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The Season

Weekend Forecast – Round 13

Bailey helps you get set for round 13.

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

 

Well we are heading into the 2nd bye week and have been given a big hurdle to deal with, with next round both West Coast and Richmond’s bye has been moved from round 13 to round 14. But we have been given an extra trade next we so we have 7 trades to get 18 soldiers on the park for our teams next week.

We had a cracking game last night (which I was lucky enough to go to) between Port Adelaide and Geelong, with the Cats taking the chocolates. It was actually quite enjoyable to watch, being a neutral supporter and having no fantasy players, wasn’t the same but still. Anyway, enough of the spill, what happened last night from a fantasy perspective?

 

Ollie Wines (116) – Top scorer in the game, and continued his great form with only 1 score under 100 in his last 8 games. If you did have this as VC, it is a tough call to make, and he would be the only one I would consider taking. If it were me, I would take the points. You just never know what can happen with injuries and potential tags you don’t see coming so banking points is always the smart play but if you want to take it on, we have some great options, as stated by our Captain Pirate, Calvin!

Jeremy Cameron (105) – Played a pivotal role in the Cats win, kicking 5 goals straight. If you own him in draft or Classic, congrats on the score but as we know, key forwards can always have a stinker but this was anything but.

Gary Rohan (102) – Another important forward for the Cats last night, also having 5 shots at goal with 3 goals 2 behinds.

Tom Hawkins (100) – Played his usual selfless role, kicking goals and setting up teammates, but could have had a massive score if he kicked a bit straighter with 4 goals 4 behinds to his name. Good score for draft owners.

Dan Houston (98) – Someone I was keeping a very close eye on and he didn’t disappoint. Against a Cats side where it is tough for defenders to score against, Dan got his way up to 98 points with 11 marks! And at around 570k due to some injury issues, he is a great underpriced option to bring in with a decent run coming up, with Gold Coast, Sydney, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda and Collingwood in his next 6.

Tom Stewart (88) – The ever-reliable Tommy Stewart always finds his way to at least 80-100 points. Love his work.

Mitch Duncan (71) – Not the score owners (especially new owners) of Mitch wanted to see on return. Positive for the rest of us is he has a breakeven of 153 and will pretty much be 800k or just below.

Patrick Dangerfield (51) – Well I dodged one here. I was tempted to bring Paddy in a week or two early but I am just glad I didn’t. Looked rusty after being out for 7 weeks. Same with Duncan though, had a high breakeven of 142 so will drop below 700k either next week or the week after.

So now, let’s take a look at the rest of the games coming up and the weekend forecast.

 

Sydney vs Hawthorn @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 9°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

 

OUT

Chad Warner (Injured)

Hawthorn

IN

Will Day, Jai Newcombe (Debut), Jaeger O’Meara

OUT

James Cousins (Omitted), Damon Greaves (Omitted), Mitch Lewis (Injured), Josh Morris (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Joel Amartey

After a solid season debut for Amartey last round he holds his spot for his 3rd career game tonight. With a breakeven of -8, he is a great option to bring in. I will however, much like a lot of other people, have to wait one more game as he has the bye next round and I and a lot of others have a heap of players on bye next week. If byes aren’t an issue, go ahead.

Jai Newcombe

The fantasy gods have given us a gift! After many of us were scrambling to find a rookie that had the bye last round, we get mid season recruit Jai Newcombe. At basement price 170k, I think he is pretty much a must have, and I think job security must be pretty good for coming straight into the team. He shouldn’t be out of place in the side either, with a mature body and playing for Box Hill in the VFL this season, where he has averaged 106. Is one of the 3 players I am bringing in this week.

Ned Reeves

One of the most popular downgrade targets of the week, and considering he has a breakeven of -21, it is a no brainer. Especially because we have all of the big dog rucks on bye next week (Gawn, Grundy, O’Brien, Darcy and Nic Nat), and he will help as cover next week while making a heap of money in the process. All aboard!

