Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 6

It is a slightly frustrating RTT this week because I am playing a guessing game in regard to who will gain the all exciting DPP status’s on Wednesday. Once they are announced, it could put a whole new spin on our trade plans, but having said that, there is one bloke that I am confident with, and will be backing in and he could be the answer to our Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis issues.

moneyball_saturdayslam

My DPP tip:

If my feelings are confirmed, Matthew Boyd (MID/DEF???, $560,000) will gain defender status after playing the season to date off back flank and picking up the majority of his possessions in the defensive half. This would be like a dream come true for old school Fantasy coaches like myself who used to select Boydy religiously, but have been unable to justify picking him at the expense of a younger midfielders the last few years. If he is available among that backline rabble however, welcome back in the game! Boyd is a future Fantasy Hall of Famer who has shown some vulnerability to ‘old man’ injuries the last couple of years after a durable career to that point. That is probably the only negative I can think of, He is flourishing in the back half with a season average of 105, with only one game under 100 and that was against Sydney in unfavourable conditions for his role. He is the sergeant/ quarter back in the Dog back-line where he recorded 8, 10 and 12 marks in his first three games.  He has a break-even of 105 and should have no trouble reaching that vs the Saints.

Under-Priced Premo

Is he back? After two shocking games and a slow start vs the Demons, he certainly looks back! Michael Barlow elevated his game to the elite premium status last year, but in round three and four where he recorded uncharacteristically low scores of 55 and 44, coaches were left scratching their heads. The positive thing about this for young owners is he has dropped 92K and has a break-even of 128, which suggests he is probably one week from bottoming out in price, but sometimes we just go early, despite all intentions of holding off for a little longer.

Elephant in the room

Ok, none of us are surprised that this guy dominated in his first game of the season, but the decision to trade him in is still comes with an element of uncertainty and risk. Tom Mitchell (FWD/MID $446,000) played predominately in the midfield and dominated with 30 touches and nine tackles for a score of 117. You would like to think an effort like that cements his spot in the side, and playing that role for a while, but hey, I also thought he should have been playing in the GF last year, so only time will tell. I have slight concerns that he was selected an playing that role due to the weather conditions… but maybe that is because I have been force to over-think things with Mitchell that last couple of years. He has a break-even of 53 and is certainly under-priced based on potential… if he is consistently given the chance to reach his potential.

The downgrade

Mature age rookies that know how to get their hands on the pill are priceless. Sun, Josh Glenn (MID, $153,000) ticked all boxes prior to his debut and backed it up with a sensational effort in which he collected 21 possessions, took five marks and laid four tackles for a score of 96. He has a Break-even of -27 and looms as a great selection.

Twitter questions via @RoyDT

YES: Job security looks as good as any other rooks

YES: However, if you have good cover like Yolman, I would consider holding

YES: If you can get him to Boyd, or another mid gun who may get DEF status

Hold: Could be a handy bench option in the backs if he gets DPP

NO: Should average around 100, not a top 8 contender

NO: Is the answer because his BE is lower than his average, however if you need the cash, trade him to Glenn

NO: If you have luxury trades, do it. I’m holding but I get some satisfaction by telling others to trade.

YES: Best mode, Low BE, Unique, reasonable draw

NO: Unless you have no cover etc.

Yes: Maybe a couple of weeks if he gets a run this week. Pop should be back though…

Cheers for the questions, discuss your trades in the comments!

Have a good one

@RoyDT

dtl_rd5

75 Comments

  • great article roy. which two: pendles armitage ebert barlow heppel

    • Heppell and Pendles are the safe bets. Both will average around 115. The other 3 could average around there but there’s far less certainty with them. Given they’re all priced similarly, it doesn’t make much sense to go with the less safe options.

    • Play it Safe Pendles Heppell

    • Pendles Armitage IMO

  • Another good read Roy… has there been anything about coniglio this week? Finished the game on the bench icing a quad??
    Steven or Armitage?

    • I’d say Armitage. Less likely to get tagged although I’m not sure how his role will change when Montagna is back.

  • Jed Anderson to Glenn?

    • Maybe – he might get a kick this week with Lewis and Hodge out. Still, Glenns JS appears better in the long term

    • If you have jhed Anderson, keep him. With Lewis and Hodge out for weeks, his stocks have greatly improved.

      Trade out a plump cash cow instead.

