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Deck of Dream Team

Caleb Serong – Deck of DT 2022

Jack looks at the posterboy for the 2022 third-year breakout.

Name: Caleb Serong
Team: Fremantle
Position: MID
Price: $691,000
Bye round: 14
2021 average: 82.4
2021 games played: 22
Predicted average: 92
Draft range: Tenth Round

Click here for 2022 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Serong has shown over the last two seasons that he is a very good footballer, whether that be in a fantasy perspective, or in general, with or without the help of umpires (Yes I’m still salty about his goal from out of bounds last year in the derby). His ability to score great fantasy numbers is clear for all to see with a high score of 143 against the Roos last season. Towards the end of the season Serong found some great form, averaging 117 in his last 3 games.

The real upside for Serong is the loss of Cerra to the dockers side. There were four games last season that Serong played with no Cerra in the team. In those games he scored 143 against the previously mentioned Roos, 71 against the Eagles in a game no one stood up for the Dockers, 75 against the Lions, and 116 on the road to the Saints. That gives him an average of 101.25 without Cerra, almost 19 more than his average.

With no Cerra, Fyfe getting older and playing further up the ground, or in his more favoured position…..injured, there is a greater opportunity for Caleb to play more midfield minutes, hopefully increasing his time on ground (TOG) in the process as the teams reliance on him grows. If his TOG improves, then there is no reason that his scores in the 70s/80s can become 90s

The biggest question all fantasy coaches will be asking is will he have a third year breakout? It is quite often considered that players start to find consistent fantasy form – particularly midfielders – when they enter their third year. Usually this is an impact of them getting their fitness routine to a consistent basis, getting a bigger frame, and greater confidence. Serong will surely, as mentioned above, be more relied upon by Longmuir to play a greater role in the team.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

It’s difficult to not see the upside in Serong for his price, however there are some concerns to consider before locking him into your side. His TOG has always been a huge concern in fantasy. So often last year he would look to be heading towards a solid score, and then spend half the last quarter on the pine.

His TOG for the start of last season didn’t go above 80% until round 19, with him usually only playing 72% of games on the ground throughout the season. In comparison his fellow midfielder in Brayshaw was consistently playing 80% of game time. It might not sound like lots, but that could increase the score considerably, particularly late in games when more points are on offer.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

In last years deck of DT Serong was labeled a King, and whilst he scored well at seasons end, we didn’t quite see the form we would have liked throughout the year to justify that rating. However for his price, and with the increased reliance on him in the Dockers midfield we could easily see Serong’s score increase by at least 10 points this season, if not more.

For his price he could prove to be a great bargain, especially when he is only priced $55k more than the start of last season and with the numbers he scored 0ver the last few rounds.

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8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Brad

    January 10, 2022 at 8:04 am

    92 underselling him imo. I see 100-105

    • The Chosen Won™®©

      January 10, 2022 at 8:41 am

      I think his prediction is spot on..

      Good Luck in 2022™®©

      • DBoms

        January 10, 2022 at 11:12 am

        I think 92 is underselling as well. Other change not mentioned above is that he often played a run with role last year, which will have done wonders for his improvement as he progresses to no run with roles (I would expect) this year and beyond.

        With the expected increase in TOG, increased reliance on him and dropping the run with roles, plus if you look at last year, the majority of his high scores were with a key player out (Fyfe, Cerra, Brayshaw), which feeds into his improved role this year, I see 100 as a minimum.

        Currently sitting as my M5.

  2. Constantgin

    January 10, 2022 at 9:25 am

    Lock for me at m5

  3. Blake

    January 10, 2022 at 11:57 am

    M5 and doubt he’s moving for me

  4. Alex

    January 10, 2022 at 1:02 pm

    As M4-6, he needs to average 100 to make it a worthwhile pick.

    He’s in my side at the moment and it’s between two of him, Yeo and M Crouch (if he gets a good pre-season in) for my M4 and 5.

    For mine, it’s really whether the pre-season tends to suggest the following:

    – TOG to 80%+
    – CBAs in pre-season and language from J-Lo in the media make clear that Brayshaw and Serong are going to carry the midfield load this year, with Fyfe and Mundy doing more of the third to fourth midfield role and time forward.
    – J-Lo loves a secondary for his midfielders, so assessing what that role is if he indeed has one (that will also be a watch for W Brodie, if he is to play early on)
    – Freeing him up from defensive mid duties

    As a Freo fan, it would be baffling if J-Lo didn’t unleash him this year. Freo were so dangerous towards the end of the season when he and Brayshaw were allowed to hunt the ball and play better roles and higher TOG (case in point, the Derby for Serong and the Tigers game for Brayshaw). Provided he finds a role for Fyfe on his return from injury and as his fitness improves that doesn’t impede on Brayshaw and Serong, the two of them should increase their AF output significantly

  5. Squid

    January 10, 2022 at 3:37 pm

    I see numbers from around the predicted up to possibly triple figures, those expecting more are overly optomistic, not saying it wont happen but expecting 100+, there are not many guys you expect to produce like that, Serong is years away from adding his name to that list.

    Now mid 90’s most years would be plenty of meat on the bone to take a punt on the breakout, however this year we are in a La Nina year for mid pricers, with so many options available to us I feel there are better options, Yeo and Crouch if fit are just 2 from my $450-$700k list.

    So, not a bad pick, could even pay off but I’ll be looking elsewhere, though if he drops a 150 in a meaningful pre season hit out some reassessment may be required.

    • Scott

      January 11, 2022 at 8:04 pm

      Serong is not years away from averaging triple figures. He has shown on multiple occasions that he has bucket loads of fantasy ability, but just needs to be trusted a little more. Now Cerra is gone, that will come. No way an injury prone and always inconsistent fantasy performer Yeo is ahead of him at this stage.

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