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Jaiden Popowski’s R23 score projections

How will your players score this weekend? A stats major looks to predict the numbers.

IN ORDER to win a premiership at any level, you need almost everyone firing and performing at their optimal level … Fantasy is no different.

Who could be the match winners in Toyota AFL Fantasy Grand Final match-ups this weekend?

Jaiden Popowski loves numbers. The Hobart-based student is undertaking statistics major and is currently in his third year. While he should be focusing on numbers that his lecturers think matter, Fantasy stats are at the forefront of his thinking as he tries to get the edge playing the official Fantasy game of the AFL.

Recently Jaiden has developed a projected scores model that uses a variety of factors to predict future scores based on 2022 data. Some of the factors are player position, opponent, season average, form and how similar players have performed.

>>> SCROLL DOWN TO SEE FULL LIST AND DOWNLOADABLE SPREADSHEET

It is important to note that projections aren’t everything. They take into account how similar players have scored against opponents but combine a range of factors. Taggers have been in vogue in recent weeks, as discussed on the latest episode of The Traders’ podcast. While there isn’t a specific metric to account for a potential tag, the players who score well-below their season average can increase an opponent’s difficulty. Injury affected games are not included in calculations.

Roy named up his best 22 for round 23 based on his loose criteria, but mostly gut-feel. Jaiden is purely using statistics.

With that in mind, here are Jaiden’s projections for round 23. He’s included the top six defenders and forwards, eight midfielders and two rucks with a couple of extras thrown in for good measure. Maybe your two trades could be used to bring in someone from the list?

 

DEFENDERS

Player Club Position Price Opponent Projected
Aaron Hall NM DEF $714k GCS 106.3
Sam Docherty CARL DEF $874k COLL 106.0
Angus Brayshaw MELB MID/DEF $816k BL 101.5
Shannon Hurn WCE DEF $781k GEEL 101.3
Daniel Rich BL DEF $633k MELB 101.2
Dan Houston PORT DEF/MID $708k ADEL 100.6
Mason Redman ESS DEF $737k RICH 97.2
James Sicily HAW DEF $710k WBD 96.6

MIDFIELDERS

Player Club Position Price Opponent Projected
Patrick Cripps CARL MID $833k COLL 120.6
Touk Miller GCS MID $907k NM 118.2
Sam Walsh CARL MID $819k COLL 114.6
Clayton Oliver MELB MID $889k BL 112.1
Andrew Brayshaw FRE MID $876k GWS 108.9
Zach Merrett ESS MID $921k RICH 108.7
Jack Macrae WBD MID $786k HAW 107.7
Rory Laird ADEL MID $1.04M PORT 107.7
Ollie Wines PORT MID $763k ADEL 107.6
Adam Cerra CARL MID $697k COLL 107.3

RUCKS

Player Club Position Price Opponent Projected
Rowan Marshall STK RUC/FWD $887k SYD 103.4
Tim English WBD RUC/FWD $745k HAW 96.1
Max Gawn MELB RUC $842k BL 92.9
Mark Blicavs GEEL DEF/RUC $685k WCE 92.8

FORWARDS

Player Club Position Price Opponent Projected
Josh Dunkley WBD MID/FWD $816k HAW 110.5
Bailey Smith WBD MID/FWD $783k HAW 107.2
Marcus Bontempelli WBD MID/FWD $834k HAW 104.6
Mitch Duncan GEEL MID/FWD $782k WCE 103.3
Zak Butters PORT FWD/MID $710k ADEL 101.3
Tom Liberatore WBD MID/FWD $729k HAW 101.1
Connor Rozee PORT FWD/MID $784k ADEL 99.2
Stephen Coniglio GWS MID/FWD $845k FRE 98.9

Some things to note:

  • Clearly projections aren’t everything, but are based on how similar players have scored meaning there isn’t any individual player scaling or such.
  • Tag flag! Very important as I’ve heard a few potential flags being thrown around. My model doesn’t explicitly counter for this as it’s impossible to predict, but players who score way below season average can increase an opponent’s difficulty.
  • Injury games are not included in calculations.

