scores were lower due to most teams only have the one match, there were some real game changers too. Adam Gibson (28) only playing was an unexpected misfortune. Backing Jarrod Kenny (24) on court also turned out to be less than ideal. Clint Steindl (-4) also had a really bad game.

 

Get Ready for Round 7

Round 7 Premium TT

AJ Ogilvy manages to top the list, despite his huge price, because in Round 8 only Illawarra and Townsville will play the double match and there will be one captain choice leagues ahead of everyone else. He also has a ridiculously low break-even of 4, so he’s going increase in price this week. Don’t ask me how you afford him though.

Other options that you could look at bringing in are Torey Craig, who has become quite consistent over recent weeks, or Todd Blanchfield, if you think he can find some consistency in the varied Melbourne scorers. Tai Wesley is also a good option if it is certain he will return.

Round 7 Bargain TT

Illawarra really need Larry Davidson to step up and start delivering as the difference between having him on court or AJ on court is currently costing them games. He’s not going to start smashing out huge scores, but he’s already minimum price and should jump up soon. Igor Hadziomerovic is the pick of bargain players with a double match this round, followed by Lucas Walker and Matt Hodgson.

Round 7 Captains

If you’re not keen on any of these boys then you could bet on a guard with a high ceiling like Corey Webster, Chris Goulding, or Stephen Holt, however they all come with the usual risk of disappointment if they have an off shooting night. Charles Jackson is also someone to consider, he’s been a great scorer in all except for his two shockers in rounds three and four.

Melbourne and New Zealand join Adelaide and Perth in having double matches this round. Make sure you’ve got the right players on court and let me know if you’ve got a tough decision about who to bench. I think I’ll be putting Majok Majok on court instead of Nathan Jawai this week after Nate’s disappointing round 6.

12 Comments

  • Thanks for the preview Tristan. How much more cash do you think Majok has in him, or is he close to maxing?

    • I’ve got his break-even for this week at 50 from the two games. He probably has a little bit more left to make, particularly if he can get a few scores in the 30s, but if you need to trade him out then it’s unlikely to hurt you.

  • Great read as always Tristan
    My current side is:
    DJ, Knight (Kay, Walker)
    AJ (Majok)
    Holt, Lisch (Kenny, Prewster)
    Not sure if I need to trade this week and should I back in Lisch or switch him to Kenny cause he has the matches this week?

    • Did you get burnt backing Kenny last week?
      Kenny is averaging 19 while Lisch is averaging 36 and neither has an obviously easy or tough draw. I generally back the player with the double as it’s easier for a single match player to have a bad game.

      Overall though, you look like you can afford to skip making trades as you’re pretty well set up, particularly for next week.

  • Current team
    Dj aber majok young
    Khazzouh kay
    Randle holt webster hadz

    Considering big sneeze to Aj via holt to Beal…. Someone please talk me out of it – Beal has already burnt me this year!!

    • So I shouldn’t point out that Beal has a breakeven of 16 for his two games, while Holt has breakeven of 75 for his two?

      Of course, holding Holt would still be the better choice if they both repeat their round 5 efforts.

      Although getting AJ is pretty worthwhile… :-)

      • cheers mate for your article

        yeah the breakevens are probably gonna convince me to do it – at least with Randle and Webster in my team I can leave Beal on bench this week

  • Worth going Te rangi to young?

    • If it fits for you then it’s a pretty good move as Townsville goes on a run of doubles starting next week, while TeRangi really hasn’t found the next level we were hoping for.

  • Hi Tristan
    Thanks for a great article!
    My big mistake was holding Gibson and taking his $24,000 fall in price :(
    I’m planning to bring in AJ this week as it is possible he could rise another $20,000 and then I would potentially be $40,000 down. I would need to trade Gibson to Beal and then upgrade JK to AJ. I could start Randle and Prather with Beal and Kenny on the bench. It seems like a very weak guard situation. Is it worth it to get AJ…what do you think?

    • Bummer about Gibson but the logical move was to hold him as he was expected to bounce back.

      Having that many Perth players in your guards isn’t a huge problem as they can all score plenty of points with 4 doubles over the 5 next weeks, just make sure you keep a close eye on your team structure and don’t get caught out when the byes arrive.