Max Gawn – Deck of DT 2022

Name: Max Gawn
Team: Melbourne
Position: RUC
Price: $911,000
Bye round: 14
2021 average: 108.5
2021 games played: 22
Predicted average: 105-110
Draft range: Top 2 ruck

Click here for 2022 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

A proven strategy implemented by past winners and successful AFL Fantasy coaches is to set and forget your rucks. Although it may be tempting to find value, we need to ask ourselves the question of just how much value a trade is? For the last few seasons, Grundy and Gawn have by far been the dominant AFL Fantasy ruckman in the comp, with these value options giving up way too many points to the big dogs. This means we end up using multiple trades in the ruck department, for which options are often limited. Take Warnie last season for example (Sorry Warnie). After starting Flynn, everything was great in the early rounds until he was dropped. Having not made enough coin, it was either sideways a premium in another line to get Gawn, or find someone else in the rucks. Warnie then proceeded to trade in ROB, then Zac Smith and then finally Gawn. Not only did ROB lose money and Smith not gain any, the four trades burnt in this line were trades he was unable to use to upgrade and make the rest of his team better. Now we know, an optimal starting strategy is to make sure we find value in all of our starting premiums. I’m here to tell you that in the ruck department, this doesn’t always have to be the case due to the limited options we have available if things go wrong. In 2021, I started Grundy and Gawn and still came 2nd in the comp. Gawn may have dropped in price, but he was still the number 1 ruck and not having the head ache of making unnecessary trades in the ruck department paid off handsomely. In 2022, we have the luxury of picking Gawn when he is not as over priced as he was in 2021.

Currently sitting in 19% of teams, let us not forget just how good this guy is at football and Fantasy Football. These are his averages over the last 4 years: 111.3, 111.2, 123.6(adjusted) and 108.5. If this doesn’t paint a picture of elite consistency then I don’t know what does. In this years finals series alone, he had scores of 135, 145 and 101. These scores are nuts. All the talk in the pre season is that Luke Jackson is going to take away too many ruck minutes from Gawn and he will regress. Although I believe they will keep developing Jackson, I do not believe it will affect Gawn’s Fantasy output too much. Melbourne have just won the flag and are on the brink of Dynasty territory. Their side is still young and developing and I believe still have some of their best footy ahead of them. Max Gawn is the captain of this footy club and has been leading by elite example for years now. AFL clubs are in the business of winning premierships and Melbourne are right in the hunt to add a few more. They will be playing their best players in their best positions, no doubt about it. In Richmond’s dynasty years, was Cotchin moved out of the middle so that their younger guys could develop? Absolutely not. Competition for spots is the mark of a strong AFL club and Gawn is not moving from the number 1 ruck spot this season. He will be a top 2 ruck by seasons end, so you may as well start him and throw away the key.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

If you are a fan of the set and forget model and still like to find some value in the ruck, then there are some viable options this season. ROB priced at 86 went at 95 in the back half of the season and will likely score around that mark again. Darcy showed glimpses last year and many believe he will crack the 100 mark this season. Even guys like Preuss or Lynch present value if all goes right for them and they are given the number 1 ruck role. If you believe the narrative that Gawn will regress and one of these guys will break out and bridge the gap, then there is merit in fading Gawn at the start of the season as long as the money saved is used properly elsewhere. Just be prepared to go the entire season without owning him. Another consideration is the round 14 bye, with Grundy, Darcy and Gawn all sharing this round. Without a rookie R3 playing, you hamstring yourself to only having 20 available players that round, which can open you up to trouble.

Lastly, we have to talk about the grand final in which Jackson showed a lot of promise in the 3rd quarter, turning the game for Melbourne in a dominant display in the middle. Many believe that because of this, Jackson will feature more heavily in there next year and Gawn will be on the outer. Personally, I like to look at trends over seasons or multiple games and not just a half of footy. The trend says that Gawn has averaged over 108 in his last 4 seasons and Jackson dominated for a quarter of footy. But even so, if you believe the narrative of Jackson taking more minutes, it will further confirm your bias.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE

Gawn currently sits in my side and it is a blessing that only 19% of coaches are on board. On a high after just winning the flag, I believe he will come out hot like he usually does, setting the standard as captain. This will allow me to not waste trades in the ruck department, when inevitably things go wrong in the early rounds like they always do. Every year we say to set and forget our rucks, but coaches never do. Is this finally the year?

If you guys have any pre season questions at all, make sure to hit me up on my Twitter @holmesyheroes or comment below and I will answer them there.

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