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Weekend Forecast – Round 18

All you need to know ahead of round 18 thanks to Bailey.

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

We get ever closer to our fantasy finals, with most coaches getting their final rookies off the field, or fixing up injured premiums like Lachie Whitfield and Kyle Langford. I have just Whitfield so I like many coaches are contemplating whether to hold him for this week or trade him to another premium.

 

Thursday Night Footy – Fremantle vs Geelong @ Optus Stadium

In a one sided affair in wet conditions over in Perth, Geelong conformably won by 69 points, and we got some decent scores out of it as well.

Sam Menegola (129) – This is exactly what sort of score I have wanted to see from Menegola since Duncan has been out of the team. I think after a game like this, he could be a cheap option if you can’t get to anyone else. He has a proven history of scoring well, will have a low breakeven to make some coin, and his next 2 games are against Richmond and North Melbourne.

Cam Guthrie (118) – Another underpriced premium who could be an option for coaches next week. He was back to his best with 35 touches, 7 marks but only 2 tackles. He also had 2 behinds so this could have been a massive score. Will be around 740k or so next week and if Neale and Adams rise too much this week and you can’t afford them, Guthrie I think is still a great option.

Patrick Dangerfield (105) – Great game from Danger tonight, considering he played a fair bit forward I think due to Geelong winning comfortably. Only scored 8 points in the 2nd quarter so if that was bigger, he too could have been massive. Still in my eyes a top 6 forward.

Sean Darcy (103) – A great night turned into a disappointing night for Darcy owners. He was on 102 at 3QT and you thought this could be a 130, then injures his knee within the first few minutes of the last quarter. It looks like he could be out for a couple of weeks with MCL damage. Just keep an eye on it as he was injured earlier this year and played the next week. but I think the injury is a little more severe this time unfortunately.

Andrew Brayshaw (96) – Considering the Freo midfield was battered all night, did a nice job to finish on 96. Has been great all year, and he should continue to do his thing for the rest of the season.

Isaac Smith (91) – Probably isn’t talked about enough with the top 6 forwards, but I think he is there about, maybe not top 6 but at least top 10. Has been super consistent all year, as he has only gone below 74 on 1 occasion. He has 11 scores out of 17 this year above 90, including 6 tons, but nothing above 112. If you can’t afford a Dunkley, Zorko, Josh Kelly or someone like that, I think you can do a lot worse than Isaac Smith.

Tom Stewart (81) – Had a big 1st half with 66 points but faded in the 2nd half  with only 15 points due to a fair amount of rain in the 2nd half. Regardless of the circumstances, he is just about the safest player to get to 80 points.

Nat Fyfe (64) – Not a great night for Fyfe, due to getting well beaten and his banged up shoulder. I would put a line through getting him in this year, and if you own him, I would trade. He could get a knock in the 1st quarter of a game, score 10-20 points and get subbed out and lose a heap of cash for you. A sideways swap to Isaac Smith could be a move to consider.

Now, let’s get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Richmond vs Brisbane @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, cloudy with light rain (75% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Kane Lambert, Toby Nankervis, Matthew Parker (Debut)

OUT

Riley Collier-Dawkins (Omitted), Thomson Dow (Omitted), Patrick Naish (Omitted), Jack Ross (Medi-Sub)

Brisbane

IN

Tom Fullarton, Ryan Lester, Jaxon Prior

OUT

Marcus Adams (Injured), Callum Ah Chee (Omitted), Eric Hipwood (Injured), Rhys Mathieson (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Dustin Martin

Can the champ bounce back? I hope so as he has been really underwhelming for a while now. He hasn’t gone over 100 since round 12, with a highest score of 88 in his last 3. Brisbane and Geelong in the next 2 are tough, but with the Tigers almost down and out, they need a big game from their star and I think we could see it tonight.

Jack Riewoldt

Congrats on making it to game 300 Jack. Amazing career so far and have a decent year after having a down year in 2020. I have a sneaky feeling that the Tigers are going to get up for you as well.

