Weekend Forecast – Round 20

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

 

It’s that time of year again! Fantasy finals are here and hopefully you made it and were able to finish in the top 4, and get the double chance. If not, just enjoy the last 4 weeks we have left of the season (if you can). It has been a long year for many, but hopefully Grand Final glory can help end the fantasy season on a high!

 

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

St Kilda vs Carlton @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, partly cloudy (Roof will be closed)

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Hunter Clark, Jack Higgins, Tom Highmore, Rowan Marshall

OUT

Oscar Clavarino (Omitted), Nick Coffield (Omitted), Paul Hunter (Omitted), Cooper Sharman (Omitted), Jack Sinclair (Injured)

Carlton

IN

Charlie Curnow, Josh Honey, Harry McKay, Lochie O’Brien

OUT

Eddie Betts (Injured), Matthew Cottrell (Omitted), Marc Murphy (Medi-Sub), Sam Petrevski-Seton (Omitted), Zac Williams (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Rowan Marshall

Probably the best underpriced option this week, especially with the Scott Pendlebury injury many people have to deal with, and by getting Marshall, you actually make 16k. In his last game in round 18, he had his biggest game of the season with 122 points, and rumours are circling that Paddy Ryder may miss the game tonight. If so, that is even more incentive, but Marshall could finish with a bang in the last 4 weeks of the season.

Hunter Clark

An underpriced option I am keeping my eyes on. Still has a breakeven of 132, but if we see something tonight, could become an interesting option, especially for those coaches like myself who may be playing a Bianco, Stocker, etc on field and don’t have a heap of money to upgrade. Will be priced just over 500k next week, and even though he wasn’t amazing over the first 13 rounds, we know Hunter Clark is better than a 500k player.

Sam Walsh

I am hoping for a big bounce back week from Walshy! Brought him in last week hoping to see a big game, but that was not to be. Hopefully I didn’t curse him like I did with Oliver back in round 12. Could he get a tag from Dunstan or Steele? Potentially but I don’t think many players can run with Walsh.

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide @ Mars Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, cloudy and rain expected (96% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Josh Dunkley, Easton Wood

OUT

Taylor Duryea (Managed), Alex Keath (Injured), Ed Richards (Injured)

Adelaide

IN

Nick Murray, James Rowe

OUT

Billy Frampton (Omitted), David Mackay (Medi-Sub), Lachlan Sholl (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Josh Dunkley

Could you bring him in for over 800k? He has been great this season when he has played, and is only owned by 9.7%. Nice POD for the end of the season.

Jack Macrae

Is he back? Macrae’s 138 last week was his first score over 100 since round 15. If you look closer as well, even though he has been good this season, only has 4 scores over 120 this year. In saying that, against Adelaide this week, I expect his 5th 120+ score to come, and you may have the luxury of putting him VC to see how he goes.

Rory Laird

Mr Consistent, Lairdy has now 9 of his last 10 scores over 115, with a season high 142 last week (wish I followed my gut and put the C on him). Putting the C on him this week could be risky, as we know the Western Bulldogs are really tough for mids to scores against (though Oliver and Petracca both went 126 last week). Not a bad VC option, as he has been amazing this season.

Harry Schoenberg

A sneaky underpriced option with a role change. Since round 17 where he ran with Darcy Parish, Schoenberg’s scores are 83, 113 and 96. With only a breakeven of 28, could rise up to 600k really quickly and help as a stepping stone for coaches looking to get their final rookies off their fields.

 

North Melbourne vs Geelong @ Blundstone Arena

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, showers expected (68% chance of rain

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Eddie Ford, Jack Mahony, Robbie Tarrant

OUT

Shaun Atley (Omitted), Ben Cunnington (Managed), Tarryn Thomas (Injured), Cameron Zurhaar (Injured)

Geelong

IN

Shaun Higgins

OUT

Lachie Henderson (Injured), Gryan Miers (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Aaron Hall

How good has Aaron Hall been this year? He is averaging 105.4 this year, and that includes a game where he was sub, and another where he was concussed. Take those 2 games out, he is averaging 117.1 this year! That would be only behind Touk Miller, Jack Steele and the same average as Jack Macrae. Geelong have been really tough for defenders to score against this year, so it is a risky play to make him C or VC this week.

Isaac Smith

Really underrated option in the forward line I hear no one talking about. He has been one of the most consistent players this season, scoring 90+ in 12 of his 18 games, with only 1 score under 70 for the year. At 654k, could be a nice addition for that last spot of one of the last spots in your forward line.

