Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 4

tbetta_bullets

  • Things I Learnt in Round 4

1. Keep Calm and Lock Swan. The fantasy pig showed we have nothing to fear when we back him in with the ‘C’, even if it takes a while to get him oinking. His 119-point average is only second to Stanton (124 avg) out of the midfielders we would have considered Premiums before Round 1.

2. It’s a pain in the neck trying to pick which rookies to play on the field in the next month or two. The Portlets are all over the shop, personified by the fact that Pittard had 28 last week but rebounded with 96 in Round 4. Other popular rooks like Viney and Whitfield have shown a wide range between their best and their worst, while up forward, Neade, Macaffer and Dwyer seem like perennial substitute options. It feels like Russian Roulette sometimes, but with much more dire consequences…

3. Ablett is still better than most AFL footballers with one arm tied behind his back.

4. Brendon Goddard has feelings.

5. It’s a great feeling when you keep the faith and are rewarded. Personally, I was close to ‘fixing up’ Dangerfield and Scooter prior to Round 3, but they’ve responded since I kept the faith – particularly Selwood, who’s notched scores of 147 and 127 in the last fortnight.

 

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R4

3. Mid Rooks

Generally speaking, it was another fantastic week for our midfield rookies. Wines continued his fantasy dominance with 101 DT points and finds himself an incredible $159k dearer than he was a fortnight ago! Not far behind was mature-age Demon Matt Jones with 92, which gives him a BE of -47 thanks to a solid 86 last weekend still in his rolling average. Crouch joined that party with 88 points of his own, as did the highly-touted Lachie Whitfield with 86. The biggest winner of them all was Brett Goodes however, making up for a lacklustre effort last week with a stat-stuffed 115 points in Round 4; he’s shaping up to be a keeper at this rate, scoring 82 or more in three of his four outings.

2. Birchall (151)

With Suckling out for the season, I always assumed Birchall would have less freedom as a result. I couldn’t have been more wrong. He’s been the prime mover out of defence for the Hawks thus far, averaging over 31 touches and almost 120 DT points per match. Hawthorn’s run only gets easier coming into the MBRs, so getting Birch should prove increasingly difficult the longer you leave it.

1. Stanton (130)

Most of the adjectives we’ve use to describe Stanton in the fantasy world traditionally haven’t been very flattering, but how’s this for one I never thought I’d say: consistent. As counter-intuitive and bizarre as that sounds, Stanton is one of the few players to have topped the ton every week so far (Cornes, Westhoff, Birchall, Swan and Boak are the others), and he’s done this despite being tagged ahead of reigning Brownlow Medallist Watson in the last fortnight. This ability to break free is a massive improvement in his game from last season, with his torrid start to the year halted instantly once he started attracting the hard tag. Stanton now has to be considered one of the more reliable upgrade targets in the midfield.

Honourable Mentions: D. Thomas (35), Mayes (75), Ja. Roughead (112), Cloke (147), K. Cornes (156), Swan (130), Burgoyne (113), LeCras (103), Yarran (92), S. Selwood (127).

Trolling R4

3. Viney (18)

The worst thing a rookie can do is put in a shocker right in the middle of their crucial cash generation cycle. By all means, get subbed for 50 points. Even have a week off with ‘The General’ – we expect that crap from our rookies. What we can’t accept is scores like the 18 points that Viney posted in Round 4; scores that put a huge dent in the money-making ability (BE of 29 this week)of one of our more promising rookies. Let’s not forget that most coaches would have had Viney on their field this week vs GWS, so that’s roughly 70-80 that you lose by playing him over Jones or Crouch as well.

2. Hodge (51)

Luke Hodge was one of the most traded-in players last week, as a $399k price-tag and a BE of 1 had him looking extremely tasty. The idea was that he would either 1. Come back to earth with 70-100 point scores, functioning as a ladder to a fallen Super-Premium like Ablett in a few weeks, or 2. Continue to produce at an elite level and become a Keeper. Unfortunately, Hodge peeked behind door three, which was the have-a-shocker-and-ruin-all-cash-generation-ability course of action. As a result, he’ll only jump up another $20k or so (and that’s being generous) this week, before being grounded by that 51-point score. This is just another example of the third week’s score being the most influential in any money-maker’s fortunes.