      • Yeah it was a done deal until Roy made the point of his play time due to the suspensions.
        I have CEY, Vandenberg, Cripps and Newton as cash cows in my mid.
        Newton to Glenn a better option?

  • I’m planning on keeping Lewis and playing Cripps, CEY and Newton.

    First trade is Heeney > Glenn as Heeney’s BE is very high.
    Its the second trade I’m having trouble with. Should I go Rich > Mundy/Heppell or is there more value in going Hunt > Boyd. I’m leaning towards the first as I feel as though Hunt, despite the lat couple of weeks, is closer to being a top 8 defender than Rich is to being a top 8 mid.

    • id trade hunt and sub rich into your def if he gets dpp. then you can uprgrade to a mundy or heppell

      • Thanks. Hadn’t even thought about Rich getting DPP but that could work out very nicely. Fingers crossed.

    • If you can’t work out whether to trade out Rich or Hunt, suggest you trade out Lewis.

      Shuffle Rich between Mid/Def to make your trade work if needed. Then give Hunt and Rich 2 weeks to prove themselves. Bigger spud gets dumped when Lewis comes back in 2 weeks.

  • Thoughts on going Saad , Oxley or Mccintosh to Tom Mitchell
    WIll he get a game every week

    • I fear he’s always one bad game away from getting dropped. Not sure why but that’s just the way Longmire sees him.

    • all 3 have quite a bit of cash to make. If you have to trade 1 trade saad but I still wouldn’t and Mitchell is risky to get anyway.

  • Quick question, in Real Dream Team are there any Position changes this week similar to Fantasy?

  • ha ha nice slip up with RICH in def’s Warnie

  • I’m thinking Newton -> Glenn & Salem -> Robbie Gray this week, $117k in bank.

    Means I’m holding Lewis (and Parker and Hunt and Rich who are all nearing the chopping block!) and playing CEY and Vandenberg on field for 2 weeks though.

    • Nice Tex – I am sweating the same this week, though I think Rich should be able to go down back for you and be ok there. I am holding a large axe over Parker, Jelwood and Lewis, and wondering where it will fall.

  • 1.Lumumba/Newnes -> Pendlebury via Rich
    or
    2.McCarthy to Pendlebury via vandenBerg
    or
    3.Lumumba/Newnes -> Boyd

    and

    Newton -> Glenn

    Im personally thinking #2 what do you guys think?

    • I would say #2 or 3… Both appear long term solutions. Key thought for me: Which trade will make you more points, the DEF-Boyd or MID-Pendles trade? That should be your answer. I’m guessing McCarthy isn’t currently on your field. If he is, then option 2 is the one.

  • And on the flip side, Anyone know how close Byrne (MEL DEF) is to a return this week?

  • This week
    McCarthy -> Pendlebury via vandenBerg
    and
    Newton -> Glenn

    Next week
    Lumumba/Newnes -> Gaff, Ebert, Selwood via Rich

    Thoughts? Ive thought of bye structure too

    • Like the trades this week. Newton is close to his max price and Pendles a must. Next week is way too tough to predict at this stage but I’d go for Ebert out of those 3. Are you playing this week?

  • what premo mid is a slight chance of getting defensive status. im sensing that is what the boys were excited about when they saw the list of dpp changes?

    • Hartlett I think is a good chance to get def status, not like he can play too much in mids considering ports current mid line-up.

    • given his heat map, I’m going to say Rich (which was already revealed later that same ‘cast) – he’s had no defensive 50 possessions, and pushes into the centre to get them when Brisbane go forward (similar to Bont), which makes him a real surprise for me

  • Hi all,ranked 72 in rdt,have used 6 trades so far,looking at hodge to McDonald and mcarthy/Clark to dalhaus,will hold Lewis and play Vandenberg

    • don’t get mcdonald. His scores will be up and down, he’s a kpp. 2nd trade looks good.

  • Gold Coast will drop Bennell, McKenzie and Matera for getting on the turps.
    Jack Martin is out to injury as well as Tape.
    The hits just keep on coming..

  • Need some ideas on defenders in RDT

    HODGE/Kelly will both be out

    Got Newnes, Hunt, Mcintosh, Saad, Oxley, Brown on my field this week

    money shouldn’t be an issue

    So i can go Hunt/Kelly up to someone who should i go to. Thinking maybe picken and maybe houli any thoughts?