Tom Mitchell

The Pig has aways struggled against his former side, only scoring 1 ton (101) in his 5 career games, and averaging 91.2 against the Swans in those 5 games. With a breakeven of 133 as well, I think we may see a tough day for the Pig, but he is the Pig so I could very well be wrong on this.

Fremantle vs Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, mostly sunny

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Brett Bewley, Reece Conca, Alex Pearce, Brandon Walker (Debut), Joel Western (Debut)

OUT

Connor Blakely (Omitted), Brennan Cox (Injured), Nat Fyfe (Injured), Griffin Logue (Injured), Tobe Watson (Medi-Sub), Nathan Wilson (Suspension)

Gold Coast

IN

Jack Bowes, Matt Rowell

OUT

Rory Atkins (Omitted), Josh Corbett (Medi-Sub), Jy Farrar (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Joel Western/Brandon Walker

Interested to see how both of the Freo debutants go. As they have the round 14 bye, I doubt many people will bring them in, but this is a good week to see how they go and if they go well, and hold their spot, could be good downgrade options in round 15.

Matt Rowell

He’s back! Matty Rowell is back again for his first game since round one. All we want, not only as a fantasy community, but a footy community, is to see this young gun get a fair crack at it, and string some games together. Huge risk picking him up straight away and does have a breakeven of 126, it makes sense to wait and see how he goes. If we see good signs, I think he will be a highly traded in player next week. Let’s all hope because Matty Rowell around 500k, is a bargain!

Touk Miller

I am really interested to see if Rowell coming back will impact him or not. I don’t expect it to and I see the Touk Touk train to keep on rollin.

Malcolm Rosas

Another cheap rookie to hold his spot that has already had his bye. I think Newcombe is the better pick out of the 2, but if you need a rookie apart from Newcombe and either already have or are passing on Reeves, Rosas is about the only other real option. 180k is cheap but I don’t expect his scoring to be much more than 50.

St Kilda vs Adelaide @ Cazaly’s Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, mostly cloudy, 88% humidity

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Paul Hunter, Ben Long, Jack Lonie

OUT

Oscar Clavarino (Omitted), Jarryn Geary (Injured), Tim Membrey (Managed), Sebastian Ross (Managed)

Adelaide

IN

Sam Berry, Josh Worrell (Debut)

OUT

Nick Murray (Medi-Sub), Ronin O’Connor (Omitted), Lachlan Sholl (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Brad Crouch

His first game against his former side, it will be interesting to see how the Crows go about it against Brad. He has been good in recent weeks, 5 tons in his last 6 games with his season high 131 last week against the Swans.

Josh Worrell

Another debutant this round, and I feel like we have been waiting a while for Josh Worrell to debut for the Crows. At 170k, and a DEF/FWD, he presents as a great option. But similar to the Freo debutants, he has his bye in round 14. I would advise again, watch him this week, and if he scores well and holds his spot, will be another good option in round 15.

North Melbourne vs GWS @ Blundstone Arena

Weather Forecast

Around 10°C, cloudy with occasional rain showers

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Atu Bosenavulagi, Will Phillips, Jaidyn Stephenson, Robbie Tarrant, Tristan Xerri

OUT

Charlie Lazzaro (Medi-Sub), Connor Menadue (Omitted),

GWS

IN

Tanner Bruhn, Toby Greene, Adam Kennedy, Jake Stein, Matt De Boer

OUT

Matt Buntine (Omitted), Jake Riccardi (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Aaron Hall/Jack Ziebell

Now, I expect both Hall and Ziebell to have good games, but it will be interesting to see if and how Robbie Tarrant coming back affects the scoring of the 2. Tarrant has taken some kick ins in the past, which could help with more +6’s for Hall and Ziebell, or or could be less +3’s from kick ins. Let’s wait and see.

