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Deck of Dream Team

Tarryn Thomas – Deck of DT 2022

Thomas averaged 101 in his last seven, but Calvin has a few concerns.

Name: Tarryn Thomas
Team: Kangaroos
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $681,000
Bye round: 14
2021 average: 81
2021 games played: 21
Predicted average: 96
Draft range: Rounds 7-10

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Why should I pick him?

Thomas enters his fourth season and is one of the main players that are being targeted for a break-out season. Over his career to date he averaged 55 in his debut season, then 49 (injury effect year with only 6gms) and finally 81 last season. The trend is obvious and an average of 95 is not out of the equation.

The thing is… If you play in the guts, then you score more points.

Over the course of the year, Thomas gradually found himself attending more centre bounces. Over the first five games of the year, he averaged 24% of the teams CBAs. In his last five games he attended 50% of them.

Below are Thomas’ last three games of the year. As you can see, he was everywhere…

Subsequently, his scoring exploded. Before his bye last year Thomas was averaging just 71 and after his bye he averaged 93. He also averaged 101 in his last seven games.

Another thing to like about Thomas is the fact he can fill the stat line. He doesn’t rely on goals or tackles to score, instead he fills the lot. From round 11 onwards he was in elite company to be one of only four players to average 20 touches and a goal. In that company… Dusty, Zorko and Petracca.

After his bye he averaged 21 disposals, 5.5 marks and 4 tackles = 93pts.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Ben Cunnington (and others) play a big part in this equation. Our fingers are crossed that Cunnington returns ASAP after he underwent chemotherapy on a second detected cancer. He is expected to make a few recovery and we all hope that he does and gets back to his beast-like self.

Cunnington missed five games at the end of the season and that saw the door open for Thomas more than it ever has before and his scoring reflected this. In the four games that Cunnington missed at the end of the year that Thomas played in, he averaged 105. In games that Cunnington played in last year, Thomas only averaged 77. In fact, when playing alongside Cunnington he only registered one score in triple figures.

It’s simple… Cunnington effects the scoring of Thomas. Then you can throw into the mix players like Jed Anderson (if he gets vaxed) and Hugh Greenwood who weren’t there last year.

The Roos ranked last in contested possession in 2021. They want Greenwood and Anderson in the middle to assist Cunnington… which will push Thomas further down the line.

Kangaroo CBAs after the bye

Simpkin = 80%
Cunnington = 72% (6gms)
LDU = 61%
Anderson = 48% (5gms)
Thomas = 47%
Phillips = 34%
Stephenson = 20%

Does this mean that Thomas will received less CBAs than he did towards the end of last season. The answer is YES, he won’t be in the guts for 50% of the CBAs as he drops further down the line, now sitting behind Simpkin, LDU, Cunnington, Greenwoood and Anderson. They are the top tier players that North want in the middle. Thomas is in the next group.

Thomas will be used in the middle. But will he be used like he was at then end of the season when North were running out of options? This situation needs to be monitored throughout the pre-season.

We also need to remember that Thomas can kick goals. He booted 24.17 last year and was the third best avenue to goals for the Roos. This is another concern.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

Ok… so 17% of the Fantasy community are on board… and I am too. However, after digging a little deeper into Thomas, I’m not as convinced as what I was. I’m worried about the fact that North have people coming back into the team, old and new players that most likely sit ahead of Thomas in the pecking order for CBAs. I’m also worried about the fact that he did rank third for most goals at the club and number one for goal assists. He is a dangerous avenue to goals for the club and this is where he might end up with all the inclusions that were not there when we saw signs of a “breakout”.

With all that said, he is currently in my team. I can see him breaking out this season to average 90-100. He’s far from locked in my team though but for now… he’s there!

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6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. Roger

    January 19, 2022 at 7:20 am

    Great article Cal. I currently have him at f3, but I do have concerns on his midfield time

  2. BzG

    January 19, 2022 at 8:30 am

    Cal, the comparison of roles between Zorko, Dusty, and CP5 could be very relevant. Where do these 3 stand in score involvements for their respective clubs? There may be a case where Thomas’ role maybe retained despite the return of Cunnington and, it would appear that LDU may also have benefited from Cunnington’s absence.
    Rnd19 heat maps also tell a story. Thomas tonned up and his map was expansive accros the middle, he also kicked 4 goals. By comparison, LDU, Cunnington and Simpkin’s maps are very centre circle dominant. It appears that with Cunnington out in the following games, Thomas’ map mirrored Cunnington and the others, and the goals dried up.
    Points in question: it would appear that Cunnington’s absence promoted LDU while restricting Thomas’ goal scoring and, if the comparison with Zorko is accurate, Thomas’ is required in the middle to open up scoring chains and kicking goals himself while LDU and others remain camped on the middle. I think there is a case suggesting Cunnington won’t reduce Thomas’ fantasy scoring, and seems ro assist him, while LDU’s scores may in fact suffer from Cunnington’s return. Noble loved Zorko in this role while at the Lions, and I suspect views Thomas in the same light. And Zorko remains a mid despite his score involvements. Zorko is 32 and Thomas 21… a stats comparison seems to show Thomas building his tank and TOG% approaching Zorko’s and seems destined to meet or overtake him in the coming year or 2. Looking to this season, should Thomas make a couple more tackles and take another mark each game, run a few more meters, then he will attain premo status. Inside mids like Cunnington should only promote Thomas output. The issue for North, that I can see, is settling and developing their forwards, releasing Thomas to play up and down the field. What is certain is that with 2 top 8 draft picks aged 21 & 22, the Thomas & LDU combination is “delicious” and I’m bullish with both. (Ps. I’m a Lions fan… and sorely miss CDs annual Prospectus tomes)

    • BzG

      January 19, 2022 at 8:44 am

      Another thought…. should we be comparing and tracking Thomas development with Zorko, Dusty and CP5, or would Sam Walsh be a better bench mark?

  3. constantgin

    January 19, 2022 at 9:08 am

    Watch for me atm for F3 spot. Need to see if he gets mid time or not in preseason games.

  4. DBoms

    January 20, 2022 at 4:57 am

    Interesting read this one Cal, good food for thought.

    I currently have had him as F3 all pre season, but have had the same concerns that you have raised here.

    I think the big factor not being considered, though, is that Thomas is the future of North. They won’t be holding back their prized guy, coming into his fourth year, where natural progression should be taking him into the elite category.
    I do think his CBA’s won’t be super high, but I still think he will play a mid role. Guys like Cunnington, Anderson and Greenwood can only play contested inside (actually that’s disrespectful to Cunnington and Greenwood – both very good marking targets when they go forward – maybe they will be given forward time as they are both a little older?).
    Regardless, TT is your classic attacking weapon, the guy you want with the ball forward of centre (Dusty, CP5, Zorko, Bont, De Goey, Stringer types). I would expect he plays a mid role with lower CBA’s. Start forward, then play as an attacking mid. He won’t get the CBA’s. but he’ll be around the ball, and they’ll want it in his hands every time they go forward/ Maybe his tackles will drop a touch, but I think disposals and goals and marks will be up.

    You would have to imagine North will have a huge youth focus this year. They have so much young talent coming through and would want to prioritise their development. JHF, TT, LDU, Comben, Edwards, Phillips, Powell and co wil be Norths future, and TT is central to that, and could be anything.

    • BzG

      January 20, 2022 at 8:29 pm

      I agree. Prototype goal kicking mid… on the up. If, however, the earlier comment is true, he will have to address free kicks against. Ducking into tackles is hard to unlearn. Still worth starting, and watching for the early rounds.

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