Click here to download Jaiden’s round 23 projections spreadsheet

RankPlayerPositionPriceAvgFormOpponentOwn%Proj.
1Patrick CrippsMID$833k102115COLL32120.6
2Touk MillerMID$907k110114.3@NM33118.2
3Sam WalshMID$819k10398.7COLL14114.6
4Clayton OliverMID$889k113111.7@BL25112.1
5Josh DunkleyMID/FWD$816k108109.7@HAW69110.5
6Andrew BrayshawMID$876k114108@GWS30108.9
7Zach MerrettMID$921k106104.3RICH14108.7
8Jack MacraeMID$786k10490@HAW45107.7
9Rory LairdMID$1.04m121116.3@PA20107.7
10Ollie WinesMID$763k96111.3ADEL6107.6
11Adam CerraMID$697k86100.7COLL3107.3
12Bailey SmithMID/FWD$783k10890@HAW26107.2
13Cameron GuthrieMID$789k9999.3WCE3107.1
14Aaron HallDEF$714k90109.7GCS11106.3
15Sam DochertyDEF$874k109114.3COLL26106
16Noah AndersonMID$801k9890.7@NM2105.1
17Christian PetraccaMID$796k102102.7@BL31105
18Jack VineyMID$828k100107@BL5104.7
19Marcus BontempelliMID/FWD$834k10188.7@HAW26104.6
20Lachie NealeMID$784k10792.3MELB46104.3
21Travis BoakMID$724k9685ADEL4104.3
22Darcy ParishMID$771k10195.3RICH3103.9
23Rowan MarshallRUC/FWD$887k94133SYD22103.4
24Mitch DuncanMID/FWD$782k9383.3WCE7103.3
25Callum MillsMID$910k113111.3@STK23103.1
26Josh KellyMID$782k103108FREM4101.7
27Angus BrayshawMID/DEF$816k99110.3@BL22101.5
28Shannon HurnDEF$781k92107.3@GEEL1101.3
29Zak ButtersFWD/MID$710k85111ADEL16101.3
30Daniel RichDEF$633k8573.7MELB4101.2
31Tom LiberatoreMID/FWD$729k9289@HAW9101.1
32Hugh McCluggageMID$860k10393.7MELB2100.6
33Dan HoustonDEF/MID$708k9397.3ADEL7100.6
34Brad CrouchMID$906k106119.7SYD4100.2
35Connor RozeeFWD/MID$784k8598ADEL799.2
36Stephen ConiglioMID/FWD$845k99104FREM4098.9
37Dylan ShielMID$753k84104.7RICH198.7
38Jy SimpkinMID$809k96119GCS298.6
39Luke ParkerMID/FWD$857k100117.7@STK1898.2
40Mason RedmanDEF$737k8789.3RICH297.2
41Jarryd LyonsMID$674k9287.3MELB297
42Luke Davies-UniackeMID$843k93102.7GCS297
43Jack SteeleMID$892k10988SYD2696.8
44Tom MitchellMID$792k97100.7WB1096.7
45Jack SinclairDEF/MID$837k10393.3SYD2896.6
46Isaac SmithMID/FWD$667k8492.7WCE196.6
47Will BrodieMID/FWD$764k9491.3@GWS4596.3
48Tim EnglishRUC/FWD$745k10180.7@HAW3596.1
49James SicilyDEF$710k9494.7WB4696
50Bailey DaleDEF$703k9191.3@HAW1095.7
51Max GawnRUC$842k105118@BL4592.9
52Mark BlicavsDEF/RUC$685k9087.7WCE492.8
53Nick VlastuinDEF$687k9091@ESS392.8
54Dion PrestiaMID$720k8799.7@ESS192.5
55Caleb DanielDEF$690k8684.3@HAW1192.3
56Patrick DangerfieldMID$599k7669.3WCE392
57Jake LloydDEF$767k9197.3@STK1592
58Sam MenegolaMID$555k6879.7WCE091.9
59Willem DrewMID$607k7477.7ADEL091.9
60Caleb SerongMID$667k8790@GWS491.8
61Jayden ShortDEF/MID$737k9892.3@ESS3291.8
62Riley BonnerDEF/MID$610k7581.7ADEL190.7
63Ryan BurtonDEF$665k8170.7ADEL190.6
64Jack CrispDEF/MID$691k9579.3@CARL4290.5
65Nick HindDEF$655k7772RICH190.5
