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2021 Hindsight Heroes

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Baked Beams looks at how you could have won AFL Fantasy Classic by 6,574 points.

Everyone loves a bit of hindsight. “If only I picked Cumming over Markov… I should’ve got Hall last week it was so obvious…” We’ve all said something like that before, but what if you actually had these powers? So what if you could actually go back and change things? Well, here we go.

If you picked the following team at the start of the year and made appropriate trades, you would have won AFL Fantasy by 6574 points. 6 and a half thousand. Along the way, you would pick up the round prize 20/23 weeks for the highest scoring team (including a massive 2902 in R20 and 2847 in R23), the others being rank 2,3 and 241 and have a team value over $3mil more than the actual highest, at $22.6mil. And to top it off, your bank is empty after all trades.

Starting line up

Before I get on with the team, here are some takeaways:

1. Rookies are vital. Apart from early rounds, almost every week the team had everyone on the bench playing. This allowed for maximum cash generation, and cover for when things go wrong. Of course, with hindsight you can field rookies over premiums, but even without the benefits are huge with a full bench.

2. Chase value. The premise of this team is basically inflating the team salary to a point where you can do whatever trades you please. Chasing cheaper options who will make buckets of cash like I.Cumming, T.Walker, C.Jiath are all key factors to this team succeeding. Most of the time they were only 50-100k more than a fattened rookie and when trading, were only 50k off an uber premo themselves.

3. Sideways trading actually works. Only 13 genuine upgrades happened over the year, opposed to 19 sideways trades. You often get criticise for doing too much sideways trading, but the strategy works. Obviously hindsight makes it easier to say this, but it has merit.

4. Set and forget ruckman strategy is best. Sacrificing the salary cap for 2 reliable rucks worked well, as it allowed trades to be used for other more important issues.

!DOWNLOAD THE SPREADSHEET VIA THIS LINK TO VIEW A MORE EXPANDED BREAKDOWN!

RDSCOREACTUAL
TOP
ROUND
RANK
CAPTAINTOTAL
SCORE
LEADTEAM
VALUE
(REM
SALARY)
TRADES
1230021631Sheed
138
2300137$12,727,000
($273,000)
2221921141Miller
130
4519352$13,324,000
($230,000)
D.Sheed > T.Miller
3241422901Grundy
152
6933825$14,279,000
($212,000)
T.Brockman > H.Chapman
4221821481Miller
140
91511091$15,076,000
($212,000)
None needed.
5219521591Dunkley
151
113461156$15,742,000
($292,000)
B.Campbell > S.Flanders
J.Bowes > R.Laird
6259224161Ziebell
170
139381555$15,929,000
($644,000)
T.Walker > D.Parish
E.Gulden > R.Byrnes
7228522181Hall
143
162231762$16,641,000
($625,000)
J.Dunkley > J.Kelly
H.Chapman > A.Hall
8229723383Hall
133
185201849$16,673,000
($909,000)
J.Rowe > M.Owies
J.Koschitzke > R.Collier-Dawkins
9225322491Parish
131
207731945$17,174,000
($831,000)
L.Young > C.Poulter
O.Fantasia > D.Zorko
10256724181Macrae
153
233402212$18,017,000
($412,000)
T.Powell > L.Whitfield
J.Stephenson > M.Bontempelli
11255024091Miller
160
258902452$18,614,000
($233,000)
C.Warner > C.Weightman
M.Bergman > J.Steele
12202120322Parish
160
279112720$18,705,000
($537,000
C.Jiath > J.Amartey
R.Collier-Dawkins > T.Bianco
O.Markov > J.Crisp
13213920881Kelly
152
300502942$19,101,000
($551,000)
N.Hind > B.Maynard
D.Zorko > N.Haynes
N.Cox > T.Mitchell
1418912142214Taranto
145
319413102$19,083,000
($893,000)
B.Maynard > D.Rich
R.Byrnes > L.Bramble
M.Flynn > T.Goldstein
C.Poulter > J.Sharp
15256624671Zorko
142
345073382$19,591,000
($688,000)
J.Jordon > M.Kennedy
N.Haynes > D.Zorko
16264225491Steele
157
371493631$20,098,000
($583,000)
M.Owies > P.Dangerfield
I.Cumming > J.De Goey
17255725091Miller
155
397064003$20,865,000
($233,000)
D.Robertson > J.Dawson
S.Flanders > J.Short
18257525111Steele
149
422814422$21,062,000
($259,000)
C.Weightman > R.Marshall
J.Amartey > T.Ruscoe
19264424951Laird
142
449254873$21,128,000
($425,000)
D.Parish > J.Lyons
J.Ziebell > A.Cerra
20290226511Steele
162
478275377$21,456,000
($348,000)
T.Bianco > C.Wingard
M.Bontempelli > C.Guthrie
21267625801Mitchell
157
505035763$21,338,000
($758,000)
C.Mills > B.Hardwick
A.Cerra > C.Serong
22265425251Kelly
141
531576147$21,937,000
($359,000)
T.Ruscoe > O.Wines
L.Whitfield > C.Salem
23284726041Dawson
158
560046574$22,371,000
($0)
J.Sharp > J.Lloyd
L.Bramble > T.Thomas
 

So, there you have it. A team 6574 points ahead. As mentioned earlier, sideways trading carried this team through.

Trade breakdown:

Sideways: 19
Upgrades: 13
Downgrades: 12

Having only 13 genuine upgrades you would think would make it hard to have almost everyone $650k+ on the bench, but those sideways trades from rookies to value picks made the difference.

Only 4 players were not traded out of the team, Macrae, Keays and the 2 rucks, Gawn and Grundy. Miller came in round 2 so you could count him. And for some fun, Zorko was traded in, out and back in again due to form/suspension. Overall, 74 different players were used.

Final team

Ah, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

– Baked Beams ✌️

@baked_beams on twitter

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Brian Smith

    September 13, 2021 at 11:19 pm

    ARGH!!! Reliving all the pain of the mistakes in my trades – should’ve, would’ve, could’ve, Didn’t!!
    Thanks mate ;)

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