Lachie Whitfield

Now, as a coach who is looking to bring in Whitfield, I hope a) there is no rain (38% chance of rain during the day) and b) Bailey Scott gets dropped. They are my 2 worries about Whitfield, wet weather and a tag. Now showers are expected, but we were meant to have rain at the Adelaide Collingwood game last week and we didn’t have rain so we will have to wait and see I guess. If Scott holds his spot, which I expect him to, then Whitfield isn’t the absolute must have player in round 13. He also doesn’t have a good record against North Melbourne either, only averaging 71 in his 5 career games against them, clearly his worst team to play against. All of these things are concerning, but the next guy I talk about might be the guy instead I and other coaches look towards.

Josh Kelly

Both Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield are great buys in round 13, but I have my worries about Whitfield. Kelly however, I think is a great option. Since moving back into the midfield, 5 tons in a row. Still priced at only 739k and a breakeven of 96, I think he will continue to rise closer to 800k which is usually where he is priced.

Tim Taranto

Will be a very popular VC option going into one of Gawn or Oliver for many people. Having a great year, averaging 115.2 for the season, only dropping below 100 on 2 occasions, and 5 scores over 120.

West Coast vs Richmond @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 12°C, showers expected throughout the night

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Oscar Allen, Jarrod Brander, Liam Duggan, Josh J. Kennedy, Nathan Vardy

OUT

Brad Sheppard (Injured), Bailey J. Williams (Injured)

Richmond

IN

Kane Lambert, Will Martyn, Ben Miller (Debut), Hugo Ralphsmith

OUT

Riley Collier-Dawkins (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Shannon Hurn

If it wasn’t for his bye being moved to round 14, I think Hurn would have been talked about more. Without his injury affected game, he has only 1 score below 90, to go along with 3 tons averaging 100.2 for the season. Priced at 589k with a breakeven of 78, if he has a good week this week, would be a very intriguing option in round 15.

Luke Foley/Luke Edwards

Same as the Freo debutants and Josh Worrell for the Crows, Foley and Edwards both have the round 14 bye. The difference is they have played at least 1 game already. My one concern with these 2 is the Eagles have a heap of players due back within the next 3-4 weeks and with the bye mixed in, could be within 2 weeks after their bye. So keep an eye on both as they may be options after their bye.

Mabior Chol

If it weren’t for the bye in round 14 (same for so many other players from round 14) I would have been really considering him. Scored 97 and was the main ruck for the Tigers on the weekend which I thought we be the case. Nank is also due back within a couple of weeks after the bye so might be a similar situation with Ladhams and Lycett with borrowed time. If Nank is more than that away, and Chol scores well again, he will be priced around 400k and a great option in round 15 if so.

Melbourne vs Collingwood @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, cloudy early but expected decrease in cloud cover later in the day

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

Mitch Brown, Kade Chandler, Ed Langdon

OUT

 

Collingwood

IN

Mason Cox, Chris Mayne, Beau McCreery, Tôm Wilson

OUT

Brayden Sier (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Max Gawn

Up against Max Lynch with no Brodie Grundy, Gawny could be huge. 5 tons in a row, and an inexperienced ruckman against arguably the best ruck in the comp, massive score coming. Will be a hugely popular fall back captain on Monday arvo.

Clayton Oliver

As we say every week, the Pies give up a truckload of points, and I think Oliver will bounce back from his bad score by his standards last week (had to be the week I bring him in as well of course). Has had a really good record against Collingwood in his last 5, with 4 being tons and 1 score under 100 (a 98). A good POD captain choice if you go against Big Max.

Scott Pendlebury

A role change across half back and in the middle last week saw Pendles score his first ton since round 3. With Elliott back in the side and Mayne given a rest, Pendles went to half back and got a couple of +6’s and went into a few CBA’s (12 CBA’s of Collingwood’s 26). If this role continues of the weekend, and priced under 600k, will be an absolute bargain in round 15, and as a forward. Wow.