1. Swallow (64)

After a huge start to the season, Swallow inexplicably threw on the breaks with a disappointing 18-touch effort against the Lions. I assumed he’d earn the Raines tag, but that went to Wells and yet Spitter still struggled. This is a perfect example of why Swallow has failed to breach that Super-Premium status in the past – he’s prone to dishing up a 60-point score on any given day.

Dishonourable Mentions: Suban (13), Parker (41), Bartel (66), JPK (59), Hanley (62), O’Keefe (71), Pendlebury (86), D. Martin (58).

 

  • Nuts and Bolters

Every year, there’s a bunch of players who just come from nowhere. Contrary to convention, these surprise-packets show little or no signs that they’ll burst out of the blocks, shocking even the most dedicated fantasy coaches. If you started with any of the guys in the table below, you’re either a fortune teller, a die-hard Port fan, or you just got plain lucky with the auto-fill function.

Bolters R4
There are some incredible break-out performances in that list. The Port trio of Cornes, Westhoff and Boak lead the pack with incredible improvements on their 2012 output, although it has to be noted that their start to this season has been the softest of any side so far (Melb, GWS, Adel, Gold Coast).It’ll be interesting to see whether they can keep this up, particularly Kornes, who is averaging 24.5 uncontested possessions a game – the most in the league.

One player who I find particularly interesting is Mathew Stokes.  For some reason he was the sub in Round 2, yet he still managed to accumulate 60 points in a quarter and a bit. When you remove that game, we see that he’s averaged 110 in his three non-subbed games; Westhoff is the only forward to average more. This form culminated in him being named as the ‘rover’ in Thursday’s team sheets, and that’s exactly where he played. So, is Stokes the real deal? Well, he is averaging 30 disposals and a goal in those three full matches – I think he could be.

 

  • Round 5 Issues

It’s an awkward time in Dream Team at the moment, stuck in the twilight zone between late fix-it trades and our first upgrades. Many coaches have a bit of cash in the bank from jumping on bolters and missed rookies in the past few weeks, and it’s time to start thinking about investing that capital. But who to bring in? And at the expense of which rookies? Is it possible to bring in another two rookies and therefore leave all that cash sitting in bank for another week?

Round 5 trades are shaping up to be season-defining – it’s all about what choices you make in the weeks where the path isn’t so clear. Here are a few issues that we’ll be facing this week:

Evans or Mayes?

A week ago, I’d have said that Mayes would be a definite inclusion into my squad if he scored 75 in Round 4. As it stands, it’s not so black and white; thanks largely to a huge performance from an under-the-radar rookie in Michael Evans (111). As I alluded to earlier, it might be excessive to engineer another two rookie grabs this week, because not only are  you sacrificing points while you’re not upgrading, you’re also not utilising any money sitting on your bench.

If you buy into that line of reasoning, you’re basically making a choice between Evans and Mayes with that second trade. Of course, there are other rookies on the bubble like Duryea (-64BE, JS queries), Josh Thomas (-30BE, no JS), Wright (-25BE, scoring issues) and Rampe (-17BE, no JS) – but why jump on one of these guys when you can bring in a sure thing? There are arguments for both, making it very hard to make a definitive call…

TBB EvansThe Case for Evans:

  • At base draftee price of $108,500 versus Mayes’ inflated price of $152,200.
  • The 111-point score will stay in his price rotation for two weeks.
  • Is a straight swap positionally for Jack Viney ($182,800, BE29), and is expected to make $160k in the next three weeks (compared to Viney’s $40k).
  • Should have received a job security boost with his job-saving (for Neeld, of course) 3 final quarter goals on the weekend.
  • Doesn’t play for Voss.
  • Scored 112 in a game in 2011, so at least we know his 111 isn’t a complete fluke.