66Karl AmonMID$760k9685ADEL290.5
67Jeremy CameronFWD$682k8386.3WCE490
68Reilly O'BrienRUC$725k9281.3@PA1289.8
69David MundyMID$611k7782.7@GWS189.8
70Adam TreloarMID/FWD$746k9582@HAW2989.4
71Jai NewcombeMID$732k8995.3WB489.4
72Brandon EllisMID/DEF$743k85112.3@NM189.3
73Ben KeaysMID$716k10068.7@PA789.2
74Jarrod WittsRUC$758k9196@NM1789.2
75Sebastian RossMID$754k9094.3SYD088.9
76Isaac CummingDEF$687k9189FREM188.9
77Adam SaadDEF$695k8389COLL588.8
78David SwallowMID/DEF$697k78102@NM188.3
79Rhys StanleyRUC$542k6974WCE188
80Tom StewartDEF$720k9577.3WCE1587.9
81Tom GreenMID$581k8678.3FREM487.8
82Jed AndersonMID/FWD$681k8387.3GCS287.8
83Andrew GaffMID$664k8178.7@GEEL187.6
84Dayne ZorkoMID/DEF$621k8393MELB987.5
85Sean DarcyRUC$709k87106.3@GWS1387.2
86Darcy CameronFWD/RUC$657k8281.3@CARL1187.2
87Errol GuldenFWD/MID$722k83106@STK387
88Jordan DawsonDEF/MID$823k102110@PA2586.5
89Jaeger O'MearaMID$678k8281.3WB086.5
90Luke McDonaldMID/DEF$583k7769.3GCS186.3
91Chad WarnerMID$754k8981@STK586.1
92Dylan MooreFWD$796k9395.3WB586
93Harry PerrymanDEF/MID$660k8794.7FREM185.6
94Jack ReddenMID$775k9394.3@GEEL085.2
95Braydon PreussRUC$629k8683.3FREM784.8
96Tom HawkinsFWD$599k7570.3WCE384.7
97Tim KellyMID$612k8371.3@GEEL184.7
98Harry HimmelbergFWD/DEF$766k8197.7FREM984.1
99Jeremy FinlaysonFWD/RUC$616k7186.7ADEL184
100Max HolmesMID/FWD$562k6384.7WCE183.6
101Lachie WhitfieldDEF/MID$732k92103.3FREM1982.4
102Steven MayDEF$562k7268.3@BL982.1
103Brad CloseFWD$600k6974.7WCE182
104Rhys MathiesonMID$588k7975.3MELB181.8
105Zach TuohyDEF/MID$686k8282WCE281.8
106Tyson StengleFWD$560k7074.3WCE581.8
107Scott PendleburyMID/DEF$680k8577.7@CARL481.8
108Hugh GreenwoodMID$567k7170GCS181.5
109Oliver FlorentMID/DEF$586k6975@STK181.5
110Jordan De GoeyMID/FWD$605k8072.7@CARL581.4
111Luke RyanDEF$780k8697@GWS481.2
112Ben McEvoyRUC/FWD$633k7897WB181.2
113Brandan ParfittMID$604k7692.3WCE081
114Tom AtkinsDEF/MID$651k7969.3WCE181
115Nick BlakeyDEF$609k7774@STK481
116Jaidyn StephensonFWD/MID$635k71101.3GCS280.7
117Luke ShueyMID$666k8482.3@GEEL180.2
118Matt RowellMID$567k7564@NM1980.1
119Ben AinsworthFWD$608k7485.3@NM179.9
120Joel SelwoodMID$608k8060.7WCE179.9
122Keidean ColemanDEF/FWD$660k7869.7MELB679.4
123Aaron NaughtonFWD$513k7057.3@HAW979.4
124Oscar McInerneyRUC$649k7886MELB179.3
125Dyson HeppellDEF$688k8481RICH279.2
126Callan WardMID$677k8192.3FREM179
127Tom J. LynchFWD$578k73107.3@ESS179
128Nick DaicosMID/DEF$741k8879.3@CARL5279
129Jack ScrimshawDEF$628k7268.7WB178.9
130James RowbottomMID$716k81109@STK178.9
131Sam Powell-PepperMID/FWD$668k7881.7ADEL378.5
132Elijah HollandsMID/FWD$398k7578.3@NM3878.1
133Justin McInerneyDEF/MID$554k7067.3@STK478.1
134Mitch McGovernFWD$515k6783.7COLL178
135Sam BerryFWD/MID$720k8479.7@PA477.9
