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Calvin's Captains

Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 18

After nailing 3×130+ scores last week, Calvin claims he’s BACK! Who has he served up here?

Welcome back you bloody awesome legends to another edition of Calvin’s Captains.

CALVIN’S TOP-TEN

#1 – Touk Miller v Bulldogs

Saturday @ Metricon

  • Averaging 132 in his last six with scores of 155 and 141 in his last two.
  • Averages 131 at home in his five games this year.
  • In round 17 the Swans scored 4×100+ against the Dogs last week with Lloyd 116 and Mills 116 leading the way.
  • In round 16, the Roos scored 5×100+ against the Dogs with Hall 134 and Cunnington 131 topping the list.

FLAG: Dogs are the No. 1 hardest this year, but over the last two weeks they have been scored against with ease… against some pretty average Fantasy players. No offense.

#2 – Brodie Grundy v Carlton

Sunday @ the MCG

  • Rucks v De-Kon have been pretty solid with Stanley (72), Darcy (116) and O’Brien (93) the most recent.
  • 122 (this year), 113, 149, 103 and 141 Grundy last five against the Blues
  • Been in great form scoring 139, 99 and 118 in his last three.

FLAG: Just two scores over 120 in his last eight this year.

#3 – Jarryd Lyons v Richmond

Friday @ the MCG

  • Had 115 on the Tigers already this year.
  • Great VC option on Friday night and has a ceiling
  • 84, 133, 91 and 161 his last four scores. Big numbers in there
  • Tigers suck and gave Collingwood 4×115+ scores last week with Adams dominating for the midfielders with 131.

FLAG: Not a regular to the MCG

#4 – Aaron Hall v Essendon

Sunday @ Marvel Stadium

  • Essendon are the fourth easiest for defenders to score against in the last five weeks.
  • He had 122 on the Bombers in round 10.
  • Doesn’t rain at Marvel where Hall averages 126 in his last four.
  • Against Essendon… Adelaide defenders: Kelly 104 (12m), Smith 102 (8m) and Butts 69 (8m) were solid last week and before that Tom Stewart 110 (13m), Atkins 106 (5m) and Bews 81 (8m) all found plenty with “marks” here being the key.

FLAG: No flag. Only if they leave the roof open and it rains.

#5 – Christian Petracca v Hawthorn

Saturday @ the MCG

  • Hawthorn #1 easiest this year for midfielders.
  • Coming off big numbers of 153 and 136

FLAG: No flag really… Had just that he only had 102 against the Hawks in round 5.

#6 – Sam Walsh v Collingwood

Sunday @ the MCG

  • Averages 128 in his last three, coming off 132
  • Collingwood #3 easiest this year
  • Without a tag he has gone 120+ in his last four

FLAG: If I was Collingwood, I’d bring Greenwood out of retirement to tag this gun. But geez, good luck to anyone if they try.

#7 – Zach Merrett v Kangaroos

Sunday @ Marvel Stadium

  • Form is hot with 115, 143 and 153
  • Scored 113 against the Roos in round 10
  • Roos have been easy this year

FLAG: In the last three weeks, only Josh Kelly (106), Libba (119), Bont (104) and even Touk Miller (112) have hit a ton against the Roos. No one over 120.

#8 – Jack Steele v Port Adelaide

Saturday @ Marvel Stadium

  • Averages 136 in his last five and is coming off 138 and 157.

FLAG: Averages only 102 in his last four at Marvel and the Power are tough (#2 hardest this year) giving up only two scores of 120 in the last five weeks (Touk and Petracca).

#9 – Tom Mitchell v Melbourne

Saturday @ the MCG

  • Averages 125 in his last five and had 117 last week
  • Melbourne #3 easiest in the last five weeks

FLAG: Although they are easy, Amon 130, Wines 105 and Taranto 115, Kelly 114 the best scorers in the last two weeks against the Demons. Viney also tagged Wines last week and maybe does it again to the pig. Mitchell had 103 when they met earlier this year.

#10 – Dayne Zorko v Richmond

Friday @ the MCG

  • Loves playing the Tigers with previous scores of 100, 103, 118, 101 and 135.
  • Good record at the MCG
  • Great VC option on Friday night and has a thumping ceiling on his day.

FLAG: 97 and 99 in his last two games – could explode here for a biggy.

WHY NOT THESE BLOKES?

Jack Macrae – Good record on the Suns with scores of 115, 128, 132 and 151, but hasn’t hit a ton in his last two. Should bounce back!

Max Gawn – Stiff not to make it, but his 108 last week was his best in his last three. Great numbers v Hawks though and even had 131 this year. Sits forward to much for my liking at the moment.