    • depends what your goals are

      I personally like the look of Enright, but will he be a keeper? ehhhh – at least he’s solid and should play most games with Geelong stuggling to make the 8
      Think Kelly’s got to go too, he’ll be out for around 4 weeks (Cats article) which makes him a must trade

      You could keep Hodge if you’re sitting pretty in a league – I’d be tempted to personally, given that he’s streets ahead of the next best

      also think you need to upgrade one of your rookies
      Saad seems pretty solid for an 80, which makes him a long-term D7 (or last upgrade),
      KMac’s also pegged around that mark
      Oxley’s going to be inconsistent, I’d still keep him though (due to a virtually 0 BE), but be wary of the lower scores
      personally think Thunt has stalled, so would look to be moving on, but not quite sure who to (given the lack of options back there)

      tl:dr – Hold Hodge, trade Kelly->Enright, trade Thunt->Someone

      • Well atm i am 4-0 and have two dead easy games on prediction should win both by 200 and 400 each

  • I wouldnt touch Houli inflated early ave thanks to huge score on the wknd which you have already missed, dont see him ave much over 80 if at all for the rest of the yr. Id prob rather picken or Suckling

    • you think Picken isn’t overinflated courtesy of 2 120+s?
      he’s NEVER scored anything like that before, prime example of a cash grab and nothing more

      • So you are thinking Houli/Suckling?

        • my opinions are posted above,

          I prefer my out-of-the-box options, and would say Birchall&Enright

          • Only thing is Birchill comapred to suckling has a higher BE of 112 and is most likely to drop some cash

      • Yeah he is over inflated but remember the dogs have no Griffen Libba Wallis and Jong from last year with the way they are scoring someone has to take up the slack and score well. Picken is play in the middle so why not? id prefer him to Enright who is guaranteed to not only score poorly but also miss games. Any def are a risk this year especially in rdt so cant really win either way

    • That’s true and suckling has GWS but he has a higher BE then Houli but that does seem the trick Suckling/Picken in for Hunt/Kelly

  • Option 1: Hunt>Boyd and Lewis>Barlow

    Option 2: Salem>Glenn via Krakouer DPP and Lewis>Fyfe. Hunt to Boyd/Mundy next week

    Option 3: Salem>Glenn via Krakouer DPP and Lewis>Pendles. Hunt to Boyd/Mundy next week

    I am only just leaning toward option 2 because I love fyfe but I would like to hear your opinion.

  • So decided on Suckling/Enright in for Hunt/Kelly

  • Any chance whatsoever that Parker gets Fwd?!

    • not for me
      I think we’ve had the release of the DT relevant players, and we’re just getting those ‘yeah, okay’ players

      Players I’m thinking:
      Bruce Fwd, Tarrant Def, HShaw mid, NicNat fwd, S Reid mid, H Andrews fwd
      none of which are groundbreaking, but all of which are meh in their new position

  • Fyfe or Heppell?

  • Fyfe or pendles?

    • Shit that’s a tough one I’ve got both
      Flip a coin at this stage, but probably Pendles just by a sliver

  • Would anyone consider Isaac Smith?

    • Shhhhhhhhh

    • Lewis/Hodge to I.Smith, piggy back up for some value, trade back (or trade out worst premo or straight out upgrade back), possibly a ballsy but acceptable move

  • Whats the big deal with getting rid of Hunt? Did he start tagging again?

    • I didn’t watch the game but supposedly he was following Motlop on the weekend, if that’s anything to go by

  • Mundy Def!!!

    • Just seen that. Was all set on getting Boyd, now definitely getting Mundy

  • I’ll stick with Boyd. Mundys highest ever average is 98 for a year. He might keep up his 118 average all year and thrash his record but I feel the safer bet is Boyd

  • Thoughts on my trades
    Lewis -> Heppell
    Hunt -> Beames

    ??????

  • get boyd instead of beams

  • I reversed and put lewis on the bench and traded heeney for glenn and hunt for heppell

  • I was getting Boyd in this week but he’s out with general soreness. So it’s changed my trades a little.

    Do I trade which one this week out of Lubumba and whitecross? Muddy will be coming in for one of them this week and Boyd the week after for the other. Who do you think will score higher this week out of whitecross and Lubumba?

    Trades so far look like –

    Lewis > Fyfe
    Whitex *or lumumba* > Mundy

  • Also thinking Isaac Smith for a pod but he may not score that we’ll without hodge and Lewis right there.