136Trent CotchinMID$705k79108@ESS177.9
137Liam DugganDEF/MID$722k82108@GEEL177.5
138Jamaine JonesFWD/DEF$544k6267.7@GEEL177.4
139Bradley HillDEF/FWD$546k7569.3SYD377
140Dylan StephensMID$555k6768.7@STK076.7
141Lachie HunterMID$598k7265.3@HAW276.5
142Blake AcresMID$656k8582.7@GWS076.4
143Isaac HeeneyFWD/MID$717k8895@STK2576.4
144Charlie DixonFWD$564k6856.7ADEL176.4
145Nic NaitanuiRUC$606k7182@GEEL376.3
146Robbie FoxDEF$625k7973@STK276.3
147Charlie CurnowFWD$579k7661.7COLL776.2
148Patrick LipinskiMID/FWD$633k8172@CARL576.1
149Mason WoodFWD/MID$677k7292SYD175.9
150Jarrod BerryMID$630k7767.3MELB075.7
151Harry MorrisonMID/FWD$667k8182.3WB175.7
153Brodie SmithDEF$666k8086@PA175.2
154Darcy Byrne-JonesDEF$625k8078ADEL175.2
155Jack LukosiusDEF/MID$513k6267.7@NM175.1
156Miles BergmanMID$560k7061ADEL074.9
157Hayden YoungDEF$735k8877.3@GWS474.8
158Blake HardwickDEF$600k6574.3WB174.8
159Curtis TaylorMID/FWD$549k6269GCS174.3
160Brandon StarcevichDEF$594k6569MELB174.2
161James AishDEF/MID$659k7986.3@GWS174.2
162Tom SparrowMID/FWD$475k6346@BL1174.1
163Liam BakerDEF/FWD$551k7066.3@ESS274.1
164Taylor WalkerFWD$579k7868@PA274
165Kamdyn McIntoshMID$611k6978.3@ESS073.8
166Andrew McGrathMID$639k8175.7RICH173.8
167Kane FarrellMID/FWD$520k6567.3ADEL273.5
168Todd GoldsteinRUC/FWD$617k7180GCS273.4
169Jordan ClarkMID/DEF$677k8286@GWS373.4
170Harry McKayFWD$558k7058.7COLL273.3
171Josh DaicosMID$622k7682.3@CARL373.2
172Will SetterfieldMID$547k6781.3COLL072.7
173Ed RichardsDEF$676k7295.3@HAW572.4
175Jye CaldwellMID$576k7452.7RICH372.2
176Tom De KoningRUC/FWD$513k6249.7COLL272
177Zak JonesMID$518k6675.7SYD071.9
178Shai BoltonMID/FWD$650k7687@ESS671.7
179Jason Horne-FrancisMID/FWD$440k6254.3GCS2071.7
180Jacob HopperMID$567k6468.3FREM071.6
181Daniel RioliDEF/FWD$614k7875.3@ESS771.5
182Brayden MaynardDEF$603k7280@CARL171.5
183Jamie CrippsFWD$607k7269.3@GEEL071.2
184Steele SidebottomMID/FWD$572k7160@CARL371.1
185Tom HickeyRUC$575k7081@STK170.9
187Noah AnswerthDEF$446k6053MELB270.7
189Toby NankervisRUC$661k8595.7@ESS470.7
190Nic MartinFWD/MID$601k8072RICH2370.7
191Harry SchoenbergMID$487k6265@PA170.5
194Josh WardMID$634k7083.7WB1270.4
196John NobleDEF$490k6770@CARL169.8
197Luke JacksonRUC/FWD$546k7166.3@BL1969.7
199Lochie O'BrienMID$546k7063.3COLL169.4
200Jack RiewoldtFWD$522k6360@ESS169.4
201Todd MarshallFWD$533k6867.7ADEL069.4
203Michael WaltersFWD$500k6373@GWS169.2
204Rory LobbFWD$519k6644.7@GWS169.1
205Tom PapleyFWD$662k7381.7@STK169.1
206James HarmesMID/FWD$570k7261.7@BL469
207Zac FisherFWD$597k7264.7COLL169
208Marlion PickettMID$470k6541.3@ESS169
210Adam KennedyMID/DEF$462k6459.3FREM068.9
213Jack RossMID$494k6158.7@ESS068.6
214Tom BarrassDEF$653k6783.7@GEEL168.4
215Bailey ScottFWD/DEF$535k6859.7GCS068.3