 

TBB MayesThe Case for Mayes:

  • Has looked very much best 21 in his first two matches, giving him some sort of JS.
  • He hasn’t relied on goals to boost his scores so far, whereas Evans needed 3 snags to get to 111 points.
  • Has Mid/Fwd DPP which could come in particularly handy – if you trade him in for Viney – for switches with Dwyer or Neade as required.
  • Also, as a DPP, you can basically trade him in for anyone else in the Mid/Ruck/Fwd lines (assuming you have Rowe/Sinclair resting forward) if you want to keep Viney or don’t have him to begin with.
  • Brisbane battle Melbourne this week, which could make his critical third score a belter and guarantee cash generation for the next month.

Verdict:

I have no bloody idea.

No Reversing and Swanny VC

One sub-plot of Round 5 is the Anzac Day match on Thursday, and therefore no reversible trades after this time. I repeat – we’ll be going old school with our trading this week, so wait for the Friday Cull before pulling any post-Bombers/Pies/Saints/Swans trades. Luckily, this shouldn’t affect our ability to bring in the popular targets likes Mayes, Evans, Birchall, or Ablett. However, if you’re looking to cash in any of Dwyer/Macaffer/Rampe/Kommer , it will have to be done before the first lockout, adding an element of risk.

The interesting thing is that Swanny will be playing in the ANZAC Day clash, meaning we can utilise the VC loophole with the partial lockout. But remember that you have to have a non-playing non-Bombers/Pies/Saints/Swans player to capitalise on it, and looking at my side, every player took to the field last week… Normally we’d rely on our R4 for this sort of task, and if you have Currie, you’re good to go. Daw owners would be a little more nervous however, especially if he’s not officially ruled out before Thursday Teams. Imagine locking in Swanny as VC, him busting out 160 against the Bombers, then realising that you have no one to loophole him with… That’s what FMDTs are made of.

Lack of Ripe Premiums

One look at the Break-evens shows that we have an alarmingly small group of Premiums ripe for the picking. Of course, players that I’ve mentioned in the Bolters section have tempting BE’s but none of those are the reliable Super-Premiums we’d be willing to back in over a whole season. We should be now looking to exclusively trade in either cash-making rookies or players who’ll be in the top players in their position by the end of year, and none of those players meet that criterion.

From what I can see, basically Birchall (55BE), Hartlett (30BE) and Cloke (2BE) are the only players who have low BE’s that look like they could be Super-Premiums in their respective positions over a whole season. If you don’t like this trio, it could actually be worth doing two rookie trades (likely Mayes and Evans), then upgrading (or even double upgrading!) next week when all our Premos have fallen a little farther.

 

  • Premium Forecast

Trade-wise, the most important things that I have to keep in mind from now on is:

  1. Make sure you’re culling cash-cows for the right downgrades targets at the right time, and
  2. Make sure you’re bringing in Premiums at their cheapest.

Now, I can’t predict the future of the competitions rookies; but with the aid of Break-evens, we can gain a decent idea of when Premiums will be at their most ripened. Here’s a short list of players that I have firmly entrenched on my radar – note that they are all players we’d have considered in our sides last season:

Premium Forecast - R4

I’m pretty happy with my rucks (Cox and Leuenberger) at the moment, so these are the guns I’m looking at for upgrades across the other areas of my ground. Of the players that will be ripe this week, I really like the look of Birchall, even though he’s $96k more expensive than Hartlett. Hamish is likely to have a tougher time against stronger sides, whereas the Hawks have had a contrastingly tougher run so far, so it can only get easier for Birch. Plus, Birchall has been simply incredible.

After this week, Daisy Thomas is a high-priority addition. In two or three weeks, his price will be down around $400k, which he’ll obviously outperform when fit. Thank you Bucks and a vested 35 last week for that!

Which fallen premiums are you looking at bringing in over the next month? What issues are your side facing in Round 5? Let us know in the comments!

Until next week.

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251 Comments

  • Have I missed something with Currie being a certain non starter Tbetta?. Daw might be out this week with concussion issues which could open the door for Currie or is he on the rookie list?. Doesn’t matter too much for me put the big C on John Patton for the loophole.

    • How long you keeping Patton for??

      • Trying to get rid of him ASAP but I have 3 rookie defenders on ground to deal with first. Hopefully 2-3 weeks he will be upgraded, my fwds are pretty safe at the moment

        • Fair call then.

        • Get patton out asap for a rookie who will generate you cash. he’s a waste of space on the bench not earning money or points ! the 3 rookie defenders will be making you money at least ..

