Weekend Forecast – Round 13

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Second week of the bye rounds is upon us, and it is most likely the most difficult one, with many coaches scrambling to have just the bare 18 playing this week with Adelaide, Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, West Coast and Western Bulldogs all on bye. Bailey Smith also being a forced trade for his coaches adds another spanner in the works. You want to be bringing in players that have had their bye, with Carlton, Essendon, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond and St Kilda players all on our shopping lists this week.

 

We finally had Thursday night footy back, and it was a good game, but unfortunately for us fantasy coaches, it was quite low scoring.

Richmond vs Port Adelaide @ MCG

Karl Amon (122) – Highest score for the game, more good for draft, but if you were one of the 0.6% of coaches that own him in Classic, you’d be happy.

Nick Vlastuin (90) – Solid for Richmond and the 3.5% of coaches who own him in a low scoring fantasy game.

Connor Rozee (89) – Similar to Vlastuin, solid for his coaches where not many players scored well.

Toby Nankervis (88) – Just keeps getting it done, even with sharing the role with Soldo. I wouldn’t bring him in as he won’t be a top 2 ruck.

Jayden Short (86) – Just hasn’t had the same scoring since moving into the midfield, with only 1 ton in his last 5 games. With so many defenders scoring well, will he continue to be a top 6 defender?

Dan Houston (84) – Has been quite consistent since round 4, with only 1 score under 84. Just keeps getting it done, but I still wouldn’t have him as a top 6 defender, but would be in the mix.

Ollie Wines (72) – Disappointing score for his 6% of coaches. Back to back scores under 90 in good matchups.

Judson Clarke (64) – Impressive on debut, with his first 2 kicks in footy being goals. If he holds his spot in the team next week, will be a popular target next week if you didn’t jump on this week. The mid/fwd flexibility is also an added bonus.

Zak Butters (55) – Disappointing night for all of us that own him, as he was poor again (did cop a big hit late in the game) and will be on the chopping block for coaches next week if they already have 22 playing in the last bye round.

Dustin Martin (43) – Probably crosses off Dusty as an option now, even with him being so cheap.

 

Now, lets get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Essendon vs Carlton @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, cloudy and potential showers (50% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Jake Stringer, Mason Redman, Matt Guelfi

OUT

Tex Wanganeen (Omitted), Alec Waterman (Omitted), Devon Smith (Injured), Brayden Ham (Medi-Sub)

Carlton

IN

Jordan Boyd, Matthew Kennedy, Harry McKay, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Martin

OUT

Jesse Motlop (Omitted), Jacob Weitering (Injured), Jack Carroll (Medi-Sub), Matthew Cottrell (Omitted), Paddy Dow (Omitted), Liam Stocker (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Docherty

A great option coming off the bye if you can afford him. 862k but he will be a top 2 defender. Currently averaging 105.8 and he should continue with that, if not even push it up to maybe 107-108.

Zach Merrett

Very underpriced from what Zerrett has done in the past, mainly due to the 51 he scored against Sydney in round 9 when he got a big hit early. One of my favourite targets as you are getting him for only 790k.

Caleb Marchbank

With not a heap of rookies being named that have good job security, it could be a play to pay the 294k to grab Marchbank. He should be in the team from here on if he stays fit, and we have seen in the past he can score well. One to consider.

Other players to watch: Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Jordan Boyd, Darcy Parish, Nic Martin, George Hewett, Ben Hobbs

Fremantle vs Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, showers (50% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Michael Walters, Sam Switkowski, Nat Fyfe

OUT

Michael Fredrick (Club Suspension), Mitch Crowden (Medi-Sub), Darcy Tucker (Omitted), Lloyd Meek (Omitted)

Hawthorn

IN

Jack Scrimshaw, Jackson Callow, Sam Frost

OUT

Mitch Lewis (Injured), Jarman Impey (Managed), Connor Macdonald (Omitted), Jack Gunston (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Has been impressive over the last 3 weeks, scoring 120, 112 and 112. Had a season low 39.1% CBA’s (9 CBA’s), but still scored 112. I would be getting only round 12 bye players as they are coming off their bye, so Mitchell could be a target after his round 14 bye for coaches looking to bring him in. Tough matchup against Freo, so hopefully Titch can put up another good score.

Andrew Brayshaw

If I had him, I wouldn’t have any hesitation in putting him captain this week. Great matchup against Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, where he has scores of 181, 95, 110, 116, 134, 111 and 131 this year for an average of 125.4!

Will Brodie

Will be interesting to see how Brodie goes with Nat Fyfe back in the team. I don’t see his role changing much, if at all, but could be a trade out candidate as he has his bye next week. Would likely be a luxury move as he has been so good. Hawks is a good matchup so should put up a good score.