 

Gold Coast vs Melbourne @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 22°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Gold Coast

IN

Jy Farrar, Joel Jeffrey (Debut), Darcy MacPherson, Zac Smith

OUT

Rory Atkins (Omitted), Will Brodie (Medi-Sub), Caleb Graham (Omitted), Oleg Markov (Injured), Izak Rankine (Omitted)

Melbourne

IN

Jake Bowey (Debut)

OUT

Michael Hibberd (Omitted), James Jordon (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jeremy Sharp

Could you bring him in? At 474k? I don’t think it is crazy at all, especially with back to back scores of 123 and 112, and a breakeven of -3. I have contemplating bringing him in this week.

Joel Jeffrey

A debutant who kicked 9 goals last week! Jeffrey is a 170k defender but has been playing forward. At this stage of the year, 170k guys that play are great for us to put on our benches as an emergency and make as much coin as possible to get the best players.

Brayden Fiorini

Very intriguing option at 724k is Fiorini. Now has 4 tons in a row with a season high 142 last week. We know what he is capable of, and with a breakeven of 58, could shoot up to 800k in no time for you to either keep him for the rest of the year as he is cheap for what he candy, or could be that stepping stone to get a Touk Miller, Jack Steele, Tom Mitchell player over 850k.

Max Gawn

Both great captain choices this week and should be big. Even though Zac Smith is back in the side, I still expect Gawny to monster him. Has 56 hitouts last week, and played 90%+ ruck time. Is this going to be the norm for the last 4 weeks as Melbourne prepare for finals?

Clayton Oliver

Oliver is back after his little form slump between rounds 12 and 17 where he only had 1 ton (a 104). Now he has back to back 126’s and should be good once again against the Suns this week, and still a great option to bring in at 775k.

 

Collingwood vs West Coast @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, mostly cloudy with light rain (90% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jeremy Howe, Chris Mayne, Josh Thomas

OUT

Mason Cox (Medi-Sub), Nathan Murphy (Omitted), Scott Pendlebury (Injured), Caleb Poulter (Omitted), Anton Tohill (Omitted)

West Coast

IN

Jack Petruccelle, Jack Redden

OUT

Jarrod Brander (Medi-Sub), Mark Hutchings (Omitted), Liam Ryan (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Steele Sidebottom

Sidey has been disappointing by his standards this season, only averaging 87.5 for the year when he usually averages 100+. Only averaging 76.8 in his last 5, but with Pendlebury out for the season, I expect him to play more time on ball for the final 4 weeks. And at 596k, very nicely priced, especially if you can’t get to a 700k+ option.

Finlay Macrae

Should be another beneficiary of Pendles being out for the remainder of the season, and looked good last week with a 71. At 224k, you can bring him on your bench and if you have another rookie to emergency loophole with him, that could be a play. The question though is do you pay the extra 54k for him on your bench, or just get a guy like Joel Jeffrey who is 170k and on your bench anyway?

Andrew Gaff

Similar to Sidebottom, you usually pencil in Gaff to average over 100, normally even a 110 average, but as we know, he has been poor this season, only averaging 98.1. Now priced at 675k and back to back scores of 114 and 113, I think the time is now to pounce. He is normally priced over 775k so you save yourself 100k and he could potentially average over 110 for the last 4 games. Being realistic, I think he averages 105 for the last 4 games which is still great for someone priced where he is.

 

Essendon vs Sydney @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, clear skies

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Dylan Clarke, Aaron Francis, Kyle Langford

OUT

Matt Guelfi (Medi-Sub), Brayden Ham (Omitted), Cale Hooker (Omitted), David Zaharakis (Omitted)

Sydney

IN

Harry Cunningham, Callum Mills

OUT

Hayden McLean (Medi-Sub), Ben Ronke (Omitted), James Rowbottom (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Durham

Same with Finlay Macrae, do you pay the extra 51k for Durham on your bench? The debate with Macrae and Durham is interesting, with only 3k difference between them. Macrae would have the higher scoring potential and better role, but Durham has the better breakeven of -8 compared to Macrae’s breakeven of 22.

Zach Merrett/Darcy Parish

Which one will get the Hewett tag? I honestly have no idea, but I expect at least 1, if not both to bounce back. Both were really poor last week, with Merrett scoring 64 and Parish 69. I wouldn’t captain either based on the tag, and being poor last week.