Matthew Parker

Making his debut for the Tigers, has had some great VFL numbers since joining them through the mid season draft, but at 308k, I don’t think he is an option in classic. You could take flyer on him in draft though.

Lachie Neale

One of the best underpriced options to bring in this week. Looked to be over his injuries with a 116 last week, and now has 3 tons in a row.

Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Gold Coast

IN

Noah Anderson, Josh Corbett, Caleb Graham

OUT

Rory Atkins (Medi-Sub), Sam Day (Injured), Hugh Greenwood (Injured), Oleg Markov (Injured)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Hayden Crozier, Josh Dunkley, Aaron Naughton, Roarke Smith

OUT

Mitch Hannan (Omitted), Tom Liberatore (Managed), Anthony Scott (Omitted), Mitch Wallis (Omitted), Lewis Young (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jack Bowes

Still a decent cheaper option in defence, and backed up his 98 two weeks ago with a 93 last week. Since Collins has been back in the side, Bowes has done less of a rebounding role and more of the role we saw him thrive in at the start of the year. If you can’t afford anything else, I think Bowes is a decent option.

Lachie Hunter

I am quite nervous about what we might see Hunter do this week. He has a good matchup, but with Dunkley back in the team and Roarke Smith also back, will we see Hunter return back to his half forward role?

Jack Macrae

I am expecting a big bounce back here from Macrae, and what better to do it against one of his favourite teams to play. He averages 120.4 in his 10 games against Gold Coast.

Josh Dunkley

Could you bring him straight into your team? I don’t know, but what I do know is if he does what we saw in the first 6 rounds, he will be a great option to bring into your team throughout the final 5 weeks of the season.

 

Melbourne vs Hawthorn @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, steady light rain (85% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

 

OUT

Tom Sparrow (Medi-Sub)

Hawthorn

IN

Mitch Lewis, Tim O’Brien, Ned Reeves

OUT

Jonathon Ceglar (Injured), Oliver Hanrahan (Medi-Sub), Changkuoth Jiath (Injured), Jack Scrimshaw (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Christian Salem

3 tons in a row, and looks like a great option to bring into your defence for 698k. The big thing I like about Salem is he has a ceiling, with scores of 119, 112, 141, and 126 already this year. Not many defenders have that sort of ceiling, and he has been consistent too, with only 3 scores under 76 all year, and lowest score of 98 in his last 4.

Clayton Oliver

Can we please see the 110-120+ Clayton Oliver from the first 11 rounds of the year? I hope so, because as an owner, as you are probably aware of, I have not been able to enjoy the experience thus far. Only 1 ton in his last 5, that being only a 104, and has now dropped to 743k.

Lachlan Bramble

With both Jiath and Scrimshaw injured, it looks like Bramble will continue his role from last week off half back. he gathered 27 touches, to go along with 6 marks and some kick ins to get to 99 points. Still great to use as your final or one of your final rookies on field.

Ned Reeves

Ned is finally back in, and a relief for owners. He has a breakeven of -22 so he is sure to shoot up in price over the next few weeks.

St Kilda vs Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, light rain expected (75% chance of rain) ***NOT SURE WHETHER ROOF WILL BE OPEN OR NOT***

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

 

OUT

Josh Battle (Injured)

Port Adelaide

IN

Riley Bonner, Peter Ladhams, Boyd Woodcock

OUT

Zak Butters (Injured), Tom Clurey (Omitted), Steven Motlop (Injured), Connor Rozee (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Rowan Marshall

Hasn’t set the world on fire this year, due to injuries but has looked better, along with the Saints over the last couple of weeks with scores of 91 and 79. Priced at only 562k and a breakeven of 90, if we see something good this week, could be an underpriced option we could jump on. Also good cover in your forward line for Gawn and Grundy in case of an injury.

Dan Houston

With Bonner back into the team, hopefully we see a better Dan Houston this week. He tends to score better with Bonner in the team, and hopefully for his owners that comes to fruition Saturday night.