Other players to watch: Sam Butler, Jackson Callow, Nat Fyfe, James Sicily, Sean Darcy, Caleb Serong

 

Brisbane vs St Kilda @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, mostly clear

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

Mitch Robinson, Joe Daniher

OUT

Jaxon Prior (Omitted), Darcy Fort (Omitted), Callum Ah Chee (Medi-Sub)

St Kilda

IN

Jack Higgins, Dan Butler

OUT

Ryan Byrnes (Omitted), Cooper Sharman (Omitted), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Neale

Continues to get it done every week, with another 104 last week against the tough Fremantle midfield. Another tough task against the Saints, and could potentially cop some attention, but he has been so good this year, especially at The Gabba, where he averages 109.3 in his career 34 games at the venue, an this year, 118, 86 (injured and tagged), 119, 113 and 143 (115.8 average).

Jack Sinclair

A really tempting option coming off his bye. In the 3 games before his bye, he had an average of 118 over that period. Only has 2 scores under 90 all season so it just shows how consitent he has been. A nice POD option to George Hewett around the same price.

Mitch Owens

The no.1 traded in player with a very impressive 95 in his last game before the bye. -8 breakeven and if you haven’t jumped on yet, I would be making the move this week 100%.

Other players to watch: Dayne Zorko, Jade Gresham, Keidean Coleman

 

North Melbourne vs GWS @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Jaidyn Stephenson, Jackson Archer, Charlie Lazzaro, Aaron Hall

OUT

Ben McKay (Injured)

GWS

IN

Nick Haynes, Lachie Whitfield, Jake Stein, Adam Kennedy, Braydon Preuss

OUT

Bobby Hill (Illness), Jarrod Brander (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Whitfield

Risky option as he hasn’t played since round 9, and hasn’t been great this season. I think this is largely due to him having injury niggles, and being played in the wrong position in the forward line. I expect Spike to put him back to his normal wing/half back role and if you don’t have enough to grab a Docherty, Hewett or Sinclair, I think it could be a play to grab Whitfiel, but I would probably prefer to see him for a game first.

Stephen Coniglio

A great underpriced option coming off his bye, with a role change into the midfield which looks to be what he will do for the rest of the season, as Mark McVeigh come out during the week saying we have settled with him in the midfield. If he does indeed continue this role, I would say he could average 100-105 for the remainder of the season, which would put him in the mix for a top 6 forward spot.

Aaron Hall

This is more a watch as he could be a massive target after his round 14 bye. Priced at 818k with a breakeven of 158. He will be under 800k, and if he looks good, could be a great target post his bye.

Other players to watch: James Peatling, Harry Perryman, Jed Anderson, Josh Kelly, Braydon Preuss, Jacob Wehr

 

Collingwood vs Melbourne @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Isaac Chugg, Finlay Macrae, Trey Ruscoe, Jamie Elliott

OUT

Reef McInnes (Injured)

Melbourne

IN

Daniel Turner, Michael Hibberd, Kade Chandler, Oskar Baker, Sam Weideman

OUT

Jayden Hunt (Omitted), Toby Bedford (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Darcy Cameron

Has been way more impressive than we could have predicted. Scored a season high 133 with a 52 point opening quarter. I think has been that good that when Grundy comes back, I see him playing 35%-45% in the ruck, so there is a possibility that he stays in our team after Grundy comes back.

Christian Salem

Solid last week for 94, slowed late but looked good nonetheless. Now priced quite cheap at 674k and should get cheaper this week,  he could be a target post his bye if you don’t have a huge amount of cash.

Max Gawn

A great fallback captain option in the final game of the round. Looked amazing last week against Sydney with a 149. Collingwood with Grundy out of the team have been giving up points to ruckmen, and with Melbourne losing back to back games, I expect the captain to lead from the front again and put up another big score to finish off the round.

Other players to watch: Christian Petracca, Jack Crisp, Jordan De Goey, Angus Brayshaw, Clayton Oliver,Nick Daicos

 

My Trades

Bailey Smith -> Docherty

Taranto -> Sinclair/Merrett

G Clark -> Marchbank/Wehr

These are my current trades as of this writing. I really want Doch this week, as I know he will be a top 6 defender. Tim Taranto needs to go now with him out again this week, so I’m looking at either Jack Sinclair or Zach Merrett. Sinclair has the edge just because I think he will be a top 6 defender, and is only 29k more than Merrett. Zach Merrett I am also really liking this week as he is really cheap, mostly because of that 51 score against Sydney. I think he can average 105-110 from here, making him a great buy. I am choosing Marchbank at this stage, as I am unsure whether Jacob Wehr will be named for GWS. If Wehr is named, I will be choosing him instead but I am going on the fact I think he could just miss out with Whitfield and Haynes back. Jordan Boyd is another option, but I think I would rather pay the extra 43k to get Marchbank for the added job security.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 13!

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Twitter: @baileyirrgang