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The Season

Weekend Forecast – Round 19

Bails has the key info to know … and a live YouTube stream to help you out!

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Absolute carnage on the injury front, with many coaches needing more than the 2 trades this week to fix up their team. Dusty Martin, out for the season must trade, Callum Mills, Toby Greene and Rowan Marshall, late withdrawals due to covid exposure site at the Rugby, and Josh Kelly, who has been named, suffered an ankle injury and was subbed out last week. If you got through unscathed, you are one lucky coach.

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

Port Adelaide vs Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 7°C, cloudy (Roof should be closed)

Team Lineups

Port Adelaide

IN

Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee

OUT

Martin Frederick (Omitted), Jarrod Lienert (Omitted), Sam Mayes (Omitted), Jed McEntee (Omitted)

Collingwood

IN

Jack Ginnivan (Debut), Finlay Macrae, Anton Tohill (Debut)

OUT

Callum Brown (Injured), Will Hoskin-Elliot (Injured), Chris Mayne (Injured), Josh Thomas (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Travis Boak

Congrats to Travis Boak on game 300! What a consistent career he has had so far, and I think it won’t stop anytime soon. He is still performing at a high level each week. I honestly think he could play till he is 40.

Dan Houston

Now, Duursma coming back in and Lienert going out gives me a bit of hope that Houston bounces back this week. He has Collingwood as well, who we know give up points. Cmon Dan, we need a response!

Ollie Wines

Wines has been outstanding this year, and is definitely in the Brownlow discussion. I expect him to have a big game tonight against Collingwood, and is a great VC option to start the round.

Jack Ginnivan/Anton Tohill

Both Ginnivan and Tohill come into the Collingwood lineup to make their debuts tonight. I think Ginnivan is the better option out of the 2, not only have I heard more about him, but he also has the MID/FWD flexibility.

Jordan De Goey

De Goat has been on fire, with a 120 added last week. He has now only 1 score below 100 in his last 6 games, with 3 over 115. Has catapulted himself into a top 6 forward spot, and is probably the no.1 FWD based on form alone. Who would have thought that after the West Coast game?

Carlton vs North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, occasional light rain (75% chance of rain but roof should be closed)

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Patrick Cripps

OUT

Lachie Fogarty (Medi-Sub), Matthew Owies (Managed)

North Melbourne

IN

Jed Anderson, Ben Cunnington

OUT

Charlie Lazzaro (Omitted), Jack Mahony (Injured), Robbie Tarrant (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Walsh

Last week was the week I finally saw Sam Walsh move himself from premium to uber premium. He was finally able to crack the 150 mark, with a massive 155. Take out the De Boer tag affected game (which I think he learnt a lot from), he hasn’t gone below 120 since round 11, and hasn’t gone below 100 since round 8. Which is why without any unforeseen circumstances, I welcome Sam Walsh into my team this week.

Matt Kennedy

A great underpriced option still at 599k. 116 last week which was nice to see and has a breakeven of 57. Cripps coming back in may affect him a little, but I don’t think it will too much.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 22°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

Callum Ah Chee, Jarrod Berry

OUT

Thomas Berry (Medi-Sub), Keidean Coleman (Omitted), Jaxon Prior (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Oleg Markov

OUT

Brandon Ellis (Injured), Nick Holman (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Neale

Had another shoulder stinger in training during the week, and left the track early but the Lions say he should be all good for the game on Saturday. If I was an owner though, I would be concerned. He has had the shoulder issue since the Geelong game, along with the calf niggle from a couple of weeks ago. If you have no carnage and no real problems on your field, a sideways trade to Oliver, Guthrie, etc, it could be a play. Just a suggestion.

Touk Miller

He just continues to get it done, week in, week out. Hasn’t gone below 98 since round 3 (only score under 100 was the 98) and that includes some thumping scores of 140, 142, 130, 160, 130, 122, 141 and 155. If you own him, congrats, it must be a treat to watch him each week in your team. As for non owners like myself, you probably need to rob a bank to get even near him.

West Coast vs St Kilda @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Mark Hutchings, Josh Kennedy, Xavier O’Neill, Jake Waterman

OUT

Luke Edwards (Injured), Jackson Nelson (Medi-Sub), Jack Petruccelle (Injured), Luke Shuey (Injured), Bailey Williams (Omitted)

St Kilda

IN

Oscar Clavarino, Nick Coffield, Paul Hunter

OUT

Jack Bytel (Omitted), Tom Highmore (Injured), Rowan Marshall (Managed), Daniel McKenzie (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Shannon Hurn

A nice POD option in defence to bring in. Hurn has only gone under 93 on 2 occasions, a 77 and the other being the injury affected 6, but that is the only concern with Hurn, injury. At any moment, he could go down with a calf, hamstring injury. If not for that, would be a top 6 defender no question, so if you can handle that, great option.

Andrew Gaff

Can you believe Andrew Gaff is now priced at 658k? As an owner for the whole season I can, but he did look to turn it around last week with a 114, but it was against Adelaide. He now has a nice 4 game run with St Kilda, Collingwood, Melbourne and Fremantle. At 658k I think you can do much worse, but if this season is anything to go by, don’t be shocked if it is a rollercoaster.