Callum Mills

Callum Mills finally returns after being a late withdrawal against GWS 2 weeks ago. He has been great this season, averaging 109.4 and challenging Laird for that no.1 defender spot. We have to enjoy Mills and Laird for the last 4 weeks as defenders as they are both going to be just MIDS in fantasy next season.

Jake Lloyd

Hasn’t been the same 105-110+ average from Lloyd this season, but he could average that over the final 4 week. Has a great matchup against the Bombers who love to give up marks. A lowest score of 90 in his last 4 as well, and he is also 185k cheaper than he was at the start of the season, and you only need 88k and some DPP flexibility to get him for Pendlebury.

 

Hawthorn vs Brisbane @ UTAS Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, mostly sunny

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Damon Greaves, Finn Maginness, Conor Nash, Jai Newcombe

OUT

James Cousins (Injured)

Brisbane

IN

Connor Ballenden, Keidean Coleman, Jaxon Prior

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Back at pig park, he could be massive this week and a great fall back captain option on Sunday. Brisbane have normally been tough to score on, but recent weeks have been easier. Last week, Fiorini 142, Touk 127, Sharp, 112, and Jack Steele a couple of weeks ago also went big with a 138.

Jarryd Lyons

One of the underrated players in fantasy this season, averaging a massive 113.8. Scored 136 last week and has 4 easy matchups to end the year, at 827k you are paying a lot, but I think it is worth it. Also, only owned by 5.8% of coaches! Could be a league winning differential.

 

GWS vs Port Adelaide @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 26°C, sunny

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

Jeremy Finlayson, Toby Greene, James Platlig (Debut), Zach Sproule

OUT

Adam Kennedy (Injured)

Port Adelaide

IN

Orazio Fantasia, Jarrod Lienert, Jed McEntee

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Whitfield

Came back last week for his biggest score of the season with a 132. Has Port this week which is a tougher matchup, but is a great option to bring in or bring back in for many coaches, and that show as he is the most popular traded in player this week.

Tim Taranto

Only attended 2 CBA’s out of a possible 19, with Josh Kelly attending 18 of the 19, and Brent Daniels going to 15 of the 19. I think he attends more CBA’s this week, as Callan Ward only attended 1 CBA last week and I think they just changed it up but it worked so who knows. Taranto is priced at 793k and has a breakeven of 150. If you have nothing to do any want to bring in a Jarryd Lyons, Clayton Oliver, or one of the 850k+ guys I think that is a play. You could even do Taranto down to a Lloyd, Marshall, Sidebottom or Isaac Smith and make over 100k to upgrade another position.

 

Fremantle vs Richmond @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 15°C, cloudy with showers (81% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Brett Bewley, Ethan Hughes, Nathan O’Driscoll (Debut), Josh Treacy, Tobe Watson, Joel Western

OUT

Nat Fyfe (Injured), Alex Pearce (Injured), Michael Walters (Injured)

Richmond

IN

Callum Coleman-Jones, Thomson Dow, Ben Miller (Debut), Dion Prestia

OUT

Marlion Pickett (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Caleb Serong

Could get a lot more mid time with Fyfe out for the year. Last week, he scored 94 while he went to 23 of the 26 CBA’s for Freo, and playing his most time on ground this season with 83% (normally low 70’s). At 545k, he is really cheap, and could be an option for coaches with not a lot of cash.

Dion Prestia

I don’t know if I could ever trust him as he always seems to get injured, but he is 550k and when he does play, he is normally a 100+ type guy. I would want to watch him for a week before bringing him in, but with a decent run home, you could maybe do it.

 

My Trades

Stocker/Jones -> Jeffrey

Pendlebury -> Lloyd

Simple downgrade upgrade (injury patchup as is the norm in 2021). Still undecided if I trade out Stocker or Jones. Jones is out for probably the rest of the season and isn’t making money even if he comes back, but Stocker is worth more money. If I keep Stocker, I can emergency loophole him with Bianco so I may do that. As for Pendles, I have thought about it a lot and I think I will be getting Lloyd. I have wanted Lloyd for a while, he’s underpriced and has a great matchup this week against the Bombers, but as I have mentioned many times, Sydney have a great run to finish the year. I have thought about guys like Marshall, Sidebottom, and even Harry Schoenberg and Jeremy Sharp but Lloyd is the better pick I think as we are at the pointy end of the season and you want to be getting guys you can rely on.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 20!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang