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Deck of Dream Team

Patrick Cripps – Deck of Dream Team 2023

FlipperTC predicts the Brownlow Medallist to defy the odds.

Player Patrick Cripps
Club Carlton
Position MID
Price $903,000
Bye 15
2022 avg 102
2022 gms 21
Proj. avg 110-115
Draft range Rounds 1-2

Click here for 2023 Fantasy Classic prices.

Why should I pick him?

How often have we all asked this question of Patty over the last few seasons? He’s killed a number of us over the journey as he struggled with his fitness and form. To be frank, he killed enough coaches prior to last year that he was a consideration for the Dicks of DT list. But in honour of his Brownlow win, his recent wedding and his solid year last year I left him off. You’re welcome Patrick.

Why pick him is actually quite easy this year as I believe he’s under-priced…again. Even after his rebound year last year he’s only priced at 102 which is bang on his average for last year. Now for someone his age being priced at average is normally a bad sign as it would indicate lack of potential growth, but I think he goes up at least 7 points this season. This makes him a worthy pick and maybe even a “100% lock” or a “must have” or a “can’t miss” – whichever phrasing you use.  Does a 100% lock even exist?  I’m a No for that.  Anyway, that’s not important.

Patty started like a house on fire last year and had us all beaming with pride if we’d picked him. Then a hammy hit gave us a horrid score and fears of weeks out. But even then it was only a week and if you held (unlike me) you were rewarded with 3 scores over 120 on his return. Unheard of when coming back from a hammy. He was heading for full Premo status. Then a concerning run of form came and over his next 9 games he hit 100 only twice, topped scored at 106 for an average of 87. Pretty nasty stuff.

However, I am told by my Carlton loving mates (I have a few unfortunately) he had a role change in that period which included him helping cover the loss of Carlton’s rucks. Not by taking centre square hitouts but by taking on a different role at stoppages and using his top shelf rig to block and bustle as much as seek the pill. So instead of scoring at the rate he was, he was sacrificing his scoring for the good of the team. Crazy Vossy had come back to bite us in the Fantasy realm. Thankfully for owners it didn’t last.

Mr Worldwide and/or TDK were back on board or Vossy tweaked the game plan to finish the year and Crippa finished strong. His last 5 games gave us an average of 113. I’m forecasting a year of more of the high scoring Crippa and less of the low. Walsh out will hurt the team but I don’t see it hurting Cripps. He’s got some more help this year and another pre-season into Cerra will help cover the Walsh loss for a while. He’ll get a decent bump even if he only avoids his hammy affected 36 this season.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

I’ve covered the reasons not to pick him in the above to some extent. A mid-season run of 9 games with an under 90 average is tough to ignore completely. Maybe my Blueboy mates were right on the money and it was a different role that led to those lower scores. Yet the possibility exists my info was wrong (they can’t be that smart and support Carlton can they?) and there was no role change and the string of low scores was simply an ageing Bull showing the impacts of a long season. Perhaps Patty just can’t go a full season anymore and Vossy will need to manage him the way we see other top shelf assets getting managed by other teams around the league. Even his strong finish included 2 games out of 5 under 100.

Whatever the reasons for it, Patty’s overall recent consistency is troubling. Last year was an excellent rebound but the query remains whether that was now his best possible output or whether another bump up to 110 is likely, or even possible. It’s a question each coach will ask themselves and there’s evidence to suggest he’s just too risky when priced over 100.

The last reason not to pull the trigger is the Walsh injury. Whilst the Carlton team is not a 2 man team in the guts, Walsh is 1 of only 2 A-Graders they have in the midfield and that leaves only Cripps for oppo coaches to really concern themselves with. If Cerra does take another step up this will help, but if he doesn’t Cripps may get attention that hurts his scoring. Hewett is an excellent player but he’s not prolific enough to plan for, Cripps is. Acres will help the team for sure but he’s not going to ease the load on Cripps. If Walsh only misses a few weeks then it’s less of an issue. In the nightmare scenario, then the risk remains Cripps will be carrying the load again for a long period and that hasn’t gone that well in the past.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

Risks abound with Patty but I see them as being much lower for him than in previous years. He had the tough patch last season but I believe that was role related and unlikely to re-occur. Outside that stretch he averaged 112 (119 if you remove the hammy game) so that’s his most likely outcome this season in my opinion. His risks almost made him a Queen but his rewards, and the likelihood of them, squeak him in to King status for this Fantasy Coach.