My Trades

Collier-Dawkins -> Newcombe

Jordon -> Reeves (DPP into Utility)

Sholl -> Whitfield/J Kelly or Parish

Same as last week, first 2 trades are pretty easy. Getting a heap of cash by off-loading RCD, who was dropped and has his bye next week, and Jimmy Jordon who also has his bye next week. I will bring in Newcombe and Reeves who I think are the 2 must have cash cows of the week, Reeves more so as they both had their bye last week so will play round 13 and round 14 as long as they hold their spot. Instead of Jordon, I could trade one of Lazzaro, Farrar, or Brockman but there is a small chance they could find a way into their sides next week (fingers crossed, everything crossed) and Jordon has the bye next week anyway. Sholl will be my 3 player to go, but am undecided on the premium to bring in for him. With the RCD and Jordon trades, I would have 521k to put on top of Sholl, meaning I can afford anyone I like. If Bailey Scott is dropped for North, then I think Whitfield is the easy answer. If Scott plays, that makes things more tricky. A potential tag, mixed with potential rain, that may make me think twice about Whitfield, meaning Josh Kelly is a more appealing option. However, as I would have 20 playing this week, I am strongly considering paying up for Darcy Parish. He is expensive, but he is the highest scoring player since round 6. And with me getting him, I would have a stacked midfield (Macrae, Parish, Taranto, Oliver, Merrett and Gaff) so that is appealing to me. Plus it will be a lot harder after the byes to get the big boys over 800k as we will be back to 2 trades. As I said though, if Scott is dropped, I get Whitfield and can think about chasing Parish or someone else next week.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 13!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang

I am a lover of all sports, especially the AFL. Some of the teams I support include the Adelaide Crows, Manchester United, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Rams just to name a few. I am also a big fan of fantasy sports, particularly AFL Fantasy and NFL Fantasy.

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Miyagi-san

    June 11, 2021 at 3:32 pm

    Nice one Bailey!

    Have 1 trade locked (Meek > Reeves) but am stuck on my next 2. Going to move on 2 of RCD/Powell/Jordon but unsure which 2?

    RCD – wont play this week, but I have 20. Wont fall in price before being traded next week either?

    Powell – will fall in price but also will play next week (currently have about 15/16 playing next week). Might be better for a rest?

    Jordon – on bye next week, but has a good match up this week which would likely see him score good points and not lose too much value? Then can trade next week?

    Any 2 will get me my preferred trades (Newcombe and Kelly). Any thoughts mate?

    • Aby Benny

      June 11, 2021 at 4:33 pm

      If you’ve held powell until now and don’t have 19+ next week I’d keep him for another week. He did just have a rest as well. I’d expect a good score for jordon cause of his matchup, but his breakeven is 95. I’d move on RC and jordon as they both anyway have byes next week.

    • Bailey

      June 11, 2021 at 4:36 pm

      Appreciate the support man. Out of the 3, RCD has to go as he has been dropped and misses next week, he might not even get back in the side with the Tigers at full strength. As for the other 2, it is a tough one. Because you only have 15/16 next week, I would make the tough call and trade Jordon and keep Powell. I think both will lose value this week, but Powell will be there for you next week. Plus maybe the rest of Powell will do him good as he played every game before the bye. And Newcombe and Kelly are great options 👍

      • Miyagi-san

        June 12, 2021 at 7:45 am

        Thanks Aby / Bailey!

        That was the way I was leaning anyway (Jordon/RCD) but still appreciate the feedback. 3rd trade was meek to Reeves, so i did all three early in the afternoon while I was able (over in NZ and no data roaming!). Suffice to say happy with Jai, stoked to have jelly… but could be tough for Reeves to now make it in for next week! Oh well, win some, lose some… good luck for the rest of the round!

        PS Bailey- this format rocks. Any chance of it becoming a weekly?

        • The Cricket

          June 13, 2021 at 4:14 pm

          Yep, it’s a shame about Reeves’s ankle! Sounds like he may have just rolled it at training on Thursday? Wish I’d known about it before the game .. would have reversed the trade and done something else. With Ceglar having such a good game it could be difficult for Reeves to get back into the 22. Quite a few of us will be parking him in the UTL spot and keeping our fingers crossed lol

  2. Anthony Clissold

    June 11, 2021 at 3:37 pm

    Go Crom

  3. EmeraldIllusion

    June 11, 2021 at 3:57 pm

    What an awesome write up, mate! So thorough and informative! Keep up the good work.

