For centuries psychologists have studied the link between creative genius and people who the rest of society consider a little insane. Many brilliant people throughout history have fit both descriptions, such as famous painter Vincent Van Gogh and pioneering physicist and inventor Nicholas Tesla. Today, we are happy to provide the final piece of evidence that was required to prove this highly debated link, the Optimal AFL Fantasy Team of 2017.
With a total score of 60,551, an incredible 9,659 points more than the competition winner, Selby Lee-Steere’s Moreira’s Magic, you would have to be insane to have selected this side. Amazingly, this ‘dream team’ has an average score of 2,633 points per round (Moreira’s Magic averaged 2213) with a noteworthy score of 2,949 points in round 22.
The starting squad blatantly disregards the generally accepted Guns-and-Rookies strategy. A total of fourteen players were selected in the initial team with a starting price of $200-500k. In fact, out of the 35 top-priced players at the start of the season across the four positions, only 4 were selected: Taylor Adams, Rory Laird, Zachary Merrett and Tom Rockliff.
While the rest of us were looking for rookies as trade down targets, the optimal team focussed on sideways trading. Crazy. In fact, not once was a rookie traded into the team throughout the season. The cheapest player traded in was Luke Ryan in round 19 at a price of $306,000.
Luke Ryan from Fremantle.
Throughout the season a total of 17 different captains were used. This on its own is remarkable but not completely surprising. We could all have done a lot better if we could choose the captain at the end of the round, not the start. What is surprising is that out of these 17 captains, Patrick Dangerfield was not made captain once. This is conclusive evidence that there is no such thing as a set-and-forget captain.
As most of us already know, the second substitute position in the ruck is somewhat unnecessary. The optimal team exploits this by selecting backup Richmond ruck, Ivan Soldo, who sat in the squad without ever being selected in the starting team until he was traded out in round 12.
The final sign of utter madness is that the team finishes with a whopping $1,254,000 unused in the remaining budget. Talk about restraint. What makes this possible is the ludicrous finishing team value of $16,758,000 (the highest valued team was “the toecutters” with $15,249,000). Apparently it is possible to reach a point where budget is no longer important.
At the end of the day this is a team that is essentially impossible to have chosen during the season. However there is a certain beauty in its craziness.
So next year, when you are thinking about making a move that everyone else is calling crazy, remember what Aristotle said (more or less) – “No great [AFL Fantasy Team] has ever existed without a touch of madness”.
Round 1 team
DEFENDERS
Taylor Adams, Rory Laird, Andew McGath, Caleb Marchbank, Dylan Roberton, Curtly Hampton (Andy Otten, Nic Newman)
MIDFIELDERS
Dyson Heppell, Andrew Gaff, Marc Murphy, Zach Merrett, Tom Mitchell, Tom Rockliff, Clayton Oliver, Dayne Zorko (Jake Barrett, Hugh Greenwood)
RUCKS
Matthew Kreuzer, Jarrod Witts (Braydon Preuss, Ivan Soldo)
FORWARDS
Elliot Yeo, Charlie Cameron, Alex Neal-Bullen, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Mitch Hannan, Jeremy Cameron (Dan Houston, Ryan Burton)
Round-by-round
Scores, team value, salary cap remaining, captain and every trade for the 23 rounds of footy.