Catch FlipperTC’s “Dicks of DT” article from earlier in the pre-season.

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16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Daicos4Brownlow

    January 20, 2023 at 9:06 am

    Thanks Flipper. I think my comment in last year’s DODT is still relevant:

    ‘I am definitely not a diehard Carlton fan, but I do believe that Cripps offers value in the early part of the season. The ever crazy Blues fans will think they are flag favourites and the hype will drag Cripps up a level. Then it will be time to trade him out once the Baggers realise the reality of another dud season and Cripps begins to sag under the weight of carrying the rest of the team.’

    Walsh being out will also help his early season scoring, so he is in my starting squad. Once again, I don’t think he will be in the final rolling 22, but he should be in the early season rolling 22.

  2. PK

    January 20, 2023 at 9:28 am

    Been sitting at M2 in my squad for the majority of the preseason. Solid write up flipperTC👍

    • The Octopus

      January 20, 2023 at 10:51 am

      Either Cripps or Kelly will be my M6

      • PK

        January 20, 2023 at 1:58 pm

        Yeah nice, i’m looking for value in my mids (Worpel currently @ M6) and i have a strong forward, ruck & defence. Will all change when the preseason games start no doubt.

        • Phteven

          January 20, 2023 at 2:04 pm

          We are all currently daydreaming at the moment with our teams. A few of the mid price madness players have fallen off the shelf, I’m hoping that Worp speed will be a winner

  3. MiseryBestowed

    January 20, 2023 at 11:39 am

    Carlton missing out on the 2022 finals.. 🤣
    Best day ever.

    • The Chosen Won™®©

      January 20, 2023 at 3:57 pm

      +1

      2017 CL Champion™®©
      I smashed da Minj 2019 2020 2021 2022™®©
      Good Luck in 2023™®©

      • Dulcify

        January 20, 2023 at 9:03 pm

        Hey Greg, when DT opened I was put into a random league and noticed you were in it too. Why did you pull out?

        • The Chosen Won™®©

          January 21, 2023 at 6:20 am

          Its a default public league. I have recreated leagues from previous years only allowed to have so many :)

          Invites for 2023 RDT have been sent (except for Minj he needs to tell me in 1000 word or more why he should be allowed to join)

          2017 CL Champion™®©
          I smashed da Minj 2019 2020 2021 2022™®©
          Good Luck in 2023™®©

      • iridium192

        January 21, 2023 at 1:39 am

        Hey Greg, our preferred game is open, send the codes through mate.

        Cheers

        • The Chosen Won™®©

          January 21, 2023 at 6:22 am

          Sent invites yesterday let me know if they don’t come through i will email them to you Col.

          2017 CL Champion™®©
          I smashed da Minj 2019 2020 2021 2022™®©
          Good Luck in 2023™®©

          • iridium192

            January 21, 2023 at 11:13 am

            thanks Greg

            • The Chosen Won™®©

              January 24, 2023 at 6:50 pm

              Sorry about the email spam mate down in Tassie for a week and the 2G phone service needs some work :)

              Good Luck in 2023

  4. Squid

    January 20, 2023 at 12:42 pm

    Yeah nah, not enough fat and not likely top 10.

    May start well before getting banged up but can you risk being unable to offload him?

    As an aside should never have won the Brownlow, good enough for sure but how he didn’t get weeks for recklessly killing a bloke is astounding.

    • Daicos4Brownlow

      January 20, 2023 at 4:15 pm

      Agree with you in regards to his Brownlow win. How he got out of his suspension made a mockery of the AFL tribunal system. Also, how did he get three votes in the final round, when Carlton lost, Daics should have got the three votes and only got one, and Cerra got the two. I had him to be top of the count at the halfway point, but I reckon he was lucky in the second half of the year to get votes in a few matches.

      In 2023 Fantasy, however, I think there is fat, but only for the first half of the season before Carlton realise they are still rubbish.

  5. Baldrick's boys

    January 20, 2023 at 6:30 pm

    Started him last year, but not so sure this year – nice write up

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