NBL Dream Team: Round 17 Preview

nbldt

The end of the season is drawing closer and we need to start considering which players we want in our team for the all important dream team finals. Of course some of us need to focus on the present to ensure we make it there.

 

Big Scorers

NBL Rd 1 - Perth v AdelaideAs expected James Ennis led the way and his 128 was another very impressive score. He has scored above his average for five of his six double match rounds, it’s just a shame that’s the last of them for Perth.

Daniel Johnson delivered in style to get 80, the second highest score of the round, and he did it from just one match. Thomas Abercrombie was the only other single match player in the top ten, scoring a solid 54.

 

Disappointments

Wollongong had a poor game this round and it was highlighted by their imports Rotnei Clarke and Kevin Tiggs scoring 8 and 10 respectively. However this was nothing compared to the poor game by Melbourne which left star guard Chris Goulding with a season low of 2.

There were also a few negative scores this round but the big surprise was Jacob Holmes with -2. A poor run of shooting meant he managed to drop over $22K off his price this this round, a double disaster for those who traded him in early.

 

Double Match Trade Targets

Only Townsville has a double match this round and they host Perth before making the road trip to Cairns. Townsville also have double matches in rounds 20 and 21, giving them 8 games over the next 5 rounds.

Definitely: Josh Pace is nicely priced  with good potential and is the best trade target. Brian Conklin has been showing great form lately and now has the highest average at Townsville, although you have to pay a lot more for him.

Probably: Todd Blanchfield is very cheap right now for a player of his talent, the catch being that he’s under-performed significantly for the last three weeks. Steven Markvoic has just had two very good games but is a bit more expensive and has been playing a very up and down game this year. Jacob Holmes was looking great until his recent form slump and although he should bounce back it is a risk that he might not. Peter Crawford has been been slowly finding his form and is still very cheap.

Unlikely: Russell Hinder is a cheap option that could jump up in value if he has a good match, but that’s not highly likely. Mitch Norton works hard every time he steps on court but this rarely translates to good dream team scores for him. Greg Vanderjagt is the cheapest Townsville player you would consider but he’s only been scoring moderately at best all year. I wouldn’t grab any of these three unless you really need money for upgrades elsewhere.

 

Other Trade Targets

As the number of trades which we have left drops below 10, it becomes a fact that you will absolutely keep for the rest of the year some of the players who you own. This means that every time you trade a player into your team you need to know exactly which player you are locking in to stay. So I have 9 trades left and want to make 2 trades this round, meaning that after my trades I need to look at my team and have three players who I’m happy keeping. In this instance it’s easy as I know I’m keeping Ennis, Ogilvy and Young, but each new trade means I need to have one more player who goes onto the keep list.

 

Trade Them Out

Melbourne has the bye this round meaning that if they’re not part of your plans for keeping then they’re a good option to trade out now. They do have one more double match in round 21 though, which they share with Townsville, so some people may want to hold some Tigers until then. I’m definitely trading out Goulding after his shocker on the weekend.

Similarly Perth and Cairns have both just played the last of their double match rounds so their players are good options for trading out. I recommend holding guys like Loughton, Weigh, Steindl and Jervis for at least one more week to get their price rises but drop them as soon as it looks like they’ll start losing value. And finally, keep Ennis.

 

Captain Choice

Brian Conklin is the best choice based on current form, but Josh Pace or Steven Markovic also have the potential to deliver a good score. If you want to avoid a Townsville captain for some reason, then AJ Ogilvy or James Ennis are clearly your best choices, but Daniel Johnson is also in hot form at the moment and could tear apart Wollongong.

 

Other Thoughts

  •  Melbourne has the bye so make sure that any of their players that you’re keeping are on the bench.
  • Having a few Townsville players is a good idea, but remember you’ll likely want to trade them out again after their run of doubles.
  • Always leave your team ready for the next round. I forgot to do this last round after I reversed my trades and then I missed lockout when I got stuck in work meetings. It meant that I scored about 33 points less than I should have and will be a week late trading in Ervin. At least I’d clicked the C onto Ennis.
  • Lockout is Friday evening this week though, much easier to deal with.