 

North Melbourne vs Essendon @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, sunny

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Atu Bosenavulagi, Tom Campbell, Kyron Hayden, Lachie Young

OUT

Ben Cunnington (Managed)

Essendon

IN

Nick Bryan, Sam Durham (Debut), Dyson Heppell, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher

OUT

Kyle Langford (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jaidyn Stephenson

Could you take a punt of Stephenson? If you have De Goey, or should I say De Goat, already, then he could be a potential option. After scoring a massive 150 last week with 38 touches, he now has a breakeven of 46. You could ride that for a few weeks as I think he will continue his good form with games against Essendon and Carlton in his next 2.

Jordan Ridley

A bit of a watch here for Ridley as Heppell is back in the team. We know that when all of Ridley, Heppell, Hind and Redman are back there, they all tend to score between 60 and 90, with Heppell normally scoring the most.

 

Collingwood vs Carlton @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, cloudy

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Mason Cox, Jack Ginnivan (Debut), Caleb Poulter, Tom Wilson

OUT

Will Kelly (Injured)

Carlton

IN

Zac Fisher, Josh Honey, Liam Jones, Lochie O’Brien

OUT

Will Setterfield (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jordan De Goey

Still underpriced and a great option to bring in this week. Has been great over the last 5 weeks playing in the midfield, with 4 tons in those weeks, and 124 and 117 in his last 2 which had 32 and 29 disposals respectively. And if what De Goat said in the podcast from last night is anything to go by, it should continue.

Taylor Adams

Another one of these underpriced premium options with the likes of Neale. Tough call between Adams and Neale, and to be honest, you can’t go wrong with either. Adams should be great again this week, and continue to rise towards 800k.

Sam Walsh

Has an amazing run of games to finish the year, starting with Collingwood on Sunday arvo. Has been great since his tagged score of 55 in round 14, with 123, 128 and 132 in his last 3, while people have tried to tag him the last 2 weeks.

 

Adelaide vs West Coast @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, mainly cloudy

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Darcy Fogarty, Elliott Himmelberg, Tom Lynch, Andrew McPherson, Taylor Walker

OUT

Ben Davis (Medi-Sub), Tom Doedee (Injured)

West Coast

IN

Harry Edwards, Mark Hutchings, Xavier O’Neill, Connor West (Debut), Bailey Williams

OUT

Brendon Ah Chee (Injured), Tom Barrass (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Andrew Gaff

Every time I see Gaff score under 100 points and Steele score over 100, I just think what could have been, as I had the choice between the 2 when Rockliff was named out in the first round. I went with Gaff and besides rounds 3, 5 and 8, I have been really disappointed. But lets look ahead shall we. The Eagles need to respond, and do it quick smart if they want to stay in the top 8. The Eagles next 5 games, Adelaide, St Kilda, Collingwood, Melbourne and Fremantle. Lets hope we see a good run from Gaff, because us owners need it.

Tim Kelly

Just a watch on Tim Kelly, as he left the track early on Wednesday with what looked like him grabbing at the same knee he injured this year. 568k is a bargain for a guy of Kelly’s quality, and I had him coming in this week, but that injury has me worried so I will wait week to see how he goes.

Connor West

Another mid season draftee making his debut, and this time it is Connor West. Has great numbers in the WAFL this yeas, averaging 104 across his 3 games for West Coast and West Perth. Even has shown a ceiling, with scores of 132, 124 and 118. Great option to bring in this week, most likely for bench but could play him or do a bit of loopholing with guys like Amartey and Bianco.

 

GWS vs Sydney @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, clear skies

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

Tanner Bruhn, Stephen Coniglio, Matt Flynn, Xavier O’Halloran, Zach Sproule, Jake Stein, Matt Boer

OUT

Lachie Ash (Omitted), Bobby Hill (Managed), Shane Mumford (Injured), Lachie Whitfield (Injured)

Sydney

IN

James Rowbottom, Callum Sinclair, Dylan Stephens

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Isaac Cumming

With both the game being moved from windy MARS Stadium and Lachie Ash being dropped, I expect Isaac Cumming to return to form this week. The 2 games Ash didn’t play this year were in rounds 14 and 15, and Cumming scored a 119 and a 106 respectively.

