Jai Newcombe – Deck of DT 2024

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Why should I pick him?

Well, I’m not saying he SHOULD be picked per se. I am strongly suggesting he should be on your shortlist and considered. We significantly underestimate how much things change from year to year with regards to the top scorers. It is very easy to get caught into the trap of presuming that player rankings will remain very similar to the prior year, yet in reality things change wildly. Whilst we think we are playing it safe coughing up for a 950k mid, we are in fact taking a significant risk given history shows that the vast majority of top end mids usually regress, often significantly, the following year.

What we should be trying to do instead is finding players with an asymmetric risk reward profile. Players whose downside is limited but whose upside is significant. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the less upside a player has and as such it can be very tricky finding substantial upside in players who are already priced around the 95 mark. When young mids breakout, they often do so to an extent that surprises us. A year ago very few folks thought Dawson would be the 3rd highest ave mid, or that Gulden and Green would rank 6th and 7th and Serong would be the 11th highest ave mid. Whilst Gulden, Green and Serong were prime breakout contenders that were discussed at length during the preseason, I’d argue all surpassed expectations.

This brings us to Jai ‘Duke’ Newcombe. It is easy to forget that Newcombe has barely played 50 games. He arrived as a ‘mid-season draftee’ back in 2021 and proceeded to break the record for most tackles by a debutant. He has subsequently blossomed into a relatively well-rounded fantasy midfielder. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to view Newcombe as a player entering his 3rd year, whilst this is technically false, it’s true from the point of view that he’s currently completing his 3rd AFL pre-season and so much about developing into an elite fantasy midfielder is building that tank and body to withstand the rigours of an AFL season, from start to finish.

The beauty of Newcombe is that we don’t really need to worry about his role. He’s locked in as one of Hawthorn’s inside mids having attended 70% of CBA’s in 2023. Ideally, we’ll see this push the 75-80% range however I think that is unlikely given the other players Hawthorn like to rotate through there as well as players they will be looking to develop.

Averaging 25 touches, 4+ marks, 4+ tackles in essentially your 2nd season is no common feat. Below is a list, courtesy of Jaiden Popowski, that lists all players to have achieved that statistical mark in a season where they had not yet played their 50th game. Newcombe shares the list with a number of players that went on to be fantasy royalty thereafter.

The question is, will he be a Seb Ross or a Tom Mitchell?

Having the game to accumulate touches, get on the outside for a +6 but also the willingness to lay a tackle at a high clip allows for a variety of scoring avenues, and when it all comes together, can result in large scores.

At his young age we should expect to see Newcombe continue to develop and as such should expect to see a bump in his numbers across the board as his midfield craft improves. He had 5 games of 30+ touches including a 40 possession game in round 22, highlighting his ability to accumulate at such a young age. To push his average towards that 105+ mark, we’ll need to see these types of games become a regular occurrence.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

We may be correct that Newcombe one day becomes a 105+ppg mid, the question that matters is will it happen this year? Being too early is as good as being wrong.

My main concern with Newcombe is his poor K:H ratio. It means there are games where he may get a lot of touches but not capitalise with a big fantasy score, and indeed we saw this on multiple occasions in 2023. Two examples were in Round 18 and 19.

Rd 18: 9K. 24HB. 6M. 3T for 92. Though had 5FA

Rd 19: 7K: 23HB. 4M. 2T. For 93

To take that next step in fantasy, Newcombe needs to be turning those 30+ touches games into 110+ scores. If his K:Hb ratio can revert to his 2022 ratio that will go a long way to boosting his scores and improving his points per minute numbers. In 2023, games where Jai had at least 10 kicks, he averaged 107. It is possible to go 105+ with a poor K:Hb ratio. Clayton Oliver, Tom Mitchell and Rory Laird being examples of those that have done it previously and Tom Green a more recent example, it just means the disposal average needs to exceed 30, a tough feat to accomplish.

Priced at 93, he’s in a particularly awkward bracket. To justify the selection, we’d be wanting an average of at least 100ppg, and ideally pushing that 105+ mark. Last year we had a veritable smorgasbord of young midfield breakout candidates to choose from, they were all priced at a slightly cheaper price point though meaning their risk-reward profile was much more favourable. This year are we better off saving money elsewhere and spending up for a bit more of a known quantity? Walsh is not that much more expensive, though has the early bye. Steele and J.Kelly are only 40k more. Guthrie is 80k cheaper and may match Newcombe.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

Jai is not a slam dunk selection at this point, hence the JACK rating. He is not an obvious ‘value’ pick, and he is at an awkward price point such that you need to have confidence that he will emerge as one of 2024’s premium fantasy midfielders to justify a starting selection on him.

Follow Vams on X via @mryellowtbuk.

Vams