    • maaaaate, Patton. Out. Now.

  • Guys need help here. I really really need your thoughts? I have decided to trade out JPK but i am on limited budget so cant pick stanton or k.cornes. So i can only pick between murphy, J.selwood or boak ? who should i pick guys ?

    • What about a cash cow for now ie. Mullett, Evans, Duryea etc.

    • I think Murphy. Fixtures improving, good score last round, price ready to improve.

    • I reckon Murphy too. Got 116 or something with the Selwood tag and that was with 4 FA. He got something like 9 tackles too so Carlton don’t have to have the ball all the time for him to be scoring

    • Boak for Brownlow

      Mate boak for brown low. Nuff said.

    • Stick with JPK because he can’t drop much more in price, and being a good player will more then likely bounce back. for trade 2 either upgrade a rookie to premium or if you don’t have enough cash bring in a player on bubble probably Mayes.

  • alright what do u guys think of these trades

    golby to terlich
    mithcell to mayes

    thoughts???????

  • hanley strike on the oscar nominee, i would appeal for sure. what is the AFL coming too, soft. vision was inconclusive.

  • also how does the vc loop hole work

    • Partial lockout of 4 teams on thursday, so you put your VC on a player you think will go well. Put your C on a player from one of the other 14 teams that you think won’t play. If your VC gets a good score all’s well and do nothing. If he does bad then move your C to a premo from the remaining 14 teams.
      E.G. VC on Swan (C on someone not going to play such as Patton), and he gets 170, no need to do anything. But if he gets 70 then move the C to Ablett and hope for the best.

      • cool thanks

        • just remember – it only works if you have non-playing players…I can see a few coaches this weekend will stuff up the loophole

          because a lot of us have fully playing squads

          • I understand how it works and have Kommer on field with the C … but can someone explain why it has to be a non-scoring player with the C ?

    • Don’t forget to put an Emergency in that same position as the non playing player to avoid a doughnut

  • this week my trade option is to
    1- secure more $$ with trading kommer and plowman
    or
    2- securing birchall and trading whitfield to evans

    downside of option 2 is that i am only left with 1k in the bank…. where as option 1 i would have >200k for multiple upgrade in later weeks.

    hmmmm what to do

    • I’m faced with a similar choice, and I am getting Birchall. Is looking great, in a solid team, with fixtures improving. Plus Birch projected to increase $24k to Whifield’s $15k. Gotta be a win.

      • Since Birchall’s a keeper, how much he rises this week is irrelevant if you get him: what matters is how much you pay. If he averages 110 for the year then his average price will be around $560k so you should be able to pick him up for $550 at some stage. If he only averages 105 then you should be able to get him for $525k. In the first case you’ll save around $20k by getting him now and in the second you’ll save less than $10k. Compare this to Whitfield’s expected gain of $40k in the next 2 weeks. If you’re interested in cash maximisation, don’t get Birchall (but by all means get him now for points).

        • We’re talking 30k more cash by keeping whitfield and that’s relying on Birch scoring poorly AND whitfield scoring 80+.. too many factors for 30k I believe, plus evans will generate cash anyway and Birch is a player you are going to want down the track so may as well bring him in now just in case he does go up to 560k and whitfield scores 2×60’s and doesn’t increase..

  • will viney or k.stevens be better to downgrade to evans

    • Projected increases are similar, but Viney has a better fixture. I think either could go based on whether you need more cash straight away for an upgrade.

      • Similar increase for the next 2 weeks, but if you end up holding one for longer, Viney’s projected to increase by much more in the third week (as his 18 falls out of calculation). Also, similar scores likely. Reasons to hold Stevens are his greater consistency and if you fear a vest for Viney (which is possible after his ordinary performance on the weekend).

        • +1 . depends if they are playing on field. in that case keep stevens. if they are cash cows on bench keep viney

  • The Butcher

    should i trade bartel to cloke?

  • Thoughts on Shaun Burgoyne ?

    • Playing well presently, but won’t bust out 100’s consistently. Not for me at his price.

    • In his last 2 games he has been above his normal scoring ability, I wouldn’t expect him to be able to keep it up. His average is usually around the 70 to 75 mark, give or take.