Connor West

Showed promising signs last week, with a nice score of 76 and could be important bench cover this week, especially for Josh Kelly owners. Still a the best downgrade option to bring in this week, and job security for the time being looks good.

Jack Steele

Steele has been huge the last 7 weeks, 118, 137, 133, 114, 157, 138 and 149. Ridiculous numbers. In round 12 he was down at 791k, now he has shot up to being the most expensive player in the game at 945k. If only I started the year with him instead of Gaff…

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 10°C, cloudy with periods of light rain (75% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

James Harmes

OUT

Tom Sparrow (Medi-Sub), Aaron VandenBerg (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Mitch Hannan, Tom Liberatore, Josh Schache

OUT

Hayden Crozier (Omitted)< Josh Dunkley (Managed), Lachlan McNeil (Omitted), Anthony Scott (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Clayton Oliver

Finally, Oliver was able to break through and have his best game since round 11 with a 126. Now I think is the perfect time to jump on, as he will average 110+ for the rest of the season. He won’t be any cheaper than he is now.

Jack Macrae

This is now 3 games under 100, and he hadn’t gone under 100 before this 3 game slump. He just hasn’t been getting his mark and tackle number up the way he was doing it over the first 15 rounds. I expect a response this week. Steele and Miller are now over 130k more expensive than Macrae now…

Adelaide vs Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 10°C, light rain (78% chance of rain but roof should be closed)

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Tom Doedee, Billy Frampton

OUT

David Mackay (Omitted), Nick Murray (Injured), James Rowe (Managed)

Hawthorn

IN

Blake Hardwick, Jack Scrimshaw, Chad Wingard

OUT

Shaun Burgoyne (Managed), Damon Greaves (Omitted), Emerson Jeka (Omitted), Jai Newcombe (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Rory Laird

Has been one of the most consistent players this year, with only 1 score below 115 since round 8. Ridiculous consistency and should be good again this week against Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell

Could a tag fro Schoenberg be coming? Potentially, but I don’t think it will affect Titch. He has been back to his piggish best the past 6 weeks, with all scores since the bye over 100, and only 2 of those are below 125.

Lachlan Bramble

If he is your last rookie on field, I think you can keep him on field, and I would even move on guys like Nick Haynes and Dan Houston over him. 99 and 73 in his last 2 and has a great matchup with the Crows this week. Should get you another 70+.

Sydney vs Fremantle @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean, Sam Reid, Lewis Taylor

OUT

Joel Amartey (Omitted)

Fremantle

IN

Connor Blakely, Mitch Crowden, Lloyd Meek, Nathan O’Driscoll (Debut), Matt Taberner, Hayden Young

OUT

Blake Acres (Omitted), Rory Lobb (Injured), Sam Switkowski (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jake Lloyd

Looks to have his role back, with 4 of the 6 kick ins from last week. At 676k, and an amazing run to finish the season, now is the time to jump on the Seagull!

Sean Darcy

Many coaches would have been really happy at 3QT, but within 2 minutes of the last quarter, went down with a knee injury and stopped on 103 points. Was heading for a massive 120+ score. Looks like he will play this week, which is great for his owners with the other carnage going on, but just keep an eye on the teams Sunday morning.

Geelong vs Richmond @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, cloudy with light rain and showers (70% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Zach Guthrie, Lachie Henderson, Gary Rohan

OUT

 

Richmond

IN

Josh Caddy, Callum Coleman-Jones, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Shane Edwards, Hugo Ralphsmith

OUT

Dustin Martin (Injured), Kamdyn McIntosh (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Menegola

If your brave enough, Menegola isn’t a bad option to bring in. Finally looked like he had the role I expected him to have last week since Duncan went down with injury. Went big with a 129, and now has a breakeven of 59 priced at 604k. Nice POD option that could pay off big time, but could also ruin your fantasy finals chances.

Cam Guthrie

Similar to Oliver, a great underpriced option at 747k. Has been really consistent this year, with only 4 scores under 100 all year. Has a pretty nice run to end the year as well, and if you want to go against the grain, Guthrie is your answer.

Shai Bolton

With Dusty going down with a season ending injury, now is the time for Shai to shine! Should play predominately midfield, went down from 677k at the bye all the way down to 584k due to back to back 50’s in rounds 15 and 16. I think he should be a safe 80-100 player for the rest of the season, with the ability to go a little higher. I will probably look at him this week, and pounce next week if I see something good this week, but you can do it this week.

Essendon vs GWS @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, sunny and clear skies

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Nick Bryan, Dylan Shiel, David Zaharakis

OUT

 

GWS

IN

Lachie Ash, Shane Mumford, James Peatling (Debut), Jake Riccardi, Lachie Whitfield

OUT

Jeremy Finlayson (Omitted), Matt Flynn (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Zach Merrett/Darcy Parish

Both should be big to end the round, with Zach Merrett my preferred option out of the 2 if you are deciding for a captain. Plays well against the Giants, with back to back 120+ scores against them, and a 128 earlier this year. I also like Parish as well, and both he and Merrett could also be your fall back trade option if you want to hold a trade in case of Josh Kelly being a late out.

