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Trent’s Take: What should my trading strategy be over the next 3 weeks?

2020 winner Trent Sutcliffe shares his trading thoughts.

Traditionally, weeks 4-7 are about eliminating mid-pricers who are scoring rookie scores and upgrading rookies which are either beginning to meet their break evens or have been dropped. This year is no different. Plan trades for the next three weeks but use the emergency loophole and the rolling lockout to make your trading more effective.

You will have a collection of unwanted players who are absolutely stinking it up, for me it is Paddy Dow, Tom Green and Jordan Clark. Whilst in the rookies I have Paul Hunter and Miles Bergman who did not play Round 3. Draw up a list of rookies which will need to be culled by the end of Round 7 as they will either be dropped or have maxed out in cash. For me, the Hawthorn pair of Jacob Koschitzke and Tyler Brockman fit that bill and maybe Lloyd Meek as well.

Formulate a plan which eliminates as many of these players as possible and means by the end of Round 7-8 you have at least 3 more premiums and hopefully 3 more cash generators. Depending on the overall make up of your side, in Round 4 you will either double downgrade or downgrade one and upgrade to a premium (especially if you are trading Jarrod Witts). I strongly recommend against trading to a semi-premium or mid-pricer, it might work, and you’ll be a star (Darcy Parish), but if it fails your entire 3-4 weeks trading strategy is shot.

Round 4 is a great week to double downgrade mid-price spuds as they are already scoring rookie scores or less if you had Dow on field and even Parks scored more than Clark and Green was easily beaten by Scott from the Bulldogs. These guys must go and there are players with similar scoring potential and roughly the same job security: players like Parks, Robertson, Chapman, Waterman, and Perkins for example.

A quick word on using the rolling lockout and emergency loophole to maximize your score and shape your trading over the next few weeks. This is an option I am considering for Thursday night’s game:

Trade Dow to Waterman (or Perkins, but he is more cash), put the emergency on Waterman and leave Bergman on field. If Waterman scores 65+ and Bergman is not named, then he will stay in my side an extra week or two. If he plays, then I might switch him to the bench and play Rowe instead. You might be able to do this on various lines throughout the weekend (although it is risky to try and do it on more than one line).

I suspect there will be rookies who are going to get dropped or rested in Rounds 4-7 and using them as a loop against players who play early gives you an option to keep the dropped player for that week and therefore trade out another player, like a Green or Clark or soon to be dropped rookie from a later game in the round like Koschitzke or Brockman. For Round 4, Essendon and Sydney rookies on Thursday, Port’s Bergman on Friday night, Western Bulldogs with McNeil, and Scott on Saturday for example.

Also, now is the time if Hunter is not named in Round 4 to get a Ruckmen off utility as the flexibility of moving your team structure around in the upcoming rounds will be important. Even a sideways trade of Hunter to Robertson this week has benefits (assuming he is named).

Lastly, on trading strategy, if you can’t get to Grundy this week, you should be making plans to do so by Round 7-8 when Flynn’s price starts to level out. By then you might only need 350K, which is going a mid-pricer to a rookie and upgrading Flynn (unless you wish to keep Flynn as R3).

At this point in the week, I have roughly 2 options which are double downgrade or one down and one sideways,

Paddy Dow to Alec Waterman

Paul Hunter to Deven Robertson or Tom Green to Deven Robertson (around $470k in bank with option 2)

This allows you to go one up and one down on Round 5, for example Clark and Brockman or Stephenson and Bergman or whatever combination looks like it is underperforming and can be traded for the next Round 5 rookie and likely premium on that line who will hopefully finish in your team.

 

Trent Sutcliffe, coach of 'aluniesheis', won AFL Fantasy Classic in 2020, one of the most challenging seasons to date.