    • Modern Marvels

      Stay away, when Sewell returns he wont be scoring those numbers.

  • Stevens to Evans and Viney to Mayes. Leaves me with $316,200.
    or,
    Dusty to Mayes and Stevens to Stanton. Leaves me with $126,900.

    • Number 1 for me. Good upgrade cash for next week. 2 feels a bit sideways (effectively Dusty to Stanton).

      • +1 definitely first option. Cash generation will allow you to upgrade a rookie to Stanton in future and keep dusty

  • If anyone is looking to get off a rookie defender for some cash, then I think Vlastuin is almost certain to play this week. Morris is out suspended and it would be somewhat of a like for like. Problem is Hardwick seems to love having a small defender as sub (read Ellis) so Vlastuin is a big chance for green. Still a viable option

    • Think I’d go Docherty first if he’s named. Has played 1 already, so slightly less risky.

      • Point of difference, I want to get the two in later on for bench support but so I can get some extra change from the downgrades Ill make for future upgrades

    • I’d be looking at Vlastuin as a trade-in in 2 weeks time after he’s played 2 decent games. he’s on my watchlist at this stage. no point trading out a cash cow for Vlas when he isn’t going to start making money for another few weeks…

  • great article man table was really useful :)

  • Have gone Viney => Evans
    Blicavs => Stokes switching Rowe from forwards to rucks
    Firstly is it more worthwhile going Viney => Mayes
    and whats everyones thoughts on stokes I think he might push to be one of the top forwards by seasons end

    • I think Mayes is better, but if you don’t necessarily have to play him, then Evans should be fine and bank the $50k.
      Stokes is a little to hot/cold for my liking, I don’t think he’ll be top 6.

  • Viney to Evans
    Zorko to Mayes

    795k now banked ready to upgrade next week.

  • “…it might be excessive to engineer another two rookie grabs this week, because not only are you sacrificing points while you’re not upgrading, you’re also not utilising any money sitting on your bench.”

    Hi tbetta. I respectfully disagree with you on this point. While I have agreed with your strategic outlook thus far this season, on this point I think you may have got it wrong (although in your defence, you still outline the upside to the strategy).

    Getting both Evans & Mayes this week is crucial I feel as we’re not going to have many more rookies get blooded from here on in. The only one that comes to my mind is Daw (who most have already) and Sentanta O’Halpin (nuff said!). Not only that, but I think strategy aside, both rookies are locked in cash cows who no one would argue with in most circumstances. Cash sitting in bank isn’t ideal, but when you’re making 2 trades a week you’ll burn it soon enough. I myself am going:

    JPK -> Evans
    Kreuzer -> Mayes (via DPP)

    Fielding 3 rookie mids and putting my bank to a total of $1 million. But next week, I’ll do:

    Moloney -> premium
    Viney -> premium

    And be back to fielding only 2 rookie mids. And still probably have $500k in bank – but most importantly – the best cash cows when rookie season is surely drying up soon.

    Good luck with whatever you choose to do this week. Cheers.

    p.s – I wasn’t sure how to interpret what you were saying, but you can reverse trade at the moment, just not before Friday’s lockout.

    • There’s nothing wrong with either strategy. Yours may drop you a few places on the leaderboard behind guys upgrading already, but longer term is fine.

      • That’s the strategy I’m going to employ, looking to bank as much money as possible while the rookies are available. I may drop back a few places now but should make them up plus more once the early upgraders start running out of cash later on. Hopefully it will work like that anyway!
        Thanks for the table too, a great way of seeing what premos are getting ripe for the picking!

    • First of all. Why do you still have Kreuzer? Shouldn’t you have offloaded him last week? Second of all… You’d be surprised how many teams are fielding 3 rookie mids.

      I do agree with you about Evans and Mayes, I think it is a good idea to get them in, there won’t be too many options like them coming up anymore.

      I personally think I will be going Kitchell to Mayes and Viney to Evans. Leaving Kommer on my bench (who still has a negative BE).

      • I think he must have a couple more than average rooks on the field given his $1m in the bank. After trades this week I’ll have nearly that much and will have 9 rooks on field.