    • Bailey

      June 11, 2021 at 4:37 pm

      Appreciate the support man, means a lot 👊

  4. Tony

    June 11, 2021 at 4:20 pm

    Who’s worth getting this week-B Couch or petracca

    • Aby Benny

      June 11, 2021 at 4:33 pm

      Petracca, has the matchup against collingwood as well.

    • Bailey

      June 11, 2021 at 4:38 pm

      I would lean towards Petracca, with the Collingwood matchup this week, plus I think he has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Petracca has a bad game, you got an 80. Crouch has a bad game, you get a 40-50 score

  5. Belly

    June 11, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    Great write up Bailey, some great insights.
    Im also on the Reeves/Newcombe train, but am really stuck on my third trade, was always planning on getting in a premo and was pretty set on Whitfield, but keep seeing alarm bells and am worried i’ll drop all that $$$ and a get 45 out of him this week.
    I did have Wines under consideration but wasnt organised enough pre yesterdays game, option 3 was Titch who is as a big a worry as Whits is, anyone else you can give me any confidence in?
    I need them to play R13&14, already have Kelly and really need them to be under $800k.
    My fall back is bring in someone like Langford or Merrett this week and have 20 playing this week(including Rantall and Highmore though).

    • Bailey

      June 11, 2021 at 5:58 pm

      Yeah I am in the same boat as you. I still think Whitfield is the pick out of all of the options but if you wanted someone else, under 800k are Walsh, Mitchell, Ziebell, Hall or Docherty would be the options I would consider bringing in if you don’t have any of those

  6. Belly

    June 11, 2021 at 6:34 pm

    Thanks mate, I took a punt on Cripps last week so am reluctant to go Walsh as well, I have Hall and had Ziebell through his growth spurt earlier in the year and jumped off once he’d made his money. I like Doch but see him as a 95-105 player, where as Titch and Whitfield can go 120+ fairly regularly.
    So all things considered I think im sticking with Whitfield, even if this week isnt his best week he should be set and forget. Hope you go well this weekend.

  7. Marc Russell

    June 11, 2021 at 6:45 pm

    Reeves OUT lads…

  8. ree

    June 11, 2021 at 7:00 pm

    hall or kelly to trade in this week?

  9. Plugger

    June 12, 2021 at 7:06 pm

    High ore or who’ll on ground!

  10. Plugger

    June 12, 2021 at 7:08 pm

    Cheeses! spell checker! Highmore or Sholl on ground?

    • The Cricket

      June 13, 2021 at 4:23 pm

      “The man who invented predictive text has died.
      May he rust in piss.”

  11. Bec

    June 12, 2021 at 9:11 pm

    Imanaged to get Highmore on the ground with a bit of DPP, after having 6 in the back line got hall to FWD and played Highmore . Payed off, havin a great game, finally have a win with keeping some1

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

  12. Bec

    June 12, 2021 at 9:29 pm

    where has this Highmore been, nice time to do it in the byes

    from the girl who loves her feet slimed

  13. Plugger

    June 12, 2021 at 10:18 pm

    Cheeses, I put Sholl on the ground and Highmore (E) on the bench – but Sholl was never subbed on so by the skin if my teeth I get Highmore’s TON. Needed it against League leader. Whew . . .

    • Bec

      June 12, 2021 at 10:40 pm

      lucky boy Plugger, 1 of the few medical subs which hasnt been used this year.

      Think Highmore’s score was a surprise to every1

      from the girl who loves her feet slimed

  14. The Cricket

    June 13, 2021 at 4:28 pm

    Thanks for your article(s) Bailey 👍
    Works well as a place for chats as the round progresses! Keep it up please, it’s appreciated

  15. jay

    June 14, 2021 at 12:33 pm

    1656, with 7 to play for the Queens Bday game. At current rate, it looks like I will drop of Jai Newcombe’s 87 from 22…

    But expecting carnage next week.

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