132 Comments

132 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Scott

    April 7, 2021 at 1:59 pm

    Thanks for the article Trent.
    I have Caldwell, Coniglio, Young and Witts to trade in the coming weeks. This week thinking Caldwell to Warner and Witts to Grundy but only leaves 13K to help upgrade Young and Cogs next week. Could do the first trade but leave Witts to next week. After that, it will be time to move on some rookies like Brockman, Scott and both defenders.
    Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 5:08 pm

      That is annoying. Caldwell because of the Thursday game is the first trade. Depending on your overall team you could trade down to a rookie and use the cash the give you options based on how your EME rookies go from your bench. If Flynn is R2, can you get wicks to UTI and use that as the basis for trading the best player on your worst line. For example, trade Witts to Macrae and move Brockman to UTI.

      • Avatar

        Scott

        April 7, 2021 at 8:31 pm

        I used Robertson last week in place of Caldwell so maybe could do the same and hope for similar score. Have Macrae, can get Witts to Utl but thinking Grundy will score just as well as a premium midfielder and will go up in price so should get now. Can get Young to Utl also so could use him next week for upgrade on worst line.

        • Aluniesheis

          Aluniesheis

          April 7, 2021 at 9:25 pm

          Witts to Grundy is without doubt a good trade.

  2. Avatar

    Newt

    April 7, 2021 at 2:20 pm

    Trading young and degoey. Should I go to Macrae and Idun or Cumming and Parish?

    • Avatar

      Jezza

      April 7, 2021 at 4:51 pm

      Macrae and Odin 100%

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 5:11 pm

      Always favour gun, otherwise double trade is just a few rounds into the future. Like many last year, I don’t trust Parish, especially in Sydney. Macrae and Idun. What is the points differential
      Macrae 110-115- idun 50-60 or 160-175
      Cumming 60-90 – Parish 70-110 or 130-200 so there is potential in option 2 but also risk, depends on what end of the spectrum because Macrae could go 140 and he is a VC and C every week.

      • Avatar

        Newt

        April 8, 2021 at 2:04 pm

        How about Tex and Cumming instead of Idun and Macrae? Purely for the cash gen.

        • Aluniesheis

          Aluniesheis

          April 8, 2021 at 2:30 pm

          Sure, a viable option, Tex has made most of his cash, maybe 100 K left and Idun probably a bit less than that. You are wanting Macrae at some point and a trade can be saved, but if you are to get Tex this is the last week that he is an option. They might average more (100 and 90 to 50 and 120) but that could be reversed also. But sure Tex for 3 weeks and and then upgrade.

  3. Avatar

    Vincenzo

    April 7, 2021 at 5:50 pm

    Hi great article. I’ve got enough cash to go Young up to Ridley but have just noticed Bowes same ave/total points ands 20 grand cheaper but doesn’t get talked about as much as Ridley. Have not seen one Essendon or Gold Coast game. What would you recommend if these two???? Points being my primary objective although I must say I think Bowes might also suit byes better. Cheers.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 6:08 pm

      Bowes has been exceptional and with Markov seems to be the main user in the backline, but Ridley is just like him with Hind like Markov (but just a bit better). Ridley against the Swans is my concern, but Ridley has had a good 2 years and Bowes has been growing, but has taken a big stride since becoming their main user. Overall, I’d trust Ridley to finish D1-6, Bowes I am not as sure about, but Bowes would be the better option if you want to go against the majority. Suns are moving the ball slower and this suits Bowes, so he has a sustainable scoring pattern by the looks of how the Suns are playing.

  4. Avatar

    Vincenzo

    April 7, 2021 at 6:17 pm

    Awesome thanks very much very helpful. Also if it’s not too much of an imposition. I want to go J.Clark to I.Cumming as opposed to down to a rookie. Risking a little bit of cash gen for points still leaves me 100 odd thou if I go Bowes. What do you think about this move ???