        • Only 8 rookies on field for me, and they’re all pretty good, namely:

          Goodes, Terlich, 1 of 3 Port rookies
          Wines, O’Meara, Evans
          Dwyer, Neade

          Ruck line is Cox & Leuenberger with rookies on bench.

          Next week I’ll very likely upgrade Viney, leaving me with only 7 rookies on field. I’ve missed out on Crouch so both Mayes & Evans are crucial trades for myself, but everyone is in a different situation.

          • I have 6 rookies on field (wines and goodes hardly rookies), 150k in the bank. My bench is full of cash cows also. If you believe setanta and daw are the only future cash cows you havn’t done your research as I have Gawn, Docherty, T Smith, Kerridge (1 gamers) also on the watchlist, as well as Vlastuin and Josh Saunders.

            Having 9 rookies for cash generation is great, but your missing points and I believe there is enough cash generation left in current cash cows, as well as a few future cows to allow you to eventually bring in all the premiums. I only have 4 more upgrades before I have a full squad and start fine tuning (goodes and wines will stay in my squad).
            My current cash cows (mayes, terlich, O’Meara, Stevenson, frost, jones, dwyer, blicavs, daw, neade, macaffer, kommer) should comfortably make me roughly 700k in the next 3 weeks, that’s not including frost because who knows if he’ll get a game, and not including kommer, and allowing for less then what the rest are projected to make… as long as im not struck with injuries etc, should very comfortably trade in 4 prem’s in double swaps the next 4 weeks and have a full squad by round 9. should still have 4 of my current cash cows on the bench, and additionally hopefully the likes of Docherty, kerridge, vlastuin, saunders, gawn etc as new cash cows…

            I don’t see a huge need for cash generation at this stage, if you got your rookies right at the start of the season there should be more then enough funds. You also need to remember there is a balance between cash and points, no point having the best team at the end of the season if you didn’t make finals because of a slow start …..

            ps.. why ditch jpk when he has pretty much bottomed out in price, he had 1 bad week and will most likely bounce back with scores. he’s not going to lose you more money unless he continues to score 60’s which most likely won’t be the case.. I understand trading him out for evans’ cash generation, but it’s most likely at the sacrifice of points. you have 8 rookies on field and im guessing 8 more on bench, wines and goodes will stay so only need 6 more prem upgrades.. plently of cash generation there to last the season. dwyer and neade are both chances for the sub, cash generation is good but really you want to get all the rookies off field asap to keep up with the points.

          • 260k in salary cap, not 150k

          • Gawn needs to keep his spot (81 v GWS is only against GWS), Vlastuin needs to avoid the vest, as does Docherty (although his chances have improved slightly with Rich being injured, moves Adcock into the midfield?).

            Slim pickings in my book… Mayes is more locked with Rich’s injury and Evans is easy cash, I’m still getting both and upgrading Viney & Neade next week.

          • p.s – Ditching JPK because if he does continue to score 60s he’ll go down to $300k..! I don’t rate him as a top 10 midfielder so he’s got to get the chop, 1 ton in 4 isn’t good enough. Plus someone has to go for Evans :P

      • I felt I had to ditch Zorko last week to prevent him leaking anymore cash. Embley out was my other trade. It wasn’t ideal, but then again isn’t sitting an injured player on the bench for a week the same as carrying $300-400k in your bank for a week..?

        Nice trades, by the way (although I would ask you the same question about not trading Mitchell or Kommer earlier – negative b/e or not, he’s making no cash for 3 weeks, not good).

  • H.shaw -> birchall
    Viney -> Mayes

    Still have curry for this week, but nervous leaving the VC on swan, anyone think currie could play as daw had a concussion ?

    • Unlikely, but possible. My only non-player is a Swan so I won’t use it anyway, but seems an unnecessary risk.

      • Just grateful I had other priorities in my team the past two weeks to fix up before getting Longer out…now to use the VC loophole without any worries.

  • I would like it if either Mayes or Evans weren’t named so it could make the decision easy for me :/

  • I am struggling to decide between a few trades this week…
    Options:
    1. Varcoe & Karnezis to Mayes & Evans
    2. Varcoe to Mayes/Evans & Jacobs/Grimes to Minson/Birchall
    Thoughts?