 

As Always, Good Luck.

Tristan

Coach of the Statismathgicians

11 Comments

  • Good stuff Tristan. Had a good week last week taking me up to 223rd. Down to 6 trades so I’m not using any this week. Don’t have any Tigers so no worries there.

    A bit worried about putting the C on Pace this week though, he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up recently but hopefully should be the best option versus the one-gamers.

    F: DJ, Pace (Loughton, Ellis)
    C: Ogilvy (Garlepp)
    G: Ennis, Ervin (Abercrombie, Coenraad)

    • I’d back Pace as your captain, it would be really unlucky if he got less than 40. Plus this is going to be a week when Captains matter as there’s not really high ownership of Townsville players. So if Pace happens to score big you’ll get a really nice advantage (and boost in rank).

  • FWD: Worthington Tiggs (Young Ellis)
    CTR: Ogilvy (Loughton)
    GRD: Ennis Goulding (Gliddon Martin)

    Need a bit of Help in Hindsight I would love to trade atleast four of Worthington Tiggs Loughton Goulding and Gliddon out! in the next 2 weeks!

    Think I really need to et Pace this week and DJ the next???

    Thoughts on what I could do with my team this week

    • Definitely ditch Goulding this week, however as for the others then you need to decide.

      You can easily trade out Gliddon, he’s been consistently scoring around a 25 average for weeks now and that doesn’t look like changing.

      Worthington is a tough one. I’m currently planning to hold him through to Melbourne’s last double, but you could easily trade him out and if you do then this week is a good time to do it.

      I’d hold Tiggs. Wollongong has a double next rounds so thats free extra points by keeping him.

      • Any Thoughts on how I could get DJ In?

        • If you traded Goulding and Worthington to Pace and Blanchfield this round then that would give you over $80K savings and then next round you could turn Gliddon into DJ (with another trade to make up the cash if necessary).

          There’s no easy way to get DJ now that his price has skyrocketed.

  • Nice write up Tristan.

    Had a decent round last week. Now sitting 217th with 10 trades left.

    Fwd: Johnson, Ennis (Weigh, Ellis)
    Ctr: Ogilvy (Loughton)
    Grd: Goulding, Ervin (Tiggs, Magden)

    $10.5k left

    Trades this week are:

    Goulding > Blanchfield
    Weigh > Conklin

    $22.3k left

    Was 2k short to bring in Pace instead of Blanchfield.
    Captain has to be Conklin this week. I had him earlier in the year, and have kept an eye on him. Gets a lot of points from his efficiency.

    Pretty much chasing dual game players from now in. Will sit with Johnson, Ervin, Ennis, Ogilvy and Conklin then rotate the rest

    • You’re in a good position, good team with a decent number of trades left. You just need a bit of luck with players like Blanchfield and Magden and you’re set. Good trade plan too.

  • Good write up as usual Tristan

    Had a shit round last week where i dropped from 206 to 253.

    After 1 trade this week (Tomlinson –> Pace) my team looks like this:

    Fwd: Ennis,Conklin(C) (Forman,Ellis)
    Ctr: Ogilvy (Garleep)
    Grd: Pace(VC),Blanchfield (McCamey,Coenraad)

    I have 11 trades and 71K left.

    Looking ahead trade in DJ next week for the double game week

    Then trade in 2 breakers players the week after.

    Cash is an issue for DJ, i may have enough to do Conklin to DJ

    Any advice/thoughts?

    • To get the cash I’d say that McCamey is definitely the player to ditch on two counts, you want to keep the rest of your line up and he’s peaked in price. And with 11 trades up your sleeve it’s a move you should definitely make.

      You can either trade him for someone like Ervin to pick up $12K as a buffer to make sure you can swap Conklin for him, or you could make a big move and get someone like Coenraad which gives you almost $60K and a lot of options.