    • Avatar

      Vincenzo

      April 7, 2021 at 7:03 pm

      Just to clarify two trades this week young to bowes and Clark to Cummings.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 9:23 pm

      Yep it works, if your bench cover doesn’t get to thin. Although, Cumming could be outscored by Clark on any given week, doesn’t appear likely, but not out of the question. I was going to do that last week, but had to sell an injured player. It appears on current form there will be plenty of Ball heading Cumming’s way.

      I wouldn’t do it myself as you’ll be selling Cumming in 4-5 weeks anyway, but if it is a luxury trade.

  5. Avatar

    Daniel

    April 7, 2021 at 9:02 pm

    I’d like your thoughts on my current dilemma – I have Witts, Coniglio, Prestia and H Young all injured (what a week!). Do I still look at future cash generation e.g. bring in one premium and one rookie for the next couple of weeks? Or do I bring in two premiums this week to fill the gaps?

    I’m thinking Witts to Grundy and Prestia to Sloane this week.

    Cheers in advance.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 9:20 pm

      That is tough. It depends on your bench cover for Young. But those trades are good trades. However, Flynn as cover at F2 could allow you to sell Cogs and Prestia. Look for a cash grab at a mid pricer and go a premo. What about Redden now with Shuey out for example. Otherwise go down to a rookie an up to an uber premo like Macrae.

  6. Avatar

    CJ

    April 7, 2021 at 9:45 pm

    You mentioned you still have Tom green in your team. Will you hold for one more week now that he might get more inside mid time or still a trade?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 7, 2021 at 10:21 pm

      All week my plan has been to trade, but it will come down to teams- I also have Hunter, Brockman and Kozzie and if both Hawks are out I will probably get one of them out first and see if Green can score without De Boer and Cogs. I am doubtful, he didn’t score when they missed the second half. He still played forward. I would like to go Green to Tex or Green to a fwd rookie via DPP.

      I cannot understand Cameron’s faith in Hopper and Hopper and Green are like opposing magnets- never near each other at CBA’s. I fear Cameron will just replace Cogs with Kelly at CBA and rotate others slightly more, including Green but not enough to make a difference. But I might be forced to at least have a look this week even though I really don’t want to. This is also based on getting rid of Dow as the first trade.

      • Avatar

        Phteven

        April 8, 2021 at 12:47 pm

        I am using Dow on the for a few weeks as I have too much carnage on the field and the potential of Brockman and Komi being dropped. Dow might still make coin. Hopefully.

  7. Avatar

    James

    April 8, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    With selwood out this week, should i keep jordan clark for one more week?

    I want to trade orazio/clark out for chapman or burgess with brockman out for tex/hind or robertson

  8. Avatar

    ShredderPigs

    April 10, 2021 at 8:17 am

    Any advice on what to do with Witts and Young? Especially now that Flynn is out. I have Meek as a UTL and possible option. I will have $1,030,000 to shop. Ideas: 1. Burgees/Parks and Marshall. 2. McEvoy and Cumming. 3. Tex and Cumming. 4. Burgees and Tex 251k left. 5. Cumming and Robertson 340k left. (Last 3 Meek UTL option).

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 10, 2021 at 10:53 am

      You need to avoid a donut, Longmuir said he is going to play 2 rucks and Treacy up forward. So an option is Meek on ground and hopeful he gets 50. VC someone early and use Flynn as loophole. This means Witts is a trade and so is Young. Young can wait until after teams are announced unless you want to grab Burgess or Parks. Certainly Marshall is unique, but with a foot injury to a ruckmen, I’d want to see him play. Can you go Grundy/ Burgess or Treacy and play Meek on ground. Otherwise Tex and Cumming provides score and cash, but avoid donut is critical in the planning.

      • Avatar

        ShredderPigs

        April 10, 2021 at 12:35 pm

        Thanks heaps mate. I really appreciate your advice, time and effort. Legend 🤙🏽

        • Avatar

          ShredderPigs

          April 10, 2021 at 1:01 pm

          Is it worth getting Briggs in as a defender hoping that he will play this season. That gives me the option of getting in Grundy.

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