    • I think I would go Varcoe to Evans (if you don’t have to play him) and Jacobs to Birchall (if your bank allows). If that’s not possible, then option 1 looks fine.

      • This is Sam Jacobs mate hahah you can’t go a Ruckman into a Defender

        • Ah, was thinking Ben Jacobs seeing he was grouped with Grimes, missed the Minson reference. I wouldn’t be trading Sam, no.

    • chasing points or cash?

      • Without making any trades this week, I have 200k in the kitty, I think I need a bit more to make a couple of solid upgrades next week.
        I will probably make one cash based trade and one points based trade depending on my options.

        • Varcoe -> Mayes, Defnitly try and get Birchall in, got an easy run coming up and averaging 120 against 4 good sides.. Grimes is a keeper too though any worse defenders you can upgrade ? whos in your backline ?

    • Yuck, where did option 2 come from – Will Minson?! Option 1 for sure, unless Karnezis plays this week (after 30 possessions in the reserves), then maybe Grimes -> Birchall. But option 1 gets you the best rookies, which is crucial at this stage I reckon.

  • Thanks Tbetta for another comprehensive Bullets. Your write ups always get me to have a pretty good look at what I’ve been thinking since lockout ended! In this instance, I think Birch is the man.

  • Planning on making the following trades:

    Patton > Mayes
    Hanley > Birchall

    Was planning to trade out Robinson for Cloke, but with Hanley out it becomes a no-brainer.
    Hopefully Viney pumps out an 80+ to keep his cash generation rolling, would like to drop Heath for Docherty and look to bring in (maybe) Daisy or some other forward for Robinson next week

  • Who to trade for Ablett
    Swan,Cotchin,Sloane,Fyfe,Jack,Moloney

  • I have already traded
    Viney / Evans

    Option #1
    Bartel / Cloke

    Option #2
    Stevenson / Birchall

    Option #3
    Neade / Mayes

    Pick one thanks :)

  • Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Crouch, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw)

    Bartel, Rockliff, Westhoff, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    16k remaining

    Thoughts/Advice on trades to make??? Thanks in advance
    I was looking at possibly getting Mitchell, Viney or Robinson OUT I have no idea how I’m going to get birchall

    • Really depends on how much you have in the bank. Get Mayes for Robinson then upgrade one of your rookie defenders to Birchall.

  • Who should I get out of Jelwood and Marc Murphy?

  • how much money will i want in the bank before i start upgrading probably next week

  • Thanks Tbetta. A great article as always – I am in the awkward position of having a full team, so unless Majak has a concussion week off I will not be able to use the Captain’s loophole (trademark Calvin).

    And I’ll pass on the thanks for all the people who forgot to and have just used this article to sort out their trade problems.

  • Ok for the vc loop hole, i had all scores on my field this week, so im wondering if i should put someone like K.Mitchell who wont play, onto the field, just for the loop hole. or should i just put my captain as a premo.

    • I dont have swan so pendles would be the best option for the possible vc

      • If you don’t do this, would you be ditching Kitchell out of your team this week?

        Not sure if Pendles is an option worth jeopardising traing structure for as he is consistent but won’t punch out a score worthy of the loophole

  • because im a noob and obviously a bit special could someone please fully explain the captain loophole as i still dont get it. explain it as if the person listening has brain damage k thanks!

    • Ok.

      Pick someone as VC playing this Thurs, everyone is doing this for Swan.
      Pick someone in your team as C (who is not playing Thurs) and IS NOT playing on the weekend (eg Kommer, Currie).

      Let’s say Swan smashes out 150.
      To make that your C score, leave the C on Kommer or Currie. since they’re not playing, the VC will be doubled. Make sure you have an emergency to cover.

      If Swan only scores 100 (say).
      Simply choose some other premo as C (eg. Ablett), put Currie or Kommer back on your bench

      Hope that helps!

      • Actually ignore Kommer as an example, Ess is playing on Thurs. sorry!

      • awesome think i understand now. only problem is does anyone else not have anyone who isnt playing this weekend or thurs?

