NBL Dream Team: Round 15 Preview

nbldt

After Sydney and Cairns did some significant team sharing of their Dream Team points, I’m hoping that Melbourne and Wollongong can throw up a few huge results with their doubles this week.

 

Big Scorers

AJ and MorrisonAs expected AJ Ogilvy led the way with a solid 104, however it was a surprise result for second place with Scott Morrison scoring a massive 72 from his single match.

The remaining top scorers consisted mainly of Sydney and Cairns players with 11 players from the two teams scoring 48 or more points. Adam Gibson was the only other single match player to score in that range with a solid shooting display netting him 56.

 

Disappointments

There weren’t too many shockers this week however Thomas Abercrombie had a strange game where he did just a little bit of everything then added in a few extra missed shots and turnovers, ending up with a score of 4.

Lucas Walker had his second score of 10 in a row after injuring himself. However whilst injured and limping he decided to get above the ring and block a Sam Young windmill dunk before subbing off. Todd Blanchfield also got 10 but his score didn’t involving blocking anyone or getting injured.

 

Double Match Trade Targets

Melbourne and Wollongong have the double match round this week. I’d probably avoid trading in any Melbourne players at this stage as they have a Bye in Round 17. Melbourne also is travelling from Perth to Wollongong. On the other hand Wollongong have an extra day of rest between their matches and later have double match rounds still to come in round 18 and the Grand Final round of round 23.

 

Melbourne Trade Targets

The only Tigers I’d consider trading in are Scott Morrison or Tommy Greer. Morrison had a great game against Sydney and assuming he has even somewhat average form over his two games then he’ll go up in value. Greer is almost minimum price, has been getting better every game and with the injury to Walker will get more court time.

 

Wollongong Trade Targets

Rhys Martin and Tim Coenraad are the only Hawks who are priced significantly below the output you would expect from them and both would be a solid trade to get some money. Oscar Forman, Kevin Tiggs and Rotnei Clarke are all providing consistent scores and would be great investment choices. Larry Davidson has struggled to get good scores since his return from injury but could easily turn that around.

 

Other Trade Targets

Gary Ervin is now very cheap for someone of his potential and worth considering. He’s not going to skyrocket in price immediately though so you can afford to wait another week or two with to make sure that his form continues returning.

Alex Loughton and Jamar Wilson are both also cheap after poor runs. Both had good scores this week though so should start going up in price again before having another double match round next week too for extra points. That’s their last last double match round for the year though so neither are great long term trades. Shaun Redhage is also cheap and also in exactly the same boat with Perth’s last double round of the year next week.

Darryl Corletto is minimum price after scoring -8 a few weeks ago, however that big negative will drop out of his rolling average this week and he should start jumping back up in price.

 

Captain Choice

Mark Worthington is the safe option here but there are a few other candidates worth considering. Chris Goulding, who I’ll be making my captain, has a huge ceiling and it just depends on how he handles the Perth defence. Rotnei Clarke can also score very big and played a great game against Melbourne the last time they met. Scott Morrison is coming off a huge match however neither Perth or Wollongong will suit his playing style as well as Sydney did.

 

Final Thought

It’s the first Thursday afternoon lockout in a while so make sure that you’ve got your team ready.

 

Best of Luck

Tristan

Coach of the Statismathgicians

7 Comments

  • Tiggs looks Cheap and With Wollogong’s Future doubles, Looks a good option.
    What do you think?

    • Tiggs is certainly a good grab. He’s been scoring well for weeks now and worth buying. If you think he’ll keep up his current rate then he’s probably slightly underpriced too. Good point of difference though.

    • Hope you grabbed Tiggs, big game from him to start the round.
      Looks far more impressive than the last time I saw him play.

  • Cheers for the articles through the year Tristan.

    One thing I’ve been unable to work out is how the price change is calculated for a player playing a double game. The change always tends to be lower than I’d expect.

    Do you know how this is calculated?

    • Yeah, it can be a bit confusing and it doesn’t always match what you’d expect. I’ve got a spread sheet with some really complex mathematics in it and I can’t always make it match the system.

      However the basic idea is that the double match round should count as two matches and the price increase is based on the average of the last three matches, so it only uses the two rounds generally when they have a double included.

      Also the magic number can change quite dramatically from week to week and this changes things lots. All vague I know but without writing a maths essay I can’t really give you much more. Hope that’s cool.