Jake Lloyd

Underpriced, and looked to be back to his normal role taking the majority of kick ins. Scored a 116, which included 12 kick in where he played on from all but one of them. The only other player to take a kick in for the Swans was Harry Cunningham, and he only took 1. With Dawson moving to a wing, if that continues, Lloyd should return to similar form of the last few years, and at 673k, and a juicy run of games to finish the year, great option.

My Trades

Newcombe/Jones/Bianco -> West

Poulter -> De Goey

So simple downgrade upgrade this week. Bringing in West, whether that is for Newcombe, Jones or Bianco I am unsure. At this stage, I think Newcombe is the one out of the 3 I will trade out, especially seeing he is an emergency and could be the sub. I have also thought about going Sam Durham over West but leaning towards West at this stage, but that could change, especially with Durham being named. Then I am upgrading Poulter to De Goat. Good to have De Goat as part of my team again!

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 18!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. JMD567

    July 16, 2021 at 2:33 pm

    Hey Bailey
    Have the issue where I have to trade out Whitfield and Markov. I am getting DeGoey for certain just don’t no who to choose for the other trade in
    Tim Kelly, Jake Stringer, David Swallow, Jack Billings, Matthew Kennedy

    • Aby Benny

      July 16, 2021 at 3:01 pm

      stringer and billings not as reliable. I’d go kelly if he isn’t injured and plays this week.

      • JMD567

        July 16, 2021 at 3:08 pm

        What do you think of Nic Newman?

        • Bailey

          July 16, 2021 at 5:49 pm

          Hey JMD567. I answered your question in detail on my livestream video of the Weekend Forecast but in short I would go Stringer due to Kelly potential injury

        • Aby Benny

          July 16, 2021 at 6:56 pm

          good run coming up

  2. Lewy

    July 16, 2021 at 3:05 pm

    Nice read mate. Playing for league win only. Was tempted to trade out Whit for a player such as Touk or Wines etc (will I reach them otherwise?!) but playing safe instead and upgrading one of my several onfield rookies to a mid-pricer DEF.

    • Bailey

      July 16, 2021 at 5:51 pm

      Appreciate man, thank you. I did answer this question as well on the live stream podcast in more detail but I would keep Whitfield and trade a rookie to someone like Jack Bowes

  3. Harry

    July 16, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    Really struggling whether to pick Newman 610 or Lloyd 673 pls help

    • Bailey

      July 16, 2021 at 5:53 pm

      I answered this question as well in more detail on the podcast but 100% go Lloyd

      • Harry

        July 16, 2021 at 6:20 pm

        Thanks mate ill have a listen now

  4. Miyagi-san

    July 16, 2021 at 5:51 pm

    Hey Bails (and legends!)
    Moving CJ and Foley (bench) on this weekend, welcoming in West for a bench spot, which just leaves my field spot to fill with 629k. Can be any line due to DPP, tossing up between
    – Stringer + 1k (F6)
    – Bowes + 77k (D6)
    – T.Kelly + 61k (M7)

    Just leaves Bramble on field at M8 and culling Amartey/Bianco next week to hopefully get last rook off field – hence thinking of some options with cash. Any thoughts legends??