Lachie Whitfield

Back into the team this week, and I am keen to see him back. Has been hit and miss when coming back from injury/concussion, but he does have a 190 after missing through injury.

Josh Kelly

Will be the most watched player news this week, will he play? I think he may just get up, being the last game of the round, and the Giants need to win to stay in the finals hunt, and having Kelly in the team will only boost their chances of a win against the Bombers.

Stephen Coniglio

Just a watch over the next couple of weeks, as he could be a nice cheap option for the cash starved coaches over the next fortnight. Went down 50k last week after his first game back from injury and is now priced at 620k. Breakeven is still 139 so you wouldn’t do it this week, but a close watch this week. Attended 11 of 29 CBA’s for GWS last week as he was eased back in, and that number could rise this week.

My Trades

Amartey -> Ginnivan

Martin -> Walsh

Now, I do have both Kelly and Mills but I am deciding to roll the dice and keep both, by playing Stocker to cover Mills, and either Bianco or West for Kelly if he is to miss this week. Mills WILL be back next week, and I am hopeful that Kelly plays this week, if not he will hopefully play next week so I am gambling on that one. In terms of trades, I am downgrading Amartey who is on my bench to Ginnivan who is making his debut for Collingwood tonight. Then my other trade is trading out Dusty and going up to Walsh. I think this could be the last week you realistically can get Walsh. His breakeven is 72, so if he goes and gets a 120+ (which I hope he can) then he will be above 860k next week and that might almost be too much to pay for him. He has a great run home to go along with the fact he has now shown a ceiling over 150, he is almost untaggable at this point, and he is just a really good player, and I want to watch him knowing he is in my team. Lets just hope I don’t curse him like I did with Oliver!

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 19!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Mighty Puds

    July 23, 2021 at 1:22 pm

    Nice article!! Also rolling the dice with Mills and Josh Kelly by keeping both given I have cover (though not the best cover) for each. Going Dusty to Tim Kelly (still cheap and can’t reach Oliver) and then Houston to Stewart (match this week is nice for Dan but Stewart has the consistency and better scoring ability).

    • Bailey

      July 23, 2021 at 6:08 pm

      Thanks man. I answered your question in more depth on the live stream but I don’t mind the trades. Would consider M Kennedy and Menegola over Kelly due to the injury worry though 👍

  2. Efes

    July 23, 2021 at 1:39 pm

    Houston to Tim kelly or
    Newcombe to West?

    • Efes

      July 23, 2021 at 1:45 pm

      Or Bolton for Houston

      • Bailey

        July 23, 2021 at 6:09 pm

        I answered this in more depth on the live stream if you want to check it out, but I said I would probably go Newcombe to West 👍 Ollie (special guest on the show) said Houston to Bolton was also a good play 👍

  3. Dukx

    July 23, 2021 at 3:19 pm

    Hi Efes I think T Kelly might be playing with a slight injury concern. I’ve been thinking about him for my Team for a couple of weeks. I might be wrong on that one just be careful mate

    • Bailey

      July 23, 2021 at 6:10 pm

      Yeah that’s a good point 👍

  4. Bill

    July 23, 2021 at 3:46 pm

    Field Bramble, or Connor West?

    • Bailey

      July 23, 2021 at 6:11 pm

      I went into depth with this question on the live stream as it is a great question. I did say Bramble, but West could score more with Hardwick and Scrimshaw back the Hawks but they do play the Crows. If I were you, if I could, I would loophole West and if he does well, take that score 👍

      • Bill

        July 23, 2021 at 7:04 pm

        Thanks, Bailey. There is no way I can loophole West. I’ll keep him as an emergency for Kelly.

        • Bailey

          July 24, 2021 at 4:14 am

          Yeah that is a good call. I also have West emergency for Kelly as well 👍

  5. Peter

    July 23, 2021 at 7:40 pm

    Zorko or Danger for Dusty

    • Bailey

      July 24, 2021 at 4:15 am

      If you have the money, I would go Zorko purely for his easy run of games to finish the year. If you need the cash, I would go Danger

  6. Bec

    July 24, 2021 at 2:34 pm

    wow out of all years the is the least I’ve enjoyed.

    Lost Pendles last night , like most, and got in M.Kennedy for Dusty, and is he actually playing, another 1 stinking it up after I bring them in
    next year go with all rookies through to the end of the year me thinks lol

    Covid sux, so does 2021 fantasy

  7. The Cricket

    July 24, 2021 at 6:26 pm

    Sorry everyone, I think I broke Jack Steele 😕

    • The Cricket

      July 24, 2021 at 7:29 pm

      Oh, he came good … sort of

  8. Bec

    July 24, 2021 at 7:22 pm

    at least im not the only person on here who breaks people,

    did’t have Steel, might pick him up next week know that others broke him lol

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