Taylor Adams – Deck of DT 2022

Name: Taylor Adams
Team: Collingwood
Position: MID
Price: $846,000
Bye round: 14
2021 average: 100.9
2021 games played: 14
Predicted average: 114
Draft range: Second round

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Why should I pick him?

Taylor Adams is set for a massive 2022 as the main man in Collingwood’s engine room.

In a recent Q&A with the Herald Sun, Collingwood coach Craig McRae provided some insights into the playing positions of some players. He says that Scott Pendlebury will play across half-back with some time in the midfield but has been spending time in defence this pre-season. McRae follows that up by saying players like Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos and Brayden Maynard may roll through there [the midfield] at times. Pendlebury and Crisp averaged 56% and 40% CBAs in 2021 respectively. Adams himself averaged a healthy 77% CBAs which I can easily see increasing to 80%+ with more midfield responsibility.

With a full pre-season (i.e. Adams has attended every pre-season session (thanks to @Jen2310 for her Collingwood training insights)) under his belt, his injury concerns should be slightly alleviated. Adams does cop the “injury-prone” tag quite a bit but we saw him able to play out the full season as recently as 2020 where he pumped out a 113.6 average and before that in 2017 for a 114.7 average. It’s no coincidence these are his career-best averages. Thus, Adams has intrinsic value with season averages of 114.7 (2017) and 113.6 BCV (incl. Finals) making him a midfield keeper with 10+ points of upside.

Two injury-affected games in Rounds 4 and 10 with scores (TOG%) of 64 (57%) and 101 (71%) offer value on his current 100.9 average. If we remove those two scores (as we’re projecting him to not get injured), it bumps up Adams’ average to 103.9, which I see as his floor for 2022.

Adams only has the 3% ownership making him unique. We all know the delectable feeling of watching our POD go massive and everyone else in the competition ruing the fact they didn’t pick him. A great unique can easily send you rocketing up the ladder.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Injury-prone. History tells us that Adams is not exactly the most durable player and could miss games if any of his niggling soft tissue concerns pop up again from previous years. Last season he injured his knee (high-level MCL strain) in Round 4 (57% TOG), came back in Round 10 before missing another four rounds and returning in Round 15 to play out the rest of the season. In 2019 and 2018, he also missed multiple games.

The other question mark is Collingwood’s game plan under new coach Craig McRae. The Pies have been one of the perennial, elite Fantasy teams under Nathan Buckley but we won’t know how McCrae sets up his side until any pre-season practice matches. Having history around the Richmond coaching setup in 2016-2020, there could be a risk of Collingwood turning into an anti-Fantasy team à la Richmond but that seems on the extreme end of the range of outcomes for the Pies.

I’d argue that Adams has a competitive bye round (14), especially in the midfield. He’s competing with these other popular r14 midfield premiums:

PLAYER NAME	OWNERSHIP%	PRICED AT	PRICE
Lachie Neale	36%	94.5	$792k
Tom Mitchell	29%	115.6	$969k
Caleb Serong	25%	82.4	$691k
Clayton Oliver	10%	108.7	$912k
Christian Petracca	9%	110.9	$930k
Andrew Brayshaw	4%	104.3	$875k
Patrick Lipinski	3%	71.7	$606k
Taylor Adams	3%	100.9	$845k
Jy Simpkin	2%	95.5	$801k

Most teams will already have at least two of the above already so fitting in Adams will be tough, especially with the masses running with a four-to-six keeper setup. Those other players are popular for a reason and arguably represent more value than Adams himself.

Not to mention that most of the midfield rookies poised for a Round 1 debut have the r14 bye. Those include Jason Horne-Francis, Nick Daicos, and Josh Ward. Other cheapies including Finlay Macrae, Neil Erasmus, and Reef McInnes. Although most of these guys will be replaced before the bye rounds, its still worth diversifying your midfield keepers as a contingency plan if these r14 rookies do end up staying longer than expected or the rookies we’re trading in also have the r14 bye.

Adams only has the 3% ownership making him unique. We all know the disgusting feeling of watching our POD get injured on 49 points and everyone else in the competition rejoicing the fact they didn’t pick him. A great unique can easily send you plummeting down the ladder.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

I can see Adams easily hitting 110+ with a full pre-season heading into 2022 and my man has not left my squad since the game opened. It’s funny, I actually ended up writing more in the Why shouldn’t I pick him? section but Adams still remains locked in my side. Out of those r14 premiums, I’m only rolling with Mitchell and Neale, and fluctuating between five and six keepers (it changes daily as you can probably relate!) so I’m quite comfortable with my current midfield bye structure. I don’t think bye structures across each line is something a lot of coaches think about when selecting their initial squads but I think it’s a great edge to attack for the sole reason that a lot coaches aren’t thinking about it. That being said, this point could be completely moot once COVID inevitably messes with the season.

Has the role. Is fit. Has the value. Is a keeper. Is unique. Get amongst it.

 

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