    • Bailey

      July 16, 2021 at 5:59 pm

      Hey Miyagi-san. Ahaha you just missed the live stream podcast and I could have answered the question in more detail. Out of those 3 I would go Stringer because of Kelly’s injury worry, and I think Stringer is better than Bowes even though Bowes is a good option still. You also have Jaidyn Stephenson as well who I would go over Stringer if you want to get him instead? What I would do though is cull either Amartey or Bianco, which would give you an extra 100k and I would get someone like Salem, Rich, Lloyd, Gaff (if you want to be bold and risky) or De Goat if you don’t have him. Ahaha that would be my detailed version of your question

  5. Jacko

    July 17, 2021 at 12:20 am

    Ok so question. Now that dusty has gone down and possibly out for a while. Do I continue with a planned O’Brien to Grundy even though I have a rookie on field or should I upgrade the last rookie to Tim kelly or Jack Bowes as that’s the best I could get for my last upgrade.

    • Vivo4r3

      July 17, 2021 at 4:44 am

      Dusty will probably only miss a week at most.

    • Bailey

      July 17, 2021 at 6:48 am

      If that’s the case, I would be getting rid of your last rookie off field. Even if Dusty only misses a week or no time at all, we don’t know what carnage awaits us today, tomorrow or even during the week. Grundy is a must have but I still think getting rookies off field is more of a priority in my opinion. However, if it is Bramble and you can only get to Tim Kelly (injury worry) or Bowes then getting Grundy could be the option. It comes down to do you want Bowes/O’Brien or lets say Grundy/Bramble. ahah I would probably rather Grundy and Bramble at this point but I guess both Bowes and O’Brien should give you decent enough scores whereas we have only seen 1 game from Bramble in this half back role so far

  6. Justin Stitchup

    July 17, 2021 at 7:35 am

    G’day Bailey,
    Who would you field?
    Bianco v Blues
    or
    Highmore v Port?
    Thanks man

    • Bailey

      July 17, 2021 at 7:59 am

      I think I would trust Highmore just out of the 2, as we have seen him go a bit bigger in recent weeks. If you can do it, I would loophole Highmore on your bench, and if he scores well, put a non playing defender on field. And if he scores poorly, just play Bianco. But if you can’t do that, I would go Highmore

  7. Tim

    July 17, 2021 at 10:55 am

    Cripps 72
    Heeney 66
    Whitfield 77
    Parish 84
    Langford 85
    Pendles 85
    Zorko 97
    Dangerfield 80
    Neale 86
    De Goey ??
    Premos scores on the week traded in since halfway through the season. Sorry to De Goey owners this week.

    • Bailey

      July 17, 2021 at 3:35 pm

      Ahaha I’m bringing him in as well so let’s hope De Goat continues his good form this week

  8. jay

    July 17, 2021 at 12:59 pm

    Absolutely hate it when an early game throws up scores to wreck the weekend….and you also have to assign one of your trades for the next round on that instead of something more luxury — thanks Dusty — never again.

    Hindsight says I should have played Dusty as a bench loophole option.

    And before people cry that he was injured, he only played 60% game time, so was only tracking for 75 at best if he went a full game (usually 80-85% game time for him). So he was a crap anyway.

  9. Den

    July 17, 2021 at 1:13 pm

    T Kelly vs M Kennedy???

    • Bailey

      July 17, 2021 at 3:37 pm

      I would go Kennedy there just due to this injury worry with Tim Kelly

  10. jay

    July 17, 2021 at 4:12 pm

    houston = T R A S H

    10 points after halftime – so far. Lift!

    • jay

      July 17, 2021 at 4:14 pm

      That includes a zero point final quarter so far with 10 mins to go.

  11. Bec

    July 17, 2021 at 6:47 pm

    sorry peeps, I think I broke Touk

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

  12. JT & Frenchy, Gangsta Boyz

    July 17, 2021 at 8:01 pm

    What’s wrong with big Maxy?? Off to a slow start

  13. Bill

    July 18, 2021 at 12:03 am

    Never change your mind when you have Mitchell vc.

    • Scott

      July 18, 2021 at 6:32 pm

      I agree. Changed in last two minutes to Macrae than worse still put the C on Grundy 🤬

  14. Bec

    July 18, 2021 at 8:13 pm

    Haynes was on the never again list, then I think I had beer glasses on and thought he was doing ok.
    Now he’s on the never never again list

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