Clayton Oliver – averaging 92 in his last five but the Hawks did give the 5×100+ scores last week. Maybe he could find his form here.

Rory Laird – Eagles suck giving North 4×100+ (Stephenson 150, Simpkin 118) and Laird did have 125 against them in round 9. BUT… he has only hit 120+ three times this year.

Jordan De Goey – GOAT! Averaging 116 in his last three. Could be 120+.

Patrick Dangerfield – 73 on the Dockers last year and only 80 last week. Does have a juicy ceiling though.

Cameron Guthrie – Could be massive on Thursday night. Had 129 against the Dockers earlier last year.

Lachie Neale – Could rip the Tigers a new one coming off 116 last week. Pies had 4×115+ v the Tigers last week and Neale only had 80 against them in 2020.

Marcus Bontempelli – Suns #2 easiest this year and Bont has had 133, 108 and 129 against them in his last three. 94 and 104 in his last two keeps him out of the ten.

Ollie Wines – Had 129 on the Saints this year, his best against them in a career-eight games. Should probably be in my top-10 and has scored 151 and 91 at Marvel this year already.

Darcy Parish – tagged to 68 last week which means the Roos could activate Turner to do the same. He did have 144 against these guys in round 10 – but there is a small flag. If they let him off the hook, he could be anything.

Taylor Adams – Averaging 119 in his last three, Adams had 121 against the Blues this year, his first ton against them in his last four.

Tim Taranto – lowest score of 95 in his last 11 games, but the Swans can be tough. Timmy scored 91 against them earlier this year, his second lowest score for the year.

Do you need a Captain? Then Calvin will help you out. Don't want a Captain? Calvin will tell you anyway. The man who digs deep into stats will help you pick a great captain and give you plenty of Fantasy advice. Follow him on Twitter: @CalvinDT

18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Jay

    July 14, 2021 at 5:00 pm

    Thoughts on Dunkley vs GC? I’ve had the champ squirreled away on my draft bench for weeks now, will he jump straight in to big scores?

    • Blake

      July 14, 2021 at 5:52 pm

      In the VFL maybe

  2. Harry

    July 14, 2021 at 7:22 pm

    Laird most underrated captain option, has went under 115 once in his last 8 and even though his ceiling isn’t great 115 is an acceptable captain score.

    • Harry

      July 14, 2021 at 7:35 pm

      Also sorry to be negative but how is Hall 4 and Steele 8? Hall has went 100+ once in last 4 games and Steele has went 130+ in 4 of his last 5.

  3. Fellow

    July 14, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    Sorry but you can’t even trust this analysis any more. Especially as a top 10 format. Whilst the flag info and previous score info etc is relevant, it can no longer be trusted from this source. 6 weeks running with missed predictions bigger than the grand canyon is just unacceptable. Let someone else run captain data projections.

    • Cooper

      July 14, 2021 at 8:51 pm

      Matchups come into it, not just numbers

    • Cam

      July 15, 2021 at 1:51 am

      You can’t just pick captains, it’s all about making an educated guess and you do that with numbers, anyone else that did their research would have a similar top ten as no one can tell the future

    • George

      July 15, 2021 at 11:08 am

      Are you putting your hand up?
      How about going with your own gut instead of whining about someone else’s predictions?
      Ahh if only hindsight was a birthright.

    • Calvin

      July 15, 2021 at 1:48 pm

      this comment has made my day – brilliant

      • Bok

        July 15, 2021 at 3:00 pm

        Me too .

        Love what you bring to the table Calvin

      • Cooper

        July 17, 2021 at 4:41 pm

        Hopefully it does more than make your day Calvin. What the other bloke said was pretty much correct. Your captains haven’t really helped anyone this season, but at least your scale of hardness has somewhat saved you.

  4. Vin

    July 14, 2021 at 8:53 pm

    Great work Calvin for all your hard work mate..! I’ve been relying on your research for about 10 years now and have definitely made my team better over that time.

    Thanks heaps legend

    • Cam

      July 17, 2021 at 4:37 pm

      Could your nose get any further up someone’s clacker? Bloody hell that’s just sad.

  5. BONTI04

    July 14, 2021 at 9:16 pm

    not sure whether to get taylor adams or lachie neale.

  6. Tom

    July 15, 2021 at 1:12 pm

    Should I get Taylor Adams and bank the extra k or should I go to Petracca instead

  7. Thomas

    July 15, 2021 at 1:26 pm

    Or with 867k which midfielder should I grab

  8. Stan

    July 15, 2021 at 4:10 pm

    Nat Fyfe or Tim Kelly
    Any suggestions /

    • Ando the brain dead barfly

      July 18, 2021 at 7:42 am

      Go for someone less injury prone

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