        • Probably the most common will be Kitchell and Currie… Otherwise, someone who got injured who people are holding onto… Only person I had not playing was Kommer so I’m out. Swan will be locked as my captain though either way

  • As always, the best articles and best eyebrows in the business.

  • SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE VICE CAPTAIN/CAPTAIN “LOOP HOLE”

  • Am I best to get in 2 rookies about to burst for Viney/Kommer/Frost/Macaffer? Or should I ditch underperforming Premos (Maric/Shaw) before they lose anymore money and get in Cloak and do 1 of the rookie trades?

  • This is my team:
    DEF: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, H.Shaw, B.Goodes, Terlich (Stevenson, Pittard)
    MID: Swan, Thompson, S.Mitchell, J.Selwood, O’Keefe, Wines, O’Meara, Crouch (Viney, Kommer)
    RUC: Cox, Leuenberger (Rowe, Blicavs)
    FWD: Franklin, Bartel, JJK, Rockliff, Blair, Neade (Dwyer, Macaffer)

    Looking to trade Viney to Evans and Kommer to Mayes.
    Could also trade Blair to Chapman and keep Kommer an extra week but then would miss out on Mayes. Thoughts?

  • Great article Tbetta. A lot of us are in this trade problem right now (Mayes Evans etc).
    Thanks for shedding some light on the situation.
    Hardest decision this week for me is to trade in both rookies or upgrade JPK to a super premium. A potential $70k rise for a rookie isn’t something I really want to miss..

  • Can someone tell me what is happening with the thursday games ?? Is the AFL releasing the teams on wednesday night ??

    And also is there going to be partial lockout?

  • Heppell – Gibbs – Goddard
    Goodes – Pittard – Stevenson (Heath, Vlastuin)

    Swan – Pendlebury – Murphy – Dangerfield
    JPK – Rockliff – Wines – Crouch (Viney, O’Meara)

    Cox – Leuenberger (Blicavs, Daw)

    Buddy – N.Roo – JJK
    Westhoff – Dwyer – Rowe (Karnezis,Macaffer)

    I scored 2182 last week and Ive got 66k in the bank at the moment.

    Ive locked in the trade from karnezis -> mayes as planned, but Im not sure about the 2nd trade.

    Either
    JPK -> Birchall/GAJ/Cornes/Stanton/Hartlett
    Viney -> Evans
    Or Vlastuin -> Terlich (Could hold off this trade and trade vlaustin to docherty next week on the bubble)

  • Mayes in for neade, evans in for viney, how do they sound?

  • Team is as follows. What trades should be made??

    DEF: Heppell, Goddard, Gibbs, Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson (Terlich, Heath)
    MID: Ablett, Swan, Pendelbury, Fyfe, Hodge, SWines, Crouch, O’meara (Stevens, Viney)
    RUC: Jacobs, Luenberger (Currie, Blicavs)
    FWD: Westhoff, Bartel, Rockliff, Cox,Kennedy, Rowe (Neade, Macaffer)

    $289,900 in the bank.

    Thoughts were trading luenberger to mayes (cox into the ruck) and then stevenson to birchall

  • I have already traded
    Viney / Evans

    Option #1
    Bartel / Cloke (make 40-50k)

    Option #2
    Stevenson / Birchall (make nothing / higher score)

    Option #3
    Neade / Mayes (make 40-50k)

    Pick one thanks :)

    • Damo

      Depends on what youre going for, points or money.

      If you’re going for points, then 2 easy, but if you’re going for cash then 3 because Mayes’s price will go up for next few weeks as long as he is playing.

  • Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Crouch, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw)

    Bartel, Rockliff, Westhoff, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    16k remaining

    Thoughts/Advice on trades to make??? Thanks in advance
    I was looking at possibly getting Mitchell, Viney or Robinson OUT Possibly Evans, Mayes etc IN

  • Trade 1:
    Kommer/Viney -> Evans/Mayes
    Kommer/Viney/Neade/Macaffer -> Mayes

    Trade 2:
    Kieran Jack -> Dane Swan
    Stevenson/Heath -> Birchall (leaning towards Stevenson)

    Which options sound best? and which player OUT where theres multiple options? Im not sure who is the priority to get rid of between Viney/Kommer