216Xavier O'NeillMID/FWD$482k6085@GEEL168.3
217Willie RioliFWD/MID$486k6162.7@GEEL368
218Jack NewnesMID$484k6548.3COLL067.9
219Lance FranklinFWD$593k7281.7@STK267.8
220Zac BaileyMID/FWD$533k7083.3MELB667.7
221Jack GrahamMID/FWD$538k7449.7@ESS167.7
222Zach GuthrieDEF$516k6779.7WCE167.6
223Jamie ElliottFWD$587k7362.7@CARL167.6
224Ed LangdonMID$544k7562.7@BL567.5
225Sam SwitkowskiFWD$535k6559.7@GWS067.4
226Lachie SchultzFWD$481k6562@GWS167.3
227Nasiah Wanganeen-MileraDEF/MID$526k6263.3SYD467
228Callum WilkieDEF$562k6969.3SYD066.8
229Lachie YoungDEF/MID$545k6274.3GCS166.8
230Heath ChapmanDEF$562k7163@GWS266.8
231Tyler SonsieMID$392k6067@ESS166.8
232Jarrod LienertDEF$479k6369.7SYD066.6
235Cameron ZurhaarFWD$543k6068.3GCS066.4
236James JordonMID$598k7570@BL466.3
238Jack ZiebellDEF/FWD$459k6164GCS266.1
239Nathan BroadDEF$465k7037.7@ESS165.9
242Jack DarlingFWD$556k6276.7@GEEL065.8
244Lachie AshDEF/MID$502k6556FREM165.4
245Alex Neal-BullenFWD$468k6751.7@BL465.2
246Will HaywardFWD$564k6576@STK065.2
249Jase BurgoyneDEF/MID$409k6063ADEL2065
251Kyle LangfordMID$599k6585.7RICH064.7
253Noah CumberlandMID/FWD$430k6456.3@ESS764.5
257Jack SilvagniFWD$542k7267.7COLL163.9
261Tim MembreyFWD$627k7281.7SYD163.4
262Cam RaynerFWD/MID$515k6468MELB763.4
264Daniel McStayFWD$530k6272MELB063.3
265Lincoln McCarthyFWD$469k6559.3MELB163.2
267Gryan MiersFWD$505k6068WCE063.2
269Jake StringerMID/FWD$577k6771.7RICH263.2
273Jesse HoganFWD$661k7689.7FREM063
276Hunter ClarkDEF/MID$518k6065.7SYD062.8
278Josh BattleFWD/DEF$531k7242.7SYD162.8
282Conor NashMID/FWD$524k6165WB162
286Christian SalemDEF$614k7482.3@BL961.5
297Jordan RidleyDEF$637k7686.3RICH360.3
299Shane McAdamFWD$434k6070.7@PA060.1
303Sam TaylorDEF$550k6677.3FREM059.8
307Brennan CoxDEF$540k6657.3@GWS159.6
312Sam ReidFWD$612k7581.7@STK059.3
315Jarman ImpeyDEF$467k6254.7WB059.2
316Peter WrightRUC/FWD$573k6859.7RICH459.2
317Toby GreeneFWD$588k7472.3FREM259.2
320Liam ShielsMID/FWD$535k6557.7WB058.8
325Mitchell HingeDEF$485k6168.3@PA157.8
327Jeremy HoweDEF$489k6662@CARL257.8
335Jayden LaverdeDEF$589k6292.3RICH156.8
352Charlie CameronFWD$572k7070MELB355
356Archie PerkinsFWD/MID$495k6152.7RICH154.5
357Michael HibberdDEF$488k6256@BL054.4
361Max KingFWD$474k6156.7SYD353.9
363Tom DoedeeDEF$434k6037.3@PA153.7
367Ben HobbsMID/FWD$476k6153.3RICH553.4
448Ben CunningtonMID$803k62NAGCS0NA
453Dan HanneberyMID$474k61NASYD1NA

Started playing Dream Team as soon as I was old enough to use a computer! Growing up in the Fantasy mindset inspired my passion for statistics, so now with a degree, I provide new metrics and unique insights into the game. Follow me on Twitter as I dive into new content for AFL Fantasy.




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