| Rd | Score | Team Value | Budget | Captain (Score) | Trade In | Trade Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2646 | $10.967M | $33K | Dyson Heppell (156) | Rory Sloane Bradley Hill | Rory Laird Dyson Heppell |
| 2 | 2578 | $11.269M | $187K | Rory Sloane (152) | Sam Docherty Gary Ablett | Andrew Gaff Charlie Cameron |
| 3 | 2520 | $12.110M | $60K | Marc Murphy (145) | Ben Mcevoy Jack Billings | Clayton Oliver Braydon Preuss |
| 4 | 2551 | $12.893M | $26K | Tom Rockliff (157) | Mitchell Duncan Michael Hurley | Marc Murphy Will Hoskin-Elliott |
| 5 | 2528 | $13.450M | $35K | Dayne Zorko (157) | Isaac Heeney Cameron Pedersen | Alex Neal-Bullen Dan Houston |
| 6 | 2650 | $13.888M | $21K | Gary Ablett (162) | Joshua Kelly Bachar Houli | Rory Sloane Curtly Hampton |
| 7 | 2668 | $14.224M | $65K | Tom Rockliff (167) | David Zaharakis Michael Walters | Andrew Mcgrath Caleb Marchbank |
| 8 | 2807 | $14.680M | $10K | Joshua Kelly (162) | Patrick Dangerfield Bryce Gibbs | Tom Rockliff Jeremy Cameron |
| 9 | 2783 | $15.051M | $60K | Tom Mitchell (177) | Dustin Martin Brandon Ellis | Mitchell Duncan Jack Billings |
| 10 | 2605 | $15.281M | $260K | Bryce Gibbs (145) | Brodie Grundy Kane Lambert Jarryd Lyons | Ben Mcevoy Dylan Roberton Mitchell Hannan |
| 11 | 2228 | $15.649M | $199K | Dustin Martin (164) | Jackson Macrae Jack Gunston Sam Mayes | Elliot Yeo Andy Otten Ivan Soldo |
| 12 | 2426 | $15.994M | $31K | Brodie Grundy (158) | Patrick Ryder Kade Simpson Chad Wingard | Joshua Kelly Ryan Burton Jake Barrett |
| 13 | 2278 | $16.286M | $18K | Bryce Gibbs (194) | Matt Crouch Sam Menegola | Jarrod Witts Jarryd Lyons |
| 14 | 2626 | $16.598M | $12K | Jackson Macrae (137) | Luke Parker Jack Martin | Isaac Heeney Bachar Houli |
| 15 | 2912 | $16.650M | $210K | Bryce Gibbs (160) | Rory Laird Travis Boak | Nic Newman Hugh Greenwood |
| 16 | 2809 | $17.015M | $83K | Dayne Zorko (181) | Isaac Smith Michael Hibberd | Kane Lambert Michael Walters |
| 17 | 2685 | $17.090M | $210K | Gary Ablett (152) | Rory Sloane Dayne Beams | Zachary Merrett Gary Ablett |
| 18 | 2559 | $16.818M | $564K | Dayne Beams (142) | Tom Hawkins Luke Ryan | Dayne Zorko Sam Mayes |
| 19 | 2617 | $16.399M | $1004K | Tom Hawkins (158) | Lachie Neale Jack Billings | Michael Hibberd Tom Hawkins |
| 20 | 2652 | $16.570M | $886K | Lachie Neale (152) | Lance Franklin Bachar Houli | Lachie Neale Bradley Hill |
| 21 | 2673 | $16.499M | $998K | Dayne Beams (143) | Shaun Grigg Toby Nankervis | Bryce Gibbs Michael Hurley |
| 22 | 2949 | $16.292M | $1265K | Shaun Grigg (153) | Zachary Merrett Matthew Boyd | Dayne Beams Luke Ryan |
| 23 | 2801 | $16.758M | $1254K | Lance Franklin (171) |
Round 23 team
DEFENDERS
Matthew Boyd, Kade Simpson, Brandon Ellis, Taylor Adams, Rory Laird, Bachar Houli (Sam Docherty, Jack Martin)
MIDFIELDERS
Matt Crouch, Rory Sloane, Zach Merrett, Shaun Grigg, Tom Mitchell, Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield, Luke Parker (Isaac Smith, David Zaharakis)
RUCKS
Paddy Ryder, Matthew Kreuzer (Brodie Grundy, Cameron Pedersen)
FORWARDS
Lance Franklin, Sam Menegola, Jack Macrae, Toby Nankervis, Jack Billings, Jack Gunston (Chad Wingard, Travis Boak)
DOWNLOAD: DT2017-Optimal.xlsx
Huge thanks to Steven Edwards for his incredible research. We are keen to hear from our readers with any observations from this awesome data.
Matthew Boyd was traded in for the Grand Final.
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